2019 Miami Real Estate Market Forecast: Condo Boom or Bust?

2019 Miami Real Estate Market Forecast: Condo Boom or Bust?

Dec 26, 2018 December 26, 2018

Opportunity Market

The Miami condo market is heavy in inventory, which basically means lots of competition of people trying to sell their properties. Buyer demand is strong, but there are lots of places to choose from which puts buyers in the driver seat. But the buyers that are BOLD are the ones that will get great deals in this market. I am already seeing properties selling at 10-15-20% below listing price, and the buyers that picked those up only got them because they made offers instead of taking things at face value. That’s why I am calling this an “opportunity market”. Opportunities are there, but only for people who are seeking them and not letting little things like asking prices get in their way of trying. Buyers that pick up properties in this market get the advantage of having lots of options to choose from. Buyers that wait for the market to flatten out or start going up will end up being able to participate in lower prices but may not get the choice of the units that they really want and will be left with the leftovers.

Inventory Problems Will Mostly Subside by End of 2019

Barring any general global or national economic challenge, the current Miami condo inventory glut will diminish by the end of 2019 or first quarter of 2020, bringing balance back to the market. In other words, if inventory gets gobbled up, buyers will no longer be in control as they have been this year and will be for much of 2019.

Who Will Drive the Condo Market?

While the boom of 2010-2015 was driven by foreign nationals primarily from Latin America but also from Europe and other continents, the past couple of years and probably 2019 will still be fueled by domestic buyers, primarily from the northeastern U.S.

On the sell side, the drivers of the market will likely be the same pre-construction buyers between 2015-2018 who purchased in speculation of rising prices, who now are caught in a market where they are likely upside down and possibly with a mortgage that may not cover their monthly carrying costs. Many of them will likely want to sell, and they will have to be flexible with their prices. Also, there are many owners who bought before the market crash of 2008 caused by the global financial crisis who are ready to sell now. They waited long enough to see their property values go way down and then way up, to now find that they are still floating around a similar or lower price than when they bought. They have held on long enough to the investment (10+ years is not a short period of time to hold an investment) and are ready to move on.

Real Estate Predictions by Price Point and Neighborhood

Not all neighborhoods are alike, as most of the new condo construction was focused in Edgewater, Downtown Miami and Brickell. So neighborhoods like Coconut Grove, Coral Gables and South Beach are going to be a bit more stable overall. That said, there is a lot of luxury ($1M+) condo inventory even in those neighborhoods, and so there will inevitably be downward price pressure in 2019 overall, with Greater Downtown Miami seeing the most acute price pressure.

There are some price points that have already suffered a few percent declines but I don’t believe there is much more room for them to go down. 1-brs in the 100-250K range and 2-brs in the 250-350K range may still get a tiny bit of downward pressure but not much. The properties where there are going to be lots of opportunities are the $400K+ 1 bedrooms and $600K+ 2-bedrooms. There were just too many of those built in this latest condo boom, and it is going to take at least another 12 months to clear out the glut of those new construction condo resales. And there will be lots of opportunities for the bold buyer.

How is the New Condo Development Market and Who is Still Building?

Most of the condo developers that still have not started construction or are still in the beginning stages of construction are outsiders, meaning developers that don’t have long track records of building in Miami, or by smaller developers building more boutique style buildings in lower density neighborhoods like North Bay Village. The likes of Jorge Perez don’t have any condo projects in the pipeline and have in fact flown the nest to other cities in Latin America and the U.S. until there is a bigger appetite for new condos here in Miami.

Contact Sep Niakan
Founder, Condoblackbook.com & Owner/Broker, HB Roswell Realty
(786) 930-4220
contact@condoblackbook.com
Request Info
By sending you agree to CondoBlackBook's Terms of Use

Recent Posts

The Most Luxurious Condo Buildings in Venetian Islands
Real Estate News The Most Luxurious Condo Buildings in Venetian Islands
If you’ve always wondered which top-of-the-line luxuries are available in the exclusive Venetian Islands, then this is the list for you. We’ve ranked the Top 5 Most Luxurious Condo Buildings in Miami Beach’s Venetian Islands, which also happen to be the most expensive buildings of this super desirable neighborhood. Read on to find out what kind of amenities these top-class residences provide and which one made it to number 1… Why Choose the Venetian Islands? This island retreat is one of the most sought-after addresses in Miami Beach. Residents not only get to relish the joys, views and privacy of island living, but they’re also perfectly positioned for a short drive to South Beach and Downtown on either side via the Venetian Causeway. Secluded living and the option to easily dive into all the action in a matter of minutes makes Venetian Island properties some of the most prized in Miami, so much so that they’re also popular with the celebrities for their sheer exclusivity (in this...
Miami’s Most Artsy Condo Buildings
Real Estate News Miami’s Most Artsy Condo Buildings
Have you ever wondered which condos in Miami have amazing art inside? Well, as Art Basel kicks off this week, turning Miami into a playground for the who’s who of the international art world, we’re honoring the condos that honor the art. With over 4,000 artists expected to be showcased this year, the city is swarming with critics, collectors, curators, celebrities, and art and architecture lovers of every caliber. So in the spirit of this world-famous art festival, here’s seven of the Most Artsy Condo Buildings that are part of the creative narrative in Miami. Paramount Miami WorldCenter 900 NE 1st Avenue, Downtown Miami The Centerpiece: PAL-V, the flying car - a “Miami 2020 and Beyond” exhibit Although this is a 2019-only exhibit, it deserves a special mention. Complementing the amenity-rich tower’s 58th floor Skyport, PAL-V (Personal Air Landing Vehicle), a prototype of the world’s first flying car, will be on display during Art Week. Paramount is channeling the master himself,...
6 Fun Things to do During Miami Art Week that aren’t Art
Opinions and Advice 6 Fun Things to do During Miami Art Week that aren’t Art
Miami Art Week has become one of Miami's most dynamic, exciting, and wildly popular events, drawing millions of international visitors yearly, and showcasing the most cutting edge contemporary art from around the world from Art Basel and the multitude of fairs. While getting a healthy dose of art-watching is a wonderful way to stimulate your intellect and awaken your creative sensibilities, it's also important to take some healthy time away from all of that aesthetic stimulation. Below we've listed 6 fun things to enjoy during Miami Art Week that don't require you to try to understand anything abstract. Eat and DrinkEven if you're not that interested in the art, you can definitely enjoy all of the social activities and VIP parties that Miami Art Week brings to town. One of my personal favorite Art Week activities is savoring the tasty brunches that many of our local art spaces serve up during this special time of year. In particular, I can't wait to chow down at the free Creole...
Need a little Drama in Your Life? Theater is Alive and Thriving in Miami!
Lifestyle Need a little Drama in Your Life? Theater is Alive and Thriving in Miami!
One of the things that makes a big city special is its bounty of Arts & Culture offerings.  While many associate Miami with sunny beaches, glam fashion, and all-night-party culture, the Magic City actually has quite a sophisticated artistic life. In addition to the now-established December Art Week, including renowned Art Basel, Miami is home to several theatre companies and cultural venues that keep the performing arts scene thriving for both residents and visitors year round. To help you get to know the local theater scene, here are some of Miami’s most respected and celebrated theater companies and presenters, as well as the locales (some historic) where you can enjoy great theater in Miami! Arca Images One of Miami’s premier theater companies, Arca Images produces bilingual theater with simultaneous interpretation so that both English and Spanish-speaking audiences can enjoy the same show at the same time. Arca’s resident playwright is Pulitzer Prize winner Nilo Cruz, who...
Miami’s Can’t-Miss Holiday Events – Art Basel to New Year’s Eve Celebrations
Lifestyle Miami’s Can’t-Miss Holiday Events – Art Basel to New Year’s Eve Celebrations
"It’s the most wonderful time of the year," and Miami has turned into a magical wonderland once again. From the annual cheer at Santa’s Enchanted Forest to brand-new utopias like Fairchild’s NightGarden, there’s much to enjoy and marvel at this holiday season. The Nutcracker is on as usual and the legendary Art Basel is back in town, bringing with it a fine collection of art, artists, glamor, and parties. There’s also plenty of other events lined up for a bright and beautiful Hanukkah, Christmas, and New Year’s Eve. Read on to discover the complete list:   Miami Arts & Heritage Months: December 1, 2019 – January 31, 2020 Various venues across Miami Whether you’re visiting from out of town or are a local, the art and heritage months from the Miami Temptations Program provide a great window into the diversity of the Magic City. Explore our most culturally diverse communities with ‘Buy One, Get One Free’ tours, special discounts and absolutely free visits. Find the complete list...
The Most Luxurious Condo Buildings in South Beach
Opinions and Advice The Most Luxurious Condo Buildings in South Beach
South Beach is one of the most sought-after destination beaches in the world. So, living in a vacation hotspot naturally comes with a price. To top that, developers have crafted some of the most luxurious homes to appeal to the global elite frequenting the beach, tempting them to set up a permanent residence here. Below is our list of the 5 most luxurious, hence expensive, condo buildings in South Beach. Why Choose South Beach? South Beach has always been known for its hot party vibe and fun beaches. But only those who have lived here know that it’s also a beautifully diverse neighborhood to build a life in. Living in South Beach, residents get easy access to streets lined with historic, pastel-hued Art Deco buildings, top-notch dining options, the most amazing nightclubs in Miami, a shopping scene that will compel you outdoors, and year-round events. The water-bound neighborhood also ranks #1 on our 11 most walkable neighborhoods in Miami Beach study as well as the Miami Beach...