2019 Miami Real Estate Market Forecast: Condo Boom or Bust?

2019 Miami Real Estate Market Forecast: Condo Boom or Bust?

Dec 26, 2018 December 26, 2018

Opportunity Market

The Miami condo market is heavy in inventory, which basically means lots of competition of people trying to sell their properties. Buyer demand is strong, but there are lots of places to choose from which puts buyers in the driver seat. But the buyers that are BOLD are the ones that will get great deals in this market. I am already seeing properties selling at 10-15-20% below listing price, and the buyers that picked those up only got them because they made offers instead of taking things at face value. That’s why I am calling this an “opportunity market”. Opportunities are there, but only for people who are seeking them and not letting little things like asking prices get in their way of trying. Buyers that pick up properties in this market get the advantage of having lots of options to choose from. Buyers that wait for the market to flatten out or start going up will end up being able to participate in lower prices but may not get the choice of the units that they really want and will be left with the leftovers.

Inventory Problems Will Mostly Subside by End of 2019

Barring any general global or national economic challenge, the current Miami condo inventory glut will diminish by the end of 2019 or first quarter of 2020, bringing balance back to the market. In other words, if inventory gets gobbled up, buyers will no longer be in control as they have been this year and will be for much of 2019.

Who Will Drive the Condo Market?

While the boom of 2010-2015 was driven by foreign nationals primarily from Latin America but also from Europe and other continents, the past couple of years and probably 2019 will still be fueled by domestic buyers, primarily from the northeastern U.S.

On the sell side, the drivers of the market will likely be the same pre-construction buyers between 2015-2018 who purchased in speculation of rising prices, who now are caught in a market where they are likely upside down and possibly with a mortgage that may not cover their monthly carrying costs. Many of them will likely want to sell, and they will have to be flexible with their prices. Also, there are many owners who bought before the market crash of 2008 caused by the global financial crisis who are ready to sell now. They waited long enough to see their property values go way down and then way up, to now find that they are still floating around a similar or lower price than when they bought. They have held on long enough to the investment (10+ years is not a short period of time to hold an investment) and are ready to move on.

Real Estate Predictions by Price Point and Neighborhood

Not all neighborhoods are alike, as most of the new condo construction was focused in Edgewater, Downtown Miami and Brickell. So neighborhoods like Coconut Grove, Coral Gables and South Beach are going to be a bit more stable overall. That said, there is a lot of luxury ($1M+) condo inventory even in those neighborhoods, and so there will inevitably be downward price pressure in 2019 overall, with Greater Downtown Miami seeing the most acute price pressure.

There are some price points that have already suffered a few percent declines but I don’t believe there is much more room for them to go down. 1-brs in the 100-250K range and 2-brs in the 250-350K range may still get a tiny bit of downward pressure but not much. The properties where there are going to be lots of opportunities are the $400K+ 1 bedrooms and $600K+ 2-bedrooms. There were just too many of those built in this latest condo boom, and it is going to take at least another 12 months to clear out the glut of those new construction condo resales. And there will be lots of opportunities for the bold buyer.

How is the New Condo Development Market and Who is Still Building?

Most of the condo developers that still have not started construction or are still in the beginning stages of construction are outsiders, meaning developers that don’t have long track records of building in Miami, or by smaller developers building more boutique style buildings in lower density neighborhoods like North Bay Village. The likes of Jorge Perez don’t have any condo projects in the pipeline and have in fact flown the nest to other cities in Latin America and the U.S. until there is a bigger appetite for new condos here in Miami.

Contact Us
Sep Niakan
Broker / Team Lead
(305) 697-7667
sep@blackbookproperties.com
Request Info
By sending you agree to CondoBlackBook's Terms of Use

Your Miami Condo Awaits

Recent Posts

Pre-Construction Condo Spotlight: La Baia in Bay Harbor Islands
Preconstruction Pre-Construction Condo Spotlight: La Baia in Bay Harbor Islands
Looking to bring the same transformative change to Bay Harbor Islands as he did in the South of Fifth neighborhood in South Beach with the iconic Continuum Condo Towers, developer Ian Bruce Eichner launched sales for La Baia residences in October 2021. The ultra-luxury La Baia will be a bayfront, boutique condo community featuring only 68 plush residences and its own 20-boat private marina. La Baia: A Waterfront Enclave of Luxury in Miami’s Northern Islands Crafting a new language of bespoke living on the water, La Baia condo residences will be tailored to fit Bay Harbor Islands’ tranquil ambiance. Designed by Revuelta Architecture, the stylish glass building will rise only 8 stories with a total of 68 luxury residences. Big on space, the one- to four-bedroom units at La Baia will range from 1,125 to 2,500 square feet in size. Owing to the Bay Harbor waterfront setting and expansive balconies, all La Baia residents will be able to enjoy unobstructed views of Biscayne Bay, Bal...
Introducing Downtown Miami’s Okan Tower - Luxury Miami Condos
Preconstruction Introducing Downtown Miami’s Okan Tower - Luxury Miami Condos
Meet Downtown Miami’s latest supertall condo tower that is sure to become an icon of the Magic City’s skyline for years to come - Okan Tower. With sales relaunched in November 2021 and buyers going straight to contract, after putting the project on hold, Turkish developer Okan Group is determined to make up for lost time. Back in action with revamped floor plans and the addition of an all-weather, glass-enclosed rooftop deck and observatory, the Okan Tower will feature 70 stories of luxury Sky Residences, world-class amenities, and 5-star Hilton Hotel & Resort. The Okan Residences Experience - Unfolding the Tulip Tower of Miami On track for a June 2022 opening, the condo-hotel marks Turkey-based Okan Group’s first development in the U.S. Designed by the Coral Gables-based Behar Font & Partners (the architects behind Quadro), the glass tower will feature a tulip-inspired façade as an ode to Turkey’s national flower. Certain to stand out on Downtown’s skyline, the...
Video: Take a Walking Tour of Edgewater, Miami
Lifestyle Video: Take a Walking Tour of Edgewater, Miami
Having spent almost 17 years in this mainly residential locale, Blackbook Properties’ luxury condo expert Sep Niakan takes you on his bright and sunny morning walk through this Edgewater, Miami, one of the city’s most popular waterfront neighborhoods.   Filmed in December, with a balmy winter morning temperature of 79° F/ 26° C, this scenic walking tour takes you through Margaret Pace Park and onto the Venetian Causeway. Besides being popular among walkers, joggers, and runners, the bayfront Margaret Pace Park is also a hot favorite among dog lovers, picnickers, and sports enthusiasts. The 8-acre park features two lighted tennis hard courts, two sand volleyball courts, one basketball court, personal fitness equipment, a gated playground, and more. The Venetian Causeway connects the mainland to Miami Beach, and again, makes a scenic seaside escape to clear your mind or simply absorb the sights and sounds of Miami. Watch the video to walk along. If you want see available units...
Miami Condo Development Guide: 52 New Pre-Construction Projects in 2021
Real Estate News Miami Condo Development Guide: 52 New Pre-Construction Projects in 2021
It’s a trend we’ve been talking about since the last quarter of 2020 - waves of buyers are contributing to one of the biggest real estate booms in Miami history. As individuals and businesses escape high tax states like New York and California, and have the freedom to work from any location, luxury condo developers in Miami are announcing new project after new project.   Miami condo developers announced more than 52 new and relaunched condo projects last year in 2021. In an attempt to appeal to a wide range of new residents, each new project aims to be taller, more luxurious, and offer the most exciting set of amenities imaginable, and could bring more than 10,000 residential units to Miami over the next few years. With the real estate market in Miami in one of its most lucrative cycles yet, here’s a look at the latest condo projects proposed in Miami in 2021: New Miami Condo Development Projects 2021 - Table of Contents New Downtown Miami Condo Development...
Get to Know Brickell, Miami: Comparing North Brickell vs South Brickell vs Brickell Key
Real Estate News Get to Know Brickell, Miami: Comparing North Brickell vs South Brickell vs Brickell Key
Brickell is one of Miami’s most desirable and popular neighborhoods, known the world over. Starting at the junction of the Miami River and Biscayne Bay, extending from Downtown Miami south along the water to the Rickenbacker Causeway that leads to Key Biscayne, Brickell is now known as the “Manhattan of the South.”  Indeed, Brickell is one of the world’s most important international financial hubs, home to many transnational companies and professionals from around the world. But Brickell is more than just Miami’s Financial District and the largest global banking center in the US south of New York. It’s an ultimate live, work, and play destination, and many celebrities have made their home in Brickell, including such Latin pop icons as Luis Miguel, Jennifer Lopez, and the late José José, as well as salsa legend Marc Anthony. To really get to know Brickell, and also know where you might want to live, Brickell actually consists of subdivisions that exist as distinctly different...
Video: Waldorf Astoria Residences, New Heights of Luxury Comes to Miami
Preconstruction Video: Waldorf Astoria Residences, New Heights of Luxury Comes to Miami
Combining the luxuries of New York City’s oldest hotel brand with Miami's first residential supertall tower, the Waldorf Astoria Residences Miami will transcend and transform luxurious living in Miami – all in the heart of Downtown. Moreover, a joint venture between the developers (PMG) and city will including expanding the green spaces in front of the luxury tower along Biscayne Boulevard, transforming the main boulevard of the Miami.  Waldorf Astoria Residences will be the tallest building south of Manhattan, transcending the skyline here and the heights of Miami luxury as we know it today.  Watch the video for more information.   Waldorf Astoria Residences Miami Key Details Groundbreaking: Early 2022 ​​Completion: 2025 Architecture by: Carlos Ott (conceptual artist) & Sieger Suarez (Miami’s award-winning architects). Designed to look like 9 offset crystal cubes, this sculptural condo-hotel is set to redefine Miami’s skyline. Interiors by: San Francisco’s...