With annual sales up 1.5 times than those in pre-pandemic years and Q4 2023 outperforming sales from comparable quarters in 2019 and earlier, the luxury housing market in Miami Beach closed the year strong. Reporting a modest price growth, with luxury condos selling at a relatively faster pace, and stable inventory, this beachside market has matured to new parameters, bucking national housing trends.

In 2023, Surfside & Bal Harbour emerged as the strongest market in Miami Beach, packing a one-two punch with positive annual sales growth and leading price gains. Fisher Island continued as the most expensive zip code in all of Miami. And, the modest market of Mid and North Beach emerged as the fastest selling. 

Read on for more year-over-year insights in our exclusive and detailed analysis on how each Miami Beach neighborhood fared against each other, as well as against the overall Miami luxury condo market in Q4 2023 as well as on an annual basis in 2023.

For this report, we've included the sub-neighborhoods of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Sunny Isles Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, and Fisher Island as part of our Miami Beach grouping. Also, this luxury condo submarket report only features properties priced at $1 million and above.

2023 Annual Miami Beach + Sub-neighborhood Luxury Condo Market Highlights:

• Annual Sales are down 34.5% compared to 2022 but still 1.5 times higher compared to pre-pandemic years.
• Winners: Surfside & Bal Harbour topped popularity charts, emerging as the most resilient markets in Miami Beach with the least negative impact (-28%) on 2023-over-2022 sales growth.
• Annual Price per Square Foot is flat at $1,087 in the 2023-over-2022 analysis.
• Winner: Surfside & Bal Harbour led price growth in Miami Beach with the highest percentage gains in Price per Square Foot (3.5%), offering maximum value to sellers.
• Annual Days on Market is flat at 77 days in the 2023-over-2022 analysis.
• Winner: Fisher Island remained the most expensive neighborhood of 2023 with a median price of $1,932/sq. ft.
• 2023 closed as a buyer's market (in theory) but offered equal opportunities for sellers as well.

Q4 2023 – Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Highlights:

• Sales are flat year-over-year but still higher than any pre-pandemic fourth quarter.
• 12-month sales trendline downshifted from positive in Q3 to negative in Q4 2023.
• Price per Square Foot is flat year-over-year at $1,133 and close to a record high.
• Days on Market are down 6.3% year-over-year.
• Inventory is up 11.1% year-over-year to 20 months.

Q4 2023 – Miami Beach Sub-neighborhood Highlights:

• Winner: Surfside & Bal Harbour (combined) emerged as the strongest market in Miami Beach, reporting 22% growth in year-over-year sales.
• The 12-month Sales Trendline is negative across the board.
• Winner: Surfside & Bal Harbour condos offered maximum value to sellers in Miami Beach with the highest percentage gains (55%) in year-over-year Price per Square Foot.
• Winner: Fisher Island continued to be the most expensive neighborhood in all of Miami in Q4 2023, with a median price of $1,854/Sq. Ft.
• Winner: Fisher Island also reported the highest Median Sales Price in Miami overall at $4.3 million.
• Winner: Mid and North Beach emerged as Miami Beach's fastest-selling market, with condos taking only 54 days to sell on average.
• South Beach plus Surfside & Bal Harbour reported the lowest year-end inventory (17 months each) in Miami Beach.
• Sunny Isles Beach posted the highest year-end inventory (21 months) in Miami Beach.

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2023 YoY (Number of sales)

Miami Beach Overall Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2023 YoY (Median Sale Price)

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2023 YoY (Median Sales Price / Sq. Ft.)

— Table of Contents

1. Overall Q4 2023 Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
2. Q4 2023 South Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
3. Q4 2023 Mid and North Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
4. Q4 2023 Surfside & Bal Harbour Luxury Condo Market Trends
5. Q4 2023 Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
6. Q4 2023 Fisher Island Luxury Condo Market Trends
7. Conclusion - Q4 2023 Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Report
   
   

— 1. Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends

1.1. Miami Beach Luxury Condo Sales: Down Annually, Flat Q4 YoY

Q4 2023 Sales flat year-over-year — Higher than any pre-pandemic fourth quarter (2019 & before)

Even as the luxury housing market slowed down over winter (as it typically does every year), luxury condos in Miami Beach reported flat year-over-year sales, echoing the overall Miami trend noted in our luxury condo market report for Q4 2023. As real estate experts, we recommend reading this as positive, since volumes match those from Q4 2022, a period when the luxury housing market started normalizing after one of its most supercharged cycles in recent history.

Below are the key Q4 2023 Sales Statistics for Miami Beach:

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales stayed flat year-over-year, adjusting marginally by 0.6%, up a notch from 155 in Q4 last year to 156 for the same quarter in 2023. (Fig.1.1)
• What's worth noting is that Q4 2023 sales were higher compared to any fourth quarter recorded before the pandemic (2019 and earlier). This confirms that the luxury condo market in Miami Beach has matured beyond pre-pandemic parameters and has been able to maintain its figures. (Fig. 2.1)
• Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Sales declined by 18.8% quarter-over-quarter, down from 192 in the previous quarter to 156 sales in Q4 2023. (Fig. 1)
• Sunny Isles Beach continued as the highest volume contributor for the eighth quarter in a row, reporting a total of 54 sales in Q4 2023.
• Further, Surfside & Bal Harbour emerged as the strongest market in this beachside grouping, reporting the highest percentage growth in year-over-year sales (22% YoY).
• With volumes expectedly declining towards the end of 2023, Miami Beach's neighborhoods closed the year soft. However, as real estate experts, we anticipate that the market will pick up pace in spring 2024 as the high season approaches, keeping the market in equilibrium by taking away a significant amount of inventory.

Looking into the Monthly Sales Trends of Fig. 2.2, it is evident that even though the market paced down gradually over the fourth quarter, it managed to sustain levels acquired over the past two years:

• October 2023 closed with 58 sales, down from 67 sales in the same month last year.
• November closed with 52 luxury condo sales, up from 49 in the same month of 2022.
• December closed with 46 sales, up from 39 in the same month a year ago.

Annual Sales down 34.5% – Negative Trendline

Even as the market continued stabilizing after the record-shattering 2021, Miami Beach closed the year on a robust note, reporting nearly 1.5 times its pre-pandemic sales.

Annual Sales Statistics – Miami Beach

• 2023 vs 2022. Sales declined 34.5%, down from 1,258 annual sales in 2022 to 824 in 2023. (Fig. 1a)
• With annual sales surpassing those from 2019 (507 total sales), 2018 (481 total sales), and before, the luxury housing market in Miami Beach has maintained the growth it acquired after the pandemic. (Fig 2.1)

As mentioned above, with the market expectedly cooling over the final quarter of the year, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 2.3 downshifted into a negative trajectory in Q4 2023 from a positive curve in Q3 2023.

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2023 - Fig. 2.1

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2023 - Fig. 2.2

Miami Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

1.2. Miami Beach Luxury Condo Prices: Flat Annually + Q4 YoY

Annual Price/Sq. Ft. flat at $1,087 – Median Sales Price flat

Partly consistent with the overall Miami trend of flat year-over-year price per square foot and Median Price, luxury condos in Miami Beach (collectively) reported good returns with the following Annual Price Stats (Fig. 1a):

• 2023 vs 2022. Price per Square Foot stayed flat, adjusting by -1.4%, marginally down from $1,103 in 2022 to $1,087 in 2023.
• Median Sales Price declined 5%, down from $2,000,000 in 2022 to $1,900,000 in 2023.

Q4 2023 Price per Sq. Ft. flat at $1,133 – Median Price up year-over-year

Deviating slightly from the overall Miami market trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and Median Price, luxury condos in Miami Beach reported the following Price Stats in Q4 2023:

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per Square Foot stayed flat, adjusting only -0.6%, marginally down from $1,139 in Q4 last year to $1,133 for the comparable quarter of 2023. (Fig. 1.1)
• Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Price per Square Foot increased 2.3%, up from $1,107 in the previous quarter to $1,133 in Q4. (Fig. 1)
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Median Sales Price increased 3.8%, up from $2,000,000 in Q4 last year to $2,076,000 for the comparable quarter of 2023. (Fig. 1.1)
• A look at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 3), shows that the Price per Square Foot closed at its second-highest level ever – confirming great market health and excellent value for sellers in this beach grouping.

Miami Beach Quarterly Sales Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 3

1.3. Miami Beach Days on Market: Flat Annually, Down Q4 YoY

Days on Market flat on annual basis and down 6.3% 4Q23-over-4Q22

Deviating partly from the overall Miami trend of an increase in 2023-over-2022 days and a decline in year-over-year numbers in Q4 2023, Miami Beach (collectively) reported the following Days on Market (DOM) statistics:

• 2023 vs 2022. Luxury condos spent just 1 less day on the market compared to 2022, reporting a negligible change in year-over-year DOM. (Fig. 1a)
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Luxury condos spent 5 fewer days on the market compared to Q4 2022, reporting a 6.3% decrease in year-over-year stats. (Fig. 1.1)
• Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Luxury condos spent 9 fewer days on the market compared to Q3 2023, recording a 10.8% decline in quarter-over-quarter DOM. (Fig. 1)
• What's worth noting is that luxury condos took about 2.5 months to sell (74 days in Q4 2023 and 77 days on average in 2023), in a market where listings would easily take more than 100 days in pre-pandemic years (Fig. 4). This indicates that buyer-seller communication has remained fluid in these beach neighborhoods, and demand is still stable.

Miami Beach Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2023 – Fig. 4

1.4. Miami Beach: Inventory Up YoY – Market Stable

Q4 2023 closed with 20 months of Inventory

In line with the overall Miami trend of an increase in year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter inventory, luxury condos in Miami Beach reported the following statistics (Fig. 5):

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased from 14 months in September 2023 to 20 months in December 2023 – recording a 42.9% jump.
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory was up from 18 months in December 2022 to 20 months by year-end – reporting an 11.1% increase.

With 20 months of inventory, the statistic closed above the 9-12 month range of an ideal market, creating a theoretical shift into a buyer's market. However, as real estate experts, we recommend reading this as a balanced market, since this temporary spike is caused by a combination of a slower winter market and buyers listing ahead of peak season. We further expect this spike to correct itself as high season kicks off in spring 2024, keeping levels within a healthy range throughout the year.

Miami Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2023 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as the number of active listings + the number of pending listings, divided by the average number of deals in the last six months.

Looking for a market valuation on your Miami Beach condo? Call, chat, or email us for a free market evaluation of your property!

— 2. Miami Beach Neighborhoods: South Beach

2.1. South Beach Luxury Condo Sales Trends: Down Annually, Up Q4 YoY

Q4 2023 Sales up 3.9% year-over-year — Second-highest in a 4th quarter

Deviating minimally from the overall market trend of flat year-over-year sales, South Beach reported the following key sales statistics for Q4 2023:

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales increased 3.9% year-over-year, up from 51 in Q4 last year to 53 for the same quarter 2023. (Fig. 6.1)
• Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Sales stayed mostly flat, adjusting by 1.9% quarter-over-quarter, a notch up from 52 in the previous quarter to 53 sales in Q4 2023. (Fig. 6)
• Recording its second-highest sales in a fourth quarter, South Beach confirmed its popularity as a top market for luxury living with immense growth potential. (Fig. 7.1)

Annual Sales down 33.5% – Negative trendline

Consistent with the drop noted in the overall Miami sales trend, South Beach reported the following annual sales statistics for 2023:

• 2023 vs 2022. Sales declined 33.5%, down from 367 total sales in 2022 to 244 in 2023. (Fig. 6a)
• Annual sales in 2023 (244) were significantly higher compared to 2019 (149 annual sales), 2018 (155 annual sales), and any other previous year on record, highlighting the incredible change in market dynamics compared to pre-pandemic benchmarks. (Fig. 7.1)

With momentum slowing over the past two quarters (a regular phenomenon for Miami's cyclical luxury housing market), the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 7.2 shifted from a positive curve in the previous quarter to a negative trajectory in Q4 2023.

South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2023 - Fig. 7.1

South Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 7.2

2.2. South Beach Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot: Down Annually + Q4 YoY

Annual Price/Sq. Ft. down 5.6% to $1,198 – Median Price also down year-over-year

Moving against the overall Miami trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and Median Price, luxury condos in South Beach reported the following annual price statistics (Fig. 6a):

• 2023 vs 2022. Price per Square Foot declined 5.6% year-over-year, down from $1,270 in 2022 to $1,198 in 2023.
• Median Sales Price too decreased 17.5%, down from $2,000,000 in 2022 to $1,650,000 in 2023.

Q4 2023 Price per Sq. Ft. down 4.9% to $1,183 – Median Price also down year-over-year

In contrast to the overall Miami market trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and Median Price, luxury condos in South Beach reported the following price statistics in Q4 2023:

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per Square Foot decreased 4.9%, down from $1,244 in Q4 last year to $1,183 for the same quarter of 2023. (Fig. 6.1)
• A look at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 8), shows that the Price per Square Foot again closed in the higher ranges in South Beach, showing that sellers received good value for their luxury condo investments in this vacation/second-home hotspot.
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Median Sales Price dropped 17.5%, down from $2,000,000 in Q4 last year to $1,650,000 in Q4 2023. (Fig. 6.1)

South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Square Foot 2017-2023 - Fig. 8

2.3. South Beach: Days on Market Up Annually, Down Q4 YoY

Days on Market up 10.1% on an annual basis and down 19.8% 4Q23-over-4Q22

Following the overall Miami trend of an increase in 2023-over-2022 days and a decline in year-over-year values in Q4 2023, South Beach reported the following Days on Market statistics:

• 2023 vs 2022. Luxury condos spent 7 extra days on the market compared to 2022, reporting a 10.1% increase in year-over-year DOM. (Fig. 6a)
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Luxury condos spent 17 fewer days on the market compared to Q4 last year, reporting a 19.8% decline in year-over-year stats. (Fig. 6.1)

South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2023 - Fig. 9

2.4. South Beach: Inventory Flat YoY – One of Lowest in Miami Beach

Q4 2023 closed with 17 months of Inventory

Partly consistent with the overall Miami trend of an increase in year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter inventory, luxury condos in South Beach reported the following statistics:

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased from 12 months in September 2023 to 17 months in December 2023, reporting a 41.7% uptick. (Fig. 10)
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory matched numbers from a year ago, staying flat at 17 months in December 2023.
• At 17 months, inventory closed above the 9–12 month range of a balanced market, indicating a buyer's market (in theory). However, as per our expert observations in day-to-day interactions, buyers and sellers share equal leverage in South Beach's luxury housing market.
• South Beach further closed in 2023 with the lowest year-end inventory in Miami Beach, the same as Surfside & Bal Harbour.

South Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2023 - Fig. 10

— 3. Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Mid and North Beach

3.1. Mid-North Beach Luxury Condo Sales Trends: Down Annually + Q4 YoY

Q4 2023 Sales down 8.3% year-over-year

In contrast to the overall Miami market trend of flat year-over-year sales, luxury condos in Mid-North Beach reported the following key sales statistics for Q4 2023:

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales declined 8.3% year-over-year, down from 24 in Q4 last year to 22 for the comparable quarter 2023. (Fig. 11.1)
• Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Sales dropped 42.1% quarter-over-quarter, down from 38 in the previous quarter to 22 sales in Q4 2023. (Fig. 11)

Annual Sales down 37.1% – Negative Trendline

Echoing the overall market trend for sales, Mid-North Beach reported the following annual sales statistics for 2023:

• 2023 vs 2022. Sales declined 37.1%, down from 224 total sales in 2022 to 141 in 2023. (Fig. 11a)
• Annual sales in 2023 (144) were comparatively higher than in 2019 (105 annual sales), 2018 (87 annual sales), and earlier, indicating sustained expansion for this relatively modest luxury condo market. (Fig. 12.1)

Owing to a slower-paced winter market (expected of Miami's seasonal housing market), the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 12.2 shifted from a positive curve in Q3 to a negative trajectory in Q4 2023.

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Quarterly Sales 2015-2023 - Fig. 12.1

Mid-Beach and North-Beach 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2

3.2. Mid-North Beach Luxury Condo Price Per Square Foot: Down Annually + Q4 YoY

Annual Price/Sq. Ft. down 3% to $1,032 – Median Price up year-over-year

In contrast to the overall Miami trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and Median Price, luxury condos in Mid-North Beach reported the following annual price statistics (Fig. 11a):

• 2023 vs 2022. Price per Square Foot declined 3% year-over-year, down from $1,064 in 2022 to $1,032 in 2023.
• Median Sales Price, on the other hand, increased 2.6%, up from $1,637,500 in 2022 to $1,680,000 in 2023.
• The inconsistency noted above in Price per Square Foot and Sales Price trends could be due to sales of larger condos dominating the year, spreading any increase in prices over a larger square footage. The same would apply to the quarterly trends noted below.

Q4 2023 Price per Sq. Ft. down 18.5% to $922 – Median Price up year-over-year

Deviating from the overall Miami market trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and Median Price, luxury condos in Mid-North Beach reported the following price statistics in Q4 2023:

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per Square Foot declined 18.5%, down from $1,131 in Q4 last year to $922 for the same quarter of 2023. (Fig. 11.1)
• A look at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 13), shows that the Price per Square Foot closed in the mid-ranges in Q4 2023 – indicating that sellers received fair value for their luxury condos in Mid-North Beach.
• Mid-North Beach also closed Q4 2023 with the lowest Price per Square Foot for luxury condos in Miami Beach, giving buyers an excellent opportunity to buy into an oceanfront neighborhood.
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Median Sales Price increased 10.3%, up from $1,475,000 in Q4 last year to $1,627,500 in Q4 2023. (Fig. 11.1)

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 13

3.3. Mid-North Beach: Fastest-selling Market of Q4 2023 in Miami Beach

Days on Market flat on an annual basis and down 56% 4Q23-over-4Q22

Partly in sync with the overall Miami trend of an increase in 2023-over-2022 days on the market and a decrease in year-over-year numbers in Q4 2023, Mid-North Beach reported the following Days on Market statistics:

• 2023 vs 2022. Luxury condos spent just 1 extra day on the market compared to 2022, reporting a negligible change in year-over-year DOM. (Fig. 11a)
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Luxury condos spent 69 fewer days on the market compared to Q4 2022, reporting a 56% decrease in year-over-year stats. (Fig. 11.1)
• Luxury condos in Mid-North Beach took under 2 months (54 days) to sell – making it the fastest-selling market of Miami Beach in Q4 2023.

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2023 – Fig. 14

3.4. Mid-North Beach: Inventory Up YoY

Q4 2023 closed with 18 months of Inventory.

Following the overall Miami trend of an increase in year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter inventory, luxury condos in Mid-North Beach reported the following statistics:

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased from 17 months in September 2023 to 18 months in December 2023, reporting a 5.9% increase. (Fig. 15)
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory increased from 16 months in December last year to 18 months in December 2023, reporting a 12.5% increase.
• At 16 months, year-end inventory closed above the 9-12 month range of an ideal market, indicating a buyer-friendly market, which will soon be corrected to a balanced position as high season takes over in spring 2024.

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2023 - Fig. 15

A balanced market has 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last six months.

— 4. Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Surfside & Bal Harbour

4.1. Surfside & Bal Harbour Luxury Condo Sales Stats: Strongest Market of 2023 + Q4 YoY

Q4 2023 Sales up 22.2% year-over-year

Positively deviating from the overall market trend of flat year-over-year sales, Surfside & Bal Harbour recorded incredible progress with the following key sales statistics for Q4 2023:

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales improved 22.2% year-over-year, up from 18 in Q4 2022 to 22 for the comparable quarter 2023. (Fig. 16.1)
• Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Sales declined 26.7% quarter-over-quarter, down from 30 in the previous quarter to 22 sales in Q4 2023. (Fig. 16)
• Recording the highest percentage growth of all Miami Beach neighborhoods under our review, Surfside & Bal Harbour established itself as a market to watch in the new year.

Annual Sales down 27.8% – Negative trendline

Echoing the drop in sales noted in the overall Miami trend, the combined neighborhood of Surfside & Bal Harbour reported the following annual sales statistics for 2023:

• 2023 vs 2022. Sales declined 27.8%, down from 158 total sales in 2022 to 114 in 2023. (Fig. 16a)
• Annual sales in 2023 (114) were significantly higher compared to 2019 (84 annual sales), 2018 (79 annual sales), and any other pre-pandemic year on record – highlighting sustained growth and expansion in this upscale market. (Fig. 16.1)
• Surfside & Bal Harbour also emerged as Miami Beach's most resilient market in 2023, reporting the lowest negative impact on 2023-over-2022 sales (-27.8%).

As momentum declined over winter, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 17.2 expectedly dropped into a negative trajectory in Q4 2023 from a positive curve in Q3 2023.

Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Sales 2015-2023 - Fig. 17.1

Surfside & Bal Harbour 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 17.2

4.2. Surfside & Bal Harbour Lead Price Gains for Q4 2023 in Miami Overall

Annual Price/Sq. Ft. up 3.5% to $1,337 – Median Price down year-over-year

Deviating from the overall Miami trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and Median Price, luxury condos in Surfside & Bal Harbour reported the following annual price stats (Fig. 16a):

• 2023 vs 2022. Price per Square Foot increased 3.5% year-over-year, up from $1,292 in 2022 to $1,337 in 2023.
• Median Sales Price declined 3.9%, down from $2,850,000 in 2022 to $2,737,500 in 2023.
• The variance noted in the Price per Square Foot and Sales Price trends above could be due to the dominance of sales of smaller condos throughout the year. Generally, such smaller condos command a higher price per square foot as they pack in more amenities.
• Leading annual price growth trends in Miami Beach, the combined neighborhood of Surfside & Bal Harbour reported the highest percentage gain in Price per Square Foot, giving sellers excellent value for their luxury properties.

Q4 2023 Price per Sq. Ft. up 54.8% to $1,592 – Median Price also up

Positively deviating from the overall Miami market trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and Median Price, luxury condos in Surfside & Bal Harbour reported the following price stats in Q4 2023 (Fig. 16.1):

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per Square Foot increased 54.8%, up from $1,028 in Q4 last year to $1,592 for the same quarter of 2023.
• A look at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 18), shows that the Price per Square Foot closed at its second-highest level ever – indicating that sellers received top dollar in this upscale pairing.
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Median Sales Price increased 13.2%, up from $2,225,500 in Q4 last year to $2,518,500 in the same quarter of 2023.
• Recording the highest percentage increase in Price per Square Foot of all neighborhoods under our review, Surfside & Bal Harbour led price growth trends in all of Miami for Q4 2023.

Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 18

4.3. Surfside & Bal Harbour: Days on Market Down Annually, Up Q4 YoY

Days on Market down 11.5% on annual basis and up 21.4% 4Q23-over-4Q22

In contrast to the overall Miami trend of an increase in 2023-over-2022 days and decline in year-over-year values in Q4 2023, Surfside & Bal Harbour reported the following Days on Market statistics:

• 2023 vs 2022. Luxury condos spent ten fewer days on the market compared to 2022, reporting an 11.5% decrease in year-over-year DOM. (Fig. 16a)
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Luxury condos spent 15 more days on the market compared to Q4 last year, reporting a 21.4% increase in year-over-year stats. (Fig. 16.1)

Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2023 – Fig. 19

4.4. Surfside & Bal Harbour: Inventory Down YoY to One of Lowest in Miami Beach

Q4 2023 closed with 17 months of Inventory

Partly deviating from the overall Miami trend of an increase in year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter inventory, luxury condos in Surfside & Bal Harbour reported the following statistics:

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased from 12 months in September 2023 to 17 months in December 2023 – reporting a 41.7% increase. (Fig. 20)
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory decreased from 18 months in December last year to 17 months in December 2023 – reporting a 5.6% decrease.
• At 17 months, inventory closed above the 9–12-month range of a balanced market, giving buyers only an interim advantage in an otherwise balanced market.
• Surfside & Bal Harbour closed 2023 with the lowest year-end inventory in Miami Beach, the same as South Beach.

Surfside & Bal Harbour Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2023 - Fig. 20

A balanced market has 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last six months.

If you are interested in buying or selling a condo in any of these Miami Beach neighborhoods, or would like more information about the data in our reports, please email or call us anytime.

— 5. Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Sunny Isles Beach

5.1. Sunny Isles Luxury Condo Sales: Down Annually + Q4 YoY

Q4 2023 Sales down 3.6% year-over-year — Higher than pre-pandemic quarters

Deviating from the overall Miami market trend of flat year-over-year sales, Sunny Isles Beach reported the following key sales statistics for Q4 2023:

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales decreased 3.6% year-over-year, down from 56 in Q4 2022 to 54 in the same quarter 2023. (Fig. 21.1)
• What's worth noting is that sales were higher than any previous quarter noted in Q3 2020 and earlier, indicating that this oceanfront corridor for branded luxury condos has crossed a major growth threshold. (Fig. 22.1)
• Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Sales declined 15.6% quarter-over-quarter, down from 64 in the previous quarter to 54 sales in Q4 2023. (Fig. 21)

Annual Sales down 36.3% – Negative Trendline

Following the overall Miami market trend for sales, luxury condos in Sunny Isles Beach reported the following annual sales statistics for 2023:

• 2023 vs 2022. Sales declined 36.3%, down from 466 total sales in 2022 to 297 in 2023. (Fig. 21a)
• Annual sales in 2023 (297) were significantly higher compared to 2019 (133 sales), 2018 (129 sales), and earlier, capturing the scale of expansion in this beachfront market. (Fig. 7.1)

As explained above in this report, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 22.2 expectedly dropped from a positive in Q3 to a negative trajectory in Q4 2022 owing to the seasonality of the market.

Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2023 - Fig. 22.1

Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 22.2

5.2. Sunny Isles Luxury Condo Price Trends: Flat Annually, Down Q4 YoY

Annual Price/Sq. Ft. flat at $913 – Median Price up year-over-year

Partly in line with the overall Miami trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and Median Price, luxury condos in Sunny Isles Beach reported the following annual price statistics (Fig. 21a):

• 2023 vs 2022. Price per Square Foot stayed flat, adjusting by -0.3%, marginally down from $916 in 2022 to $913 in 2023.
• Median Sales Price increased 9.7%, up from $1,800,000 in 2022 to $1,975,000 in 2023.

Q4 2023 Price per Sq. Ft. down 6.6% to $941 – Median Price up year-over-year

In contrast to the overall Miami market trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and Median Price, luxury condos in Sunny Isles Beach reported the following price statistics in Q4 2023:

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per Square Foot declined 6.6%, down from $1,007 in Q4 last year to $941 for the same quarter of 2023. (Fig. 21.1)
• A look at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 23) shows that the Price per Square Foot closed in the higher ranges in Q4 2023, indicating that sellers received great value in Sunny Isles Beach.
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Median Sales Price increased 19.7%, up from $1,900,000 in Q4 last year to $2,275,000 in Q4 2023. (Fig. 21.1)
• The inconsistency seen above in Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price stats could be due to sales of larger-sized condos dominating the quarter, spreading any gains in prices thinly over their square footage.

Sunny Isles Beach Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 23

5.3. Sunny Isles: Days on Market Down Annually + Q4 YoY

Days on Market down 5.7% on an annual basis and flat 4Q23-over-4Q22

In contrast to the overall Miami trend of an increase in 2023-over-2022 days and decline in year-over-year values in Q4 2023, Sunny Isles Beach reported the following Days on Market statistics:

• 2023 vs 2022. Luxury condos spent 5 fewer days on the market compared to 2022, reporting a 5.7% decrease in year-over-year DOM. (Fig. 21a)
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Luxury condos spent 2 days less on the market compared to Q4 last year, reporting a negligible change in year-over-year stats. (Fig. 21.1)

Sunny Isles Beach Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2023 – Fig. 24

5.4. Sunny Isles: Luxury Condo Inventory Up YoY to Highest in Miami Beach

Q4 2023 closed with 21 months of Inventory

Comparable to the overall Miami market trend of an increase in year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter inventory, luxury condos in Sunny Isles Beach reported the following statistics:

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased from 15 months in September 2023 to 21 months in December 2023 – reporting a 40% increase. (Fig. 25)
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory was up from 19 months in last December to 21 months in December 2023 – reporting a 10.5% increase.
• At 21 months, inventory closed above its ideal benchmark of 9 to 12 months, giving buyers a unique opportunity to choose from a surplus in an otherwise balanced market.

Sunny Isles Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2023 - Fig. 25

A balanced market has 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last six months.

— 6. Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Fisher Island

6.1. Fisher Island: Luxury Condo Sales Down Annually + Q4 YoY

Q4 2023 Sales down 16.7% year-over-year

In contrast to the overall Miami market trend of flat year-over-year sales, Fisher Island reported the following key sales statistics for Q4 2023:

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales declined 16.7% year-over-year, down a notch from 6 in Q4 2022 to 5 for the same quarter 2023. (Fig. 26.1)
• Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Sales declined 37.5% quarter-over-quarter, down from 8 in the previous quarter to 5 sales in Q4 2023. (Fig. 26)

Annual Sales down 34.9% – Negative Trendline

Consistent with the overall Miami market trend for sales, luxury condos in Fisher Island reported the following annual sales statistics for 2023:

• 2023 vs 2022. Sales declined 34.9%, down from 43 total sales in 2022 to 28 in 2023. (Fig. 26a)

As detailed above in this report, due to the seasonality of the luxury housing market, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 27.2 expectedly downshifted from a positive in Q3 to a negative curve in Q4 2023.

Fisher Island Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2023 - Fig. 27.1

Fisher Island Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 27.2

6.2. Fisher Island: Luxury Condo Prices Down, Still Most Expensive in Miami

Annual Price/Sq. Ft. flat at $1,932 – Median Price down year-over-year

Partly in sync with the overall Miami trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and Median Price, luxury condos in Fisher Island reported the following annual price statistics (Fig. 26a):

• 2023 vs 2022. Price per Square Foot stayed flat, adjusting only 1.5%, slightly up from $1,903 in 2022 to $1,932 in 2023.
• At $1,932/square foot, luxury condos in Fisher Island remained the most expensive in Miami overall.
• Median Sales Price decreased 15.4%, down from $6,500,000 in 2022 to $5,500,000 in 2023, still maintaining its position as the most expensive zip code in all of Miami.

Q4 2023 Price per Sq. Ft. down 28.2% to $1,854 – Median Price also down

Deviating from the overall Miami market trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and Median Price, luxury condos in Fisher Island reported the following price statistics in Q4 2023:

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per Square Foot declined 28.2%, down from $2,584 in Q4 last year to $1,854 for the same quarter of 2023. (Fig. 26.1)
• A look at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 28), shows that the Price per Square Foot closed in the higher ranges in Q4 2023 – indicating that sellers received good value for their luxury condos in Fisher Island.
• Fisher Island held onto its title as the "most expensive neighborhood" in all of Miami in Q4 2023, with a median price of $1,854/square foot.
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Median Sales Price decreased 56.2%, down from $9,825,000 in Q4 last year to $4,300,000 in Q4 2023. Since all the properties sold in the quarter were smaller in size and relatively lower priced, the sales price dropped sharply, and not due to any market disruptions. (Fig. 26.1)

Fisher Island Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 28

6.3. Fisher Island: Days on Market Up Annually + Q4 YoY

Days on Market up 121.7% on an annual basis and 859% 4Q23-over-4Q22

Partly consistent with the overall Miami trend of an increase in 2023-over-2022 days and decline in year-over-year values in Q4 2023, Fisher Island reported the following Days on Market statistics:

• 2023 vs 2022. Luxury condos spent 84 more days on the market compared to 2022, reporting a 121.7% increase in year-over-year DOM. (Fig. 26a)
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Luxury condos spent 232 more days on the market (theoretically) compared to Q4 last year, reporting an anomaly of 859% in year-over-year stats. (Fig. 26.1)
• This stark difference in the Days on Market stats can be explained by the data from Q4 2022 when Fisher Island emerged as the fastest-selling market. (Fig. 29) Considering all properties in the quarter sold fairly quickly, in a market where properties generally take 100+ days to close, the statistic dipped to its lowest ever. However, as luxury condos started selling at their usual pace, the statistic is still adjusting. Further, historically, the Days on Market statistic has been highly volatility, due to the modest size of this market – not always reflecting the true pace of the market.

Fisher Island Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2023 – Fig. 29

6.4. Fisher Island: Luxury Condo Inventory Down YoY

Q4 2023 closed with 18 months of Inventory

Positively deviating from the overall Miami trend of an increase in year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter inventory, Fisher Island reported the following statistics:

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased from 16 months in September 2023 to 18 months in December 2023, reporting an uptick of 12.5%. (Fig. 30)
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory decreased from 21 months in December 2022 to 18 months in December 2023, reporting a 14.3% decline.
• At 18 months, inventory closed above the ideal range of nine to 12 months, giving buyers a temporary edge in an otherwise balanced market.
  
  

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Fisher Island Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2023 - Fig. 30

A balanced market has 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last six months.

— 7. Q4 2023 Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Conclusion

Even as sales closed lower across the board in 2023 and Q4 2023, compared to the supercharged pace of 2021-22, a closer look at the numbers above shows how Miami Beach's luxury condo market reported incredible growth compared to pre-pandemic years. As real estate experts, we find this beachside market to hold tremendous growth potential, making it a great second home or vacation home investment considering the continued attention from buyers from high-tax states and luxury seekers across the globe.

In Q4 2023, Surfside & Bal Harbour (combined) emerged as the neighborhood of choice for luxury condo buyers, reporting the highest percentage sales growth (22%) in a 4Q23-over-4Q22 sales analysis as well as 2023-over-2022 annual analysis.

Echoing the overall Miami trend, the 12-month sales trendline adapted a negative curve across the board in Miami Beach, owing to a slower Q3 and Q4 (a yearly phenomenon for Miami's seasonal housing market).

In terms of prices, Miami Beach, just like the overall Miami trend, reported a flat 2023-over-2022 as well as 4Q23-over-4Q22 Price per Square Foot, offering sellers modest yet steady gains on their investments. As always, Fisher Island continued as the most expensive zip code in Miami and Miami Beach, posting the highest Price per Square Foot ($1,854) and Median Sales Price ($4.2 million), but losses in price value compared to last year. Surfside & Bal Harbour led price growth trends in Miami Beach as well as Miami overall – offering sellers an excellent return on investment with a year-over-year increase of 55%.

Again, echoing the overall Miami trend, inventory was higher across the board in Miami Beach – except in Fisher Island and Surfside & Bal Harbour. South Beach plus Surfside & Bal Harbour closed 2023 with the lowest levels (17) of inventory, while Sunny Isles Beach reported the highest levels (21 months) in Miami Beach.

Heading into 2024, as real estate experts, we expect the following factors to influence market growth in Miami Beach:

• Pairing a burgeoning economy with incredible tax savings, we expect more of ultra-high-net-worth and global elite players such as Jeff Bezos and Lionel Messi to be attracted to our collection of high-end condos, the newest batch of which are top-luxury branded opportunities.
• We expect more buyers and sellers to re-enter the market as interest rates look to settle within the 6-7% range.
• We expect our foreign buyer market share to increase steadily, as Miami continues being a safe investment haven and more snowbirds look to take advantage of our sunny, investment-friendly landscape.
• We expect inventory levels to increase moderately in 2024 as a few pre-construction projects, the likes of Five Park, Alana, and Kosher-friendly 42 Pine, are completed and owners in dated buildings (20 years and older) look to sell owing to skyrocketing repair costs with Miami's latest condo laws. However, with steady demand, we also expect inventory to stay within a manageable range.
  
  

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If you have any questions or comments with the stats, or are interested in buying a Miami Beach condo in one of these neighborhoods, please contact us directly and we'll be happy to help!