Are Trump's condo building values in South Florida dropping faster than the rest of the market?
Oct 18, 2019 October 18, 2019
Since South Florida is home to several Trump condominium properties, many have wondered how the Trump’s performance as President may be affecting real estate sales in those properties. To quell our curiosity, we set out to find out how those properties have fared in the period since Trump was elected President. Using data sourced from MLS 2019/8/14 we evaluated sales in Trump condo properties between January 2017 and August 2019.
Our evaluation focused on properties located in the 33160 Sunny Isles Beach area, and did not include Trump condos in Hollywood (33019) and West Palm Beach (33401). Our analysis was further limited to waterfront properties built between 2003 and 2010 which are the years the Trump properties were all built, so we would have an apples to apples comparison. We focused on 2-3 bedroom properties, as this reflects the majority of properties sold during the period of evaluation.
How have Condo sales in Trump Properties fared since 2017?
- Taking into account all closed sales on waterfront properties built between 2003 and 2010, sales of Trump condos increased between 2017 and 2019.
- Considering closed sales exclusively for YTD July period, sales of 0-4 bed properties in Sunny Isles, Trump Condos increased from 33% in 2017, to 38% in 2018, and to 51% in 2019.
- The majority of closed sales of Trump properties between 2017 and 2018 occurred during the month of August.
- From January through July of 2019, closed sales of Trump properties trumped sales of non-Trump properties during 5 out of 7 months.
- During the period between January 2017 and August 2019, condos in Trump properties sold for more than condos in non-Trump properties.
- Among 2 and 3 bedroom properties assessed during the comparison period, condos in Trump properties also have a higher median sales price per square foot in comparison to condos in non-Trump properties.
- During the comparison period between 2017 and July 2019, we noted a downward trajectory for median sales price per square foot for 2 and 3 bedroom waterfront condo properties built between 2003 and 2010. While this applied to both Trump and non-Trump properties, the Trump properties decreased by 6% over this period, while non-Trump properties decreased by 16%. Assessing the quarterly trajectory, there has been a more gradual decrease in the median sales price per square foot of Trump properties versus non-Trump properties.
- Trump condo properties currently have a higher supply now than non-Trump condos.
- So far during 2019, 0-4 bedroom condos in Trump properties have achieved sale prices that are closer to their list price in comparison to similar units in non-Trump properties.
While the number of properties evaluated is small and market variances may affect insights, judging from these comparisons, it appears that Trump’s presidency has had more of a positive than negative impact on sales of condos, as his properties are faring better in the market than non-Trump properties in the same area.
If you would like to verify or run your own numbers, we have made the source data available here.