Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Report - Q2 2021
Jul 29, 2021 July 29, 2021
Carrying over momentum from Q1 2021, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove again reported record-high sales with record-low inventory in our Blackbook Properties Luxury Condo Real Estate Market Report for Q2 2021. As with all of the Miami market in general, sales, prices and demand is being driven by heightened buyer interest from domestic as well as foreign buyers, relaxed travel policies, and the recent establishment of Miami as a major tech and VC hub. These factors continue to fuel record numbers into the second quarter, which is historically known to be the best-performing quarter of the year.
In addition to prices increasing in response to this surge in demand, inventory has substantially dropped, transitioning Miami and this sub-market from its long-standing buyer-friendly position into a seller's market. In fact, the dynamic market of Coral Gables & Coconut Grove was one of the first Miami neighborhoods to post signs of this impending transition. Just like the overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Report for Q2 2021, sellers in Coral Gables & Coconut Grove are now in control of prices and negotiations, enjoying multiple, competitive offers for their luxury condos.
Read on to see how this collective Miami neighborhood performed year-over-year as well as against the overall Miami market trends in terms of sales, prices, days on market, and inventory in our exclusive, full-length analysis for Q2 2021.
For the purpose of this Miami submarket luxury condo report, we've only included properties priced $1 million and above.
Q2 2021 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Highlights:
- Record-breaking Q2 sales -- highest-ever quarterly sales in over 6 years, also higher than the record-setting sales of Q1 2021
- 306% growth in year-over-year Sales
- 12-month Sales Trendline stays positive between Q1 2021 and Q2 2021
- Sales uptrend for 4 consecutive quarters
- Price per Square Foot up 7% year-over-year to $680/sq. Ft. -- still lowest entry point into Miami's luxury condo market
- Sales Price down -6.6% year-over-year
- Days on Market down -23% year-over-year
- Inventory down 72% year-over-year to 7 months -- one of lowest in Miami, just behind Fisher Island (5 months)
- Coral Gables and Coconut Grove is now a seller's market
Table of Contents
- Q2 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Sales Trends
- Q2 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Price Trends
- Q2 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
- Q2 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
- Q2 2021 Conclusion
Q2 2021 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1
Number of Sales
% change in Sales
Median Sale Price
% change in Median Sale Price
% change in Median Sp/Sqft
Median of DOM
Record-high sales fuel 306% year-over-year growth + positive trendline. Echoing and contributing to the positive sales trends seen in the overall Miami report for Q2 2021, this pair of historically-significant neighborhoods posts its highest quarterly sales seen in over 6 years of our reporting (and before from personal observation).
On an upward trajectory for 4 consecutive quarters, sales are up 306% year-over-year in Q2 2021 (Fig. 1). Even compared to pre-pandemic years, sales increased 141% against Q2 2019 (27 sales) and 97% against Q2 2018 (33 sales). This shows that the luxury condo market in Coral Gables & Coconut Grove, like the overall Miami market, has outperformed even some of the strongest sales cycles in recent years.
Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 2.1
Looking at the Monthly Sales chart of Fig. 2.2 below, volumes peaked during April and May, with each month reporting 22 closed sales. However, June cuts close with 21 closed sales. Comparing this to the monthly trends seen in the overall Miami market report, we could be looking at hints of an impending market cool-off.
Considering the second quarter of the year is generally the strongest, as real estate experts, we are expecting the market to cool down slightly over the next two quarters. (Look at Fig. 2.1 to notice the luxury condo market's hot and cool cycles from previous years.) However, with market demand still going strong, and as domestic and foreign buyers continue to contact us, we still expect the year to close stronger than any of the previous years under review.
Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Jun. 2021 - Fig. 2.2
Considering the consistent sales performance, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 2.3 expectedly stays positive between Q1 2021 and Q2 2021.
Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3
Price per Square Foot up 7% to $680, Median Sales Price down -6.6% year-over-year. Deviating slightly from the overall market trend of higher year-over-year prices, this combined neighborhood reports an increase in Median Price per Square Foot but a decline in its Median Sales Price.
The Price per Square Foot increased 7% year-over-year, moving up from $636 in Q2 the previous year to $680 for the same quarter 2021. Additionally, the Median Price per Square Foot declined slightly from Q1 2021. The Median Sales Price decreased 6.6% year-over-year, down from $1,660,000 in Q1 2020 to $1,550,000 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 1). This variation in price trends could be due to sales being dominated by newly constructed luxury condos that offer more amenities but smaller floor plans, thereby closing with a higher price per square foot.
Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 3
A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly Price per Square Foot above (Fig. 3), reveals that prices closed in the higher ranges for this pairing -- showing good value for sellers. However, regardless of closing with the second-highest price per square foot noted in the past 5 years, the combined neighborhoods of Coral Gables & Coconut Grove make a great entry point into Miami's luxury condo market.
With the lowest price per square foot of all Miami neighborhoods under review in Q2 2021, buyers can still hope to find some bargains in this booming market as they search Coral Gables or Coconut Grove condos for sale here.
23% decline in year-over-year Days on Market (DOM). Deviating from the overall market trend of lower year-over-year Days on Market, this combined neighborhood posts an increase in its quarter-over-quarter DOM and decline in year-over-year DOM. This could possibly be due to values still adjusting as more sellers have been re-activating or re-listing paused (older) listings over the past few quarters, increasing values momentarily, as opposed to any real buyer-seller communication gap.
Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 4
Luxury condos in Coral Gables & Coconut Grove spent 23 fewer days on market compared to Q2 last year, and 6 extra days compared to the previous quarter (Fig. 4).
Q2 closes with 7 months of Inventory. One of the first neighborhoods in Miami to reach the ideal 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market in Q1 2020, inventory in this pairing of beautiful neighborhoods dropped to a record-low. At 7 months, inventory is down 72% from 25 months in June 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory is down 41.7% from 12 months in March. These trends of consistently lower inventory are in sync with the luxury condo market trends seen in our overall Miami market report for Q2 2021.
Reporting further progress on its previous quarter trends, inventory in this grouping is down to a new historical low. Also, the combined district again reports one of the lowest months of inventory of all the Miami neighborhoods tracked in our overall analysis. This puts sellers more in control of dealings with competitive offers, as opposed to the long-standing buyer's market we had seen for several years.
Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Jun. 2021 - Fig. 5
A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.
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With trends mostly in line with the Q2 2021 overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Report, the Coral Gables and Coconut Grove grouping is now a seller's market. Sales posted record-breaking numbers as the market continues in overdrive this second-quarter, echoing the extremely positive mood seen in the overall Miami market report. The 12-month Sales Trendline also stayed positive between Q1- and Q2-2021, much like the overall market.
On the price front, the Price per Square Foot for the grouping posted year-over-year gains, in sync with the overall market. At $680/sq. ft., sellers received a marked improvement in year-over-year value for their luxury condos, even though this collective neighborhood is (perpetually) the most affordable entry-point into Miami's luxury condo market.
The Days on Market were lower year-over-year, echoing the overall Miami trend, showing that buyers and sellers have been quicker to reach a consensus in this sub-market.
In terms of inventory, as expected, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove report one of the lowest levels of inventory in all of Miami, just behind Fisher Island (reporting 5 months of inventory). At 7 months, inventory makes a new record low seen in the past 5 years of our reporting. This puts numbers within the ideal 9-12 months range of a balanced situation, shifting the spotlight from a buyer's market to seller's market.
As real estate experts, we're expecting the next few quarters to cool off with a slower pace of sales (based on historical sales trends), but relative to this strong market. Even as the market takes its seasonal break, we expect it to close the year on a stronger note than any of the previous years under review due to the following reasons:
- More and more businesses and individuals seeking tax breaks continue to leave high-tax states
- Pent-up domestic and foreign buyer demand is being satisfied with relaxed travel policies and increased availability of vaccinations
- Those opting to work from home (mostly or permanently) make the shift to a warmer home by the beach or a beautiful historical neighborhood such as Coral Gables or Coconut Grove
- Inventory levels stay low in the immediate future as new projects take time to get off the ground and frantic demand keeps levels healthy.
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