CondoBlackbook.com's third-quarter Coral Gables and Coconut Grove luxury condo market report for 2020 has many positives to report. The Price per Square Foot grew year-over-year even as Median Sales improved to a more stable position this Q3, showing that owners received fair value for their luxury condos despite the pandemic. Inventory also remained stable, showing that a market recovery is to be expected.

Looking at the Condoblackbook.com's overall Miami luxury condo market report for Q3 2020, we saw that sales and prices increased year-over-year, the days on market remained flat, and inventory also moved higher year-over-year (expectedly). Read on for our exclusive and full-length analysis on how the collective neighborhoods of Coral Gables and Coconut Grove fared against the overall market in terms of the above-mentioned metrics.

For the purpose of this Miami submarket luxury condo report, we've only featured properties priced $1 million and above.

Q3 2020 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Highlights:

• Q3 Sales flat year-over-year, bounce back from lowest Q2 levels in four years
• 12-month trendline remains negative from Q2 to Q3
• Price per Square Foot up 13.5% year-over-year to $545/sq. ft. - still lowest in Miami overall
• Sales Price down 16.2% year-over-year
• Days on Market flat year-over-year, up QoQ expectedly
• Inventory flat quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, continues being lowest in Miami

Table of Contents

1. 3Q 2020 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. 3Q 2020 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Price Trends
3. 3Q 2020 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
4. 3Q 2020 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
5. 3Q 2020 Conclusion

Q3 2020 Luxury Condo Sales Recover to Flat YoY

Q3 2020 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1

Q3 2020 Sales improve to being flat year-over-year with slightly negative trendline. Almost in line with the positive sales trend observed in the overall Miami luxury condo market report for Q3 2020 (higher year-over-year), this combination neighborhood reports the same sales volume as Q3 for the previous year. Bouncing back from its lowest Q2 results in four years (down only due to the pandemic), it is exciting to see this pair of Miami's most beautiful and historic neighborhoods post such progress.

A closer look into the Monthly Sales chart (Fig. 2.2) reveals that July reported higher sales (10 sales) compared to the same month last year (6 sales), August reported the same number of sales year-over-year (6), and only September fell slightly short with 8 sales against the previous year's 9. This shows that pent-up demand started coming through as soon as global markets re-opened.

Although sales grew 50% quarter-over-quarter, the 12-month trendline in Fig. 2.3 stays negative between Q2 and Q3, improving only slightly in angle. This shows that the next quarter's results will be crucial in determining whether this grouping has made a full recovery or not.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2020 - Fig. 2.1

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 2.2

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Q3 2020 Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot Up YoY, Still Lowest in Miami Overall

Price per Square Foot up 13.5%, Median Sales Price down 16.2% year-over-year. Partly in line with the overall market trend of higher year-over-year prices, this Coral Gables and Coconut Grove grouping reports a year-over-year increase in its median Price per Square Foot, but decline in Sales Prices. This variation in trends could be due to the sale of luxury condos that were smaller in size but packed in more amenities, making them fetch a higher price/square foot. If we think of new construction condo deliveries in the neighborhoods, this could be the case. 

The Price per Square Foot in Q3 went up 13.5%, increasing from $480 in the same quarter last year to $545 this year. On the other hand, Sales Price declined 16.2% year-over-year, down from $1,575,000 in Q3 last year to $1,320,000 this year (Fig. 1).

At $545 per square foot, sellers received excellent value for their luxury condo investments from the year-ago, and compared to the overall Miami market. With the lowest price per square foot of all the Miami neighborhoods under review, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove make a great entry point into the luxury residential real estate market in Miami.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 3

Days on Market Up QoQ, But Flat YoY

Days on Market keep flat year-over-year. Going with the overall market trend in Miami, this combined neighborhood posted a flat year-over-year Days on Market in Q3. Luxury condos spent just 2 more days on market compared to the same quarter last year, but 16 more days compared to Q2 (Fig. 4). This slight uptrend is quite expected as the pandemic delayed a majority of the closings in Q2.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 4

Inventory Flat QoQ & YoY, Continues as Lowest in Miami

Q3 closes with 27 months of Inventory. Partly in line with the overall market trend of higher year-over-year inventory, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove report an increase of only 1 month in inventory. At 27 months from 26 in June as well as September last year, inventory is almost flat for this beautiful pair of historic neighborhoods ideal for families and those seeking more green space.

Of all the Miami neighborhoods included in our quarterly reports, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove are still poised to be one of the first to settle down to the ideal 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market. This means buyers should consider how to make the most of this opportunity as the luxury condo market begins showing signs of a recovery. To look at the kind of inventory available and find the best deals, search for Coral Gables or Coconut Grove condos for sale here.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

3Q 2020 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Conclusion

The collective neighborhood of Coral Gables and Coconut Grove reports trends almost similar to those seen in the overall Miami luxury condo market report this Q3 2020. Although sales do not recover to exceed year-ago numbers, they still match Q3 2019 levels, showing stability, good activity and progress. Also, as the 12-month sales trendline for overall Miami improves from negative in Q2 to flat in Q3, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove responds with only an improvement of angle but posts a negative much like Q2.

On the price front, the Price per Square Foot improved year-over-year just like the overall market. This coupled with good sales momentum shows that sellers got better value for their investments despite the pandemic. However, at $545/ sq. ft., prices are still the lowest of all Miami neighborhoods part of our study, offering buyers an affordable entry point into the luxury condo market of Miami in very established and desirable neighborhoods known to hold their value.

Days on Market stayed flat year-over-year, just like the overall market, indicating that the pandemic had no impact on buyer-seller communication in this collective neighborhood in terms of closings.

In terms of inventory, this has always been the most dynamic neighborhood of all those under our study, and the trend continues this Q3 2020 as well. With inventory almost flat, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove report the lowest levels in all of Miami, giving buyers a smaller window of opportunity to find the best deals in these desirable neighborhoods.

With the outlook mostly positive for upcoming quarters, as real estate experts, we strongly expect sales momentum to keep (if not improve) through Q4 and Q1 2021, bringing inventory levels back to their pre-pandemic lows sooner. We expect more demand coming in from:

• those looking to catch tax breaks as they migrate from high-tax states to Florida's zero-income tax,
• those looking to experience warmer winters by the beach,
• those better equipped to shift out due to relaxed work from home norms, giving them a chance to live in a tropical haven with water views, and
• those getting to travel as restrictions ease up.

The only wild card this year would be the Presidential Elections, which generally put a pause on buyer activity. However, how long is the key question to look out for. Except for that, with inventory levels poised to reach the ideal 9-12-month mark of a balanced market, buyers should hurry to seize well-priced deals in this dynamic grouping.

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Questions or comments about the stats? Want more info on Miami condos? Contact Sep at sniakan (at) hbroswell.com or call 305-725-0566.