Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Report - Q3 2021

Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Report - Q3 2021

Nov 03, 2021 November 03, 2021

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With strong sales, stronger prices, and inventory down to a new low in Q3 2021, a sellers' market is in full force in this collective neighborhood of Coral Gables & Coconut Grove. Although not surpassing its second quarter's record-high sales, this specific Miami luxury condo market performed exceptionally well for a third-quarter. Sales are not only at their peak for a third quarter in over 6 years, but also stronger than Q1 this year, suggesting that the market will likely close its fourth quarter on an incredibly strong note, in sync with the booming pace of 2021.

Prices again increased in this dynamic district, giving sellers better value than the same period a year-ago. Days on Market are down quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, just like the overall Miami Luxury Condo Market report for Q3 2021. Also, inventory found a new low this third quarter in response to surging demand, putting buyers in stiff competition with each other as sellers enjoy having control of prices and negotiations after a long hiatus.

Read below for more details on how this collective Miami neighborhood performed year-over-year, compared to pre-pandemic numbers, as well as against the overall Miami market trends in terms of sales, prices, days on market, and inventory in our exclusive, full-length analysis for luxury condos in Coral Gables & Coconut Grove this Q3 2021.

For the purpose of this Miami submarket luxury condo report, we've only included properties priced $1 million and above.

Q3 2021 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Highlights:

  • Record-setting Q3 2021 – slightly misses the mark on touching Q2's record-high – still posts strongest 3rd quarter sales in over 6 years with higher sales than Q1 2021
  • 142.3% growth in year-over-year sales
  • 12-month Sales Trendline stays positive from Q1 2021 through to Q3 2021
  • Price per Square Foot up 27.9% year-over-year to a peak of $689/Sq. Ft. -- still lowest entry point into Miami's luxury condo market
  • Sales Price up 22.9% year-over-year
  • Days on Market down -52% year-over-year
  • Inventory down 80.7% year-over-year to 5 months -- one of lowest in Miami, as is Fisher Island (5 months)
  • Coral Gables and Coconut Grove thrives as seller's market


Table of Contents

  1. Q3 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Sales Trends
  2. Q3 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Price Trends
  3. Q3 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
  4. Q3 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
  5. Q3 2021 Conclusion


Q3 2021 Luxury Condo Sales Trends - Highest Sales in a 3Q, Close to Q2-21 Record-High

Q3 2021 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2021

63

142.3%

$1,515,000

22.9%

$689

27.9%

62

Q3-2020

26

$1,232,500

$539

129


Record-setting sales for a 3rd quarter - 142.3% year-over-year growth - positive trendline.
Contributing to the positive sales trend seen in the overall Miami report for Q3 2021, the combined neighborhoods of Coral Gables and Coconut Grove report the highest number of sales in a third quarter since pre-2015 (Fig 2.1). Posting triple-digit growth, sales closed 142.3% higher compared to Q3 2020 and 162.5% higher than the pre-pandemic Q3 2019.

Considering the second quarter of the year is generally the strongest (as seen historically in Fig. 2.1), it is quite expected for sales to take a seasonal break in the third quarter. However, in a year of exceptions, it is interesting to note that quarter-over-quarter sales dipped only 8.7% between Q2 and Q3 this year. Still, sales were 57.5% higher than in Q1 this year. This clearly shows that luxury condos in this pair of beautiful neighborhoods continued to be in exceptionally high demand.


Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 2.1

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 2.1


Looking at the Monthly Sales chart of Fig. 2.2 below shows how third-quarter sales almost touched the record-highs of Q2 2021. Unlike the overall Miami market, where sales have consistently been dropping since April, sales were only 20% lower in July and September (20 sales each) compared to May's peak of 24 sales in a month. For this reason, fourth-quarter numbers will be key in determining whether this grouping will follow through with the seasonal dip we see in the overall Miami report or report similar highs (considering the international crowd-pulling Art Week Miami is due in December).

In any case, as real estate market experts, we expect luxury condos in Coral Gables and Coconut Grove to continue seeing high demand and close the year on a stronger note compared to any of the pre-pandemic years under review, in part because they are such specific niche markets.


Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 2.2

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 2.2


Owing to consistent sales performance, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 2.3 stays positive for a third consecutive quarter - keeping its upward angle from Q1 2021 through Q3 2021.


Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3


Luxury Condo Prices Up YoY - Both Price per Square Foot & Sales Price

Price per Square Foot peaks to $680, up 27.9% year-over-year. Median Sales Price up 22.9% year-over-year. Deviating from the overall market trend of higher year-over-year price per square foot and lower sales price, this combined neighborhood reports strong growth in both its Median Price per Square Foot as well as Median Sales Price.

The Price per Square Foot increased 27.9% year-over-year, moving up from $539 in Q3 last year to $689 for the same quarter of 2021. It is also slightly up from Q2 2021 (Fig. 3). The Median Sales Price posted an increase of 22.9% year-over-year, up from $1,232,500 in Q3 2020 to $1,515,000 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 1).


Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 3

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 3


At $689 per square foot, the price is now at its
highest point in the past 5 years. A look at the 5-year snapshot of quarterly price per square foot trends in Fig. 3 above shows how prices have been on a steady upward trajectory since Q4 2020 in this combined neighborhood. This shows that sellers are receiving excellent value for their luxury condo investments in Coral Gables & Coconut Grove.

However, with the lowest price per square foot of all the Miami neighborhoods under review, this pair of historically-significant neighborhoods make a great entry point into the luxury condo market in Miami. Buyers can hope to find some good value (compared to the beaches or Greater Downtown area) even in this strong seller's market as they search Coral Gables or Coconut Grove condos for sale here.


Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY

52% decline in year-over-year Days on Market (DOM). Consistent with the overall market trend of lower year-over-year Days on Market, this grouping posted a decrease in its quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year DOM. As a majority of the older market listings are sold, the DOM trend finally catches up to reflect the strong market momentum and fast market we've been seeing over the past few quarters (as opposed to posting higher DOM).

In Q3 2021, luxury condos in Coral Gables & Coconut Grove spent 67 fewer days on market compared to the same quarter of 2020, and 16 fewer days compared to the previous quarter this year (Fig. 4). As we have seen, properties are moving very quickly.


Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 4

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 4


Inventory Down to Lowest in Miami – Sellers' Market Prevails

Q3 closes with 5 months of Inventory. Reporting a new quarterly low of 5 months, inventory is down to its lowest of all the years under review (Fig. 5). With surging demand, the trend is lower quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year - just like the overall Miami market report for Q3 2021.

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory is down from 7 months in June 2021 to 5 months this September - a decline of 28.5%. On a year-over-year basis, inventory is down from 26 months in September 2020 - reporting a remarkable 81% drop in a one-year period. Comparing it to pre-pandemic levels, inventory is again down 81% over the last 26 months since September 2019 (Fig. 5).

The combined neighborhood of Coral Gables & Coconut Grove was one of the first districts in Miami to touch the 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market in Q1 2021 - setting expectations for the rest of the market to finally move out of a long-drawn buyer-friendly position. Posting a new low in Q3 2021, the combined district again reports one of the lowest months of inventory of all the Miami neighborhoods tracked in our overall analysis – shoulder-to-shoulder only with Fisher Island (also reporting 5 months this third quarter). This gives sellers complete control of dealings, as opposed to buyers taking the wheel, as we have seen over the past several years.

Buyers have been putting in highly competitive offers in this collective neighborhood, often above asking price this year, pushing median prices higher (as seen in Fig. 3 above). As real estate experts, we recommend sellers looking to move out of town or turning a profit on their investment properties to consider selling now to make the most of this highly favorable market.


Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 5

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 5


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

If you'd like a free market evaluation of your luxury property, please call, email, or chat to connect with one of our experienced local real estate professionals.

Q3 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Conclusion

This quarter, we see trends in the collective neighborhood of Coral Gables & Coconut Grove outperforming the Q3 2021 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Report. Sales report a record-breaking third quarter in over 6 years of our reporting, contributing significantly to the positive results seen in the overall market. Just like the overall market, although Q3 sales are lower than their all-time high in Q2, they are 1.5 times stronger than those of Q1 this year. This combined with a positive 12-month Sales Trendline from Q1 through Q3, gives us, as real estate experts, reason to expect this powerful momentum is going to last through the end of the year, closing 2021 on an exceptionally high note.

On the price front, the Price per Square Foot for this grouping posted year-over-year gains, like the overall market. At $689/Sq. Ft., although this grouping remains the most affordable entry-point into Miami's luxury condo market, prices are at their highest in over 5 years. This shows that the sellers' market, which officially started its reign in the previous quarter, is in full swing, giving sellers incredible value for their luxury condos.

Echoing the overall Miami trend again, Days on Market are lower quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year, capturing the feverish pace of this sub-market.

As expected, in terms of inventory, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove collectively reported one of the lowest levels of inventory in all of Miami, in line with exclusive Fisher Island, which also reports 5 months of inventory in Q3 2021. With numbers below the 9-12-month range of a balanced market, the market sits favoring sellers, with multiple buyers putting in offers that are higher than asking price.

Moving forward, we expect the following factors to come into play for this pair of historically significant neighborhoods over the last quarter of 2021:

  • As travel bans lift for vaccinated people ahead of Miami Art Week, more foreign buyers will have the chance to come forward and park their investments safely before the end of the year,
  • Miami's warm winter and tax savings will continue boosting business and people migration - keeping demand high,
  • As work-from-home becomes more widely acceptable, not all will be able to escape the charm of a stylish home with water views,
  • Even as new projects are being announced in droves, there will be a gap between project delivery and current availability, keeping inventory levels low for a few immediate cycles.



Questions or comments about the stats? Want more info on Miami condos? Contact Sep at sniakan@blackbookproperties.com or call 305-725-0566.

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