The explosive sales trend for Miami condo sales seen during the first quarter of 2021 has only grown in the second quarter of the year. Our Q2 2021 luxury condo market report for Greater Downtown Miami highlights unprecedented triple-digit growth over the previous quarter, and two sub-markets in this grouping reported incredible four-digit growth, while all three neighborhoods - Downtown Miami, Edgewater, and Brickell - all posted record-high sales.

In Q2, Brickell leads Miami's growth story, reporting the highest percentage increase in year-over-year sales of all neighborhoods under review in our Q2 2021 Overall Miami Condo Sales report. And, even though all 3 sub-markets report the highest levels of inventory in all of Miami and Miami Beach, they are at a record-low in the 5 years of our reporting.

The overall Miami market has already transitioned into a seller's market, and only this Greater Downtown Miami grouping is inches from turning over. With inventory at 9 months or lower, the overall market has moved on from its long-standing buyer's market to seller-friendly position, evidenced by increasing prices. Overall sales also are at a record-high. Collectively, this shows that buyers are no longer in control of dealings and sellers are receiving multiple, competitive offers on their listings.

Below is our exclusive and in-depth analysis on how Downtown Miami, Edgewater, and Brickell performed over Q2 2021, along with a detailed comparison to the overall Miami luxury condo trends in terms of sales, prices, days on market, and inventory.

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q2 2021 YoY (Number of Sales)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q2 2021 YoY (Median Sales Price)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q2 2021 YoY (Median SP/SqFt)

For this report, we've only included areas with zipcodes 33129, 33130, 33131, 33132, 33137 – essentially Brickell Hammock, Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown, Arts & Entertainment District, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown, and the Design District. This luxury condo market report only features properties priced at $1 million and above.

Q2 2021 - Greater Downtown Miami Area Luxury Condo Market Highlights

• Winner: Brickell, with incredible year-over-years sales growth of almost 1110%, increases in sales prices and price per square foot. 
• Downtown Miami posted a 1014% increase in sales, just behind Brickell
• 12-month Sales Trendline keeps positive from Q4 2020 through to Q2 2021
• Price per Square Foot up 11.7% to $729/sq. ft. – highest in 5 years
• Median Sales Price flat year-over-year
• Days on Market down 47.6% year-over-year
• Inventory drops 86.5% year-over-year to 15 months
• All 3 sub-markets – GDM, Edgewater, Brickell – report highest levels of inventory in all of Miami

Edgewater

• Sales boom 900% year-over-year
• 12-month Sales Trendline keeps positive from Q4 2020 through to Q2 2021
• Price per Square Foot up 11.9% to $718, offering value to sellers in the Greater Downtown Miami area
• Median Sales Price down 9.4% year-over-year
• Days on Market down 31% year-over-year
• Inventory drops 87.4% year-over-year to 15 months

Brickell

• Winner: Leads year-over-year sales growth in all of Miami with 1100% increase in Q2 2021, closely followed by Greater Downtown Miami
• 12-month Sales Trendline stays positive from Q4 2020 through to Q2 2021
• Price per Square Foot at $741, up 10.1% year-over-year
• Median Sales Price up 8.8% year-over-year
• Days on Market down 60.4% year-over-year
• Inventory down 85.7% year-over-year to 15 months

Table of Contents

1. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends
3. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
4. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
5. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
6. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
7. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
8. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
9. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
10. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
11. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
12. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
13. Conclusion
     

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Trends: Q2 Sales Set New Records

1014.3% growth in year-over-year sales + positive trendline. From a record-low in Q2 2020 to a record-high a year forward, sales in the Greater Downtown Miami area report a remarkable bounce back (Fig. 2.1). Contributing to the positive trends seen in the overall Miami report for Q2 2021, this collective neighborhood posts record-high sales, the highest seen in more than 6 years (and before from personal observation). It also registers the second-highest growth percentage of all Miami neighborhoods under review.

With a highly impressive 1014.3% year-over-year growth, half-year sales in Greater Downtown Miami have already outpaced the total annual sales from any preceding year under review (225 sales in 2021 > 108 annual sales of 2020, 122 in 2019, or 110 in 2018, see Fig. 2.1).

A look at the Monthly Sales chart of Fig. 2.2 below shows that sales gradually improved over the quarter. While April closed with 51 sales, May closed with 52, and June closed the quarter with 53 sales. Even compared to the pre-pandemic sales of 2019, monthly sales improved by 292-940%.

Owing to this consistent boom seen over the past three quarters, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 2.3 stays positive from Q4 2020 to Q1 2021 and now in Q2 2021.

What's driving these record sales? As discussed at length in our overall Miami luxury condo market report for Q2 2021, Florida's lack of income tax has made Miami a tax-saving destination of choice for businesses, high-income earners and high net worth individuals, and top-tier talent migrating from the Northeast, Midwest, and California. Add to that a bevy of foreign buyers, especially from Latin America, and this surge in demand is only expected to continue. Even as the luxury condo market enters its historically cool cycle next quarter, as Miami real estate experts, we still expect the market to outperform previous years. 

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 2.1

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Jun. 2021 - Fig. 2.2

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot Peaks to Highest in 5 years

Price per Square Foot up 11.7% to a record $729, Median Sales Price flat year-over-year. Deviating slightly from the trends seen in overall Miami, Greater Downtown posts flat-to-higher year-over-year prices versus the consistently higher prices of the overall report.

The Price per Square Foot increased 11.7% year-over-year, up from $652 in Q2 last year to $729 for the same quarter 2021. However, the Median Sales Price stayed flat year-over-year, adjusting slightly from $1,425,000 in Q2 2020 to $1,437,500 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 1).

A closer look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per square foot below (Fig. 3) reveals that luxury condo prices in Greater Downtown Miami are at a record-high - the highest in over 5 years.

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 3

Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY in Downtown Miami 

47.6% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. Keeping with the overall Miami luxury condo market trend, luxury condos in Greater Downtown Miami posted a reduction in their quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year Days on Market. Luxury condos spent 88 fewer days on the market compared to Q2 last year and 35 fewer days compared to the previous quarter (Fig. 4).

Although sales had been booming for the past two quarters, the Days on Market values increased in our last quarterly analysis. It appeared so, as more sellers re-listed or re-activated paused listings to take advantage of the favorable market conditions, thereby increasing the overall days that luxury condos spent on the market. In Q2 2021, however, a majority of these older listings have sold off, posting a significant reduction in the trend - appropriately reflecting the actual pace of the market.

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2021 – Fig. 4

Condo Inventory Down to Record-Low in Downtown Miami, Sellers at Advantage

Q2 2021 closes with 15 months of Inventory. Consistent with the overall market trend in Miami, inventory in this core urban neighborhood has dropped quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. At 15 months, inventory is down 86.5% from its peak of 111 months in June 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory is down 54.5% from 33 months in March.

Marking exceptional progress, inventory is down to an all-time low in Greater Downtown Miami – lowest in the 5 years of our reporting. This puts sellers at a great advantage in this core Miami neighborhood, as levels are closest to reaching the 9-12-month mark of a balanced market. Still sporting the highest inventory in all of Miami (lowest being 5 months for Fisher Island), buyers have a very slim window of opportunity to search the Greater Downtown Miami area and negotiate some good deals.

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Jun. 2021 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Edgewater Market Trends (33132 and 33137)

Edgewater Luxury Condo Sales Up YoY to Record-High

Q2 2021 sales grow 900% year-over-year + positive trendline. Reporting gains in sync with the overall Miami trend for Q2 2021, sales in Edgewater are 10 times those in Q2 2020 (Fig. 7.1). With the highest sales seen in a quarter in more than 6 years of our reporting, Edgewater posts a 900% increase in year-over-year volumes. 

Half-year sales in the waterfront neighborhood have outpaced the total sales of any preceding year under review – much like most other Miami neighborhoods. A closer look at Fig. 7.1 shows how half-year sales (95) in 2021 are already ahead of the total sales in 2020 (45), 2019 (37), or from even before. This reinforces the point that this year's growth is already larger than any pre-pandemic year. 

Owing to the incredible sales boom seen in Q4 2020 to Q1 2021 and now Q2 2021, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 7.2 keeps positive throughout.

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 7.1

Edgewater Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales Trendline - Fig. 7.2

Edgewater Price per Square Foot & Sales Price Mixed YoY

Price per Square Foot up 11.9% to $718, Median Sales Price down 9.4% year-over-year. Partly consistent with the overall market trend of higher year-over-year prices, Edgewater posts an increase in its Price per Square Foot but decline in Median Sales Price.

The Price per Square Foot for the neighborhood increased 11.9% - the highest percentage increase in year-over-year price per square foot in the Greater Downtown Miami area - up from $642 in Q2 2020 to $718 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 8).

On the other hand, the Median Sales Price declined 9.4% year-over-year, down from $1,490,000 in Q2 last year to $1,350,000 for the same quarter 2021 (Fig. 6). This inconsistency in price per square foot and sales price trends could be due to sales being dominated by smaller condos that offer better amenities, thereby closing on a higher price per square foot.

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly Price per Square Foot below reveals that prices closed in the higher ranges for Edgewater. With the last three quarters posting higher year-over-year prices, sellers in Edgewater are getting some of the best value for their luxury properties along with ample buyer demand, as we are seeing many deals close with multiple offers.

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 8

Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY in Edgewater

31% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. Following the overall market trend of lower year-over-year Days on Market, luxury condos in Edgewater spent 39 fewer days on the market (median) compared to Q2 last year, and 9 less days compared to the previous quarter (Fig. 9).

As mentioned above, this decline in days on market truly reflects the current market trend, with buyers and sellers quickly coming to a consensus, as opposed to the previous 2 quarters where the metric increased with properties being re-listed or re-activated, superficially inflating values.

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 9

Edgewater Inventory Down to Record-Low but One of Highest in Miami

Q2 closes with 15 months of Inventory. Keeping with the overall market trend in Miami, luxury condo inventory in Edgewater dropped quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. At 15 months, inventory is down 87.4% from its peak of 119 months in June 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory is down 48.3% from 29 months in March.

One of the fastest moving Miami neighborhoods in recent quarters, Edgewater posts the lowest inventory we've seen in over 5 years of our reporting. Although the overall Miami market has turned in favor of sellers, luxury condo inventory in this bayfront neighborhood still needs to settle down to the 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market. This gives buyers a very small window to negotiate some deals as they search Edgewater condos for sale.

Edgewater Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Jun 2021 - Fig. 10

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Brickell Market Trends (33129, 33130 and 33131)

Brickell Luxury Condo Sales Up YoY - Lead Growth in Miami Overall

1100% growth in year-over-year sales + positive trendline. Leading the overall Miami trend of higher year-over-year sales, Brickell posts an astounding 1100% increase in year-over-year volumes. Recording the highest sales seen in a quarter in more than 6 years of our reporting, this key business district outperforms Edgewater that was in the lead for the previous two quarters.

Just like most other Miami neighborhoods, half-year sales in Brickell have outpaced the annual sales of any preceding year under review. A closer look at Fig. 12.1 shows how half-year sales (130) in 2021 are higher than the total sales of 2020 (63), 2019 (85), and before. This supports that the growth we're seeing is already bigger than pre-pandemic years.

With sales consistently growing over the past three quarters, the 12-month Sales Trendline has stayed a soaring positive throughout Q4 2020, Q1 2021, and now Q2 2021 (Fig. 12.2).

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 12.1

Brickell Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2

Brickell Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot + Sales Price Up YoY

Price per Square Foot up 10.1% to $741, Median Price also up 8.8% year-over-year. Consistent with the overall market trend of higher year-over-year prices in Miami, Brickell also reports an uptick in both its Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price.

The Price per Square Foot in the financial district increased 10.1%, up from $673 in Q2 the previous year to $741 for the same quarter this year. The Median Sales Price also increased 8.8%, up from $1,381,250 in the second quarter of 2020 to $1,502,500 in Q2 this year (Fig. 11).

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per square foot below (Fig. 13) shows that prices closed in the higher ranges for the period under review – offering owners and investors good value for their properties.

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 13

Brickell Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY

60.4% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. Keeping with the overall market trend of lower year-over-year Days on Market, luxury condos in Brickell spent 157 fewer days on market (median) compared to Q2 2020, and 63 fewer days compared to the previous quarter (Fig. 14).

As mentioned earlier in this report, the decline seen in days on market is now reflecting the actual market trend, where buyers and sellers are quick in their dealings. This is the opposite of what we saw in the previous two quarters, where the increase in values was more or less due to properties being re-listed or re-activated, factoring in the "total" days spent on the market, including the days listings spent on pause.

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2021 - Fig. 14

Brickell Inventory Down to Record-Low, Still One of Highest in Miami

Q2 closes with 15 months of Inventory. In sync with the overall market trend in Miami, luxury condo inventory in Brickell is consistently lower quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year. At 15 months, inventory is down 85.7% from its peak of 105 months in June 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory is down 59.5% from 37 months in March.

With inventory at its lowest in over 6 years of our reporting, Brickell is closer than ever to reaching the ideal 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market. While the rest of the luxury condo market has already transitioned into a seller's market, buyers have a brief period of time to find deals as they search Brickell condos for sale here.

Brickell Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2017 to Jun. 2021 - Fig. 15

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Q2 2021 Greater Downtown Miami Market Conclusion

From triple-digit growth in the previous quarter to four-digit growth in Q2 2021, the Greater Downtown market is booming in sync with the overall Miami market. Although the second quarter of the year is known to be the strongest (suggested by historical data), the record-breaking numbers we see are beyond anything anyone could have expected.

Pushing out Edgewater, Brickell takes the lead this quarter – posting the highest percentage growth in year-over-year sales in Greater Downtown Miami as well as overall Miami. Half-year sales for all 3 sub-markets are already larger than the total annual sales in any preceding year under review, even pre-pandemic. This goes on to show that the market is not just posting gains against a low period, but even against some of the stronger cycles in the last 6 years.

With such a strong performance, the 12-month Sales Trendline keeps positive across the board, like the overall Miami market report for Q2 2021.

On the price front, luxury condos in Edgewater again turn out to offer sellers the best value out of all 3 sub-markets in this report – posting the highest percentage increase in year-over-year Price per Square Foot.

The Days on Market for luxury condos are finally lower across the board, echoing the overall Miami trend as well as the current market situation. This is mostly due to a majority of the older listings being sold this quarter, taking off luxury condos that were listed for longer or had paused and returned to make the most of a booming market. (Unlike the higher days on market we had been noting over the past two quarters, in spite of exceptional sales performance.)

With sales hitting record highs, inventory inevitably is making lower lows across the board. With the lowest months of inventory we have seen in more than five years of our reporting (and beyond from experience), this urban core is closer to transitioning into a seller's market. The overall Miami market trend, however, has already made that transition into favoring sellers. This means, of all the Miami and Miami Beach neighborhoods, buyers have a better chance of finding deals in this area (on paper at least).

Posting the strongest second-quarter in over 6 years, which is historically known to be the best-performing quarter of the year, we are expecting the market to take its cyclical break over the next half of the year. However, we still expect this year's cooler market cycle to be stronger than previous years due to the following:

• Businesses as well as people continue to flee high-tax states,
• Relaxed travel policies and ready availability of vaccinations is bringing more foreign buyers into their favorite (safe) investment haven in the U.S.
• Those allowed a permanent or hybrid work from home arrangement are ready-than-ever to build a life closer to the water or in a warmer tropical climate, and
• Inventory will take time to catch up to demand as fewer deliveries are scheduled in the immediate future.

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Questions or comments about the stats? Interested in browsing the market? Contact Sep at sniakan@blackbookproperties.com or call 305-725-0566.

Cover photo by Ryan Parker on Unsplash