Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Report -- Q3 2019

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Report -- Q3 2019

Nov 20, 2019 November 20, 2019

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CondoBlackBook.com’s luxury condo market report for Q3 2019 outlines how sales increased in Miami overall, median prices went down, and heavy inventory kept buyers in control. This report breaks down how neighborhoods in the Greater Downtown area fared individually, as well as compared to the Miami market as a whole.

For the purpose of this report, we’ve included areas with the Zip codes 33129, 33130, 33131, 33132, 33136, 33137 – essentially Downtown, Arts & Entertainment District, Edgewater, Midtown, Wynwood, Brickell, Brickell Key, and more. Further, this luxury condo market report only features properties priced $1 million and above.

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Market at a Glance (year over year)

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Market at a Glance (year over year)

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Q3 2019 Highlights:

  • Sales down year-over-year in all neighborhoods
  • Trailing 12-month sales trendline positive for all neighborhoods, except Edgewater
  • Price per sq. ft. lower than Q3 2018 in all neighborhoods
  • Median sales price higher than Q3 2018 throughout study
  • Brickell is most expensive at $606 per sq. ft.
  • Overall inventory declines, except in Edgewater
  • Edgewater has biggest share of luxury inventory at 103 months

Greater Downtown Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1

Greater Downtown Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1

Luxury Condo Sales Down

Quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year sales decline, but trendline stays positive. After a fine performance in Q2 this year, Greater Downtown reports a sharp 30% decline in sales in Q3. Year-over-year sales also decreased 17.6%, moving against the general trend of the luxury condo market in Miami. Both August and September registered low sales volumes, dragging down the quarter (fig. 2.3). However, Q2’s momentum proved generous enough to cover for this quarter’s slack and keep the trendline positive in fig. 2.2.

Quarterly Sales Heatmap - Fig. 2.1

Quarterly Sales Heatmap - Fig. 2.1

12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.2 

12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.2

Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2019 - Fig. 2.3

Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2019 - Fig. 2.3

Decline in Luxury Condo Prices

Price per sq. ft. at lowest since Q1 2016. In line with the overall market trend, Greater Downtown reports a decline in its price per sq. ft. The quarter-over-quarter prices decreased 9% ($654 versus $595), while year-over-year prices dipped 11.6% (fig. 3.1). Closing the quarter at a median price per sq. ft. of $595, this is Downtown Miami’s lowest price per square foot since Q1 2016 (fig. 3.1).

What’s interesting to note is that while the price per sq. ft. declined for the neighborhood, the median sales price increased from $1.39 million in Q3 2018 to $1.5 million this year. This could be due to the sale of more newly constructed condos, which are inherently more expensive for being up-to-date and amenity-rich.

Quarterly Price per sq. ft. 2016-2019 - Fig. 3.1

Quarterly Price per sq. ft. 2016-2019 - Fig. 3.1

Inventory Shrinks, But High Year-over-Year Levels Support Buyers

Inventory decreases to 54 months. Unlike the overall market trend, months of inventory not only came off its peak in March, but is also down from June end’s 65 months. At 54 months, inventory is higher than September 2018’s 49 months, as well as the 9-12 month ideal for a balanced market. This gives buyers a broad window of opportunity to explore the Greater Downtown Miami area here and land some outstanding deals.

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

*Starting this year, we are only considering properties priced $1 million and upwards for our luxury condo study, instead of the previous $600K benchmark. This means, that while our historical data compares to condos priced $600K and higher, starting March 2019, the numbers represent properties priced $1 million and higher only. 

Months of Inventory from Mar. 2017 to Sep. 2019 - Fig. 4.1

Months of Inventory from Mar. 2017 to Sep. 2019 - Fig. 4.1

Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Edgewater (33132 and 33137)


Edgewater Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 5

Edgewater Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 5

Sales Drop in Edgewater

Quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year sales continue descent with a negative trendline. Moving against the overall market trend, Edgewater reports a 12.5% decline in sales compared to Q2 2019, and 22.2% decline against Q3 2018 (fig. 5). The neighborhood has been experiencing a decrease in year-over-year sales since Q1 this year (fig. 6.1). This downtrend further shows its impact on the negative tracing trendline of fig. 6.2.

Edgewater Quarterly Sales Heatmap - Fig. 6.1

Edgewater Quarterly Sales Heatmap - Fig. 6.1

12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 6.2

12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 6.2

Luxury Condo Prices Below $600 Per Sq. Ft.

Year-over-year price drops to lowest per sq. ft. in Greater Downtown. In line with the overall luxury condo market trend of reducing prices, the median price per sq. ft. dropped 11.5% compared to Q3 2018. Closing the quarter at $586 per sq. ft., prices in Edgewater trended close to the minimum-range line of fig. 7 below.

Edgewater Quarterly Price per sq. ft. 2016-2019 - Fig. 7

Edgewater Quarterly Price per sq. ft. 2016-2019 - Fig. 7

Highest Levels of Inventory again Favor Buyers

Inventory increases to 103 months. Far exceeding the overall market trend, inventory levels in the Edgewater neighborhood rose to 103 months due to sluggish sales in Q1-Q3 this year and new construction. This makes Edgewater stand out as the neighborhood with the heaviest amount of inventory in Miami (according to our study).

This value is not only higher than June-end’s 102 months, but also the ideal 9-12 months of a balanced market. This presents a golden opportunity to acquire deals in an already well-priced luxury condo market. Search Edgewater condos for sale here.

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

*Starting this year, we are only considering properties priced $1 million and upwards for our luxury condo study, instead of the previous $600K benchmark. This means, that while our historical data compares to condos priced $600K and higher, starting March 2019, the numbers represent properties priced $1 million and higher only.

Edgewater Months of inventory from Mar. 2017 to Sep. 2019 - Fig. 8

Edgewater Months of inventory from Mar. 2017 to Sep. 2019 - Fig. 8

Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Brickell  (33129, 33130 and 33131)


Brickell Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 9

Brickell Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 9

Brickell Sees Dip in Luxury Condo Sales

Quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year sales decline, but trendline remains positive. Going against the overall market trend in Miami, Brickell posts a 34.4% drop in number of sales compared to Q2 2019, and a 16% dip in year-over-year sales (fig. 9). However, it is encouraging to see that Q3 reported higher sales compared to Q3 2017 and 2016 (fig. 10.1). Even the trendline in fig. 10.2 traces positively, showing that this business district has ample momentum leftover from a great second quarter this year.

Brickell Quarterly Sales Heatmap - Fig. 10.1

Brickell Quarterly Sales Heatmap - Fig. 10.1

Brickell 12-month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 10.2

Brickell 12-month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 10.2

Luxury Condo Prices per Square Foot Decrease in Brickell

Year-over-year price per sq. ft. down 11.3%. In sync with the overall market trend, the median price per sq. ft. dropped 9.8% from Q2 2019, and 11.3% against Q3 2018 (fig. 9). Ending the third quarter at $606 per sq. ft., the price is close to the lowest point of $602 from Q4 2017 (fig. 11). However, we caution against reading too much into this downward trend, since this dip is more likely due to a slowdown in sales rather than an actual drop in prices.

Brickell Quarterly Price per sq. ft. 2016-2019 - Fig. 11

Brickell Quarterly Price per sq. ft. 2016-2019 - Fig. 11 

Brickell Condo Inventory Declines to Lowest Since March 2017

Inventory down to 41 months. Moving against the overall Miami luxury condo market direction, Brickell’s inventory has adjusted to 41 months. This is significantly lower than June-end’s 52 months as well as September 2018’s 50 months. Still, inventory is a long way from its ideal 9-12-month mark, giving buyers the upper hand in negotiations as they look for Brickell condos for sale here.

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

*Starting this year, we are only considering properties priced $1 million and upwards for our luxury condo study, instead of the previous $600K benchmark. This means, that while our historical data compares to condos priced $600K and higher, starting March 2019, the numbers represent properties priced $1 million and higher only.

Brickell Condos Months of Inventory from Mar. 2017 to Sep. 2019 - Fig. 12

Brickell Condos Months of Inventory from Mar. 2017 to Sep. 2019 - Fig. 12

Conclusion

The luxury condo market in Greater Downtown Miami moved against the overall trend in Miami with a slow-paced third quarter. This impacted the price per sq. ft. as well. However, the high levels of inventory were in sync with the rest of the market, showing that buyers will still be in control.

However, just as we’ve mentioned in our overall market report, if buyers from high-tax states keep flowing in, sellers offer better deals, first-time condo buyers take advantage of historically low interest rates and incentive options, and with not much pre-construction inventory to add to the situation, we can likely expect to see a more balanced market going into the second half of 2020.



For a deeper dive into the process, click here to see the data and statistics that make up this luxury condo report.

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Have any questions? Or see something wrong with the stats? Please contact Sep at sniakan (at) hbroswell.com or call 305-725-0566.

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