Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Report Q3 2020

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CondoBlackBook.com's Q3 2020 market report for luxury condos in Greater Downtown Miami brings very good news for owners in Edgewater and those looking to call this great neighborhood home. This primarily residential neighborhood ticked all the boxes for growth and a comeback, showing great promise for the quarters ahead.
Not only did Edgewater rank as No. 1 in Miami for year-over-year sales growth, but it also posted the highest percentage growth in year-over-year sales prices compared to every other neighborhood part of our study. This, combined with lower days on market and inventory, shows that Edgewater is slowly shifting status from an up-and-coming neighborhood to one that has arrived with lasting value for residents and investors alike.

Looking into the overall Miami luxury condo market report for Q3 2020, we saw that sales have bounced back to report the strongest third quarter since 2015. We also saw that the median price per square foot grew year-over-year, offering sellers good value for their investments despite the pandemic. The days on market for luxury condos were flat compared to the previous year, showing that the pandemic had no lasting effect on buyer-seller dialogue. And, inventory expectedly increased year-over-year but reduced over the third quarter, giving us good reason to believe that it would decrease over Q4 and Q2 2021.

Read on for our exclusive and detailed analysis of how Downtown Miami, Brickell, and Edgewater performed in Q3 2020 compared to the overall Miami luxury condo trends for sales, prices, days on market and inventory.


Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2020 YoY (Median Sales Price)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2020 YoY (Median Sales Price)


Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2020 YoY (Median SP/SqFt)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2020 YoY (Median SP/SqFt)


Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2020 YoY (Number of Sales)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2020 YoY (Number of Sales)


For the purpose of this report, we've included areas with the zipcodes 33129, 33130, 33131, 33132, 33137 – essentially Brickell Hammock, Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown, Arts & Entertainment District, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District. Further, this luxury condo market report only features properties priced $1 million and above.


Greater Downtown Miami Area Luxury Condo Market Q3 2020 Highlights

  • Sales increase 20.7% year-over-year, reporting strong signs of a recovery
  • 12-month Sales Trendline shifts to positive in Q3 from negative in Q1 & Q2
  • Price per Square Foot up 14% year-over-year to $688/sq. ft.
  • Median Sales Price marginally up 2.3% year-over-year
  • Days on Market down 24.3% year-over-year
  • Inventory expectedly up 41.5% year-over-year, but 32.4% down from peak in Q2


Edgewater

  • Winner: Highest Sales growth of all Miami neighborhoods with impressive bounce-back, reports 114% increase year-over-year
  • 12-month trendline shifts from negative in Q2 to positive in Q3 2020
  • Price per Square Foot at record-high of $741, up 26.5% year-over-year
  • Highest growth in Median Sales Price out of all Miami neighborhoods, up 48.4% year-over-year
  • Biggest decline in Days on Market of all Miami neighborhoods, down 30.5% year-over-year
  • Inventory down 26.2% year-over-year, still highest in Miami


Brickell

  • Sales down 9.1% year-over-year
  • 12-month trendline improves from negative in Q2 to flat-ish in Q3 2020
  • Price per Square Foot. up 5.7% year-over-year
  • Median Sales Price up 4.8% year-over-year
  • Days on Market down 14.6% year-over-year
  • Inventory up 87.5% year-over-year, but 28.6% down from peak in Q2


Table of Contents

  1. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
  2. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends
  3. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
  4. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
  5. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
  6. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
  7. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
  8. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
  9. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
  10. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
  11. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
  12. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
  13. Conclusion


Q3-2020 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Market Summary

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2020

35

20.7%

$1,575,000

2.3%

$688

14.0%

134

Q3-2019

29

$1,540,000

$604

177


Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Trends: Q3 YoY Sales Up

20.7% growth in year-over-year Sales with positive trendline. Consistent with the Q3 sales trend in overall Miami, Greater Downtown posted a 20.7% increase in year-over-year sales. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, third-quarter sales (35) were 2.5 times higher than those in Q2 (14). This shows that pent up demand on hold due to the pandemic started coming through as soon as global markets re-opened.

A closer look at the Monthly Sales chart of Fig. 2.2 below reveals that momentum picked up towards the latter half of the quarter in this combined neighborhood. While July got off to a slower start (10 sales) compared to the same time last year (16 sales), August posted more than double last year's numbers (13 sales versus 6 sales). September also followed suit of almost double the growth, with 12 sales compared to the previous year's 7 sales.

Capturing this improvement in momentum, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 2.3 shifts from slanting negative in Q1 & Q2 to a positive in Q3 2020.

As real estate experts, we expect this momentum to carry through into the fourth quarter of 2020 as well as Q1 2021.


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2020 - Fig. 2.1

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2020 - Fig. 2.1


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 2.2

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 2.2


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3


Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot + Sales Price Up YoY

Price per Square Foot up 14% to $688, Median Sales Price up 2.3% year-over-year. Consistent with the price trends seen in the overall Miami 3Q 2020 report, luxury condos in Greater Downtown Miami report higher year-over-year prices as well.

The Price per Square Foot metric increased 14%, up from $604 in Q3 2019 to $688 for the same quarter this year. It also increased 5% quarter-over-quarter. The Median Sales Price increased marginally by 2.3%, up from $1,540,000 in Q3 last year to $1,575,000 this year (Fig. 1).

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per square foot below (Fig. 3) reveals that prices closed in the higher-range for the period under review.

What's further worth noting is that prices are trending higher in this core urban area along with an increase in sales volumes. This shows that not only are Greater Downtown Miami luxury condos much in demand, but sellers are also getting good value on their investments.


Greater Downtown Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 3

Greater Downtown Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 3


Days on Market Drops QoQ & YoY in Downtown Miami 

24.3% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. Moving against the overall Miami market trend of flat Days on Market, luxury condos spent 43 fewer days on the market compared to Q3 last year (Fig. 4). The metric also dropped by 51 days (median) from Q2 to Q3 2020. This is a very positive indication, showing great compatibility between buyer and seller expectations in the Greater Downtown Miami market.


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2020 – Fig. 4

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2020 – Fig. 4

Condo Inventory Almost at Pre-Pandemic Levels in Downtown Miami 

Q3 2020 closes with 75 months of Inventory. With sales rebounding, inventory levels came down over the third-quarter in Greater Downtown Miami. Consistent with the overall market trend in Miami, inventory in this core neighborhood declined quarter-over-quarter but was higher year-over-year.

Levels reduced 32.4% quarter-over-quarter, down from June-end's peak of 111 months to 75 this quarter-end. However, with the pandemic putting an expected pause on dealings, inventory increased 41.5% year-over-year, up from 53 months last September.

With inventory still far from adjusting down to its ideal 9-12-month mark of a balanced market, buyers hold the advantage of having the upper hand in negotiations. They have extended time to use this influence to capture the best deals in the neighborhood. To see the kind of luxury condos available, search the Greater Downtown Miami area here.


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 5

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 5


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Edgewater Market Trends (33132 and 33137)


3Q 2020 Edgewater Luxury Condo Market Summary – Fig. 6

3Q 2020 Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Market Summary

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2020

15

114.3%

$2,300,000

48.4%

$741

26.5%

123

Q3-2019

7

$1,550,000

$586

177


Edgewater Luxury Condo Sales Up YoY, Lead Growth in Miami Overall

Q3 2020 sales jump 114% with positive trendline. Leading the sales growth story in Miami, Edgewater emerges as the strongest of all neighborhoods under review this third quarter. As predicted in our Q2 2020 luxury condo report, Edgewater delivered on being one of the few Miami neighborhoods poised for an early bounce-back as markets re-opened.

Not only did sales soar 114% year-over-year, volumes more than doubled quarter-over-quarter in Edgewater (Fig. 7.1). This boost in momentum is captured by the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 7.2, as it went from negative in Q2 to positive this Q3 2020.


Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2020 - Fig. 7.1

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2020 - Fig. 7.1


Edgewater Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 7.2

Edgewater Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 7.2


Edgewater Price per Square Foot Record-High, Sales Price Up with Highest YoY Growth in Miami

Price per Square Foot up 26.5% to $741, Median Sales Price up 48.4% year-over-year. Consistent with the overall trend of increasing prices in Miami, Edgewater tops the list with the highest percentage growth in its year-over-year Median Sales Price of all the neighborhoods in our study. This, after reporting the highest percentage increase in Price per Square Foot in the previous quarter -- showing that sellers in this emerging neighborhood continued getting great value for their luxury condos despite the pandemic.

The Price per Square Foot. increased 26.5%, up from $586 in the third quarter last year to $642 this year (Fig. 8). Following suit, the Median Sales Price also increased an impressive 48.4%, up from $1,550,000 in Q3 last year to $2,300,000 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 6).

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per square foot below interestingly reveals that after inching higher through the first two quarters, the Median Price per Square Foot is now at its highest ever. Such an increase, coupled with a surge in sales momentum, highlights the fact that Edgewater's luxury condos are not only attracting buyers but also fetching great value for investors. This is partly due to the many new construction luxury condo options available in the bayfront neighborhood.


Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 8

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 8


Edgewater Days on Market Down YoY With Biggest Drop in Miami Overall

30.5% drop in year-over-year Days on Market. In contrast with the overall market trend of flat year-over-year Days on Market, Edgewater's luxury condos spent 54 fewer days on market (median) compared to Q3 last year, and 4 fewer days compared to Q2 this year (Fig. 6).

Posting the biggest decline in Median Days on Market of all the Miami neighborhoods included in our overall study, this is a very positive indicator, showing that buyers and sellers continued having smoother interactions as the year progressed.


Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 9

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 9


Edgewater Inventory Down YoY, Still Highest in Miami

Q3 closes with 76 months of Inventory. The outstanding sales momentum seen this third-quarter brings down the months of inventory rather quickly in this residential neighborhood. Going against the overall market trend of higher year-over-year numbers, Edgewater's luxury condo inventory declined 26.2% against last September's 103 months and 36.1% against June's peak of 119 months.

At 76 months, Edgewater still has the heaviest inventory of all the Miami neighborhoods included in our study. This gives buyers a big window of opportunity to negotiate deals in their favor. To see what kind of luxury inventory is available, search Edgewater condos for sale here.


Edgewater Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep 2020 - Fig. 10

Edgewater Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep 2020 - Fig. 10


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Brickell Market Trends (33129, 33130 and 33131)


3Q 2020 Brickell Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 11

3Q 2020 Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Market Summary

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2020

20

-9.1%

$1,525,000

4.8%

$647

5.7%

135

Q3-2019

22

$1,455,000

$612

158


Brickell Luxury Condo Sales Up QoQ, Down YoY, But Stable Volume

Q3 2020 sales down 9.1% year-over-year, but still stable with flat-to-positive trendline. Although Brickell posts a decline in year-over-year sales percentage, a closer look at the volumes in Fig. 12.1 shows that Q3 was only short 2 sales compared to the same quarter last year. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, sales are 2.5 times higher compared to Q2, showing tremendous growth with the re-opening of global markets post-pandemic.

This improvement in market momentum is further captured in the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 12.2 that shifts up from a negative in Q2 to flat-positive this third-quarter.


Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2020 - Fig. 12.1

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2020 - Fig. 12.1


Brickell Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2

Brickell Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2


Brickell Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot + Sales Price Up YoY

Price per Square Foot up 5.7% at $647, Median Price increases 4.8% year-over-year. Consistent with the overall market trend in Miami, Brickell reported a year-over-year increase in both its Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price.

The Price per Sq. Ft. increased 5.7%, up from $612 in Q3 last year to $647 this year. The Median Sales Price too went up 4.8%, from $1,455,000 in Q3 last year to $1,525,000 this year (Fig. 11).

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per square foot below (Fig. 13) reveals that prices closed in the lower ranges for the period under review.


Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 13

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 13


Brickell Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY

14.6% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. In contrast to the overall market trend in Miami of flat year-over-year days on market, luxury condos spent 23 fewer days on the market compared to Q3 last year and a good 125 fewer days compared to the previous quarter. This normalization in metrics after peaking Q2 is a positive sign for this business-centric neighborhood, showing that buyers and sellers were quicker to agree upon dealings.


Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2020 - Fig. 14

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2020 - Fig. 14


Brickell Inventory Up YoY, But Down QoQ

Q3 closes with 75 months of Inventory. Just like the overall market report, inventory in Brickell is higher year-over-year, but dropped quarter-over-quarter to almost touch pre-pandemic levels. Luxury condo inventory is 87.5% higher year-over-year, up from 40 months last September. However, good sales momentum brings levels down 28.6% over this third-quarter, reducing from June's peak of 105 months.

Even as this financial district shows signs of recovery like the rest of Greater Downtown Miami, inventory will take a while to adjust down to its ideal level of 9-12 months for a balanced market. Until then, buyers have ample time and choices to drive deals in their favor. To search for available Brickell luxury condos for sale, click here.


Brickell Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2017 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 15

Brickell Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2017 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 15


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


3Q 2020 Downtown Miami Market Conclusion

Considering the impact of the pandemic on Q2 numbers in Greater Downtown Miami, it was expected that the market would take a few cycles before posting a recovery. However, these third-quarter results report a striking improvement with signs of a quicker-than-expected recovery for not just this grouping, but overall Miami as well.

Edgewater deserves a special mention for not only posting the highest percentage growth in sales, but also sales prices compared to all other neighborhoods in our study. It also showed up with the biggest decrease in Days on Market and lower levels of inventory, showing great buyer-seller dialogue and value for owners/investors, and that this is truly Miami's next great neighborhood.

On the whole, sales in the Greater Downtown area were mostly up, much like the overall Miami luxury condo market this quarter, with only Brickell deviating slightly from this positive trend. As a result, the 12-month sales trendline was up or flat (only in Brickell), showing that this momentum should easily carry into Q4.

Prices were up across the board, much like overall Miami. Also, the days on market were down across the board (unlike a flat overall trend). Both these metrics, combined with good sales volumes, shows that buyers and sellers were quick in their dealings in Greater Downtown Miami and that sellers got good value on their luxury investments irrespective of the pandemic.

As expected, inventory was up across the board, with only Edgewater as an exception – also with the highest inventory in Miami. However, looking at the Q3 trends plus our own observations in the current market, we strongly believe that inventory levels will easily come down over Q4 and Q1 2021.

With most of the pent-up demand from Q1 and Q2 coming through this third quarter, the luxury condo market in Miami shows good signs of a recovery with only the Presidential elections to watch for. Nonetheless, we expect higher demand over the next two quarters from:

  • those migrating from high-tax states,
  • those looking to escape to warmer winters,
  • those working from home, now with greater flexibility to build a life closer to the beach without compromising on work, and
  • those who had been waiting for travel restrictions to ease up before making a final call on closings.

Until then, buyers can enjoy the luxuries and leverage a favorable market with ample inventory brings along, and ultimately negotiate terms and prices down to better suit their preferences in Greater Downtown.

Metric

Overall Miami

GDM

Edgewater

Brickell

Sales

Up

Up

Up

Down

Sales Trendline

Flat

Up

Up

Flat-ish

(slightly positive)

Price/Sq. Ft.

Up

Up

Up

Up

Days on Market

Flat

Down

Down

Down

Inventory

Up

Up

Down

Up


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Questions or comments about the stats? Interested in browsing the market? Contact Sep at sniakan (at) hbroswell.com or call 305-725-0566.

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