Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Report Q3 2021 - Edgewater Leads Miami Growth

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Report Q3 2021 - Edgewater Leads Miami Growth

Nov 05, 2021 November 05, 2021

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A strong third quarter finally pushed Greater Downtown Miami into being a complete sellers' market. It is now in step with the Q3 2021 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market, which had turned over from a buyer-friendly position in the previous quarter. With Q3 2021 sales just slightly below the second quarter's record highs, this Greater Downtown market is still very strong and showing few signs of slowing as we move into the final quarter of the year.

Brickell had the most sales volume of any of the Greater Downtown Miami sub-neighborhoods (91 sales). Edgewater led sales growth in Miami this third quarter, after switching positions briefly with Brickell in the previous quarter (which was No. 1 in Q2 this year in terms of sales growth). As both sub-markets post triple-digit growth, Brickell takes the second lead in terms of sales growth in Q3 2021. Such incredible momentum keeps the 12-month sales trendline positive across the board, leading to the expectation that 2021 will close on an exceptionally strong note.

In Q3, inventory is down to a new all-time low in the more than 6 years of our reporting (and prior from experience). This shows that the sellers' market is here to stay for the next few cycles, especially the market waits for new pre-construction deliveries that will take a few years.  With prices posting mixed trends, we recommend buyers to put in strong offers (expect to be over-asking price) in order to secure the luxury condo of their choice. Sellers, on the other hand, can continue enjoying the leverages of a favorable market and look to turn a profit on their luxury condo investments or second homes.


A quick summary of Q3 2021 for the Greater Downtown Miami area includes:

  • Brickell had the most sales volume (91 sales)
  • Edgewater had the greatest sales growth YoY (386%)
  • Downtown Miami posted the highest median sales price ($1.5 million)
  • Brickell posted the highest price per square foot ($762)


Read further for our exclusive and in-depth analysis on how Greater Downtown, Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown Miami performed over Q3 2021, along with a detailed comparison to the overall Miami luxury condo + pre-pandemic trends in terms of sales, prices, days on market, and inventory.
 


Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2021 YoY (Number of Sales)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2021 YoY (Number of Sales)


Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2021 YoY (Median Sales Price)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2021 YoY (Median Sales Price)


Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2021 YoY (Median SP/SqFt)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2021 YoY (Median SP/SqFt)


For this report, we've only included areas with zipcodes 33129, 33130, 33131, 33132, 33137 – essentially Brickell Hammock, Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Arts & Entertainment District, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District
. This luxury condo market report only features properties priced $1 million and above, and generally does not include pre-construction condo sales.


Q3 2021 - Greater Downtown Miami Area Luxury Condo Market Highlights

  • Highest sales in a 3rd quarter with 331.4% year-over-year growth – Edgewater and Brickell are the highest percentage contributors
  • 12-month Sales Trendline stays positive for 4 consecutive quarters -- Q4 2020 through to Q3 2021
  • Price per Square Foot up 8.9% year-over-year to a peak of $750 -- highest in more than 5 years
  • Median Sales Price down 14.3% year-over-year
  • Days on Market down year-over-year
  • Inventory down 86.7% year-over-year to a new low of 10 months
  • All 3 sub-markets –Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown – still report highest levels of inventory in all of Miami
  • Greater Downtown along with all 3 sub-markets is now a sellers' market


Greater Downtown Sub-neighborhood Highlights – Q3 2021:

  • Winner: Edgewater leads Q3 sales growth in Greater Downtown and Miami overall with highest percentage (386%) year-over-year increase
  • 12-Month Sales Trendline is positive across the board
  • Winner: Brickell luxury condos offered maximum value to sellers in Greater Downtown Miami with highest percentage growth (18%) in year-over-year Price per Sq. Ft.
  • Downtown Miami reports highest Median Sales Price of $1.5 million in Greater Downtown
  • Brickell is the most expensive neighborhood in Greater Downtown, priced at $762/Sq. Ft.
  • Brickell posts highest percentage decline in year-over-year Days on Market (-42%), while Edgewater reports highest percentage increase (13%) in Greater Downtown
  • Brickell and Downtown report the lowest inventory (10 months) in Greater Downtown
  • Edgewater inventory still highest of all Miami neighborhoods under review


Table of Contents

  1. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
  2. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends
  3. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
  4. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
  5. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
  6. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
  7. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
  8. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
  9. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
  10. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
  11. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
  12. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
  13. Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
  14. Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
  15. Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
  16. Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
  17. Conclusion 

Q3-2021 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2021

151

331.4%

$1,350,000

-14.3%

$750

8.9%

84

Q3-2020

35

$1,575,000

$688

134


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Trends: New Record in 3Q Sales

Record 3rd quarter sales - 331.4% year-over-year growth - positive trendline. Echoing and contributing to the positive sales trend seen in the overall Miami report for Q3 2021, this mainland grouping reports the highest volume of sales in a third quarter since before 2015 (Fig 2.1). Reporting a 331.4% jump in year-over-year sales, and even higher 420.7% jump over pre-pandemic sales in Q3 2019, the Greater Downtown area shows immense growth with all 3 sub-neighborhoods contributing high volumes.

Considering that the second quarter of the year is usually the strongest (as noted from past data in Fig. 2.1), it was expected for sales to take a seasonal break this quarter. However, it is interesting to note that sales dipped only 6.8% between Q2 and Q3 this year while increasing 118.8% over Q1 2021. This shows how luxury condos in the Greater Downtown area are in great demand and have continued enjoying intense momentum.

A look at the Monthly Sales chart of Fig. 2.2 below gives a little more insight into the market movement, and shows that numbers gradually declined after peaking with 64 sales in July 2021. Down to 37 sales for the month of September, volumes declined by 42.2% from their July peak. This is in line with the monthly sales trend seen in the overall market report, where sales have been consistently decreasing since April this year. Here are a few possible reasons for this month-to-month decline:

  • the market is taking a seasonal breather (also seen in previous years in Fig. 1.2), or
  • the luxury condo market hit a ceiling in July and numbers are now correcting to their regular pace.

That is why it will be important to note how the market progresses over the fourth quarter, especially in response to Art Week pulling in the global elite, to see whether this will be a permanent correction or only a seasonal dip. Nonetheless, as real estate market experts, we expect Miami's luxury condo market to close the year on an exceptionally strong note, in line with the pace of the rest of the year.

Considering this consistent sales performance, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 2.3 stays expectedly positive. Maintaining its upward trajectory for a fourth consecutive quarter, the trendline has stayed positive from Q4 2020 through to Q3 2021.


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 2.1

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 2.1


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep 2021 - Fig. 2.2

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep 2021 - Fig. 2.2


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot Peaks to Highest in 5 years, Median Sales Price Drops

Price per Square Foot up 8.9% to a new peak of $750, Median Price down -14.3% year-over-year. In line with the mixed price trends seen in overall Miami, Greater Downtown reports an increase in its year-over-year price per square foot and a decline in median sales price.

The Price per Square Foot increased 8.9% year-over-year, up from $688 in Q3 last year to $750 for the same quarter 2021. It is also slightly up from $724/square foot in Q2 2021 (Fig. 3). On the other hand, the Median Sales Price declined by 14.3% year-over-year, down from $1,575,000 in Q3 2020 to $1,350,000 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 1).

This difference in Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price trends could possibly be due to more sales of smaller luxury condos (in size) that pack in more amenities, commanding a higher price per square foot even as the median price declined.

A closer look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per square foot below (Fig. 3) reveals that luxury condo prices in Greater Downtown Miami touched a brand-new high in Q3 2021. At $750/Sq. Ft., the price per square foot stood at its highest in over 5 years. On an upward trend since Q4 2021, price improvements in the neighborhood have been providing sellers excellent value for their luxury condos in Greater Downtown.


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 3

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 3


Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY in Greater Downtown Miami 

37.3% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. Consistent with the overall Miami luxury condo market trend, luxury condos in Greater Downtown Miami posted a drop in quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year Days on Market (DOM). With most of the older listings sold off, the metric is reducing in sync with the pace of the market this third quarter, as opposed to its irregular pace in the past few quarters.

In Q3 2021, luxury condos spent 50 fewer days on the market compared to Q3 last year and 14 fewer days compared to Q2 this year (Fig. 4).


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2021 – Fig. 4

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2021 – Fig. 4


Condo Inventory Down to New Low in Greater Downtown Miami, Now Sellers' Market

Q3 2021 closes with 10 months of Inventory. In sync with the overall market trend in Miami, inventory in this urban core declined quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year. At 10 months, inventory decreased 86.7% year-over-year, down from 75 months in September 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory is down 28.6% from 14 months in June.

One of the last Miami submarkets to turn into a seller's market, this urban core (Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown Miami) now holds its lowest months of inventory in over 5 years of our reporting. (The beaches plus Coral Gables & Coconut Grove had already touched the ideal 9-12-month benchmark in the previous quarters.) Still, with one of the highest levels of inventory in Miami, buyers can hope to find some advantage in terms of choices as they search the Greater Downtown Miami area for available condos for sale.


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep 2021 - Fig. 5

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep 2021 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Edgewater Market Trends (33132 and 33137)

Q3 2021 Edgewater Luxury Condo Market Summary – Fig. 6

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2021

34

385.7%

$1,252,500

-6.9%

$744

4.5%

68

Q3-2020

7

$1,345,000

$711

60


Edgewater Luxury Condo Sales Up YoY – Lead Sales Growth in Miami Overall

Highest 3rd quarter sales - 385.7% growth year-over-year - positive trendline. Leading sales growth in Miami, luxury condos in Edgewater report a 385.7% gain in sales compared to Q3 2020. Consistent with and contributing to the positive sales trend seen in the overall Miami report for Q3 2021, Edgewater also posted an astounding 580% increase over pre-pandemic sales in Q3 2019 (Fig. 7.1). With a total of 34 sales in a quarter, this bayfront neighborhood reported its highest sales seen in a third quarter in more than 6 years. 

As the second quarter of the year is generally the strongest (as seen in Fig. 7.1), it was expected of the market to take a seasonal break. However, interestingly, sales are only 17.1% lower compared to Q2 this year and double those in Q1 2021. This reinforces the point that Edgewater's luxury condo market is seeing exceptional demand, way ahead of any previous year under review (or before by personal experience).

Owing to incredible sales seen over the past couple of quarters, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 7.2 keeps its positive trajectory from Q4 2020 through to Q3 2021.


Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 7.1

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 7.1


Edgewater Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales Trendline - Fig. 7.2

Edgewater Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales Trendline - Fig. 7.2


Edgewater Prices Report Mixed Trends

Price per Square Foot up 4.5% to $744, Median Sales Price down 6.9% year-over-year. In line with the mixed price trends reported in the overall market analysis this third quarter, Edgewater posted an increase in its Price per Square Foot and a decline in Median Sales Price.

The Price per Square Foot for the neighborhood increased 4.5% - up from $711 in the third quarter of last year to $744 for the same quarter of 2021 (Fig. 8). On the other hand, the Median Sales Price declined 6.9% year-over-year - down from $1,345,000 in Q3 of the previous year to $1,252,500 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 6).

This variance in Price per Square Foot and Sales Price trends could be due to sales being dominated by smaller condos with better amenities, which tend to close on a higher price per square foot.

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly Price per Square Foot below reveals that prices again closed in the higher ranges for Edgewater. With prices slightly higher than Q1 and Q2 this year, it's clear that sellers in Edgewater are getting good value for their luxury properties, as most deals are closing with multiple, highly competitive offers.


Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 8

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 8


Days on Market Down QoQ, Almost Flat YoY in Edgewater

13% increase in year-over-year Days on Market. Slightly deviating from the overall market trend of lower year-over-year Days on Market, luxury condos in Edgewater spent 92 fewer days on the market (median) compared to Q2 this year, but 8 extra days compared to Q3 in the previous year (Fig. 9).


Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 9

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 9


Edgewater Inventory Down to Record-Low but One of Highest in Miami

Q3 closes with 12 months of Inventory. Following the overall market trend in Miami, luxury condo inventory in Edgewater declined quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year. At 12 months, inventory is down a remarkable 88.5% from 104 months in September 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory is down 45.5% from 22 months in June this year.

With inventory at its lowest in over 6 years of our reporting and now within the 9-12-month benchmark of an ideal market, Edgewater has turned into a sellers' market. It is in step with the rest of Miami (read the beaches plus Coral Gables & Coconut Grove). This means sellers are in control of negotiations and have multiple, immensely profitable offers to choose from in Edgewater.

As a top seller's brokerage and agent in Edgewater, we can provide a free evaluation of your luxury condo and position it to attract competitive offers. You can call, chat, or e-mail us and an expert, local real estate agent will help you.


Edgewater Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep 2021 - Fig. 10

Edgewater Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep 2021 - Fig. 10

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Brickell Market Trends (33129, 33130 and 33131)

Q3 2021 Brickell Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 11

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2021

91

355.0%

$1,372,969

-10.0%

$762

17.9%

78

Q3-2020

20

$1,525,000

$646

135


Brickell Luxury Condo Sales Up YoY – Second-highest Growth in Miami Overall

Record-high 3rd quarter - 355% increase in year-over-year sales - positive trendline. Posting the second-highest sales growth in Miami overall, Brickell reports a 355% gain in sales compared to Q3 last year. Contributing to the positive sales trend seen in the overall Miami report, Brickell also posts an impressive 328.6% increase over pre-pandemic sales in Q3 2019 (Fig. 12.1). With a total of 91 sales in a quarter, this financial district reports its highest sales seen in a third-quarter in more than 6 years of our reporting.

Even with the market taking its seasonal break (as seen in Fig. 12.1 for previous years), and Q3 posting only 8% fewer sales compared to Q2 this year, the market is seeing immense momentum as Q3 sales outdo Q1 2021 by 183.8%. This supports the point that this market is stronger than ever and perhaps only correcting for the moment before regaining pace next summer.

Considering this dramatic sales growth, it is quite expected to see the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 12.2 keep its positive trajectory from Q4 2020 through to Q3 2021. 


Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 12.1

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 12.1


Brickell Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2

Brickell Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2


Luxury Condos in Brickell Post Mixed Price Trends

Price per Square Foot up 17.9% to $762, Median Sales Price down 10% year-over-year. Consistent with the mixed price trends seen in the overall market, Brickell also reported an uptick in its Price per Square Foot but a decline in Median Sales Price.

The Price per Square Foot in this financial district increased 17.9% - up from $646 in the third quarter of 2020 to $762 for the same quarter this year. On the other hand, the Median Sales Price decreased 10% year-over-year - down from $1,525,000 in the third quarter of the previous year to $1,372,969 for the same quarter of 2021 (Fig. 11).

This inconsistency in Price per Square Foot and Sales Price trends could be attributed to a higher sales volume of smaller (in size) condos with better amenities that command a higher price per square foot.

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per square foot below (Fig. 13) shows that prices closed in the higher ranges for the period under review – almost touching the peak of Q1 2020 ($769/Sq. Ft.) - offering owners and investors great value for their luxury condos as buyers put in multiple offers.


Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 13

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 13


Brickell Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY

42% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. In sync with the market's pace and overall market trend of lower year-over-year Days on Market, luxury condos in Brickell spent 57 fewer days on market (median) compared to Q3 2020, and 25 fewer days compared to the previous quarter (Fig. 14).

As mentioned earlier in this report, it seems that most of the oldest listings have sold off, reducing the Days on Market metric in line with the pace of the market, as buyers are meeting (and even exceeding) sellers' price expectations. 


Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2021 - Fig. 14

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2021 - Fig. 14


Brickell Inventory Down to New Low

Q3 closes with 10 months of Inventory. Keeping with the overall market trend of consistently lower months of inventory, Brickell also posted a decline in its quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year values. At 10 months, inventory is down an impressive 86.7% from 75 months in September 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory is down 28.6% from 14 months in June this year.

With inventory at its lowest in over 6 years of our reporting and within the 9-12-month range of a balanced market, a sellers' market is emerging in Brickell, like the rest of Miami. This means sellers are gaining control of prices and buyers need to put in highly competitive offers (essentially over asking price) to buy the luxury condo of their choice.


Brickell Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2017 to Sep 2021 - Fig. 15

Brickell Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2017 to Sep 2021 - Fig. 15


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Downtown Miami Market Trends (33128, 33132 and 33136)

Q3 2021 Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 15

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2021

26

225.0%

$1,512,500

-58.1%

$747

-8.2%

135

Q3-2020

8

$3,613,000

$814

170


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Sales Up to Record-High

Highest quarterly sales - 225% year-over-year growth - positive trendline. Recording its highest quarterly sales in more than 6 years of our reporting, this central business district reported a 225% gain compared to Q3 last year. In step and contributing to the positive sales trend seen in the overall Miami report, volumes incredibly increased 13 times over those in the pre-pandemic Q3 of 2019 (Fig. 16.1).

With a total of 26 sales in a quarter, this central business district reported an 18.2% increase over Q2 this year and a 44.5% increase over Q1 2021. This shows that luxury condos in Downtown Miami continued enjoying exceptional demand, with sellers receiving multiple, highly competitive offers.

Considering this exceptional performance, it is expected for the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 12.2 to post a positive curve this third quarter.


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 16.1

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 16.1


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 16.2

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 16.2


Both Price per Square Foot & Sales Price Down YoY for Condos in Downtown Miami

Price per Square Foot down 8.2% to $747, Median Price also down 58.1% year-over-year. Deviating slightly from the higher Price per Square Foot and lower Median Sales Price trends seen in the overall market, Downtown Miami reported a reduction in both values.

The Price per Square Foot decreased 8.2% - down from $814 in Q3 of the previous year to $747 for the same quarter this year. The Median Sales Price dropped 58.1% - down from $3,613,000 in the third quarter of 2020 to $1,512,500 a year forward (Fig. 15). However, this drop was based on a relatively small number of very high-priced sales seen in the third quarter of 2020 (see Fig. 15), creating an outlier.

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per square foot below (Fig. 17) shows that prices still closed in the higher ranges for the period under review. Interestingly, prices were higher than Q4 last year, as well as Q1 and Q2 this year, showing that sellers still received good value for their luxury condos.


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 17

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 17


Downtown Miami Days on Market Up QoQ, Down YoY

21% decrease in year-over-year Days on Market. Deviating from the overall market trend of lower quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year Days on Market, luxury condos in Downtown Miami spent 88 extra days on the market (median) compared to Q2 this year, but 35 fewer days compared to Q3 in 2020 (Fig. 18).

A closer look at Fig. 18 below reveals that the Days on Market trend spiked this third quarter. This uptick could possibly be due to more sellers re-activating their paused listings, looking to reap the benefits of this favorable sellers' market, instead of an actual mismatch in buyer-seller expectation.


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2021 - Fig. 18

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2021 - Fig. 18


Downtown Miami Inventory Down to New Low

Q3 closes with 10 months of Inventory. In sync with the overall market trend of consistently lower months of inventory, Downtown Miami posts a reduction in its quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year values. At 10 months, inventory is down an incredible 86.3% from 73 months in September 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory is down 28.6% from 14 months in June.

With inventory at its lowest of all the years under review and within the 9-12-month range of a balanced market, Downtown Miami is turning into a seller-friendly market like the rest of Miami. This spells great news for sellers in the area, as they continue enjoying highly competitive offers from multiple buyers, giving owners and investors utmost control over prices and negotiations.


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2017 to Sep 2021 - Fig. 19

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2017 to Sep 2021 - Fig. 19


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Q3 2021 Greater Downtown Miami Market Conclusion

With businesses and high net worth individuals continuing their migration to Miami, it seems people are choosing to live/invest closer to Miami's main business districts. This is supported by the fact that Edgewater and Brickell top popularity charts for Q3 2021, as they continue leading sales growth out of all the Miami neighborhoods under review in our overall Miami luxury condo report

Choosing a home closer to or in the "Wall Street of the South" seems to be a trend that is gaining in popularity, even over Miami's favorite beachside neighborhoods. Case in point, growth-wise, both Edgewater and Brickell top the sales leaderboard with 386% and 355% year-over-year increases in volumes, outperforming South Beach (Miami Beach's leading neighborhood for sales growth in Q3 2021) that gets third place with a 277% year-over-year increase. Volume-wise, Brickell posts 91 sales for the quarter, overtaking South Beach's 83 sales, and just behind Sunny Isles Beach's 133 sales in Q3 2021.

Expectedly, this astounding sales momentum keeps the 12-Month Sales Trendline positive for all neighborhoods, leading to the expectation that the last quarter of 2021 could close on a stronger note than in any of the previous years under review.

On the price front, luxury condos in Brickell turned out to offer sellers the best value out of all 3 sub-markets in Greater Downtown Miami – posting the highest percentage increase in year-over-year Price per Square Foot.

The Days on Market for luxury condos are finally catching up to market momentum, lowering to reflect the true pace of the market – with the exception of Edgewater that posted an increase in year-over-year values. As explained above in this report, this increase is mostly due to paused listings returning on the market, creating an illusionary high considering their overall days spent on the market.

With sales closing at new highs for a third-quarter across the board, inventory inevitably is making lower lows in all 3 sub-markets. Even as inventory dips to its lowest in more than 6 years of our reporting (and before from experience, Greater Downtown Miami holds the highest levels of inventory compared to Miami Beach or Coral Gables & Coconut Grove. This gives buyers a bit of an edge (on paper at least) to find a luxury condo closer to their price expectation.

Continuing with strong sales in Q3 2021, which is when the market starts to cool down historically after a high-performing second quarter, questions such as "has the market hit a ceiling?" or "will the luxury condo market bounce back with more record-highs after this seasonal stalling?" are expected to be answered next quarter. Until then, as real estate experts, we expect the following to help close the year on its strongest note in over half a decade:

  • With travel opening for all vaccinated travelers in time for Art Week and the holidays, more buyers from South America and the rest of the world are expected to land in Miami,
  • More people looking to escape harsh cold winter from up north will migrate to the warmth of South Florida, nudged by work-from-home becoming more acceptable generally,
  • Major tax savings will continue attracting businesses and high net worth individuals from the Northeast and California,
  • Even as a wave of new condo projects is announced, inventory will take time to catch up to demand with fewer deliveries scheduled in the immediate future, keeping levels low in this seller-friendly climate.

Metric

Overall Miami

GDM

Edgewater

Brickell

Downtown

Sales

Up

Up

Up

Up

Up

Sales Trendline

Positive

Positive

Positive

Positive

Positive

Price/Sq. Ft.

Up

Up

Up

Up

Down

Days on Market

Down

Down

Up

Down

Down

Inventory

Down

Down

Down

Down

Down


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Questions or comments about the stats? Interested in browsing the market? Contact Sep at sniakan (at) blackbookproperties.com or call 305-725-0566.



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Sep Niakan
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December 2021 Miami Events: Experience the Season’s Finest Events and Holiday Magic with Christmas and New Year Specials
Events December 2021 Miami Events: Experience the Season’s Finest Events and Holiday Magic with Christmas and New Year Specials
It’s starting to feel a lot like the holidays in Miami. There weather is bit crisper, the sky is that beautiful blue, Hanukkah came early, and there’s a ton of cheerful holiday events to indulge in, including Holiday Cheer Christmas trees, lighting displays, and holiday-themed wonderlands worth visiting this month. We even have you covered with a long list of New Year’s Eve fireworks viewing parties to ring in 2022 on the right note. Not to forget, Miami Art Week is back along with its hero – Art Basel, giving art lovers lots to discover, buy, talk about, celebrate, and photograph for an entire week. There’s also plenty of options for high-powered entertainment to more soulful evenings and holiday-themed fun as our lineup includes exciting picks from the FTX Arena, Adrienne Arsht Center, Deering Estate, Fairchild Tropical Gardens, and more this month. Read on for the full list of the Top Things to Do in Miami this December below: Things to Do in Miami - December Events at a...
Miami Condos You can Buy with Cryptocurrency
Buying Guide Miami Condos You can Buy with Cryptocurrency
Cryptocurrency holders are most welcome to buy real estate in Miami. This is the message that echoed across the globe for crypto holders this May, when a 9th-floor, ultra-luxury penthouse at Surfside’s Arte Residences closed using only cryptocurrency for a record price. The 5,067-square-foot, oceanfront residence sits in one of Miami’s most exclusive boutique buildings and features 360-degree water views. Closing at $22.5 million, the penthouse sale represents the most expensive residential crypto deal to date in the U.S. Considering the deal took only 10 days from start to end, it sets a new precedent in the world of real estate closings, demonstrating convenience and speed for both buyers and sellers. Now that cryptocurrency is becoming an increasingly popular investment vehicle and mode of currency, condo developers, sellers, and city officials are getting on board with the idea to allow cryptocurrency in real-world transactions - in Miami, at least. Miami Moves to Become...
E11even Residences Beyond: Sales Launched for Second E11even Hotel & Residences Tower in Downtown Miami
Preconstruction E11even Residences Beyond: Sales Launched for Second E11even Hotel & Residences Tower in Downtown Miami
It’s hotter. It’s more exclusive. It’s E11even Residences Beyond. Owing to a sales story that went from ‘soft launch’ to ‘sold out’ in a blaze, developers E11even Partners and the PMG Group are launching their second tower in Downtown Miami to complement one of Miami’s fastest-selling projects - E11even Hotel & Residences. Offering buyers a highly exclusive, “members-only” experience, ‘E11even Residences Beyond’ was launched the same day developers broke ground on ‘E11even Hotel & Residences’ this November. This second tower will be perched east of the first tower, on the same block, rising 65 stories with 461 ultra-luxury residences. Better still – the twin towers will be connected by a bridge, allowing ‘Beyond’ residents to walk over to enjoy amenities at the condo-hotel side, but not vice-versa. With 125 units already sold out (as of the time of this post), this new launch is garnering a great response. Future residents can expect to share amenities with ESPN co-host Sage...
Video: Bentley Residences - Tallest Residential Waterfront Tower in U.S.
Video Blog Video: Bentley Residences - Tallest Residential Waterfront Tower in U.S.
From the developer behind one of the first luxury automotive-branded condo towers, Porsche Design Tower, Gil Dezer and Dezer Development is bringing perhaps one of the finest luxury car brands to Miami to create breathtaking residences. The Bentley Residences will deliver Bentley Motors’ foray into residential real estate, with its first-ever condo building in Sunny Isles Beach. Rising 60 stories (or 749 feet), the cylindrical tower will become the tallest-ever built on a U.S. beachfront. With just 4 residences per floor and a host of first-of-their-kind amenities, future residents can expect to experience the same quality and opulence that the British manufacturer is known to deliver in their luxury cars.   Bentley Residences - Sunny Isles Beach, Florida Completion: Early 2026 Architect: Sieger Suarez Architects Interior Designer: In collaboration with Bentley Motors Developer: Dezer Development Floors: 60 Units: 200+, only 4 units per floor Unit Sizes: 3,500 to...
The Most Luxurious Condo Buildings in North Beach
Real Estate News The Most Luxurious Condo Buildings in North Beach
Luxury means different things to different people, but high-end living usually demands high-end prices. So, to gauge which are the most luxurious condo buildings in Miami Beach’s North Beach neighborhood, we’ve ranked the top 5 most expensive buildings of the neighborhood (based on average price per square foot at the time of publishing). This blog will give you a sneak peek into the kind of lifestyle you can expect in North Beach condo living. Last updated on Monday, November 24, 2021   Why Choose North Beach? Bandshell - North Beach, Miami FL. Photo courtesy of MiamiAndBeaches.com North Beach is best known for its family-friendly vibe and its location between the sensationalism of South Beach and high-end shopping at Bal Harbour. Historically, this has been the sleepy cousin to South Beach, but North Beach has been going through a renaissance of late with the addition of new condo construction and planning of the city center. Away from the chaos, this laidback part of town...
Need more Miami Art? Here are Miami’s Top 25 Art Museums
Art/Design Need more Miami Art? Here are Miami’s Top 25 Art Museums
South Florida has become an increasingly important and influential player in the international art world, thanks to the many high-end cultural offerings that this area has to offer, as well as the annual art fairs, including Art Miami and Art Basel Miami, that bring international visitors. Miami is also home to a wide variety of prestigious art museums, along with some of the world’s most iconic private art collectors, many of whom have opened cutting-edge exhibition spaces to showcase their private collections of contemporary art here in the city.   Revisit Old Masters, discover emerging contemporary artists, or learn about our rich Caribbean and Latin American talent. Explore the worlds of Art Deco design, decorative arts, and architecture, or immerse yourself in an interactive moving image installation. Stroll among garden sculptures, or take in a sprinkling of the illusionary, the erotic, or the supernatural. Whatever your taste in art, Miami offers plenty of opportunities to...