Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Report Q2 2020

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CondoBlackBook.com's overall Miami luxury condo market report for Q2 2020 unveiled the full impact the global health crisis had on sales, prices and other metrics as part of our quarterly analysis. As expected, sales slowed down and, as a result, inventory levels went up. The days condos spent on the market declined, however, that was more so due to sellers temporarily taking properties off the market and in part due to improved buyer-seller dialogue. Good news came in the form of sales prices holding their own – even posting gains - showing that sellers still got good value for their luxury condos, irrespective of a global slowdown.

Miami Beach was the only grouping in our first quarter study to report a (18.3%) drop in year-over-year sales. So, as the global health crisis unfolded during the second quarter, it was unclear how one of the most popular cities in the world would fare, however it seems that the beaches managed to hold their own. South Beach went from being the worst performing overall Miami neighborhood to one of three most stable in 2Q20 – besides Fisher Island and Edgewater – reporting minimal loss in momentum. Prices also showed resilience, showing gains in most sub-markets – a positive sign for owners of luxury condos in Miami Beach.

In this second-quarter report, find details on how each Miami Beach sub-neighborhood fared during the peak of the pandemic and its correlation to the overall market. Read on for the complete analysis:


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


For the purposes of this report, we've included the sub-neighborhoods of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North-Beach, Sunny Isles Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, and Fisher Island as part of our Miami Beach grouping. Also, this luxury condo submarket report only features properties priced at $1 million and above.


Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market 2Q20 Highlights:

  • Sales drop 50.7% year-over-year due to COVID-related global slowdown
  • 12-month Sales Trendline stays negative from 1Q20 to 2Q20
  • Price/Sq. Ft. up 10.7% year-over-year & 10% quarter-over-quarter
  • Median Sales Price down 3.5% year-over-year
  • Days on Market down 33.6% year-over-year
  • Inventory at highest since March 2019


Miami Beach Sub-neighborhood 2Q20 Highlights:

  • Fisher Island and South Beach weather pandemic-related slowdown best, reporting only a 25% and 26% dip in year-over-year Sales, respectively
  • Mid-North Beach most affected by global health crisis-related slowdown, reports biggest percentage (67.9%) drop in year-over-year Sales
  • 12-Month Trendline flat for South Beach only - all other sub-neighborhoods negative
  • Fisher Island is most expensive neighborhood in all of Miami, priced at $1,101/sq. ft., overtaking Surfside & Bal Harbour from Q1
  • Fisher Island also posts highest percentage increase (34.8%) in Price/Sq. ft. in Miami Beach
  • South Beach reports highest percentage decrease (15%) in Price/Sq. ft. in Miami Beach
  • Surfside & Bal Harbour posts highest Median Sales Price of $2.4 million in all of Miami, just behind the perpetually high-priced Fisher Island ($4.9 million)
  • Surfside & Bal Harbour posts highest percentage increase (13%) in Days on Market in Miami Beach
  • Fisher Island posts highest percentage decrease (37.7%) in Days on Market in Miami Beach
  • Surfside & Bal Harbour report lowest inventory (31 months) in Miami Beach and second-lowest in Miami overall, followed closely by South Beach (36 months)
  • Sunny Isles Beach posts highest inventory (90 months) in Miami Beach


Table of Contents

  1. Overall Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
  2. South Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
  3. Mid and North Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
  4. Surfside & Bal Harbour Luxury Condo Market Trends
  5. Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
  6. Fisher Island Luxury Condo Market Trends
  7. Conclusion


Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary 2Q20 - Fig. 1

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price

Quarters

Median Sp/Sqft

% Change in Sales

% Change in Median Sale Price

% Change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

72

$1,700,000

2020 Q2

$941.00

-50.7%

-3.5%

10.7%

99

146

$1,762,500

2019 Q2

$850.00

149


Miami Beach Luxury Condo Sales Down YoY

50.7% drop in year-over-year Sales with negative trendline. Miami Beach had a very soft opening to the year, with an 18.3% drop in year-over-year Sales reported in the first-quarter. However, with the COVID-19 situation unfolding globally and the city going into lockdown for the months of March and April, the second quarter, which is supposed to be the strongest of the year, was expected to report a further slowdown in momentum.

As anticipated, Miami Beach reported a 50.7% decline in year-over-year Sales, much in sync with the overall market trend this quarter. A look at the Monthly Sales chart in Fig. 2.2 shows that after peaking in March to 51, sales gradually slipped to 31 in April (against 58 last year) and further to 19 in May (against 53 last year). However, a second look reveals that numbers started rising by the tail-end of the quarter, as June closed with 22 sales (closer in number to previous year's 35 sales). This shows that pent up demand started trickling back in as the world adjusted to the "new normal" of doing business.

Consistent with the decline in sales, the 12-month trendline too remained negative between Q1 and Q2 this year (Fig. 2.3). However, as we've noticed a surge in sales going into July, it will be worth focusing on individual quarter growth to find signs of a recovery, since we do not anticipate 2020 recovering to 2019 numbers as yet.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Miami Beach Luxury Condo Price/Sq. Ft. Up, Sales Price Down

Price per Sq. ft. up 10.7% to $941, Median Price down 3.5% year-over-year. Partly in line with the general market trend, Miami Beach reported an increase in price/sq. ft. with a slight decline in Median Sales Price, as opposed to an increase in both metrics for Miami overall. This difference in trends could be due to the newer set of luxury condos being smaller in size but packing in more amenities, naturally making them fetch a higher price per sq. ft.

The Price per Sq. Ft. increases 10.7%, up from $850 in the same quarter of 2019 to $941 this year. On the other hand, the Median Sales Price slipped 3.5%, adjusting from $1,762,500 in the same quarter last year to $1,700,000 this year (fig. 1).

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per sq. ft. below (fig. 3) reveals that prices closed in the mid ranges for the period under review - 10% higher than the previous quarter, indicating good value for owners.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Days on Market Down YoY in Miami Beach

33.6% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. Consistent with the overall market trend, luxury condos in Miami Beach spent 50 fewer days on the market compared to the same quarter in 2019 (fig. 4). 

On a quarter-to-quarter basis as well, luxury condos spent 44 fewer days on market. This decline is a positive indicator, showing that buyers and sellers found it easier to reach a consensus in this combined beach district even as the pandemic ensued. However, it will be interesting to note how the metric reacts once the market returns to its pre-COVID momentum.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Miami Beach Inventory Up to Highest Since Mar. 2019, Favors Buyers 

Q2 closes with 55 months of inventory. Consistent with the overall market trend, Miami Beach's luxury condo inventory increased 57.1% year-over-year, reaching 55 months this June-end from previous year's 35 months. On a quarter-to-quarter basis too, inventory increased by 31%, up from March's closing of 42 months (fig. 5).

With levels moving further away from the 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market (expectedly), buyers have the added advantage of time and choices to fish out the best deals in this collective beach district. To see the kind of luxury condos available for sale in Miami Beach, click here.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Miami Beach Neighborhoods: South Beach (ZIP 33139)


South Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary 2Q20 - Fig. 6

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price

Quarters

Median Sp/Sqft

% Change in Sales

% Change in Median Sale Price

% Change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

28

$1,777,500

2020 Q2

$1,079.00

-26.3%

-8.3%

-15.0%

78

38

$1,937,500

2019 Q2

$1,270.00

132


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


South Beach: Sales Down YoY, But One of Most Stable in Miami

Q2 sales show stability with only 26% dip year-over-year and flat trendline. From posting the lowest Sales (-38.1%) of all Miami neighborhoods in the previous quarter, South Beach makes a comeback this second-quarter by posting a minimal loss in sales momentum. One of only three neighborhoods in our study reporting a minimal decline (26%) in year-over-year sales, South Beach is only behind Edgewater and Fisher Island in terms of stability.

This resilience is further substantiated by a flat 12-month trendline in fig. 7.2, which picks up from a negative angle in the previous quarter.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


South Beach: Luxury Condo Drop YoY to Second-Most Expensive in Miami

Price/sq. ft. drops 15% year-over-year to $1,079, median price down 8.3% year-over-year. In contrast to the overall market trend in Miami, both the Price per Sq. ft. and Median Sales Price dipped in South Beach (fig. 6). The Price per Sq. Ft. dipped 15%, the biggest percentage drop in price/sq. ft. in all of Miami, down from $1,270 in the same quarter of 2019 to $1,079 this year. The Median Sales Price also declined 8.3%, down from $1,937,500 in Q2 last year to $1,777,500 this year.

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices below (fig. 8) reveals that the price per sq. ft. trended in the mid ranges of the period under review, still up 17% compared to Q1.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


South Beach: Days on Market Drop YoY

40.9% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. Consistent with the overall market trend, South Beach's luxury condos spent 54 fewer days on the market (median) compared to the same quarter of 2019, and a good 130 fewer days compared to Q1 this year (fig. 9). This is a positive indication for the sub-neighborhood, showing that buyers and sellers had smoother interactions in this popular neighborhood.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


South Beach: Inventory Increases YoY, Stable QoQ

Q2 inventory closes at 36 months. In sync with the overall market trend in Miami, South Beach's luxury condo Inventory increased 33.3% year-over-year, up from 29 months in June last year (fig. 10). However, the good news is that inventory is only slightly higher than March's closing of 35 months.

Still, even after reporting a minimal loss in sales momentum, inventory will take a while to settle down to the 9-12-month benchmark of an ideal market. Until then, buyers can search South Beach condos for sale here to find the best deals in this desirable market.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Mid and North Beach (ZIP 33140 & 33141)


Mid-Beach and North-Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary 2Q2020 - Fig. 11

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price

Quarters

Median Sp/Sqft

% Change in Sales

% Change in Median Sale Price

% Change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

9

$1,275,000

2020 Q2

$863.00

-67.9%

1.2%

6.0%

118

28

$1,260,000

2019 Q2

$814.00

119


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Mid-North Beach: Luxury Condo Sales Slip to Lowest in Miami Beach

67.9% drop in year-over-year Sales with negative trendline. With the second-highest percentage drop in year-over-year sales of all the neighborhoods in our study, just behind Brickell, Mid-North Beach also reports the biggest drop in total quarterly sales in Miami Beach.

Bearing the maximum impact of a COVID-related loss in momentum of all the beaches, Mid-North Beach posts a 67.9% decline against the same quarter last year (fig. 11). The 12-month trendline goes from flat in the previous quarter to negative this quarter in response to the slowdown (fig. 12.2), showing that this quieter set of beach neighborhoods could take a while to recover.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Mid-North Beach: Prices Down - Biggest Drop in Miami Beach and Miami Overall

Price per sq. ft. up 6% at $863, Median Price flat year-over-year. Consistent with the overall market trend of increasing prices, Mid-North Beach reported a 6% in its Price per Sq. Ft., up from $814 in the same quarter of 2019 to $863 this year. The Median Sales Price was mostly flat (+1.2%), adjusting from $1,260,000 in the same quarter last year to $1,275,000 this year (fig. 11).

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per sq. ft. below (fig. 13) reveals that prices trended closer to the lower-end of the range for the period under review, only 3.1% higher than the first-quarter this year.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Mid-North Beach: Days on Market Flat YoY

Days on Market stay flat year-over-year. Deviating from the overall market trend in Miami, Mid-North Beach's luxury condos spent barely 1 fewer days on the market compared to the same quarter of 2019 and 10 less days compared to Q1 this year (fig. 14). This is a positive indication for the sub-neighborhood, showing that buyers and sellers mostly saw eye-to-eye on dealings.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Mid-North Beach: Inventory Up to Record-High

Q2 closes with 60 months of Inventory. Consistent with the overall market trend in Miami, Mid-North Beach's luxury condo Inventory increased 106.9% over June-closing last year (29 months) and 100% over March's closing of 30 months this year. Moving the furthest the neighborhood has been to reaching the 9-12-month benchmark of an ideal market, buyers have a great window of opportunity to drive negotiations in their favor. To find what kind of luxury condos are available in these coastal districts, search North Beach and Mid-Beach condos for sale here.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Surfside & Bal Harbour 


Surfside & Bal Harbour Luxury Condo Market Summary 2Q20 - Fig. 16

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price

Quarters

Median Sp/Sqft

% Change in Sales

% Change in Median Sale Price

% Change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

11

$2,441,000

2020 Q2

$879.00

-50.0%

22.8%

-1.4%

130

22

$1,987,500

2019 Q2

$891.00

115


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Surfside & Bal Harbour: Luxury Condo Sales Down

50% drop in year-over-year sales with negative trendline. Consistent with the overall market slowdown in Miami, this combined beach neighborhood reports a 50% decline in year-over-year sales (fig. 16). Further, the 12-month trendline in fig. 17.2 captures this pandemic-led loss in momentum as well, as it goes from flat in Q1 to negative in Q2.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Surfside & Bal Harbour: Sales Price Up to One of Most Expensive in Miami

Price/sq. ft. flat at $879, median price up 22.8% to one of highest in Miami. Partly deviating from the general 2Q20 Miami luxury condo market trend, this combined neighborhood posts a flat price/sq. ft. with increased median sales price compared to an increase in both metrics in the overall report.

The Price per Sq. Ft. dipped a marginal 1.4%, down from $879 in the same quarter last year to $891 this year (fig. 16). However, the Median Sales Price went up 22.8%, from $1,987,500 in the same quarter of 2019 to $2,441,000 this year – becoming the neighborhood with the second highest median sales price in Miami, right behind Fisher Island (which perpetually has the highest-priced luxury condos in all of Miami and the Miami Beaches).

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per sq. ft. below (fig. 18) reveals that prices closed in the lower ranges for the period under review, 35.1% lower than the previous quarter's record-high.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Surfside & Bal Harbour: Days on Market Up YoY

13% increase in year-over-year Days on Market. Going against the overall Miami condo market trend for 2Q20, this combined neighborhood posted a 13% increase in year-over-year numbers. Luxury condos spent 15 more days on the market compared to the same quarter last year (fig. 19).

On a quarter-to-quarter basis, however, Surfside & Bal Harbour's luxury condos spent 52 fewer days on the market, down from 182 in Q1 this year to 130 in Q2. It will be interesting to note how this metric reacts in the third quarter as the market settles into its pre-COVID momentum.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Surfside & Bal Harbour: Inventory Up YoY, But Lowest in Miami Beach

Q2 closes with 31 months of Inventory. Even though inventory increased (10.7%) year-over-year, much in line with the overall market trend in Miami, the combined Surfside and Bal Harbour neighborhood reports the lowest levels of inventory in Miami Beach and the second-lowest in all of Miami (just behind Coral Gables and Coconut Grove).

At 31 Months, inventory is up 10.7% from the previous year's June-closing of 28 months and 24% higher than March-end's 25 months (fig. 20). However, the grouping still continues holding onto its rank of 'neighborhood with second-lowest inventory in Miami' from the first-quarter, and is poised to be one of the first to reach the ideal benchmark of 9-12 months in Miami Beach. Until then, buyers interested in this niche beachside neighborhood should make the most of the opportunity, before prices get any higher, by searching for top deals in Surfside or Bal Harbour condos for sale here.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Sunny Isles Beach


Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary 2Q20 - Fig. 21

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price

Quarters

Median Sp/Sqft

% Change in Sales

% Change in Median Sale Price

% Change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

17

$1,350,000

2020 Q2

$606.00

-63.0%

-27.8%

-12.5%

99

46

$1,870,000

2019 Q2

$693.00

149


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Sunny Isles: Luxury Condo Sales Down YoY

63% drop in year-over-year Sales with negative trendline. Consistent with the overall market trend in Miami of lower sales, Sunny Isles Beach reports a 63% loss in momentum compared to the previous year (fig. 21). Absorbing the full impact of the global slowdown, the 12-month trendline also stays negative from 1Q20 to 2Q20 (fig. 22.2), showing that the neighborhood will take a while to recover.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Sunny Isles: Luxury Condo Price/Sq. ft. Down to Lowest in Miami

Price/sq. ft. down 12.5% to lowest in Miami at $606, Median Price down 27.8% year-over-year. Going against the overall market trend of increasing prices, Sunny Isles Beach posts the second-highest percentage drop in Price/sq. ft. in our study, bringing prices to the lowest of all Miami neighborhoods (replacing Coral Gables and Coconut Grove from Q1).

The Price per Sq. Ft. decreased 12.5%, down from $693 in the same quarter of 2019 to $606 this year. Following suit, the Median Sales Price also dropped 27.8%, down from $1,870,000 the same quarter last year to $1,350,000 this Q2 (fig. 21).

A closer look into quarterly price patterns mapped in fig. 23 reveals that Sunny Isles closed Q2 with the lowest price per sq. ft. for the entire period under review, also down 20.3% from Q1.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Sunny Isles: Days on Market Down YoY

27.3% drop in year-over-year Days on Market. Consistent with the overall market trend in Miami, luxury condos in Sunny Isles Beach spent 44 fewer days on market compared to the same quarter of 2019 and 4 fewer days compared to Q1 this year (fig. 24). This shows positive interaction between buyers and sellers in the sub-neighborhood.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Sunny Isles: Inventory Up to Highest in Miami Beach, Buyers' Gain

Q2 closes with 90 months of Inventory. In sync with the overall market trend in Miami, Sunny Isles' luxury condo Inventory increased 80% over June-closing last year (50 months) and 28.6% over March's closing of 70 months this year (fig. 25). With the heaviest inventory in all of Miami Beach, the neighborhood has moved further away from the 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market. This, combined with lower prices per square foot, gives buyers a larger window of opportunity to find the best deals and drive negotiations in their favor, as they search Sunny Isles Beach condos for sale here.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Fisher Island


Fisher Island Luxury Condo Market Summary 1Q20 - Fig. 26

Number of Sales

Median Sale Price

Quarters

Median Sp/Sqft

% Change in Sales

% Change in Median Sale Price

% Change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

7

$4,850,000

2020 Q2

$1,314.00

-36.4%

148.7%

34.8%

94

11

$1,950,000

2019 Q2

$975.00

151


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Fisher Island: Sales Down YoY, But Most Stable in Miami

Q2 Sales showcase stability with only 25% slip in year-over-year sales and negative trendline. As the only sub-neighborhood in Miami Beach to report positive sales figures in 1Q20, Fisher Island continued its resilience into the second-quarter, posting the least impact of pandemic-related buyer hesitation on sales. 

With only a 25% drop in year-over-year sales, Fisher Island is one of only three Miami neighborhoods in our study reporting minimal sales loss in Q2 (the other two being Edgewater and South Beach). However, the 12-month trendline stays negative from 1Q20 to 2Q20, simply for not being able to match the momentum of higher than average sales registered in Q3 2019 (fig. 27.1).


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.

Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Fisher Island: Luxury Condo Prices Up YoY to Most Expensive in Miami

Fisher Island price/sq. ft. up 34.8% at $1,101, median sales price up 148.7% year-over-year. Fisher Island regains its No. 1 spot in terms of Price/sq. ft. and Median Sales Price this quarter, following the overall Miami luxury condo market trend of increase in prices. Replacing the first quarter's most expensive district of Surfside & Bal Harbour, the coveted island neighborhood reports a 34.8% increase in year-over-year prices to close at $1,101/sq. ft. in Q2.

Also maintaining its first-quarter top position, the water-bound neighborhood reports the highest percentage growth (148.7%) in Median Sales Price of all Miami neighborhoods in Q2, closing at a median of $4.9 million. This is mainly due to the sale of properties priced $2.5 million and upwards only this second-quarter.

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices below (fig. 28), further reveals that the price per sq. ft. trended in the mid-ranges of the period under review, just 16.3% higher than Q1.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Fisher Island: Days on Market Down YoY 

37.7% drop in year-over-year Days on Market. In line with the overall Miami condo market trend, Fisher Island's luxury condos spent 57 fewer days on the market compared to the same quarter of 2019. However, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, luxury condos spent 22 more days compared to Q1 this year (fig. 6). It will be interesting to note how the metric reacts once momentum is back to pre-COVID levels.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


Fisher Island: Buyers Gain Advantage with Higher Quarter-end Inventory

Q2 closes with 61 months of Inventory. In line with the overall market trend in Miami, Fisher Island's luxury condo Inventory jumped 69.4% over June-closing last year (36 months) and 27% over March's closing of 72 months this year. Even as the neighborhood posted the lowest loss in momentum of all Miami neighborhoods, inventory has moved further away from the 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market. This puts the advantage of time and choice in buyers' hands as the metric will take a while to settle to its ideal numbers. To make the most of this opportunity, begin with a search of available Fisher Island condos for sale here.


Disclaimer: Data sourced from MLS 9 April 2020. Precaution has been taken to ensure that the content and analysis is accurate and current, however figures may be subject to revision.


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Conclusion

With the world slowing down due to the ongoing coronavirus health crisis, it was quite expected to see a slowdown in overall sales for Miami and Miami Beach. And, the second-quarter numbers do show the full impact of this wild card of a situation. Sales in Miami Beach declined across the board, much like the rest of Miami (as seen in our overall report), with only South Beach and Fisher Island showing minimal loss of momentum. This in turn brought the 12-month Sales Trendline to a negative in all the Miami Beach neighborhoods, except South Beach (which was flat). This makes South Beach stand out as a strong favorite among buyers – most likely to be one of the first Miami Beach neighborhoods to report a robust sales cycle.

On the price front, the majority of Miami Beach neighborhoods reported an increase in year-over-year Price/Sq. Ft., in line with the trends seen in the overall report. This showed that sellers continued getting good value for their properties, irrespective of the pandemic. The only exceptions to this were the sub-markets of South Beach and Sunny Isles Beach, of which Sunny Isles turned out to be the lowest priced of all Miami neighborhoods part of our study. At $606/sq. ft., Sunny Isles offers the most affordable entry into the Miami Beach luxury condo market for investors or buyers in South Florida. 

Other good news was that the Days on Market metric was down across the board, much like the overall market, with only Surfside & Bal Harbour reporting an increase. In terms of months of Inventory, the metric was naturally higher for all Miami Beach neighborhoods, keeping the market buyer friendly again. Sunny Isles Beach continued carrying the heaviest inventory for the second quarter in a row, which, coupled with its price drop, makes it an even more lucrative avenue for investments.

With the market having faced the full impact of the pandemic-induced slowdown, it's expected that this wild card will continue disrupting travel plans, perhaps affecting numbers in the upcoming quarters. Another wild card to watch for this year is the Presidential election, which has historically led to buyer hesitation. Nonetheless, going into the third quarter, we can safely report that there is a sudden surge in sales due to pent up demand coming through. Also, Miami Beach still ranks high on the buyer's lists for its zero income tax, great year-round weather and proactive leadership.

However, considering the market has entered into an extended buyer-friendly cycle, investors and those looking to live in Miami Beach will find it easier to find the right luxury condo at a price convenient to them and likely below recent historical markets.

Metrics

Overall Miami

Miami Beach

South Beach

Mid-North Beach 

Surfside & Bal Harbour

Sunny Isles Beach

Fisher Island

Sales

Down

Down

Down

Down

Down

Down

Down

Trendline

Down

Down

Flat

Down

Down

Down

Down

Price per Sq. Ft

Up

Up

Down

Up

Flat

Down

Up

Days on Market

Down

Down

Down

Flat

Up

Down

Down

Inventory

Up

Up

Up

Up

Up

Up

Up


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Questions or comments with the stats? Interested in buying a Miami Beach condo in one of these neighborhoods? Please contact Sep at sniakan (at) hbroswell.com or call 305-725-0566.


Cover photo credit: Antonio Cuellar
Contact Sep Niakan
Founder, Condoblackbook.com & Owner/Broker, HB Roswell Realty
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