The fourth quarter of 2020 for Miami's overall luxury condo market was the  busiest quarter since 2015.  As we do every quarter, CondoBlackbook analyzes the data for the luxury condo market  for Miami Overall and key Miami cities. In this report, we discuss the Annual plus Q4 2020 Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market data. With Miami Beach, Sunny Isles Beach, and Fisher Island reporting record-high quarterly sales like the rest of Miami, Q4 for the Miami beaches closed on an exceptionally positive note. Considering the slowdown caused by the global health crisis, most of the Miami Beach areas made a strong recovery, giving us reason to expect a better than usual Q1 2021.

Also, with inventory being down across the board (except South Beach) and the second quarter of the year being the most active time for the luxury condo market in Miami, we are further expecting Q2 2021 to ring in some great results as well.

There are plenty of other highlights to discover as you read on our exclusive analysis detailing how each Miami Beach sub-neighborhood fared in Q4 2020, as well as on an annual basis, with comparisons to the overall Miami luxury condo trends in terms of sales, prices, days on market and inventory.

For the purposes of this report, we've included the sub-neighborhoods of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North-Beach, Sunny Isles Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, and Fisher Island as part of our Miami Beach grouping. This luxury condo submarket report only features properties priced at $1 million and above.

2020 Annual Miami Beach + Sub-neighborhood Luxury Condo Market Highlights 

• Annual Sales down 3.7% against 2019, but highest total sales since 2016-2018
• Annual Price per Square Foot flat at $852 in 2020-over-2019 analysis
• Annual Days on Market decline 16.2% in 2020-over-2019 analysis
• Winners: Fisher Island (19.4%) and Sunny Isles Beach (18%) top popularity charts, lead annual sales growth in Miami Beach
• Winner: Surfside and Bal Harbour (combined) leads price growth in Miami overall with highest percentage increase in Price per Square Foot – offering maximum value to sellers
• Winner: Fisher Island is the most expensive neighborhood of 2020 with a median price of $1,054/sq. ft., closely followed by South Beach at $1,026/sq. Ft.
• 2020 closed as buyer's market, but trends indicate a correction to a balanced position in 2021

Q4 2020 - Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Highlights  

• Sales up 40.6% year-over-year, set new record in over 6 years
• 12-month sales trendline up from flat in Q3 to positive in Q4 2020
• At $806, Price per Square Foot down to lowest in over 5 years
• Days on Market down 23.4% year-over-year
• Inventory down to all-time low of 32 months

Q4 2020 - Miami Beach Sub-neighborhood Highlights 

• Winners: Fisher Island (142.9%) and Sunny Isles Beach (140.7%) top popularity charts again, lead quarterly sales growth in Miami overall
• 12-month sales trendline positive across the board
• Mid-North Beach is the only neighborhood to report a decline in year-over-year sales
• Winner: Fisher Island posts highest percentage growth in year-over-year price per sq. ft. (8.2%) in Miami Beach
• Winner: Fisher Island is the most expensive neighborhood of Q4 2020 with a median price of $1,128/sq. ft.
• Surfside and Bal Harbour (combined) posts biggest percentage decrease (59.8%) in Days on Market in Miami Beach
• Fisher Island reports the lowest year-end inventory (15 months) of all Miami neighborhoods
• South Beach posts highest inventory (39 months) in Miami Beach

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2020 YoY (Median Sale Price)

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2020 YoY (Median Sales Price / SqFt)

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2020 YoY (Number of sales)

Table of Contents

1. Overall Q4 2020 Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
2. Q4 2020 South Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
3. Q4 2020 Mid and North Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
4. Q4 2020 Surfside & Bal Harbour Luxury Condo Market Trends
5. Q4 2020 Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
6. Q4 2020 Fisher Island Luxury Condo Market Trends
7. Conclusion - Q4 2020 Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Report

4Q 2020 Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1

2020-over-2019 Miami Beach Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 1.1

Miami Beach Market Trends: Luxury Condo Sales Down Annually, Q4 2020 Sets New Record

Annual Sales down 3.7% compared to 2019, but highest since 2016 with positive trendline

Even with the pandemic plummeting sales mid-year (Q2 market report), the last two quarters of 2020 posted an extraordinary recovery to bring annual numbers back to historic values - much like the overall Miami market.

With yearly sales just 3.7% short those of 2019 (Fig. 1.1), Miami Beach still reported higher total sales in a year compared to 2016, 2017 and 2018 (Fig. 2.1). This shows that the market not only cashed in on pent-up demand from Q2, but also had new buyer interest give the last quarter an exceptional boost.

Fisher Island and Sunny Isles Beach were the biggest contributors to the bounce seen in annual numbers here. While Fisher Island reported a 19.4% year-over-year increase against 2019 (Fig. 21.1), Sunny Isles Beach posted an 18% increase (Fig. 26.1). With an unprecedented close to an unprecedented year, the 12-month sales trendline went from being flat-ish in Q3 2020 to a soaring positive in Q4 (Fig. 2.3), pointing to chances of a strong Q1 2021.

Q4 2020 posts record-breaking sales with 40.6% uptick year-over-year

As predicted in our Q3 report, Miami Beach closed 2020 on an exceptionally strong note. Contributing aggressively to the higher year-over-year sales trend of the overall market, Miami Beach reported a record-breaking 180 sales in Q4. These are the highest sales seen in a quarter since 2015 (see Fig. 2.1).

Further, reporting a 40.6% increase against Q4 last year, sales were also 2.5 times stronger than those in Q2 (the lowest point in over six years owing to the pandemic). What's also worth noting here is that the month of December not only contributed heavily to this quarterly boost, but also posted the highest sales in a month since 2015 (Fig. 2.2).

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 2.1

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 2.2

Miami Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Miami Beach: Luxury Condo Sales Prices - Flat Annually + Down for Q4 2020

Annual Price Per Square Foot flat at $852, Median Sales Price down 5.4% against 2019

Partly deviating from the overall market trend of flat year-over-year prices, only the Sales Price in Miami Beach reports a decline in numbers (Fig. 1.1). The Median Sales Price dropped 5.4%, down from $1,850,000 in 2019 to $1,750,000 in 2020. The Price per Square Foot, however, stayed put at $852 in the 2020-over-2019 analysis.

Q4 2020 Price per Square Foot down 5.5% to $806, Median Sales Price down 6.6% year-over-year

Consistent with the overall market trend of lower year-over-year prices, both the Price per Square Foot and Sales Prices reported a decline in Miami Beach (Fig. 1). The Price per Square Foot declined 5.5%, down from $853 in Q4 2019 to $806 same quarter 2020. The Median Sales Price too dipped 6.6%, down from $1,742,500 in Q4 of the previous year to $1,627,500 in Q4 2020.

What's worth noting is that Q4 2020 closed with the lowest Price per Square Foot since 2016 - showing that buyers enjoyed deep discounts by year-end in Miami Beach (Fig. 3).

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 3

Miami Beach: Annual Days on Market Down YoY

Annual Days on Market decrease by 16.2%

In line with the overall Miami market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos spent 25 fewer days for sale compared to 2019 (Fig. 1.1). This indicates an improvement in buyer-seller dialogue over the course of the year and strong demand.

Q4 2020 Days on Market down 23.4% year-over-year

Consistent with the overall market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos in Miami Beach spent 36 fewer days compared to Q4 2019. On a quarter-over-quarter basis too, luxury condos spent 55 fewer days on market compared to Q3 2020 (Fig. 4) - showing that buyers and sellers found it easier to come to a consensus by year-end.

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 4

Miami Beach: Inventory Down QoQ + YoY

Q4 2020 closes with all-time low of 32 months of Inventory

As sales picked up towards the tail-end of the year, inventory levels settled down to an all-time low of 32 months in Miami Beach. This figure is also significantly lower than the pandemic-caused peak seen in June (55 months).

At 32 months, luxury condo inventory dropped 36% quarter-over-quarter (50 to 32 months) and 25.6% year-over-year (43 to 32 months), much in line with the overall Miami trend. This gives buyers a limited window of opportunity to drive negotiations before levels drop down to the 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market, making buyers lose their edge. To look at what luxury condos are available for sale in Miami Beach, click here.

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – number of active listings + number of pending listings, divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Miami Beach Neighborhoods: 4Q 2020 South Beach (ZIP 33139)

Q4 2020 South Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 6

2020-over-2019 South Beach Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 6.1

South Beach: Annual Sales Down, Up YoY for Q4 2020

Annual Sales down, but trendline shifts to positive

Consistent with the overall Miami market trend of lower annual sales, South Beach reported a decline of 21.5% in total sales compared to 2019 (Fig. 6.1). With the first three quarters of 2020 posting lower-than-average numbers due to the pandemic, it was quite expected that the neighborhood would take a while to recover completely.

However, what's worth noting is that the 12-month sales trendline corrects from a negative in Q3 to a positive in Q4 2020 – pointing to chances of a good start to 2021 in South Beach (Fig. 7.2).

Q4 2020 sales up 8.6% year-over-year + highest sales in a Q4 since 2015

Posting a 72% increase from its record-low sales in the previous quarter, Q4 turns around to become the best-performing quarter of 2020 in South Beach (Fig. 7.1). With the highest number of sales in a fourth-quarter in over 6 years as well as an 8.6% increase in year-over-year volume, this popular beach destination closed 2020 on a positive note.

South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 7.1

South Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 7.2

South Beach: Luxury Condo Prices Down – Annually + Q4 2020

Annual Price per Square Foot down to $1,026, Median Price also down 9.3% year-over-year

In contrast to the overall Miami market trend of flat annual prices, both the Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price reported a decline in South Beach (Fig. 6.1). The Price per Square Foot dropped 10.9%, down from $1,151 in 2019 to $1,026 in 2020. The Median Price also declined 9.3%, down from $1,875,000 in 2019 to $1,700,000 in 2020.

Q4 2020 Price per Sq. Ft. down 17.9% to $942, Median Price down 13.7% year-over-year

Consistent with the overall Miami market trend of lower year-over-year prices, both the Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price dropped in South Beach (Fig. 6). Year-over-year, the Price per Square Foot dipped 17.9%, down from $1,147 in Q4 2019 to $942 same quarter 2020. This points to a great opportunity for buyers, as the Price per Square Foot closed at below $1,000 in this sought-after beach neighborhood (Fig. 8).

The Median Sales Price too declined 13.7% to $1,575,000 in Q4 this year from $1,825,000 in Q4 2019.

South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Square Foot 2016-2020 - Fig. 8

South Beach: Annual Days on Market Down YoY

Annual Days on Market decline 28.5%

Consistent with the overall Miami market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos in South Beach spent 39 fewer days on the market compared to 2019 (Fig. 6.1). This shows how buyers and sellers found it easier to come to a consensus compared to the previous year.

Q4 2020 Days on Market drop 48.9% year-over-year

Moving with the overall market trend of lower Days on Market for Q4, luxury condos in South Beach spent 67 fewer days compared to the same quarter 2019. This same trend could be seen on a quarter-over-quarter basis as well, where luxury condos spent 97 fewer days on market compared to Q3 2020 (Fig. 9).

South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 - Fig. 9

South Beach: Inventory Down QoQ, but Up YoY Favoring Buyers

Q4 2020 closes with 39 months of Inventory, highest in Miami Beach

With Q1 to Q3 losing sales momentum mostly due to the pandemic, South Beach posted the highest levels of inventory in Miami Beach. At 39 months, although luxury condo inventory dropped 11.4% quarter-over-quarter (44 to 39 months), it was 8.3% higher year-over-year (36 to 39 months). This is partly in line with the overall Miami market trend of significantly lower inventory in Q4 (see Fig. 10 below).

While prices are down and inventory is still a long way from reaching the 9-12-month mark of a balanced market, buyers should note that the trends are showing an aggressive correction fueled by demand. Interested buyers should take advantage of these data and markdowns in this popular beach destination. To look at the kind of luxury inventory available in South Beach condos, click here.

South Beach Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 10

Miami Beach Neighborhoods: 4Q 2020 Mid and North Beach (ZIP 33140 & 33141)

Q4 2020 Mid-Beach and North-Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 11

2020-over-2019 Mid-Beach and North-Beach Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 11.1

Mid-North Beach: Luxury Condo Sales Down – Annually + Q4 2020

Annual Sales down 17.6%, but trendline soars positive

Looking at the bigger picture in this combined neighborhood, the luxury condo market had a rollercoaster ride throughout the year. From posting the biggest drop in Q2 sales in Miami Beach to leading sales growth in Q3, and then again becoming the only neighborhood to post a decline in year-over-year sales in the beaches for Q4, the luxury condo market in Mid-North Beach has been erratic throughout 2020.

Closing 2020 with a total of 32 sales, Mid-North Beach posted a 17.6% decline in aggregate sales compared to 2019 (Fig. 11.1). However, the 12-month trendline finally improves from its negative curve in Q2 and Q3 to a positive in Q4, owing to an increase in momentum by the end of the year (Fig. 12.2).

Q4 2020 sales down 11.1% year-over-year, but outperform fourth-quarter results 2015-2018

With an 11.1% decline in year-over-year sales, Mid-North Beach posts the lowest sales volume in Miami Beach this Q4. However, a closer look at Fig. 12.1 reveals that the combined neighborhood does show progress, as Q4 2020 reports higher sales compared to the same quarter 2015-2018. A good November (12 sales) and December (14 sales) also make this last quarter the best out of the year.

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 12.1

Mid-Beach and North-Beach 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2

Mid-North Beach: Luxury Condo Price Per Square Foot Flat YoY - Both Annually + Q4 2020

Annual Price per Square Foot flat at $845, Median Price down 6.2% year-over-year

Partly in line with the overall Miami market trend of flat annual prices, only the Median Sales Price reported a decline in Mid-North Beach (Fig. 11.1). The Price per Square Foot was mostly flat, shifting only slightly from $855 in 2019 to $845 in 2020. On the other hand, the Median Price declined 6.2%, down from $1,439,000 in 2019 to $1,350,000 in 2020.

Q4 2020 Price per Sq. Ft. flat at $861, Median Price up 12.3% year-over-year

Sharply in contrast to the overall Miami market trend of lower year-over-year prices, the Price per Square Foot stayed flat and Median Sales Price increased (Fig. 11). The Price per Square Foot shifted only marginally from $864 in Q4 2019 to $861 the same quarter 2020. However, the Median Sales Price happened to increase 12.3% to $1,637,500 in Q4 this year from $1,458,000 in Q4 2019.

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 13

Mid-North Beach: Annual Days on Market Flat YoY

Annual Days on Market flat

Deviating from the overall Miami market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos in Mid-North Beach spent almost the same number of days on the market compared to 2019, reporting a variation of only 3 days (Fig. 11.1). This indicates that buyer-seller interaction stayed the same over the course of the year.

Q4 2020 Days on Market down 21.8% year-over-year

Consistent with the overall Miami trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos spent 22 fewer days on the market compared to Q4 a year-ago. The trend only intensifies in a quarter-over-quarter analysis, reducing the days on market to half (79) of those in Q3 (158). (See Fig. 14 below)

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 14

Mid-North Beach: Inventory Down QoQ + YoY

Q4 2020 closes with 27 months of Inventory

Dropping to below half the peak seen in June 2020 (60 months), inventory makes great progress over the last 6 months in Mid-North Beach. At 27 months, inventory declined 42.5% quarter-over-quarter (47 to 27 months), and 32.5% year-over-year (40 to 27 months). This is in sync with the overall Miami market trend of lower year-over-year inventory seen in Q4.

With inventory inching towards the ideal 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market, buyers have a shrinking window of opportunity to get the best deals out of this quieter part of Miami Beach. To find what sort of luxury condos are available, search North Beach and Mid-Beach condos for sale here.

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 15

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Miami Beach Neighborhoods: 4Q 2020 Surfside & Bal Harbour 

Q4 2020 Surfside & Bal Harbour Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 16

2020-over-2019 Surfside & Bal Harbour Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 16.1

Surfside & Bal Harbour: Annual Sales Flat + Up YoY for Q4 2020

Annual Sales volume matches 2019 with positive trendline

In contrast to the overall Miami market trend of lower annual sales, this combined grouping matches the total sales from 2019 (Fig. 16.1). Considering the mid-year hiatus caused by the pandemic, this is remarkable progress for the neighborhood. Posting a full recovery, the 12-month sales trendline corrects from a negative curve in Q2 and Q3 to a positive in Q4 (Fig. 17.2).

Q4 2020 sales up 35% year-over-year + peak to highest in 2015-2019

Q4 Sales trended 35% higher year-over-year in Surfside and Bal Harbour to report many achievements. Momentum was at an all-time high with sales matching the peak from Q2 2018. Volume doubled from Q3. And, this was the best fourth-quarter seen in over 6 years (Fig. 17.1). All of these trends combined lead us to expect a strong Q1 2021 for this combined neighborhood.

Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 17.1

Surfside & Bal Harbour 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 17.2

Surfside & Bal Harbour: Leads Annual Price Per Square Foot Growth in Miami Overall

Annual Price per Square Foot up at $842, Median Price up 7.3% year-over-year

Offering maximum value to sellers in Miami, the combined neighborhood of Surfside and Bal Harbour led annual Price per Square Foot growth for luxury condos in our overall market study. With an year-over-year increase of 14.8%, the Price per Square Foot went up from $734 in 2019 to $842 in 2020. The Median Price too increased 7.3% from $2,275,000 in 2019 to $2,441,000 in 2020. This went against the overall Miami trend of flat annual prices.

Q4 2020 Price per Sq. Ft. down to $651, Median Price down 27.5% year-over-year

In sync with the overall Miami market trend of lower year-over-year prices, both the Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price decreased in Surfside and Bal Harbour (Fig. 16). The Price per Square Foot declined 11.3%, down from $734 in Q4 the previous year to $651 Q4 2020. The Median Sales Price too dropped 27.5% from $2,275,000 in Q4 2019 to $1,650,000 in the same quarter 2020.

What's worth noting is that Q4 2020 closed with the lowest Price per Square Foot seen in the past 5 years – showing deep discounts for buyers in this upscale Surfside and Bal Harbour grouping.

Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 18

Surfside & Bal Harbour: Annual Days on Market Down YoY

Annual Days on Market drop 29%

In sync with the overall Miami market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos in Surfside and Bal Harbour spent 53 fewer days on the market compared to 2019 (Fig. 16.1). This shows that buyers and sellers were much quicker to come to a consensus than a year ago.

Q4 2020 Days on Market down 59.8% year-over-year

Consistent with the overall market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos spent 152 fewer days compared to Q4 2019, marking great progress. On a quarter-over-quarter basis as well, luxury condos spent 21 fewer days compared to Q3 2020 (Fig. 19).

Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 19

Surfside & Bal Harbour: Luxury Condo Inventory Down QoQ + YoY

Q4 2020 closes with 28 months of Inventory

With sales picking up significant pace over the last quarter of 2020, the months of inventory report good progress, declining in sync with the overall Miami market. At 28 months, inventory declined 34.9% quarter-over-quarter (from 43 to 28 months), and 15% year-over-year (from 33 to 27 months).

As inventory gets closer to reaching the ideal 9-12-month mark of a balanced market, buyers have a limited period to cherry-pick the best deals. Those interested in the area should make the most of this limited-time opportunity by searching for top deals in Surfside or Bal Harbour condos for sale here.

Surfside & Bal Harbour Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 20

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Miami Beach Neighborhoods: 4Q 2020 Sunny Isles Beach

Q4 2020 Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 21

2020-over-2019 Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 21.1

Sunny Isles: Annual Sales Up YoY + Record-High Volume in Q4 2020

Annual Sales up 18% against 2019 with soaring positive trendline

Bucking the overall Miami market trend of lower annual sales, Sunny Isles Beach reports an 18% uptick in annual numbers compared to 2019 (Fig. 21.1). The last two quarters of 2020 not only made up for lost momentum mid-year (due to the pandemic), but also posted record sales to make Sunny Isles Beach one of only two neighborhoods in Miami Beach to report annual sales growth (behind Fisher Island).

This also keeps the 12-month trendline positive from Q3 to Q4 2020 (Fig. 22.2).

Q4 2020 sales record-high, up 140.7% year-over-year

With the highest quarterly sales in over 6 years, Sunny Isles Beach progresses from being the only neighborhood in Q3 2020 to report positive sales in Miami Beach to leading its sales growth in Q4 (just behind Fisher Island). This, coupled with a positive 12-month sales trendline, points to the likelihood of the neighborhood opening 2021 on a very strong note.

Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 22.1

Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 22.2

Sunny Isles: Annual and Q4 2020 Luxury Condo Prices Report Mixed Trends

Annual Price per Square Foot up to $707, Median Price down 7.2% year-over-year

Sharply in contrast to the overall Miami market trend of flat annual prices, the Price per Square Foot reports an increase whereas the Median Sales Price posts a decline in 2020 (Fig. 21.1). The Price per Square Foot went up 3.3%, from $685 in 2019 to $707 in 2020. On the other hand, the Median Price declined 7.2% from $1,691,000 in 2019 to $1,570,000 in 2020. This difference in trends could be due to the increased sale of newer condos that pack in more amenities per square foot, and so end up commanding higher prices.

Q4 2020 Price per Sq. Ft. down 2.8% to $666, Median Price down 6.7% year-over-year

Consistent with the overall Miami market trend of lower year-over-year prices, both the Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price decreased in Sunny Isles Beach (Fig. 21). The Price per Square Foot dropped 2.8% from $685 in Q4 of the previous year to $666 the same quarter 2020. The Median Sales Price too dipped 6.7%, down from $1,500,000 in Q4 2019 to $1,400,000 in Q4 this year.

Sunny Isles Beach Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 23

Sunny Isles: Annual Days on Market Flat

Annual Days on Market flat

Deviating from the overall Miami market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos in Sunny Isles spent almost the same number of days on the market as in 2019 (Fig. 21). This indicates that buyers and sellers were more or less on the same page regarding dealings as a year ago.

Q4 2020 Days on Market up 7% year-over-year

Moving against the overall market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos spent 11 extra days on the market compared to Q4 2019. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, luxury condos spent 22 fewer days compared to Q3 2020 (Fig. 24).

Sunny Isles Beach Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 24

Sunny Isles: Luxury Condo Inventory Down QoQ + YoY

Q4 2020 closes with 37 months of Inventory

With sales up to a record-high by year-end, it was exciting to see inventory nosedive in Sunny Isles Beach. At 37 months, inventory dropped 45.6% quarter-over-quarter (from 68 to 37 months), and 43% year-over-year (from 65 to 37 months). The metric was also down 2.5 times its peak of 90 months in June 2020 (Fig. 25).

Since inventory is some way off from reaching the ideal 9-12-month mark of a balanced market, buyers have some time in this luxury condo segment to hunt for the best deals possible, however, the trend is showing a very strong correction with drops for the last six months in a row. To look at all the options available in Sunny Isles Beach condos for sale, click here.

Sunny Isles Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 25

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Miami Beach Neighborhoods: 4Q 2020 Fisher Island

Q4 2020 Fisher Island Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 26

2020-over-2019 Fisher Island Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 26.1

Fisher Island: Leads Sales Growth in Miami Beach - Annually + Q4 2020

Annual Sales up 19.4% against 2019 with soaring positive trendline

Bucking the overall Miami market trend of lower annual sales, Fisher Island reports a 19.4% increase in annual numbers compared to 2019 (Fig. 26.1). The extraordinary number of sales in the last two quarters of 2020 help make Fisher Island one of only two neighborhoods in Miami Beach to report annual sales growth (besides Sunny Isles Beach).

This sends the 12-month sales trendline soaring in Fig. 27.2, keeping it positive from Q3 to Q4 2020.

Q4 2020 up 142.9% year-over-year, leads sales growth in Miami Overall

With the highest quarterly sales since Q2 2016, Fisher Island became the highest performing Miami neighborhood of Q4 2020, leading sales growth in Miami Beach and our overall Miami market study. This is also the highest that sales have been in a fourth-quarter since 2015, pointing to a remarkable recovery from the pandemic-caused slowdown mid-year for the luxury condo segment in Fisher Island (Fig. 27.1).

Fisher Island Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 27.1

Fisher Island Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 27.2

Fisher Island: Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot Highest in Miami Overall - Annually + Q4 2020

Annual Price per Square Foot flat at $1,054, Median Price up 9% year-over-year

Partly in line with the overall Miami market trend of flat annual prices, only the Median Price deviated posting an increase for 2020 (Fig. 26.1). The Price per Square Foot moved only slightly from $1,056 in 2019 to $1,054 in 2020. On the other hand, the Median Price went up 9% from $4,175,000 in 2019 to $4,550,000 in 2020. This difference in trends could be due to the increased sale of larger units, where the price per square foot tends to spread thinly over the size of the condo.

Q4 2020 Price per Sq. Ft. up 8.2% to $1,128, Median Price up 22.3% year-over-year

Bucking the overall Miami market trend of lower year-over-year prices, both the Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price registered an uptick in Fisher Island (Fig. 26). The Price per Square Foot went from $1,043 in Q4 2019 to $1,128 in the same quarter 2020 – an increase of 8.2%. The Median Sales Price too went up from $4,150,000 in Q4 2019 to $5,075,000 in Q4 2020 – an increase of 22.3%.

Fisher Island Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 28

Fisher Island: Annual Days on Market Down YoY 

Annual Days on Market down 28.5%

In sync with the overall Miami market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos in Fisher Island spent 43 fewer days on the market compared to 2019 (Fig. 26.1). This indicates an improvement in buyer-seller communications over the course of the year, showing that they were on the same page regarding dealings.

Q4 2020 Days on Market down 47% year-over-year

In line with the overall market trend of lower Days on Market for Q4 2020, luxury condos spent 83 fewer days on the market compared to the same quarter 2019. Even on a quarter-over-quarter basis, luxury condos spent 115 fewer days compared to Q3 2020 (Fig. 29).

Fisher Island Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 29

Fisher Island: Inventory Down to Lowest in Miami Overall

Q4 2020 closes with 15 months of Inventory

Dropping to one-fourth the peak seen in June 2020 (61 months), luxury condo inventory makes great strides over the last 6 months in Fisher Island. At 15 months, inventory levels declined 40% quarter-over-quarter (from 25 to 15 months), and 48% year-over-year (from 29 to 15 months). This is consistent with the overall Miami market trend of lower year-over-year inventory seen in Q4.

With inventory closest to reaching the ideal 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market, buyers should take note that they have a limited time to make the most of these favorable conditions before it flips into a sellers' market. To find the sort of luxury condos available in this exclusive island, search Fisher Island condos for sale here.

Fisher Island Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 30

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Conclusion: Q4 2020 Miami Beach Market

With the market having been poised for a rebound in Q3, the numbers in Q4 2020 confirm a full market recovery from the pandemic-related mid-year pause. Quarterly sales were up across the board, much like the overall market trend in Miami. While Fisher Island (142.9%) and Sunny Isles Beach (140.7%) reported the highest sales growth in Q4 2020, only Mid-North Beach posted a decline (-17.6%) in year-over-year numbers.

Sales: On an annual basis, total sales in Miami Beach, South Beach, and Mid-North Beach were down compared to 2019, just like the overall Miami trend, but must be viewed through the lens of the mid-year slow-down. However, Fisher Island and Sunny Isles Beach deviated from the trend to post the highest growth in annual sales as well – emerging as buyer favorites in 2020. 

The 12-month trendline at the end of Q4 was positive across the board, just like the overall Miami market trend.

Prices: For Q4 2020, the Price per Square Foot was mostly down like the overall market, with Miami Beach, South Beach, Surfside and Bal Harbour plus Sunny Isles Beach reporting year-over-year declines. Fisher Island was the only neighborhood to report a year-over-year increase of 8.2% in its Price per Square Foot, making it the most expensive neighborhood in not just Miami Beach, but also Miami overall.

In Q4 2020, the Price per Square Foot in South Beach fell to below the $1,000-mark, giving buyers a great entry point into the neighborhood. Other than that, Surfside and Bal Harbour (combined) posted the lowest Price per Square Foot ($651) for luxury condos in Miami Beach, making it the best entry point for buyers into this coastal grouping.

On an annual basis, the Price per Square Foot posted varied trends, however, a majority of the neighborhoods reported flat prices in the 2020-over-2019 analysis.

Days on Market: In Q4 2020, the Days on Market were down across the board in Miami Beach, just like the overall Miami trend. Only Sunny Isles Beach deviated with an increase in its year-over-year Days on Market. On an annual basis too, the Days on Market were mostly down in Miami Beach, much like the overall market, with only Mid-North Beach and Sunny Isles Beach reporting no change from 2020 to 2019.

Inventory: As can be expected, with the Q4 2020 sales touching the roof in most neighborhoods, inventory was down across the board. Only South Beach posted an increase in year-over-year trends, also turning it into the sub-market with the heaviest level of inventory in Miami Beach. Fisher Island's dynamic market got closest to reaching the 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market with 15 months of inventory - showing strong signs that this long-standing buyer-friendly market could finally see its end.

With all the pent-up demand from the pandemic months coming through, we still have reason to expect very strong sales momentum in early 2021 because of the following reasons:

• An avalanche of buyers migrating from the high-tax states in the Northeast and West Coast, especially New York and California
• As most big businesses and top executives move to enjoy Miami's zero personal income tax and other tax benefits, we expect more people following them down
• As the uncertainty around the elections has ended, investor-buyers sitting on the bench now find the motivation to act
• As the flexible work from home policies take precedence everywhere, those looking to build a life closer to the beach, have a better lifestyle or simply migrate to a warmer climate can do so

Also, with inventory levels dropping significantly in most neighborhoods and fewer new deliveries expected this year, as real estate experts, we expect 2021 to be the year to watch in terms of switching from this over-extended buyer's market cycle. Certain segments such as Fisher Island plus Coconut Grove and Coral Gables, are the first to show they are moving into a more balanced market position in 2021. This means buyers have a shrinking window of opportunity to control negotiations and exert the upper hand in dealings as they move into 2021.

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Questions or comments about the stats? Interested in browsing the market? Contact Sep at sniakan@blackbookproperties.com or call 305-725-0566.

Cover photo by Avi Werde on Unsplash