If you thought 2021 was a year of record numbers, Q1 2022 just surpassed all expectations. The buying fever we saw throughout 2021 showed no signs of stopping, as Miami's luxury condo market opened with the best first quarter in more than 7 years of our reporting. Domestic as well as international buyers contributed evenly to the heightened demand that has been taking Miami's luxury housing market by storm. And, with the second quarter usually being the strongest of the year, we expect the market to stay hot.

Overall, in Q1 2022, sales jumped to their highest level for a first quarter. Price per Square Foot peaked to a new high – showing sellers received great value for their luxury condos in Miami. The Days on Market declined – capturing the positive mood of the market. And, Inventory shrunk to a new low, giving sellers a better grip on the market until all the newly announced condo product is built and delivered.

Brickell and Edgewater continued trending as the hottest luxury condo markets in Miami – reporting the highest percentage sales growth over Q1 last year. Fisher Island, as usual,  maintained its status as the most expensive neighborhood in Miami, while Downtown Miami emerged as the best entry point for buyers into luxury condos affording the lowest price per square foot of all neighborhoods under review in Q1 2022.

Read on for a detailed analysis of the quarterly data on how prices, days on market, and inventory responded to strong buyer demand and more in our full-length Q1 2022 Miami Luxury Condo Market Report:

This luxury condo market report only includes data for properties priced $1 million and above, and covers the neighborhoods of Greater Downtown Miami (including Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown), Miami Beach (inclusive of South Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach, and Fisher Island), as well as Coral Gables and Coconut Grove.

Q1 2022 - Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Highlights

• Record-setting Q1 2022 posts highest quarterly sales in over 7 years (703 sales)
• Brickell and Edgewater continue as Miami's most popular neighborhoods, leading sales growth with a 259% and 194% year-over-year increase, respectively
• Overall Prices report year-over-year increase – Median Sales Price up 3.2% with 13.1% increase in Price per Sq. Ft.
• Fisher Island was most expensive neighborhood in Q1 2022 with a median price of $1,881/sq. ft. – maintains top spot for 5 quarters in a row
• Fisher Island's luxury condos offer maximum value to sellers with highest percentage growth (40%) in year-over-year Price per Sq. Ft.
• All building segments (newly built to classic) report sales growth – with buildings dated 2000-2014 again posting the highest sales volume of all
• Sellers consistently received a maximum return on investment (ROI) for condos built before 2000
• Days on Market down 36.1% year-over-year
• Inventory down 61% year-over-year to 7 months
• Fisher Island, Coconut Grove & Coral Gables, plus Surfside and Bal Harbour post the lowest inventory (3, 5 and 5 months) of all Miami neighborhoods

Table of Contents

1. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales
3. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
4. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
5. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Price Trends by Building Year
6. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
7. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
8. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
9. Conclusion
10. Where does the Miami Luxury Condo Market go from Here?
    
    

Highest Luxury Condo Sales for a 1st Quarter

Q1 Sales up 47.1% year-over-year – highest-ever in a first quarter

Outpacing all previous years under our review, Miami's luxury condo market reported its highest number of sales in a first quarter since 2015 (and before by personal observation) – carrying forward the fantastic momentum we saw throughout 2021 (Fig. 1.2):

Quarterly Sales Comparison - Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market

• Q1 2022 vs Q1 2021. Sales soared 47.1% to 703, up from 478 last year, (Fig. 1.1).
• Q1 2022 vs Q1 2020. Sales jumped 336.6%, up from 161 in 2020 (pandemic year) to 703 this year, (Fig. 1.1a).

Looking at Monthly Sales (Fig. 1.3), 2022 got off to a great start, with numbers soaring towards the tail-end of the first quarter – posting the market's best March yet: 

• January 2022 closed with 1.5 times the sales (166) of January last year (92). 
• February also posted 1.5 times (216) the sales of the same month in 2021 (148).
• March also posted 1.5 times the sales (321) compared to March 2020 (238).

Even with a record-setting first quarter, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 1.4 shifted into a slightly negative trajectory from a flat-positive in Q4 2021. This was mostly due to a slowdown in the Miami Beach neighborhoods (see neighborhood reports for more details).

However, since the second quarter of the year is generally the strongest (based on historical data), we expect sales to maintain intensity in the second quarter.

Overall Miami Quarterly Luxury Condo Sales 2015 - 2022 - Fig. 1.2

Overall Miami Monthly Luxury Condo Sales Jan. 2016 to Mar. 2022 - Fig. 1.3

Overall Miami 12-Month Luxury Condo Sales with Trendline - Fig. 1.4

Q1 2022 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales

Q1 2022 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Sales Trends (Fig. 1.5)

• Winners: Brickell reported the highest percentage (259%) growth in year-over-year sales, followed by Edgewater (194%)
• Up: These Miami neighborhoods posted increases in year-over-year sales:
• Downtown (67%)
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (50%)
• Sunny Isles Beach (43%)
• South Beach (21%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour (12%)

• Flat: Fisher Island sales were flat for compared to Q4 2021.
• Down: Mid/North Beach (-5%) sales declined in year-over-year sales.

More in-depth analysis and details are available in dedicated reports for Greater Downtown Miami, Miami Beach and the Barrier Islands, plus Coral Gables & Coconut Grove.

Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison 1Q22-over-1Q21 - Fig. 1.5

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Prices - Price per Square Foot & Sales Price Up

Q1 2022 Price per Square Foot peaked to $940, Median Price up 3.2% year-over-year. As buyer demand stayed intense, sellers across Miami received a premium for their luxury condos:

Q1 2022 Median Price Trends (Fig. 1.1) – Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market

• Q1 2022 vs Q1 2021. Price per Square Foot peaked to its highest in over 6 years of our reporting (Fig. 2.1). At $940, price was up 13.1% year-over-year, up from $831 in Q1 last year.
• Q1 2022 vs Q1 2021. Median Sales Price also increased 3.2% year-over-year, up from $1,725,000 last year to $1,780,000 for same quarter 2021.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2022 - Fig. 2.1

Q1 2022 Miami Neighborhood Price Trends

Q1 2022 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Price Trends

Median Price per Square Foot (Fig. 2.2)

• Winner: Fisher Island held its position as the most expensive neighborhood for the 5th quarter in a row, fetching a median price of $1,881/sq. ft.
• Winner: Fisher Island again reported the highest percentage growth (40%) in year-over-year Price per Square Foot
• Up: Other neighborhoods posting an increase in year-over-year Price per Square Foot: 
• Surfside and Bal Harbour - $1,136/sf (31%)
• Sunny Isles Beach - $922/sf (28%)
• Coconut Grove and Coral Gables - $819/sf (23%)
• Brickell - $799/sf (17%)
• Downtown Miami - $716/sf (13%)
• Edgewater - $824/sf (12%)
• Mid/North Beach - $996/sf (9%)
• Flat: South Beach posted a negligible change (+1%) in year-over-year Price per Square Foot

Miami Neighborhood 1Q22-over-1Q21 Median Price per Square Foot. Comparison - Fig. 2.2

Median Sales Price (Fig. 2.3)

• Winner: Fisher Island again reported the highest percentage growth in year-over-year Median Sales Price at 68%.
• Winner: Fisher Island continued posting the highest Median Sales Price for a 6th consecutive quarter at $8.3 million – keeping its place as the most premium zip code in Miami.
• Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year Median Sales Price:
• Surfside & Bal Harbour - $2.7 million (31%)
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables - $1.8 million (21%)
• Edgewater - $1.6 million (19%)
• Sunny Isles Beach - $1.8 million (11%)
• Brickell - $1.5 million (8%)
• Flat: South Beach (2%) and Mid-North Beach (0%) posted a negligible change in their year-over-year Median Sales Price.
• Down: Downtown Miami reported a -19% decline in year-over-year Median Sales Price.

Miami Neighborhood 1Q22-over-1Q21 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.3

Q1 2022 Overall Miami Sales Price Trends by Building Year - Mixed

Below is a detailed analysis of how Miami luxury condo buildings performed in Q3 2021 on the basis of age of construction of the condo building, categorized as new construction buildings (2015-2021), buildings built from 2000-2014, and pre-2000 buildings.

• New Construction Buildings reported sales growth, with first quarter volumes staying higher than any of the previous years under review. Year-over-year price value remained flat.
• Buildings Dated 2000-2014 posted the highest sales volume (326) of all 3 segments under review, along with increasing to their highest price value in over 6 years.
• Condos Built before 2000 reported sales growth, with first quarter volumes staying higher than any of the previous years under review. Also, sellers received the best value of all 3 segments with a 26.4% increase in year-over-year prices.

Miami New Construction Condos Built 2015-2022

As expected, freshly-built luxury condos in Miami were quite in demand. The segment posted a 73.8% growth in year-over-year sales and a 36.9% increase in quarter-over-quarter sales (Fig. 3.1). With 245 sales, the segment closed Q1 2022 with the highest volume recorded in a first quarter.

Anecdotally, we are also seeing exceptionally high demand for pre-construction luxury condos. Most projects are selling out before shovels could hit the ground. Many of these pre-construction sales are not recording in centralized databases, and thus are not included in our quarterly sales data and reports.

 

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales for Buildings Dated 2015-2022 - Fig. 3.1

Fig. 3.2 shows this newly-built segment closed the quarter at $1,054/sq. ft., giving sellers decent value, even as prices declined slightly quarter-over-quarter. The Price per Square Foot for the segment was down 3.5% quarter-over-quarter and marginally lower (2%) year-over-year.

Miami New Construction Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot (Buildings Built 2015-2022) - Fig. 3.2

Miami Luxury Condos Built 2000-2014

In line with the overall market trend, luxury condos built 2000-2014 reported their highest volume recorded in a first quarter. With 326 sales, the segment posted a 45.5% growth in year-over-year numbers and a 28.3% increase in quarter-over-quarter sales (Fig. 3.3).

Maintaining the highest sales volume of all 3 segments under review, buildings built 2000-2014 were the most popular among buyers for Q1 2022.

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.3

Fig. 3.4 shows this segment (built 2000-2014) closed the quarter at a peak price of $909/sq. ft., giving sellers the best value for their properties to date. The Price per Square Foot for the segment was mostly flat (0.7%) quarter-over-quarter, but 8% higher year-over-year.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.4

Miami Luxury Condos Built Before 2000

In line with the positive mood of the overall market, older luxury buildings (built pre-2000) also posted their highest recorded volume for a first quarter. With 125 sales, the segment posted a 11.2% growth in year-over-year numbers and a 6% increase in quarter-over-quarter sales (Fig. 3.5).

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.5

Fig. 3.6 shows this classic segment closed the quarter at a peak price of $872/sq. ft., affording sellers the best value for their luxury condos to date. The Price per Square Foot for the segment was up 12.8% quarter-over-quarter, and an incredible 26.4% higher year-over-year.

Overall Miami Luxury Condos Price per Sq. Ft.  (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.6

Overall Miami Luxury Condos - Days on Market Down YoY, But Up QoQ

Days on Market up 8.6% quarter-over-quarter. In Q1 2022, luxury condos spent 6 extra days on market compared to Q4 2021 (Fig. 4.1). This slight increase could be due to older inventory making its way back onto the market, as in condos previously listed, but paused until sellers found the market to be more lucrative. 

On a year-over-year basis, luxury condos spent 43 fewer days on market (DOM) compared to Q1 2021 – a 36.1% decline in keeping with the dramatic pace of the market.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2022 - Fig. 4.1

Q1 2022 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market Continues Dropping

Q1 2022 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Days on Market Trends (Fig. 4.2)

• Winner: Edgewater condos spent just 23 days on the market, a decline of 82 days year-over-year (-79%) – showing condos sold almost immediately.
• Down: Other neighborhoods posting a decline in their Median Days on Market for luxury condos in Miami:
• Brickell - 52 days (-69%)
• Fisher Island - 50 days  (-63%)
• Sunny Isles Beach - 82 days (-46%)
• South Beach - 76 days (-32%)
• Mid/North Beach - 69 days (-26%)
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables - 63 days (-12%) 
• Downtown - 92 days (-3%)
• Up: Surfside and Bal Harbour reported a 37% increase in year-over-year Days on Market for luxury condos.

Miami Neighborhood 1Q22-Over-1Q21 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.2

Luxury Condo Inventory Down to Record Low of 7 months – Seller's Market Thrives

Q1 2022 closed with 7 months of inventory. By now it's no secret that luxury condos are in high demand across Miami, especially by domestic buyers migrating from high-tax states such as New York and California, as well as a major move of financial and tech companies to the area. This has pushed Miami's luxury condo inventory down to its lowest levels we've seen in more than 6 years of our reporting:

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory dropped to 7 months this March down from 9 months in December 2021, a 22.2% decline.
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory was down from 18 months in March 2021 – an incredible 61% drop (Fig. 5.1).

Considering a balanced market should hold 9-12 months of inventory, at 7 months, Miami's luxury condo market is strongly favoring sellers. This means sellers have complete control over negotiations and most properties are selling at a premium with multiple offers and often cash offers.

As luxury condo experts, we recommend buyers to put in very strong offers (preferably above asking price) to secure the luxury home they desire. For sellers looking to turn a profit, we recommend acting soon as the market is expected to remain seller-friendly, continuing with low levels of inventory, until all the newly announced luxury condo projects are built and delivered.

Overall Miami Months of Luxury Condo Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Mar. 2022 - Fig. 5.1

A balanced market has about 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as the number of active listings + number of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Miami Overall Luxury Condo Market - Q1 2022 Conclusion

Seller's market holds: Strong sales, higher prices, and lower inventory

As predicted in our Q4 2021 Miami Luxury Condo Market Report, Q1 2022 got off to a booming start as a seller's market. With the highest sales volume posted in a first quarter since 2015, the luxury condo market confirmed that it had crossed a major threshold of scale in Miami.

Brickell and Edgewater again reported triple-digit sales growth, settling their status as two of Miami's most popular neighborhoods. Leading sales growth in Miami, Brickell closed Q1 2022 with a 259% year-over-year increase while Edgewater reported a 194% increase. Mid-North Beach was the only neighborhood to report a decline (5%) in year-over-year sales.

Even though momentum was high across the board, the 12-month sales trendline curved slightly negative, owing to a relative slack reported by Miami Beach neighborhoods. Still, as luxury real estate experts, we expect the second quarter to come in strong, considering it is generally the best-performing quarter of the year. We will also be keeping a close watch on when the market hits a ceiling, as it has been in overdrive for over a year.

On the price front, sellers across Miami received a premium on their property values. Of all the Miami neighborhoods under review, luxury condos in Fisher Island again offered the highest year-over-year increase in value (40%). Buildings built 2000-2014 remained the popular choice among buyers, posting the highest sales volume of all 3 segments under review (newly built to classic). And again, the older luxury condo buildings of Miami (built before 2000) offered the highest value to sellers with an impressive 26.4% increase in year-over-year prices.

The Days on Market metric has been steadily declining across Miami, reflecting this increased demand and availability of able buyers to close, as well as consistency between buyer-seller expectations. Luxury condos in Edgewater were the quickest to sell, reporting only 23 days on market (on median) in Q1 2022.

With market demand still peaking, inventory fell to a brand-new low of 7 months in Q1 2022. As inventory is lower than the ideal 9–12-month marker of a balanced market, Miami's luxury condo has secured itself as a seller's market. This means sellers will continue enjoying multiple offers on their units, while buyers will have to put in highly competitive offers (over asking price) to lock in the luxury condo they desire.

For buyers looking to see the kind of inventory available on the market, you can search for all currently listed luxury condos for sale in Miami here. 

Miami's Luxury Condo Market Prediction 2022: Where Does the Market Go From Here?

As expected, 2022 was off to a flying start, creating a new sales high seen in the first quarter of the year. Market winds are still strongly in favor of sellers, with prices peaking and inventory touching new lows with each passing quarter. As luxury condo experts, we have a keenly positive outlook for Q2 2022 with momentum adjusting only seasonally later in the year.

Going forward into 2022, we expect the following factors to continue influencing Miami's luxury condo market performance and direction:

Interest rate increases: One metric we are watching closely is the increase in interest rates. While the Miami luxury condo market is very strong and seeing a lot of cash offers that wouldn't likely be affected by increased interest rates, some buyers may choose to wait on the sidelines to buy, or look to pre-construction projects if they are able to wait. We will be watching this closely, but don't expect an appreciable affect on the overall strength of the current market. 

Cryptocurrency and safe investment haven. With the Bitcoin 2022 Conference taking place in Wynwood and most Miami developers keeping a warm attitude towards accepting payments in cryptocurrency, we expect Miami to attract a new wave of buyers and more sellers to accept bitcoin. It's no secret that Miami has always been a top favorite among South American and other foreign buyers as a safer haven to park investments away from the (social and political) turmoil of home. Topping that with Miami's crypto-friendly attitude, we expect more tech-savvy investors to use Bitcoin or Ethereum to invest or purchase a luxury condo here.

Valuable tax savings and continued business migration. Miami has turned into the new melting pot for startups to established businesses from across the nation. Following these businesses, we also have a huge wave of high net worth individuals, top-tier management, and staff needing to set up home close to work in a global city like ours. As real estate experts, we expect this domestic demand for luxury housing to continue trending into 2022.

Work-from-home flexibility. Miami is known to offer the complete package of an energetic global city and relaxing beachside destination rolled into one. This, along with a wider acceptability of work-from-home policies will continue driving people to choose a home with inspiring water, marina, or lush tropical views.

Miami's branded luxury. With each quarter, Miami continues to add the biggest to quirkiest names to its list of branded luxury condos. Those familiar with and looking to live the Aston Martin experience, or St. Regis, Cirpriani, Missoni, Bentley, Diesel, or NoMad experience will continue to be drawn to our city in great numbers.

Low levels of inventory. Although Miami's pre-construction market is in overdrive with developers announcing new projects by the droves, it will take a while for this new condo inventory to be delivered. With sales staying strong and fewer deliveries in the immediate future (read next 2-3 years), we expect inventory levels to stay low in this seller's market.

If you'd like more details on the data in our exclusive Condo Blackbook quarterly luxury condo market reports, please send us an email or call us anytime.

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