Miami Luxury Condo Market Report Q1 2024: Stability, the New Normal
May 16, 2024 May 16, 2024
With steady sales growth, moderate price gains, and relatively fast sales, Miami's luxury housing market established a new normal as it kicked off 2024 on a strong note. Despite the national housing market's challenging situation, prices performed well, closing at an all-time high with luxury properties selling within two-three months of being listed. As our expert condo analytics show, luxury condo prices are not going down in Miami anytime soon. This indicates great market health and consistent buyer demand as our sunny shores expand to welcome more homeowners.
In our neighborhood-by-neighborhood Miami condo market analysis
- Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (collectively) emerged as the most popular market for luxury condo buyers in Q1 2024 closing with the highest year-over-year increase in sales (16%).
- Fisher Island maintained its status quo as the most expensive zip code in Miami with a price of $1,839 per square foot.
- And Downtown Miami continued as the best entry point into Miami's luxury condo market with the lowest price per square foot of all the neighborhoods under review ($790).
Finally, Miami real estate market trends showed inventory went up to 20 months for this quarter.
But, does that mean Miami's luxury condo market closed as a balanced market or is inching its way towards giving buyers the advantage? Read on to find our detailed analysis of the quarterly data on sales, prices, days on market, and inventory in our Q1 2024 Miami Luxury Condo Market Report.
This luxury condo market report for Q1 2024 only includes data for properties priced at $1 million and above. It covers the neighborhoods of Greater Downtown Miami (including Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown), Miami Beach (including South Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach, and Fisher Island), and Coral Gables and Coconut Grove.
Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Q1 2024 | ||
Quarterly sales down -7.9% YoY — Outpaced pre-pandemic market | Overall luxury condo price/sq. ft. up by 2.7% YoY to Highest-ever —$990/SF | Inventory up to 20 months |
Q1 2024 - Most Important Miami Luxury Condo Market Updates
- Q1 2024 Sales outperformed 2020 and earlier levels.
- Strong open to 2024, with a 20% increase in sales and 12% in Median Price compared to Q4 2023. Sales were 7.9% lower compared to Q1 2023, indicating market stability.
- Overall Prices reported positive year-over-year stats. Price per Square Foot increased by 2.7%, while Median Sales Price increased by 5.6% to $1.9M.
- Price per Square Foot touched a new all-time high of $990/square foot.
- Fisher Island remained the most expensive market for luxury condos in Q1 2024, reporting a median price of $1,839/square foot.
- Coconut Grove & Coral Gables emerged as Miami's most popular neighborhood in Q1 2024, leading sales growth with a 16% year-over-year increase.
- Luxury condos in Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (collectively) offered maximum value to sellers reporting the highest percentage gains (15%) in year-over-year Price per Sq. Ft. South Beach followed closely with a 14% increase.
- Luxury condos built in 2000-2014 continued dominating with the highest sales volumes of all the three segments under our review. All segments reported higher quarterly volumes compared to Q4 2020 and earlier.
- Sellers received maximum return on investment (ROI) for new construction condos built 2015-2024.
- Days on Market were up 3.9% year-over-year.
- Coconut Grove & Coral Gables remained Miami's fastest-selling market, with luxury condos taking only 64 days to sell.
- Overall Inventory was up 25% year-over-year to 20 months.
- Coconut Grove & Coral Gables continued reporting the lowest months of inventory (9 months) of all the Miami neighborhoods under our review.
- Our Miami condo markets reports for 2024 confirmed the market remained in equilibrium even as inventory suggested buyer-friendly conditions in Q1 2024.
Table of Contents
- Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
- Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends
- Overall Miami Sales Price Trends by Building Year
- Overall Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
- Overall Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
- Conclusion
- Miami Luxury Condo Market Prediction for 2024
— Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
Q1 2024 vs Q4 2023 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1 | |||||||
Quarters | Number of Sales | % change in Sales | Median Sale Price | % change in Median Sale Price | Median Sp/Sqft | % change in Median Sp/Sqft | Median of DOM |
Q1 2024 | 349 | 19.9% | $1,900,000 | 12.4% | $990 | 4.2% | 79 |
Q4 2023 | 291 | $1,690,000 | $951 | 64 |
Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1.1 | |||||||
Quarters | Number of Sales | % change in Sales | Median Sale Price | % change in Median Sale Price | Median Sp/Sqft | % change in Median Sp/Sqft | Median of DOM |
Q1 2024 | 349 | -7.9% | $1,900,000 | 5.6% | $990 | 2.7% | 79 |
Q1 2023 | 379 | $1,800,000 | $964 | 76 |
Bouncing back from its holiday mood (as is expected every year after a slow-paced winter), Miami's luxury condo market marched strong into 2024. Exceeding all pre-Q4 2020 quarters, it reported a robust pace, almost on par with year-ago volumes, indicating a period of stability plus a new normal for Miami's luxury housing market.
Key Luxury Condo Sales Statistics for Q1 2024
- Q1 2024 vs Q4 2023. Sales increased 19.9% quarter-over-quarter, up from 291 in Q4 2023 to 349 this quarter. (Fig. 1)
- Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023. Sales declined only 7.9%, down from 379 in the previous year to 349 sales in Q1 2024. (Fig. 1.1)
With quarter-over-quarter sales increasing in line with historical trends and our year-over-year analysis revealing only a slight decline in volume, it is evident from condo market news that Miami's luxury housing market is now operating in a new normal. Quarterly sales in this new normal continue to exceed pre-pandemic levels, even if they aren't as high as those noted during and right after the pandemic. This is a sign of great market health with potential for sustainable growth.
The Monthly Sales chart (Fig. 1.3) shows volumes closed mostly on par with 2023 levels:
- January 2024 closed with 89 sales, the same as a year ago.
- February closed with 114 luxury condo sales, matching levels from the previous year.
- March closed with 146 sales, slightly down from the previous year's 176 sales for the same month.
Even as the market gradually paced up with peak season (typically Q2) around the corner, the 12-month Sales Trendline stayed negative between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024.
And although a negative curving trendline would indicate a slowdown for the upcoming quarter, as luxury condo experts, we expect the market to continue picking up pace since we will be in the thick of the high season.
Overall Miami Quarterly Luxury Condo Sales 2015 - 2024 - Fig. 1.2
Overall Miami Monthly Luxury Condo Sales Jan. 2016 to Mar. 2024 - Fig. 1.3
Overall Miami 12-Month Luxury Condo Sales with Trendline - Fig. 1.4
Number of Sales per Miami Neighborhood
Q1 2024 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Sales Trends (Fig. 1.5)
- Winner: Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (collectively) reported the highest percentage growth in year-over-year sales with 16%.
- Up: Surfside and Bal Harbour (combined) is the only other Miami neighborhood in our analysis to report an increase in year-over-year sales (43%).
- Flat: Downtown Miami reported the same number of sales as in Q1 2023 (18 sales), while Mid-North Beach reported a negligible change of 2% (43 vs. 42 sales a year ago).
- Down: These Miami neighborhoods reported a decline in year-over-year sales:
- Fisher Island (-30%)
- South Beach (-20%)
- Brickell (-19%)
- Edgewater (-15%)
- Sunny Isles Beach (-8%)
Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison 1Q24-over-1Q23 - Fig. 1.5
— Overall Luxury Miami Condo Market Trends: Prices
Continuing with single-digit price appreciation, Miami's luxury condo market reported stable gains for sellers in Q1 2024. Closing the quarter with the highest median Price per Square Foot to date at $990, sellers received top-dollar for their luxury property investments in Miami.
Key Price Statistics for Q1 2024
- Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023. Price per Square Foot increased 2.7%, up from $964 in Q1 last year to $990 in the comparable quarter of 2024 (Fig. 1.1).
- Q1 2024 vs Q4 2023. Price per Square Foot increased 4.2%, up from $951 in the previous quarter to $990 in Q1 2024 (Fig. 1).
- Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023. Median Sales Price increased 5.6% year-over-year, up from $1,800,000 in Q1 last year to $1,900,000 for the same quarter of 2024 (Fig. 1.1).
- A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly luxury condo prices in the below Miami housing prices chart (Fig. 2.1), shows that the Price per Square Foot touched a brand-new high, closing at $990/sq. ft. This means that sellers received strong offers, and most deals resulted in gains.
Overal Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2024 - Fig. 2.1
Miami Neighborhood Condo Housing Price Trends: Q1 2024
Median Price per Square Foot (Fig. 2.2)
- Winner: Fisher Island maintained its title as the most expensive neighborhood in Miami, recording a median price of $1,839/sq. ft.
- Winner: Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (collectively) reported the in year-over-year Price per Square Foot ($851), closely followed by South Beach with a 14% gain ($1,397/sq. ft.), giving sellers great value for their luxury properties this first quarter.
- Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year Price per Square Foot:
- Sunny Isles Beach – $948 (7%)
- Surfside and Bal Harbour – $1,210 (3%)
- Brickell – $887 (3%)
- Downtown Miami – $790 (3%)
- Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decline in year-over-year Price per Square Foot:
- Fisher Island – $1,839 (-17%)
- Mid/North Beach – $1,077(-6%)
- Edgewater – $924 (-6%)
Miami Neighborhood 1Q24-over-4Q23 Median Price per Square Foot Comparison - Fig. 2.2
Median Sales Price (Fig. 2.3)
- Winner: South Beach posted the highest percentage increase (26%) in year-over-year Median Sales Price ($2.3 million), closely followed by Surfside and Bal Harbour reporting a 23% gain ($3.1 million) in Q1 2024.
- Winner: Fisher Island stayed the most expensive zip code in Miami and South Florida for luxury condos, recording a median price of $6.1 million.
- Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year Median Sales Price:
- Mid-North Beach – $1.9 million (10%)
- Fisher Island – $6.1 million (8%)
- Downtown Miami – $1.4 million (3%)
- Flat: Coconut Grove & Coral Gables reported the same Median Sales Price as Q1 2023 ($1.9 million).
- Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decline in year-over-year Median Sales Price:
- Edgewater – $1.5 million (-13%)
- Brickell – $1.4 million (-12%)
- Sunny Isles Beach – $1.9 million (-3%)
Miami Neighborhood 1Q24-over-1Q23 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.3
Explore the best Miami luxury condos for sale in Miami here.
— Overall Miami Sales Price Trends by Building Year
While many other Miami housing market reports show basic sales and pricing data, we delve into more detail, analyzing sales and pricing performance by the age of the building. This is how Miami luxury condo buildings performed in Q1 2024 based on their age of construction, categorized as new construction condo buildings (2015-2024), buildings built from 2000-2014, and pre-2000 condo buildings.
- New Construction Buildings echoed the same sales trends as seen in the overall market and higher volumes compared to 2020 and earlier. The segment further posted a new peak price of $1,313/sq. ft. with the highest year-over-year price gain (19.7%) of all the segments under review.
- Buildings dated 2000-2014 continued reporting the highest sales volume (147) out of all three segments under review, along with prices peaking at a new all-time high of $1,026/sq. ft.
- Condos built before 2000, too, reported a positive sales trend, while closing Q1 2024 at $861/sq. ft.
Miami New Construction Condos (built 2015-2024)
Reflecting the overall market mood, sales for Miami's freshly-built luxury condo segment declined 14.9% year-over-year but improved 14.1% quarter-over-quarter. With 97 sales, volumes in this segment exceeded levels from Q4 2020 and earlier, confirming market strength.
Note: Anecdotally, we are seeing exceptionally high demand for pre-construction luxury condos as one of the major Miami real estate market trends for 2024. Most projects are selling out before shovels hit the ground. Many of these pre-construction sales are not recorded in centralized databases and thus are not included in our quarterly sales data and reports.
To see current Miami Pre-Construction Projects in development, see our Miami Condo Development Guide. Or use our free and customizable search tool.
Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales for Buildings Dated 2015-2024 - Fig. 3.1
Given the attraction of brand-new homes and the completion of upscale projects such as Missoni Baia and Smart Brickell I as recently as last year, it is easy to see why the Price per Square Foot in this segment hit an all-time high.
The Miami housing prices chart below (Fig. 3.2 ) shows that this segment closed the quarter at a peak price of $1,313/sq. ft., offering sellers excellent value for their investments. The Price per Square Foot increased 19.7% year-over-year (from $1,097/sq. ft.) and 3.4% quarter-over-quarter (from $1,270/sq. ft.).
Miami New Construction Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot (Buildings Built 2015-2024) - Fig. 3.2
Miami Luxury Condos Built 2000-2014
Echoing the overall market trend, luxury condo sales in this segment posted a 15% decline in year-over-year numbers, but a 25.6% increase in quarter-over-quarter numbers (Fig. 3.3). With 147 sales, volumes in this segment, too, outperformed all quarters before Q1 2021.
Again, with the highest sales volume of all three segments under review, buildings built 2000-2014 continued to be the most popular among buyers in Q1 2024.
Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.3
Consistently giving sellers the best value for their properties, luxury condos in this segment (built 2000-2014) closed the quarter with a new peak price of $1,026/sq. ft. The Price per Square Foot in this segment increased 11.6% year-over-year and 12.4% quarter-over-quarter (Fig. 3.4).
Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.4
Miami Luxury Condos Built Before 2000
With 101 sales, this classic segment (built pre-2000) reported a 13.5% increase in year-over-year volume and an 18.8% uptick in quarter-over-quarter sales (Fig. 3.5). Echoing the overall market energy with higher sales compared to pre-pandemic quarters, this classic segment, too, demonstrated a paradigm shift into the new normal detailed above.
Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.5
Prices in this classic segment closed the quarter at $861 per square foot, up 3.6% year over year and down 6.4% quarter over quarter.
Overall Miami Luxury Condos Price per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.6
— Overall Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
As expected, the Days on Market (DOM) increased as we entered the new year. Historically, the trend typically increases during the first quarter as more listings enter the market at the end of the year and ahead of high season, and then it declines going into the second quarter.
Days on Market Statistics
- Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023. Luxury condos spent three more days on the market compared to Q1 2023, reporting a 3.9% increase in year-over-year DOM. (Fig. 1.1)
- Q1 2024 vs Q4 2023. Luxury condos spent 15 more days on the market compared to Q4 2023 – reporting a 23.4% uptick in quarter-over-quarter DOM. (Fig. 1)
- Taking 79 days to sell on average, luxury condos sold at a healthy pace during Q1 2024, indicating great buyer-seller communication. It is further worth noting that luxury condos took about 100+ days to sell on average in the pre-pandemic market. (Fig. 4.1)
Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2024 - Fig. 4.1
Miami Neighborhood: Days on Market Trends
- Winner: Luxury condos in Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (collectively) spent only 64 days on the market, making it the fastest-selling neighborhood of Q1 2024 with a 24% decline in year-over-year stats.
- Down: Other neighborhoods reporting a decline in year-over-year Days on Market:
- Sunny Isles Beach – 72 days (-17%)
- Flat: Downtown Miami (65 days) and Fisher Island (106 days) posted a negligible change of 2% in their year-over-year Days on Market.
- Up: Neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year Days on Market:
- Surfside and Bal Harbour – 67 days (4%)
- South Beach – 83 days (8%)
- Mid/North Beach – 96 days (12%)
- Brickell – 79 days (34%)
- Edgewater – 87 days (42%)
Miami Neighborhood 1Q24-Over-1Q23 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.2
— Overall Luxury Miami Condo Market Trends for Q1 2024: Inventory
With the market stabilizing from the supercharged pace witnessed during and right after the pandemic, it was expected that the months of inventory would report an uptick. Further, as expected of a first quarter, inventory rose and fell towards the tail-end of the quarter, with the high season kicking into action as spring arrived.
- On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory was up from 18 months in December 2023 to 20 months in March 2024, reporting an 11.1% increase.
- On a year-over-year basis, inventory was up from 16 months in March 2023 to 20 months this year, reporting a 25% increase from a year ago (Fig. 5.1).
Considering an ideal market should only hold 9 to 12 months of inventory, at 20 months, we see a theoretical shift towards a buyer's market. However, as real estate experts, we recommend reading it as an equal opportunity market (for buyers and sellers).
We expect inventory to normalize to more balanced levels as we move through the high season in Q2. For future Miami condo market trends, we further forecast a slight uptick in levels throughout 2024 as compared to 2023, but not as high as pre-pandemic, where the statistic would easily stay above 35 months.
With Miami luxury condo prices at an all-time high, we advise sellers to list with confidence and flexible pricing in mind. On the other hand, buyers can look forward to finding more options within their preferred price range as inventory expands to bring a greater variety to the market. If you're considering selling while Miami condo market price trends have reached a record, contact us for a complimentary home valuation.
Overall Miami Months of Luxury Condo Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Mar. 2024 - Fig. 5.1
The months of inventory are calculated as the number of active listings + number of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last six months.
— Conclusion
Following the unprecedented growth seen in 2021 and into 2022, Miami's luxury condo market seems to be on stable footing in Q1 2024. With first-quarter sales just shy of touching 2023 levels (349 in Q1 2024 vs 379 in Q1 2023), volumes remained consistently higher compared to the pre-pandemic market range, where first-quarter sales averaged between 140 to 200.
This indicates a paradigm shift in sales benchmarks. In the Miami luxury housing market's new normal, stable sales and moderate price appreciation lead the way for predictable growth, affording buyers and sellers equal value and opportunity at the negotiation table.
In Q1 2024, Coconut Grove & Coral Gables emerged as Miami's most popular neighborhood, leading year-over-year sales growth with a 16% uptick in volumes. Most other Miami neighborhoods reported a decline in year-over-year sales stats.
The trendline tracking sales over the past 12 months kept its negative curve from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024, indicating a softer path to peak season in Q2 2024.
In our overall price watch, Price per Square Foot recorded its highest-ever at $990/sq. ft. The majority of Miami neighborhoods under review reported year-over-year gains, showing that most sellers received great value for their luxury condo investments.
Of all the neighborhoods under our review, luxury condos in Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (collectively) took the lead by offering the highest year-over-year price appreciation (15%), closely followed by South Beach (14%). Fisher Island continued as the most expensive zip code ($1,839/square foot) in South Florida, while Downtown Miami stood out as the best-priced sub-market for luxury condo buyers with a median price of $790/sq. ft.
Buildings built 2000-2014 continued to be the most popular choice for luxury condo buyers, again reporting the highest sales volume of all three segments under our review. On the other hand, the segment with luxury condos built 2015-2024 afforded the highest value to sellers with a 19.7% gain in year-over-year prices.
Miami luxury condo market news confirms buyers and sellers were generally quick to agree in Q1 2024, considering luxury condos took about 2.5 months (79 days) to sell on average, compared to the 100+ days reported in the pre-pandemic market. Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (collectively) emerged as the fastest-selling neighborhood of Q1 2024, with luxury condos taking only 64 days to sell (on median).
With inventory closing at 20 months, which is above the ideal range, the market might seem to be more buyer-friendly. However, as real estate experts, we recommend reading it as a balanced market, considering consistent buyer demand and our day-to-day interactions with sellers. Further, even as inventory might decline in Q2 as we move through peak season, we expect levels to remain above the 9-12-month range of an ideal market for the rest of 2024.
For buyers or investors looking to browse the kind of inventory available on the market, you can search for all currently listed luxury condos for sale in Miami or contact us directly.
— What's Miami's Luxury Condo Market Prediction in 2024?
With our Miami luxury condo market report Q1 2024 stating clear indicators of positive growth, the outlook for Miami real estate in 2024 is good. And we expect the following factors to influence market performance for the year:
- Broader demographic of buyers. In the upcoming quarters, we expect luxury condo sales to continue to be driven by a broader demographic of buyers than ever before. This new crop includes high-income, international expats and domestic buyers seeking larger condos, well-compensated millennial remote workers, talented tech workers buying all-cash, and foreign investors like Canadians playing a prominent part in the mix.
- Burgeoning economy and immigration of market influencers. With the continued inflow of businesses and elite decision-makers like Jeff Bezos, we expect to host a new class of luxury condo buyers attracted to Miami's newfound status as a sophisticated, corporate destination. Further, as Miami prepares to host FIFA headquarters ahead of the 2026 World Cup and grabs international attention for trade and wealth management, we expect our growing economy to continue to top the charts for domestic and foreign buyer interest.
- International spotlight. In addition to our unbeatable package of sun, sand, and investment-ready luxury, Miami's prime real estate is anticipated to offer a 4% increase in prices (according to Knight Frank's latest wealth report), attracting a major chunk of the 22% of the world's ultra-high net worth individuals anticipated to buy a home in 2024. If you are considering selling, now would be a good time.
- Relatively higher levels of inventory. Owing to a booming pre-construction market delivering much-awaited new construction condos and developers continuing their bullish run with new project announcements, we expect inventory to continue offering a greater variety to buyers. This, paired with a more stable momentum than in the supercharged markets of 2020 and 2021, leads us to expect inventory will continue to expand and edge toward a more buyer-friendly position in 2024.
- Factors that could dampen market enthusiasm. We expect still-high mortgage rates to deter some buyers and sellers from entering the market. Further, with the recent increase in condo association fees owing to new State regulations regarding insurance and special assessments, we expect price pressure to somewhat impact the market, but at lower price points.
If you'd like more details on the data in our exclusive Condo Blackbook quarterly luxury condo market reports, please send us an email or call us anytime.
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