Miami Luxury Condo Report : February 2017

Founder, Condoblackbook.com & Owner/Broker, HB Roswell Realty
Miami Luxury Condo Report : February 2017
Founder, Condoblackbook.com & Owner/Broker, HB Roswell Realty

Mar 17, 2017 March 17, 2017

View the most up-to-date market reports.

Whether you’re a seller or buyer, being inquisitive about the market you’re dealing in is natural. In order to take the guesswork out of the Miami luxury condo market, I’m beginning with a series of monthly reports that will give you the exact figures and analysis on how the luxury market fared in the previous month along with quarter over quarter or year over year comparisons. For the purpose of all my luxury condo market reports, I’ll only be considering condos priced over $600,000. These reports will also feature neighborhood-level data, giving you more in-depth information to help plan your next move.

Please note: All data has been derived from the Southeast Florida MLS

Miami Luxury Condo Report Overall Market Summary

City and Neighborhood Luxury Condo Reports

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Report

South Beach Luxury Condo Report

Mid-Beach Luxury Condo Report

Surfside Luxury Condo Report

Bal Harbour Luxury Condo Report

Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Report

Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Report

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Report

Edgewater / Midtown / A&E District Luxury Condo Report

Brickell Luxury Condo Report

Coral Gables Luxury Condo Report

Miami Luxury Condo Market Report: Summary

When we look at the first quarter for the luxury condo market overall, the number of sales are continuing their decline (fig. 1.1) as days on market continue their ascend (fig. 2.2). However, looking closely at the numbers for February 2017, the patterns seem to be shifting for the better. The number of sales have pushed up and so have the prices. Does this mean the market is finally finding its footing? Or, is this a one-off situation? Time will tell.

The big news is really that there is a very large amount of inventory in the luxury market. Competition is stiff, and condo sales are not happening at the pace they need to. So buyers looking to get a luxury condo in Miami have the upperhand in negotiations.

How Did We Get Here?

Given the glut of luxury inventory, you may be wondering how we got here. First, to get it out of the way, it has only partially to do with new construction adding inventory to the market. The real culprit is the strength of the U.S. dollar which has gone up 20-40%+ against many of our key international buyers' (and their respective currencies), specifically against the Euro and Latin American currencies like the Brazilian Real and the Colombian Peso, that were driving our real estate growth. And with their weakened buying power came weakened demand for Miami (and U.S.) real estate from those buyers. On top of that, we had the zika virus which came and went but left its mark, as well as the contentious U.S. Presidential elections. Now that zika and the elections (two things that can make you sick) have passed, there are already small signs that the sales pace is bouncing back. It remains to be seen how strongly it bounces and how quickly demand can balance out with the current supply.

Take a look below for overall and neighborhood-level luxury condo trends and numbers for February 2017:

Monthly Number of Sales - Miami Luxury Condo Market Overall

The sales transaction report is fig. 1.1 shows how the numbers have been taking a toll most quarters over the past two years. However, if you look closely, the decline isn’t too steep for the current quarter, indicating that the luxury condo market could finally be finding its flooring in terms of sales volume. This gets more apparent in the monthly chart of fig. 1.2 that traces the decline over the past year, but picks up with February posting a slight increase in the number of sales.

Figure 1.1 –Number of Luxury Condo Sales per Quarter*
(*with QTD projection which takes the quarter-to-date sales and assumes similar sales pace for the remaining part of the quarter)

Figure 1.2 –Number of Luxury Condo Sales per Month

Days on Market - Miami Luxury Condo Market Overall

Days on market are the total days from when a property is active to the day it closes. Overall, the “days on market” for luxury condos has been keeping its ascending trend from the last 2 years, which means condo listings are taking longer to sell. After a slight dip in the last quarter of 2016, the trend is going up again with the median days on market rising to 172. The monthly data in fig. 2.2 again shows how the days on market have been increasing since December 2016.

Figure 2.1 – Luxury Condo Days on Market per Quarter*
Red = Average, Blue = Median
(*with QTD projection which takes the quarter-to-date sales and assumes similar sales pace for the remaining part of the quarter)

Figure 2.2 –Average and Median Days on Market per Month
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Sales Price Trends - Miami Luxury Condo Market Overall

The average sales price (fig. 3.1) for Miami’s luxury condo market has been fairly consistent with a gradual uptick in the last 2 years. Same goes for the average sale price per sq. ft. (fig. 3.2). Further, the median sales price has mostly hovered around the million dollar mark, while the price per sq. ft. has gone up to $633/sq. ft.

However, talking about February 2017 specifically, we’ve had three properties sell over $8 million. This has significantly inflated both the average sales price and price per sq. ft. as seen in fig. 3.1 and 3.2. Now, this is quite unusual because on average you only get to see one sale in that range per month. All of these sales have taken place on the beach, and I’ll get to their impact later through fig. 6.3 and 8.2 individually. But, coming back to the three ultra-luxury condo sales, this could be a sign that either the ultra-wealthy are pretty optimistic about what the new administration is planning, or at least that the contentious elections have now passed and they can focus on business as usual.

Figure 3.1 – Luxury Condo Sales Price Trends*
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Figure 3.2 - Luxury Condo Sales Price per sq ft Trends
Red = Average, Blue = Median

List Price Trends - Miami Luxury Condo Market Overall

The averages on the list price seem to be going hand in hand with the sales prices. The luxury condo market’s average list price (fig. 3.3) and average price per sq. ft. (fig. 3.4) too have been within consistent over the last 2 years, posting a steady increase over the past 3 quarters. So, while the median list price hovers around $1.19 million, the median price per sq. ft. comes to around $718/sq. Ft so far this quarter. However, February’s unusual sales have brought the median list price per sq. ft. up to $866/sq. ft.


Figure 3.3 – Luxury Condo List Price (Asking Price) Trends
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Inventory Trends - Miami Luxury Condo Market Overall

On the inventory front, there are 3.9k active and pending properties on the market, plus another 180 under contract. With an average of 80 deals a month (last 6 months), we’re still looking at 50 months worth of inventory sitting on Miami’s luxury condo market. A balanced market is 9-12 months of inventory, so we are in a very strong buyer’s market. That means buyers have the negotiation power, and good deals will be there for the taking. For sellers, it means that it’s time to be flexible with your price if you don’t have something truly unique.

City and Neighborhood Market Reports

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary

Miami Beach’s luxury condo trends are reflective of Miami’s overall declining average sales (fig. 1.1) and consistent sales prices (3.1). However, looking at January sales and the quarterly projections below, there is some hope that Miami Beach might be rebounding a bit. It will be interesting to see if this streak can be maintained in the coming months.

As far as inventory goes, there are 1.2k active properties on the market, plus another 70 that are under contract. Taking an average of 30 deals a month (considering the last 6 months), Miami Beach has about 43 months of inventory on hand. Again, a strong buyer’s market, which means buyers are in firm control and have the best negotiating power. If you are a buyer, you can search Miami Beach condos for sale here.


Figure 4.1 – Number of Sales per Quarter - Miami Beach*
(*with QTD projection which takes the quarter-to-date sales and assumes similar sales pace for the remaining part of the quarter)

Figure 4.2 – Number of Sales per Month - Miami Beach

Figure 4.3 – Quarterly Average and Median Sales Price - Miami Beach
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Figure 4.4 – Quarterly Average and Median Sales Price per Sq Ft - Miami Beach
Red = Average, Blue = Median

South Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary (33139 zip)

While South Beach’s sales volume (fig. 5.1) is following the overall luxury condo market trend (of declines), the sudden increase in average sales price (fig. 5.2) and price per sq. ft. (fig. 5.3) owes to two sales above $7 million.

South Beach alone has 700 active luxury properties on the market, plus another 40 under contract. Considering an average of 19 deals per month (taking the last 6 months), the waterfront neighborhood has about 39 months of inventory to get through (normal is 9-12 months). That is another indicator that it is a strong buyer’s market, where buyers have negotiation advantage. For an in-depth look into South Beach’s lifestyle condo listings, click here, or search South Beach condos for sale here.

Figure 5.1 – Number of Sales per Quarter - Luxury Condos in South Beach
(*with QTD projection which takes the quarter-to-date sales and assumes similar sales pace for the remaining part of the quarter)

Figure 5.2 – Quarterly Average and Median Sales Price - South Beach Luxury Condos
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Figure 5.3 – Quarterly Average and Median Sales Price per Sq Ft - South Beach Luxury Condos
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Mid-Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary (33140 zip)

Mid-beach has an ultra-luxury sale close at a staggering $16.5 million. However, this exceptional sale only caused a jump in average sales prices for Mid-Beach (fig. 6.3), but not price per sq. ft. (fig. 6.4). Further, looking at fig. 6.1, it seems the number of sales per quarter might be on a rebound here.

Looking at inventory, Mid-Beach has 270 active properties on the market and another 24 currently under contract. Taking into account the average number of 6 deals per month (average from last 6 months), this barrier island neighborhood still has about 46 months worth of inventory. This is a signal that we are in a very strong buyer’s market, and buyers have many choices and a stronger negotiating position in general. Click for a candid tour around Mid-Beach and its condos, or Search Mid-Beach condos for sale here.

Figure 6.1 – Number of Luxury Condo Sales per Quarter – Mid-Beach*
(*with QTD projection which takes the quarter-to-date sales and assumes similar sales pace for the remaining part of the quarter)

Figure 6.2 – Number of Luxury Condo Sales per Month – Mid-Beach

Figure 6.3 – Quarterly Average and Median Sales Price for Luxury Condos – Mid-Beach
Red = Average, Blue = Median
(*with QTD projection which takes the quarter-to-date sales and assumes similar sales pace for the remaining part of the quarter)

Figure 6.4 – Quarterly Average and Median Sales Price per Sq Ft – Mid-Beach
Red = Average, Blue = Median
(*with QTD projection which takes the quarter-to-date sales and assumes similar sales pace for the remaining part of the quarter)

Surfside Luxury Condo Market Summary

Looking at chart 7.1, Surfside’s luxury condo market is still very small, so there have only been a handful of sales over the past year. To get an idea of the market trends, you can look at Bal Harbour or Miami Beach market stats in general to give you an idea of where trends are heading.

Surfside’s inventory trends point to 70 active properties on the market, with an additional 4 pending. Combining that with an average of 2 deals a month (considering the average of last 6 months), it means there is about 41 months worth of inventory sitting on Surfside’s luxury condo market.

Click for a peek through Surfside’s chic neighborhood, or search Surfside condos for sale.

Figure 7.1 – Number of Luxury Sales per Month – Surfside Condos

Figure 7.2 – Quarterly Average and Median Luxury Sales Price per Sq Ft – Surfside Condos
Red = Average, Blue = Median
(*with QTD projection which takes the quarter-to-date sales and assumes similar sales pace for the remaining part of the quarter)

Bal Harbour Luxury Condo Market Summary

The first quarter rang in good news for Bal Harbour, with three luxury deals in the $3 to $5 million dollar rank. These not only shot up the average sales prices for the upscale neighborhood (fig. 8.2 and 8.3), but also made an impact on the overall luxury condo sales price averages.

The inventory trend here has a total of 210 active listings on the market, with an additional 10 under contract. Considering Bal Harbour has an average of 5 deals a month (looking at the last 6 months), this posh neighborhood still has 44 months of inventory on hand. As is the trend in the other condo sub-markets, it’s a strong buyer’s market, and buyer’s have the upper hand in negotiations due to heavy condo inventory.

Click to see what amenities make Bal Harbour’s luxury condos hot property, or Search Bal Harbour condos for sale.


Figure 8.1 – Number of Deals per Month – Bal Harbour Condos

Figure 8.2 – Quarterly Average and Median Sales Price – Bal Harbour Condos
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Figure 8.3 – Quarterly Average and Median Sales Price per Sq Ft – Bal Harbour
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary

Sunny Isles Beach follows the overall trend visible throughout this Miami luxury condo market report with declining sales (fig. 9.1). However, the average sales price per sq. ft. (fig. 9.2) too has been declining in this exclusive neighborhood.

There are currently 830 active condo listings on the market, plus 26 on the pending list. Taking an average of 14 deals a month (last 6 months), Sunny Isles Beach still has 61 months of inventory to deal with. Sellers need to be become much more flexible if they want their properties to move. Buyers will be in firm control for some time to come until the market becomes more balanced at closer to 12 months of inventory.

Get in on what amenities and lifestyle is available in Sunny Isles Beach, or Search Sunny Isles Beach condos for sale here.


Figure 9.1 – Number of Luxury Sales per Month – Sunny Isles Beach Condos

Figure 9.2 – Quarterly Average and Median Luxury Sales Price per Sq Ft – Sunny Isles Beach Condos
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Summary (33133 zip)

The same story of declining sales (fig. 10.1) is repeated in Coconut Grove, with the exception of February posting an increase. It will be interesting to see if the trend sticks in the coming months. Another interesting thing to note in chart 10.4 below is how the average sales price per sq. ft. have suddenly jumped.

On the inventory front, Coconut Grove has 190 active properties on the market and 18 under contract. Considering the average of 9 deals per month (average of last 6 months), we’re looking at 24 months of inventory for this vibrant neighborhood.

See what lifestyle and condo options exist in the historic Coconut Grove.


Figure 10.1 – Number of Luxury Sales per Quarter – Coconut Grove Condos
(*with QTD projection which takes the quarter-to-date sales and assumes similar sales pace for the remaining part of the quarter)

Figure 10.2 – Number of Luxury Sales per Month – Coconut Grove Condos

Figure 10.3 – Quarterly Average and Median Luxury Sales Price – Coconut Grove Condos
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Figure 10.4 – Quarterly Average and Median Sales Price per Sq Ft – Coconut Grove Luxury Condos
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary (33129, 33130, 33131, 33136, 33137 zips)

With all that construction and progress and new construction being delivered every couple of months, you would expect the Greater Downtown Miami area to defy sales volume trends at least, but so far we have a decrease in number of condo sales (fig. 11.1) and small decrease in prices per sq. ft. (fig. 11.3) throughout the quarters.

Greater Downtown Miami luxury condos have the same number of active properties on the market as Miami Beach (1.2k), it has only 37 under contract. However, considering its sluggish pace of an average of 16 deals per month for units over $600K (average of last 6 months), there is now 77 months worth of luxury inventory in Greater Downtown Miami.

Click here to search the greater downtown Miami area condos for sale.

Figure 11.1 – Number of Deals per Quarter – Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condos
(*with QTD projection which takes the quarter-to-date sales and assumes similar sales pace for the remaining part of the quarter)

Figure 11.2 – Number of Deals per Month – Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condos

Figure 11.3 – Quarterly Average and Median Luxury Sales Price per Sq Ft – Greater Downtown Miami Condos

Red = Average, Blue = Median

Edgewater / Midtown / A&E District Luxury Condo Market Summary (33132 + 33137 zip)

In this neighborhood grouping we are also seeing a decline in the number of deals (fig. 12.1). These upcoming neighborhoods have also posted a slight decrease in their collective sales price per sq. ft. (fig. 12.4) which could put a smile on the face of those looking to step in before another boom cycle takes them out of reach.

There are 430 active properties on the market for these neighborhoods, plus another 15 under contract. With an average of 5 deals per month (considering last 6 months), we’re looking at a slow-paced 96 months of inventory. Normal inventory is 9-12 months. This is simply a very serious issue if you are a seller. Buyer’s can negotiate away and chip away at the prices here for the time being.

Check out the individual lifestyle and condo options in Edgewater, Midtown and Arts & Entertainment District. Search Edgewater condos for sale here.

Figure 12.1 – Number of Deals per Quarter – Edgewater, Midtown, A&E District
(*with QTD projection which takes the quarter-to-date sales and assumes similar sales pace for the remaining part of the quarter)

Figure 12.2 – Number of Deals per Month – Edgewater, Midtown, A&E District

Figure 12.3 – Quarterly Average and Median Sales Price – Edgewater, Midtown, A&E District
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Figure 12.4 – Quarterly Average and Median Sales Price per Sq Ft – Edgewater, Midtown, A&E District
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Brickell Luxury Condo Market Summary (33129, 33130, 33131 zip)

Brickell reports show a steep decline in average luxury condo sales as seen in chart 13.1. The average sales price per sq. ft. (fig. 13.3) here are a bit sticky too.

Brickell has 750 active properties on the market, plus another 22 pending. With an average of 11 deals per month (last 6 months average), you’re looking at 70 months of inventory sitting on Brickell’s luxury condo market.

Click to dabble through Brickell’s condos and lifestyle options that are shedding the strictly business tag, or search Brickell condos for sale here.

Figure 13.1 – Number of Sales per Quarter – Brickell
(*with QTD projection which takes the quarter-to-date sales and assumes similar sales pace for the remaining part of the quarter)

Figure 13.2 – Number of Deals per Month – Brickell
(*with QTD projection which takes the quarter-to-date sales and assumes similar sales pace for the remaining part of the quarter)

Figure 13.3 – Quarterly Average and Median Sales Price per Sq Ft – Brickell
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Coral Gables Luxury Condo Market Summary

Only a handful of condo sales take place each month in Coral Gables (fig. 14.1). To me that just makes for volatile stats for the neighborhood, which can’t really help gauge much.

Looking into the inventory trends for Coral Gables, we found 106 active properties on the market plus 14 pending. Taking the average of 5 deals a month (based on data from last 6 months), there is still 27 months worth of inventory left for the neighborhood. Still a little heavy in inventory, but much better than most other Miami neighborhoods.

Click to see what Coral Gables – our city beautiful – has to offer in condos and lifestyle. Or search Coral Gables condos for sale here.


Figure 14.1 – Number of Luxury Condos Sales per Month – Coral Gables
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Figure 14.2 – Quarterly Sales Price per Sq Ft – Coral Gables Luxury Condos
Red = Average, Blue = Median

Conclusion

Buyer’s rejoice. With lots of inventory and historically high competition, buyers seem to be able to get the pick of the litter and have the upper hand in negotiations.

Do you see anything wrong with the stats? Or have any questions? Please contact Sep at sniakan (at) hbroswell.com or call 305-725-0566.

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*with QTD projection = A Quarter To Date Projection that includes data on January + February and automatically projects for March if the trend continues throughout the quarter

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