Q1 2023: Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Report & Statistics (1)

Apr 24, 2023 April 24, 2023
With our first quarter numbers in, the year is off to a robust start in Miami’s urban core. As predicted in our Q4 2022 Greater Downtown luxury condo market report, sales rebounded in anticipation of high season, as buyers took to the market, shaking off any holiday season sluggishness.
In Q1 2023, Downtown Miami emerged as the most resilient market, posting the least negative impact on year-over-year sales stats. The bayfront neighborhood of Edgewater remained the most expensive in Greater Downtown - reporting a median Price/SF of $979. On the other hand, Downtown Miami was the most affordable entry point into Miami’s luxury condo market this first quarter.
Brickell, as well as Edgewater, emerged as the fastest-selling neighborhoods for luxury condos in Miami overall, with properties taking only 2 months (61 days) to sell on average.
With first-quarter sales much higher than those in pre-pandemic years, we, as real estate experts, expect Greater Downtown Miami to continue performing well headed into peak season in Q2 (typical for Miami’s seasonal market) as well as the rest of 2023.
Read below for our exclusive and in-depth analysis of how Greater Downtown, Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown Miami performed over Q1 2023, along with a detailed comparison to the overall Miami luxury condo market trends in terms of sales, prices, days on market, and inventory.
Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q1 2023 YoY (Number of Sales)
Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q1 2023 YoY (Median Sales Pre)
Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q1 2023 YoY (Median SP/SqFt)
Quick summary of Q1 2023 for the Greater Downtown Miami area includes:
- Brickell had the highest sales volume (60 sales)
- Downtown Miami showed least negative impact on YoY sales growth (-47%)
- Edgewater posted the highest median sales price ($1.8 million)
- Edgewater posted the highest price per square foot ($979)
For this report, we’ve only included areas with zipcodes 33129, 33130, 33131, 33132, 33137 – Brickell Hammock, Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Arts & Entertainment District, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District. This luxury condo market report only features properties priced $1 million and above, and generally does not include pre-construction condo sales.
Q1 2023 - Greater Downtown Miami Area Luxury Condo Market Highlights
- Sales dropped 51.9% year-over-year – still higher than any 1Q from 2021 or before.
- 12-month Sales Trendline negative from Q3 2022 to Q1 2023.
- At $896, Price per Square Foot up to highest ever.
- Median Sales Price up 10% year-over-year to $1.6M.
- Days on Market down year-over-year.
- Inventory up to 18 months.
- Greater Downtown Miami, like the overall market, headed towards a balanced market.
Q1 2023 - Greater Downtown Sub-Neighborhood Highlights
- Winner: Downtown Miami was the most resilient market in Q1 with lowest percentage (-47%) impact on year-over-year sales.
- 12-Month Sales Trendline negative across the board.
- Winner: Edgewater luxury condos offered maximum value to sellers in Greater Downtown Miami with highest percentage growth (18%) in year-over-year Price per Sq. Ft.
- Edgewater also reported the second-highest percentage gains in year-over-year Price per Sq. Ft. in Miami overall, right behind Fisher Island.
- Winner: Edgewater remained the most expensive neighborhood in Greater Downtown, priced at $979/Sq. Ft.
- Winner: Edgewater again reported the highest Median Sales Price at $1.8 million.
- Winners: Brickell (-16%) and Edgewater (-14%) emerged as the fastest-selling markets in Greater Downtown and Miami overall, taking only 61 days to sell.
- Edgewater posted the lowest levels of inventory (14 months).
Table of Contents
- Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
- Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends
- Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
- Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
- Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
- Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
- Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
- Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
- Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
- Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
- Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
- Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
- Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
- Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
- Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
- Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
- Conclusion
Q1 2023 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1 | |||||||
Quarters | Number of Sales | % change in Sales | Median Sale Price | % change in Median Sale Price | Median Sp/Sqft | % change in Median Sp/Sqft | Median of DOM |
Q1 2023 | 103 | 14.4% | $1,600,000 | 17.2% | $896 | 6.9% | 62 |
Q4 2022 | 90 | $1,365,000 | $838 | 57 |
Q1 2023 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1.1 | |||||||
Quarters | Number of Sales | % change in Sales | Median Sale Price | % change in Median Sale Price | Median Sp/Sqft | % change in Median Sp/Sqft | Median of DOM |
Q1 2023 | 103 | -51.9% | $1,600,000 | 10.0% | $896 | 12.1% | 62 |
Q1 2022 | 214 | $1,455,000 | $799 | 75 |
Q1 2023 - Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Trends: Sales Down YoY
Q1 2023 Sales down -51.9% year-over-year — Highest in a 1st quarter (2021 and earlier) — 12-month sales trendline negative
As predicted in our Q4 2022 Luxury Housing Report for Greater Downtown Miami, the luxury condo market bounced back from its holiday slump during the first quarter of 2023. Consistent with the pace of the overall Miami market, Greater Downtown Miami reported the following Sales Statistics for Q1 2023:
- Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022. Sales declined 51.9% year-over-year, down from 214 in Q1 last year to 103 sales for the same quarter of 2023. (Fig.1.1)
- What’s worth noting is that Q1 2022 was an above-average quarter, reporting the highest sales in a first quarter, ever. So, even as volumes may have dropped year-over-year, the market remained healthy, considering Q1 2023 volumes were higher compared to any first quarter noted in 2021 or before.
- Q1 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales improved 14.4% quarter-over-quarter, up from 90 in Q4 2022 to 103 sales in Q1 this year. (Fig. 1)
- Brickell was the highest contributor in terms of volume (60 sales), while Downtown Miami emerged as the most resilient market in the Greater Downtown area by posting a 47% decline in year-over-year sales.
Looking into the Monthly Sales trends of Fig. 2.2 for Greater Downtown Miami:
- January 2023 closed with 20 sales as compared to 52 sales for the same month of 2022.
- February closed with 31 sales versus 68 in the same month of 2022.
- March closed with 52 sales, down from the previous year’s 94 sales for the same month.
- Expectedly, Q1 2023 sales picked up towards the tail-end of the quarter, as spring ushered in the positive winds of high season.
The Sales Trendline of Fig. 1.4 kept its negative curve from Q3 2022 through to Q1 2023, as the second half of 2022 reported a significant slowdown compared to the record-setting highs experienced during the first half of the year.
Even though a negative trendline would suggest that the upcoming quarter would be slow; we, as real estate experts, expect the market to accelerate further, considering the second quarter of the year is historically known to be the strongest in Miami, and represents the peak of high season for our seasonal real estate market.
Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 2.1
Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Mar. 2023 - Fig. 2.2
Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3
Q1 2023 - Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot at Highest-ever
Q1 2023 Price per Square Foot up 12.1% to peak of $896 — Median Price also up year-over-year
Closing the quarter with the highest Price per Square Foot ever for luxury condos in Greater Downtown Miami (Fig. 3), Q1 2023 reported a peak price of $896/square foot in this urban core. Keeping with the positive price trends noted in the overall Miami market, the key price statistics for Greater Downtown Miami in Q1 2023 were:
- Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022. Price per Square Foot increased 12.1% year-over-year, up from $799 in Q1 2022 to $896 for the same quarter of 2023 (Fig. 1.1).
- Q1 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per Square Foot increased by 6.9%, up from $838 in Q4 2022 to $896 in Q1 2023 (Fig. 1).
- A look at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 3), shows that the Price per Square Foot hit an all-time high in Q1 2023 – reporting that sellers received excellent value for their luxury condo investments in this mainland grouping.
- Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022. Median Sales Price increased by 10%, up from $1,455,000 in Q1 last year to $1,600,000 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 1.1).
Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 3
Q1 2023 - Days on Market Down YoY at One of Lowest for Greater Downtown Miami
Days on Market down 17.3% year-over-year. Consistent with the overall market trend of a decline in year-over-year numbers but an increase in quarter-over-quarter values, Greater Downtown Miami reported the following Days on Market statistics:
- In Q1 2023, luxury condos spent 5 days longer on the market compared to the previous quarter.
- On a year-over-year basis, luxury condos spent 13 fewer days on market (DOM) compared to Q1 2022, reducing by 17.3% year-over-year.
- At 62 days, luxury properties continued selling at a remarkable pace, indicating buyer-seller communication was again at its best in this mainland grouping.
Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2023 – Fig. 4
Q1 2023 - Condo Inventory Up YoY in Greater Downtown Miami
Q1 2023 closed with 18 months of inventory. As expected, inventory rose and fell over the first quarter of 2023, much like the overall market trend, as sellers emerged in anticipation of high season and buyers flocked back to the market after the holidays.
- On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory was up 5.9% from 17 months in December 2022.
- On a year-over-year basis, inventory increased by 125% from 8 months in March 2022 - one of its lowest points in Greater Downtown.
- A closer look at Fig. 5 below reveals that inventory increased to 20 months by February 2023, as sellers rushed to list before high season (typically spring). On the other hand, it dropped down two points in March as buyer demand started catching up.
Considering a balanced market should only hold 9 to 12 months of inventory - at 18 months, the statistic indicates a buyer’s market, on paper at least. We, as real estate experts, expect inventory levels to normalize over the next quarter as we move through the peak of high season in Q2 – bringing the market to balance and presenting a leveled playing field for both buyers and sellers.
Buyers looking to live closer to work in Brickell or the urban core of Miami can search the Greater Downtown Miami area for available condos for sale, here.
Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Mar. 2023 - Fig. 5
A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.
Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Edgewater Market Trends (33132 and 33137)
Q1 2023 Edgewater Luxury Condo Market Summary – Fig. 6 | |||||||
Quarters | Number of Sales | % change in Sales | Median Sale Price | % change in Median Sale Price | Median Sp/Sqft | % change in Median Sp/Sqft | Median of DOM |
Q1 2023 | 26 | 0.0% | $1,776,380 | 17.6% | $979 | 3.9% | 61 |
Q4 2022 | 26 | $1,510,000 | $942 | 65 |
Q1 2023 Edgewater Luxury Condo Market Summary – Fig. 6.1 | |||||||
Quarters | Number of Sales | % change in Sales | Median Sale Price | % change in Median Sale Price | Median Sp/Sqft | % change in Median Sp/Sqft | Median of DOM |
Q1 2023 | 26 | -52.7% | $1,776,380 | 9.0% | $979 | 18.2% | 61 |
Q1 2022 | 55 | $1,630,000 | $829 | 71 |
Q1 2023 - Edgewater Luxury Condo Sales Down YoY
Q1 2023 Sales down 52.7% year-over-year – But highest in a 1st quarter (2021 and prior years) – 12-month sales trendline negative
Consistent with the overall Miami market trend, Edgewater reported a decline in year-over-year sales volume, but with the following positive statistics:
- Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022. Sales declined 52.7% year-over-year, down from 55 in Q1 2022 to 26 sales for the same quarter of 2023. (Fig. 6.1)
- Highest first-quarter sales noted in a comparable quarter from 2021 or before, which is a positive considering Q1 2022 was a record-setting quarter. (Fig. 7.1)
- Q1 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales volume stayed flat quarter-over-quarter, reporting the same 26 sales between Q4 2022 and Q1 this year. (Fig. 6)
Owing to a significantly slower-paced second half in 2022, compared to an above-average first half, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 7.2 expectedly retained its negative curve from Q3 2022 through to Q1 2023.
Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 7.1
Edgewater Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 7.2
Q1 2023 - Edgewater Price per Square Foot Trends: Most Expensive in Greater Downtown, Leads Price Growth
Q1 2023 Price per Square Foot up 18.2% to peak of $979 — Median Price also up year-over-year
Closing the first quarter with its highest-ever Price per Square Foot (Fig. 3), Edgewater reported a peak price of $979/square foot for its luxury condos. Keeping with the positive price trends noted in the overall Miami market, the key price statistics for Edgewater in Q1 2023 were:
- Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022. Price per Square Foot increased 18.2% year-over-year, up from $829 in Q1 last year to $979 in Q1 this year (Fig. 6.1).
- Q1 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per Square Foot increased by 3.9%, up from $942 in the previous quarter to $979 in Q1 2023 (Fig. 6).
- With its Price per Square Foot at $979, Edgewater continued to be the most expensive neighborhood of Greater Downtown.
- Edgewater again led price growth trends in Greater Downtown, reporting the highest percentage growth (18.2%) in year-over-year price per sq. ft. this first quarter.
- A look at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 8), reveals that Price per Square Foot peaked to at an all-time high in this bayfront neighborhood in Q1 2023 – showing that sellers received top value for their luxury condo investments.
- Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022. Median Sales Price increased 9%, up from $1,630,000 in Q1 of the previous year to $1,776,380 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 6.1) - the highest sales price of all Greater Downtown neighborhoods under review.
Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 8
Q1 2023 - Edgewater Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY - One of Fastest-selling in Miami
Days on Market down 14% year-over-year. Deviating partly from the overall market trend of a decline in year-over-year numbers but increase in quarter-over-quarter values, Edgewater reported the following Days on Market statistics:
- In Q1 2023, luxury condos spent 4 fewer days on the market compared to the previous quarter.
- On a year-over-year basis, luxury condos spent 10 fewer days on market (DOM) compared to Q1 2022, down by 14% year-over-year.
- At 61 days, Edgewater tied with Brickell as one of the fastest-selling markets in Miami for Q1 2023.
Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2023 – Fig. 9
Q1 2023 - Edgewater Inventory Up YoY
Q1 2023 closed with 14 months of inventory. Following the overall market trend, inventory increased and fell over the first quarter of 2023 to offer buyers and sellers a leveled playing field in Edgewater:
- On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory was down 17.6% from 17 months in December 2022.
- On a year-over-year basis, inventory increased by 75% from 8 months in March 2022.
- At 14 months, inventory inched closer to the 9-12-month range of a balanced market, indicating that a buyer-seller equilibrium could be achieved sooner in this bayfront neighborhood.
As a top seller’s brokerage and agent in Edgewater, we can provide a free evaluation of your luxury condo and position it to attract the best offers. You can call, chat, or e-mail us and an expert, local real estate agent will help you.
Edgewater Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Mar. 2023 - Fig. 10
A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.
Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Brickell Market Trends (33129, 33130 and 33131)
Q1 2023 vs Q4 2022 Luxury Condo Quarterly Market Summary | |||||||
Quarters | Number of Sales | % change in Sales | Median Sale Price | % change in Median Sale Price | Median Sp/Sqft | % change in Median Sp/Sqft | Median of DOM |
Q1 2023 | 60 | 13.2% | $1,510,000 | 9.4% | $860 | 4.7% | 61 |
Q4 2022 | 53 | $1,380,000 | $821 | 50 |
Q1 2023 Brickell Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 11.1 | |||||||
Quarters | Number of Sales | % change in Sales | Median Sale Price | % change in Median Sale Price | Median Sp/Sqft | % change in Median Sp/Sqft | Median of DOM |
Q1 2023 | 60 | -52.8% | $1,510,000 | 4.1% | $860 | 7.1% | 61 |
Q1 2022 | 127 | $1,450,000 | $802 | 73 |
Q1 2023 - Brickell Luxury Condo Sales Down YoY
Q1 2023 Sales down -52.8% year-over-year — Highest in a 1st quarter (2021 and prior) — 12-month sales trendline negative
Keeping with the overall Miami market trend for luxury condos, Brickell reported a decline in year-over-year sales volume, but along with the following positive statistics:
- Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022. Sales dipped 52.8% year-over-year, down from 127 in Q1 last year to 60 sales for the same quarter of 2023. (Fig. 11.1)
- First-quarter volume was at highest compared to the same quarter of 2021 or before (Fig. 12.1) – indicating that the market may have fell short compared to an above-average first quarter in 2022, but it still held to its growth threshold garnered over the past two years.
- Brickell again reported the highest sales volume of all the Greater Downtown Miami neighborhoods under review.
- Q1 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales improved 13.2% year-over-year, up from 53 in the previous quarter to 60 sales in Q1 2023. (Fig. 11)
Expectedly, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 12.2 kept its negative trajectory for the second consecutive quarter - from Q3 2022 through to Q1 2023.
Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 12.1
Brickell Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2
Q1 2023 - Brickell Price per Square Foot Up to Peak
Q1 2023 Price per Square Foot up 7.1% to peak of $860 — Median Price also up year-over-year
With the quarter closing at $860, Brickell reported its highest-ever Price per Square Foot in Q1 2023. Consistent with the positive price trends noted in the overall Miami market, the key price statistics for Brickell were:
- Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022. Price per Square Foot increased 7.1% year-over-year, up from $802 in Q1 2022 to $860 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 11.1).
- Q1 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per Square Foot increased 4.7%, up from $821 in the previous quarter to $860 in Q1 2023 (Fig. 11).
- A look at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 13), reveals that the Price per Square Foot in Brickell peaked to a record-high – indicating sellers continued receiving the best value-to-date for their luxury condos in this financial district.
- Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022. Median Sales Price increased by 4.1%, up from $1,450,000 in Q1 2022 to $1,510,000 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 11.1).
Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 13
Q1 2023 - Brickell Days on Market Up QoQ, But Down YoY - One of Fastest-selling in Miami
Days on Market down 16% year-over-year. Keeping with the overall market trend of declining year-over-year values but increase in quarter-over-quarter numbers, Brickell reported the following Days on Market statistics:
- In Q1 2023, luxury condos spent 11 extra days on the market compared to the previous quarter.
- On a year-over-year basis, luxury condos spent 12 fewer days on market (DOM) compared to Q1 2022, down by 16% year-over-year.
- At 61 days, Brickell tied with Edgewater, becoming one of the fastest-selling markets of Q1 2023 in not just Greater Downtown but all of Miami.
Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2023 - Fig. 14
Q1 2023 - Brickell Inventory Up YoY
Q1 2023 closed with 17 months of inventory. In line with the overall market trend, inventory increased and ebbed over the first quarter to offer buyers and sellers equal opportunity in Miami’s financial hub:
- On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory was up 13.3% from 15 months in December 2022.
- On a year-over-year basis, inventory increased by 142.8% from 7 months in March 2022.
- At 17 months, inventory moved closer to the 9-12-month range of a balanced market, after peaking in February to 20 months, indicating that a buyer-seller equilibrium is likely to be achieved during the next quarter or so in Brickell.
Brickell Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Mar. 2023 - Fig. 15
A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.
Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Downtown Miami Market Trends (33128, 33132 and 33136)
Q1 2023 Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 15 | |||||||
Quarters | Number of Sales | % change in Sales | Median Sale Price | % change in Median Sale Price | Median Sp/Sqft | % change in Median Sp/Sqft | Median of DOM |
Q1 2023 | 17 | 54.5% | $1,300,000 | 12.1% | $776 | 4.3% | 63 |
Q4 2022 | 11 | $1,160,000 | $744 | 66 |
Q1 2023 Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 15.1 | |||||||
Quarters | Number of Sales | % change in Sales | Median Sale Price | % change in Median Sale Price | Median Sp/Sqft | % change in Median Sp/Sqft | Median of DOM |
Q1 2023 | 17 | -46.9% | $1,300,000 | -2.3% | $776 | 8.4% | 63 |
Q1 2022 | 32 | $1,330,000 | $716 | 90 |
Q1 2023 - Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Sales Down YoY - Most Resilient Market in Greater Downtown
Q1 2023 Sales down 46.9% year-over-year — Highest in a quarter (Q4 2020 and earlier) — 12-month sales trendline negative
Consistent with the overall Miami market trend, Downtown Miami too reported a decline in year-over-year stats, but with the following positives:
- Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022. Sales declined 46.9% year-over-year, down from 32 in Q1 last year to 17 sales for the same quarter in 2023. (Fig. 15.1)
- Luxury condo sales outperformed previous quarters noted from Q4 2020 and before – a nod to market health even as volumes dipped year-over-year. (Fig. 16.1)
- Downtown Miami turned out to be the most resilient market in Greater Downtown by reporting the least negative impact on year-over-year sales of all three neighborhoods under review.
- Q1 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales jumped 54.5% quarter-over-quarter, up from 11 in the previous quarter to 17 sales in Q1 2023. (Fig. 15)
Owing to an exceptional first half in 2022, followed by sales dropping significantly over the latter half, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 16.2 expectedly maintained its negative curve from Q3 2022 through to Q1 2023.
Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 16.1
Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 16.2
Q1 2023 - Downtown Miami Prices Up YoY - Most Affordable in Miami Overall
Q1 2023 Price per Square Foot up 8.4% to $776 — Median Price flat year-over-year
Deviating partly from the positive price trends noted in the overall Miami market, the key price statistics for Downtown Miami in Q1 2023 were:
- Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022. Price per Square Foot increased 8.4% year-over-year, up from $716 in Q1 last year to $776 in the comparable quarter of 2023 (Fig. 15.1).
- Q1 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per Square Foot increased 4.3%, up from $744 in the previous quarter to $776 in Q1 2023 (Fig. 15).
- Closing the quarter at $776/sq. ft. Downtown offered buyers the most affordable entry point into Miami’s luxury condo market in Q1 2023.
- A look at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 17), reveals that Downtown prices closed in the mid-ranges - giving sellers fair value for their luxury condo investments.
- Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022. Median Sales Price stayed mostly flat, adjusting only -2.3%, down from $1,330,000 in Q1 2022 to $1,300,000 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 15.1).
Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 17
Q1 2023 - Downtown Miami Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY
Days on Market down 30% year-over-year. Partly deviating from the overall market trend of a decline in year-over-year numbers but increase in quarter-over-quarter values, Downtown Miami reported the following Days on Market statistics:
- In Q1 2023, luxury condos spent 3 fewer days on the market compared to the previous quarter.
- On a year-over-year basis, luxury condos spent 27 fewer days on market (DOM) compared to Q1 2022, down by 30% year-over-year.
- This shows that buyer-seller expectations were on par in this urban core.
Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2023 - Fig. 18
Q1 2023 - Downtown Miami Inventory Up YoY to Highest in Miami
Q1 2023 closed with 27 months of inventory. Tightly in step with the overall market trend, inventory stayed flat quarter-over-quarter, but increased year-over-year in Downtown Miami as follows:
- On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory hovered at 27 months comparing March 2023 to December 2022.
- On a year-over-year basis, inventory increased 93% from 14 months in March 2022.
- At 27 months, inventory closed above the 9-12-month range of a balanced market, giving buyers the advantage of choice in this sub-market until levels normalize over the next few cycles.
Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Mar. 2023 - Fig. 19
A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.
Q1 2023 Greater Downtown Miami Market Conclusion
As predicted in our Q4 2022 luxury housing stats for Greater Downtown Miami, Greater Downtown kicked off the year on a strong note. Rebounding from a sluggish holiday season, first quarter sales were higher than those from comparable quarters in pre-pandemic years (2021 and earlier). Much like the overall Miami market stats – Greater Downtown too reported an improvement in quarter-over-quarter sales – showing signs of a robust second quarter (historically Miami’s peak season for real estate).
Downtown Miami emerged as the most popular neighborhood in the Greater Downtown area, reporting the lowest percentage loss in year-over-year sales (-47%).
Echoing the positive price trends noted in the overall market summary for Q1 2023, prices were higher across the board in Greater Downtown. Sellers in Edgewater continued receiving maximum value for their investments, as luxury condos in the area fetched top-dollar - closing Q1 at a peak price of $979/square foot as well as reported the highest year-over-year price gains of 18%.
In sync with the overall market trend, the Days on Market declined year-over-year for luxury condos across Greater Downtown. Brickell and Edgewater emerged as the fastest-selling markets in Miami overall, with properties spending only 2 months (61 days) on the market before closing as sold.
Again, in step with the overall Miami market trend of higher year-over-year inventory, the statistic was up across the board in Greater Downtown. At 18 months, this core grouping leaned towards becoming a balanced market, much like the overall Miami market trend.
Considering the second quarter of the year is generally the strongest (as per historical data), we, as luxury real estate experts, expect the following factors to influence the direction of the market heading into 2023:
- A second wave of business migration accelerating demand from high-net-worth buyers, wealthy families, and deep-pocketed digital nomads.
- Normalizing interest rates empowering more buyers and sellers to get off the sidelines and participate in Miami’s growth story.
- Foreign nationals, motivated by strong political winds back home, flocking back to Miami regardless of currency levels and stock market graphs.
- More branded additions to our luxury condo landscape, such as the Edition in Edgewater, Cipriani in Brickell, or NoMad in Wynwood, attracting an elite set of global clientele.
- Inventory levels expected to correct, as limited number of pre-construction condos scheduled for immediate delivery (2-3 years) – nudging the market towards a balanced position.
Q1-23 Trends | Overall Miami | GDM | Edgewater | Brickell | Downtown |
Sales | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down |
Sales Trendline | Negative | Negative | Negative | Negative | Negative |
Price/Sq. Ft. | Up | Up | Up | Up | Up |
Days on Market | Down | Down | Down | Down | Down |
Inventory | Up | Up | Up | Up | Up |
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