What’s Miami’s luxury real estate market been up to? Well, with an expected slowdown after a high-paced second quarter, Miami’s luxury housing market downshifted into a softer cycle in Q3 2024. 

While there was a decline in sales volume, prices increased and the average number of days on the market remained consistent year-over-year. This indicates that Miami's luxury condo market remained steady even as it has transitioned into a buyer's market with moderate surplus of luxury inventory. But another trend has emerged, and that is the Miami market has established a new definition of luxury.  

This third quarter, the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove & Coral Gables, continued outperforming all other neighborhoods in our quarterly analysis by reporting the highest percentage sales growth, fastest time to sell/lowest days on market, and lowest levels of inventory. 

As we head into the 4th quarter, which is historically known to be the slowest of the year, and with the upcoming presidential elections contributing to buyer hesitancy, we will closely monitor the market for any signs of anything beyond a minor correction – although the chances of this happening are highly unlikely. 

The take-away? One of the most commonly asked questions by the media, out-of-town buyers, and investors these days is: Will Miami’s luxury housing market crash in 2025? Based on our data analysis for Q3 2024 and the general market trends, we can confidently say that there are no indications of a 2008-like market crash. 

However, we have always anticipated a slight correction whenever the dust from the pandemic-driven boom would settle. Having said that, considering the luxury housing market’s expansion over the past five years, continued pricing growth, supported by positive business and wealth migration trends, it is highly unlikely that the market would experience a crash or rebound to pre-pandemic sales or price levels. The market is slower but holds a steady pace, showing promise for long-term investments. 

What is very clear is that “a luxury property” is today’s market is no longer achievable at the $1 million price. Moving into 2025, we will likely be adjusting our reports to account for more and more properties selling in the $3 million to $5 million ranges, as well as $5 million - $8 million and so on.

— Q3 2024: Key Miami Real Estate Market Stats & Trends 

• Q3 2024 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market – Closed Sales: 310
  • Year-over-Year Change in Closed Sales: -15.1% (310 vs 365 sales in Q3 2023)
  • Quarter-over-quarter Change in Closed Sales: -33% (310 vs 463 sales in Q2 2024)
• Q3 2024 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market – Median Sales Price: $1.74M
  • Change in Median Sales Price: +6.9% ($1.74M in Q3 2024 vs $1.63M in Q3 2023)
• Q3 2024 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market – Inventory: 17 months 

Is Miami a seller’s or buyer’s market? Miami's luxury condo market transitioned into a buyer's market in Q3 2024, as inventory levels consistently exceeded the ideal 9-12-month range for the last four quarters. Based on our experience as luxury real estate veterans who have been monitoring Miami's housing trends for years, we anticipate that inventory will continue to increase during the last quarter of 2024, which is a typical trend for this time of year—keeping the market buyer-friendly well into the first quarter of 2025.

What opportunities does this shift in trends bring for buyers and sellers? If you’re a Miami luxury condo buyer, this favorable transition means you can look forward to having a wider range of condo choices available within your preferred price bracket and, more importantly, enjoy better negotiation power.

For sellers, this shift means you will need to be flexible with pricing or other terms that matter most to buyers. Considering that prices continue to increase, you may not experience the same degree of price appreciation as seen in the past 3-4 years, but is still possible to strike a good deal by embracing flexibility and asking your real estate agent for recommendations on how to best navigate current market conditions.

If you’re considering selling your Miami condo, call, chat, or email us for a market evaluation. We’ll also happily share some of our tried-and-tested pro tips that have helped countless sellers like you close with gains even in the most challenging buyer’s market cycles. 

Q3 2024 MIAMI LUXURY CONDO QUARTERLY MARKET SUMMARY

Read on for a closer look into a neighborhood-wise breakdown of our findings for Q3 2024:

For the purpose of this Miami luxury condo market report, we've only included properties priced $1 million and above. The neighborhoods included in this market summary include Downtown Miami, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District, Brickell, Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, Miami Beach, Fisher Island, Surfside and Bal Harbour, and Sunny Isles Beach. 

— Q3 2024 – Miami Luxury Condo Market Sales 

Overall Sales down -15.1% from Q3 2023

With 310 sales, Q3 2024 volumes were 15.1% lower than the previous year’s 365 sales. Comparing quarter-to-quarter, sales expectedly dropped 33% from 463 in Q2 2024 to 310 in Q3 2024.

As mentioned in our luxury housing market report for Q2 2024, the third quarter typically marks the beginning of a seasonal slowdown in Miami’s luxury housing market. However, current data shows signs of a correction beyond yearly expectations. Thus, we will carefully observe the market for any additional shifts leading up to next year's high season, especially after the presidential election results are announced and mortgage rates begin to stabilize.

For now, as luxury housing experts, we anticipate that Miami’s luxury condo market will continue to soften during the final quarter of 2024, as it typically does each year. However, we also expect the market to maintain stability within its expanded scope and recently established parameters.

Q3 2024 Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales at a Glance

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.

Looking at a broader, neighborhood-wise sales comparison for Q3 2024 (above), the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove & Coral Gables remained the strongest market in Miami for a fifth consecutive quarter, reporting a 14% increase in year-over-year sales when most other markets reported a decline.

A micro-analysis of Miami’s sub-markets, including districts such as Edgewater, South Beach, Sunny Isles Beach, etc., further revealed that Coconut Grove & Coral Gables emerged as buyer favorites in Q3 2024—leading market growth with the highest percentage increase in year-over-year sales (56 in Q3 2024 vs. 49 in Q3 2023). 

On the other hand, the luxury condo market in Downtown Miami reported maximum seasonal impact with a 56% drop in year-over-year sales (12 in Q3 2024 vs. 27 in Q3 2023).

Brickell – Miami’s financial district, also known as the Manhattan of the South – reported the maximum sales volume of all neighborhoods under our review, closing Q3 2024 with an exceptional 72 sales.

Despite declining momentum, the 12-month sales trendline for the overall market stayed positive between Q2 2024 and Q3 2024. South Beach, Surfside and Bal Harbour (combined), Sunny Isles Beach, and Downtown Miami were the only neighborhoods to deviate from this trend and report a negative 12-month trendline.

— Q3 2024 – Miami Luxury Condo Market Prices

Price/SF up 3.9% year-over-year to $970/SF

Even with the market tipping in favor of buyers, sellers continued receiving great value for their luxury condo investments in Miami. Closing Q3 2024 at a median Price of $970 per Square Foot, the statistic reported a 3.9% increase in year-over-year value. The majority of the Miami neighborhoods under our review contributed to this statistic by either reporting gains or a flat price year-over-year.

Luxury condos in Downtown Miami delivered maximum gains to sellers, closing Q3 2024 with the highest percentage increase in year-over-year Price per Square Foot. Prices in this sub-market increased from $719 in Q3 2023 to $862 in Q3 2024, reporting a 20% increase in year-over-year values. It is further worth noting that prices in Greater Downtown Miami (collectively) peaked at an all-time high of $944/SF in Q3 2024 versus $860/SF for the same quarter last year.

Subscribe to this blog to receive our upcoming individual market reports analyzing Miami’s three major markets – Miami Beach, Greater Downtown Miami, plus Coconut Grove and Coral Gables. And follow us on Instagram for more up-to-date details and insights.

As always, Fisher Island held onto its crown as the most expensive zip code for luxury condos in Miami and South Florida, recording a median price of $2,119 per square foot. On the other hand, Downtown Miami continued offering the most affordable entry-point into Miami’s luxury condo market in Q3 2024, reporting a median price of $862 per square foot. 

Q3 2024 Price per Square Foot at a Glance 

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.

— Q3 2024 – Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market

Days on Market flat year-over-year – Luxury condos took 74 days to sell 

Even as sales activity slowed compared to a year ago, luxury condos sold at a flat pace year-over-year (74 days in Q3 2024 versus 75 days in Q3 2023) – confirming that Miami’s luxury condo market remained in healthy territory. Most Miami neighborhoods in our third-quarter analysis reported a decline in the number of days luxury condos took to be sold.

Taking only 31 days to sell, the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove and Coral Gables continued to be the fastest-selling market this third quarter. On the other hand, Mid-North Beach reported the highest days on market in Q3 2024, as properties took 117 days to sell on average. 

Q3 2024 Days on Market at a Glance

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island. 

— Q3 2024 – Miami Luxury Condo Market Inventory 

Overall Inventory Up to 17 months

As detailed in our Q2 2024 luxury condo market report, inventory gradually increased over the course of the third quarter in response to an expected slowdown. At 17 months, the statistic trended above the 9-12-month range of a balanced market – concluding Q3 2024 as a buyer’s market.

In Q3 2024, inventory recorded a 17.6% increase from 14 months in June 2024 and September 2023. Compared to all the other neighborhoods under our review, the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove and Coral Gables continued as the most dynamic market with the lowest months of inventory (12 months). Brickell followed closely with 14 months of inventory.

Looking ahead, as luxury condo market experts, we expect inventory to continue trending above the balanced range of 9-12 months through the first quarter of 2025.

Q3 2024 Inventory at a Glance 

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.

— Q3 2024 Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Market Summary

With the market cooling after a robust high season and leading to an expected increase in inventory, Miami’s luxury condo market transitioned from a soft buyer’s market in Q2 2024 to a solid buyer’s market in Q3 2024.

What’s further worth noting is that although sales declined compared to the previous year and quarter, prices remained unaffected. Instead, the Price per Square Foot for luxury condos reported a 3.9% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the average number of days condos spent on the market remained the same as the previous year, showing that Miami’s luxury housing market is still stable with no indications of an impending crash.

— Miami Luxury Housing Market Predictions – 2024

With the upcoming quarter poised for a slower pace, as real estate market experts, we expect the following factors to continue driving Miami’s luxury condo market for the remainder of 2024:

• With the latest Knight Frank report ranking Miami with the likes of Dubai as a global leader of the super prime home sales market, we expect consistent attention from the global elite to continue an interest in luxury condo sales here.
• What is considered a “luxury condo” has become more expensive as the market has shifted. You will need to spend more money to get more luxurious residences, as we more and more properties cross into the $5 million and higher pricing bands. With some newer product easily fetching $10 million and higher prices.
• Ultra luxury preconstructions projects will start to capture a slightly bigger piece of the luxury buyer pie, especially as some of these projects begin construction and buyers can more easily visualize a residence. 
• Considering Miami has become a top destination for individuals with a net worth of $100M+, all thanks to our tax-friendly policies, beautiful beaches, active lifestyle, and diverse culture, we anticipate that our luxury condo market will remain a prime choice for trophy second homes and lucrative vacation rentals among such affluent buyers.
• Owing to the “Citadel effect” kicked off by the $38 billion hedge fund relocating from Chicago to Miami, we expect our growing economy to continue drawing in wealthy buyers and their top talent.
• As the uncertainty of the presidential elections reduces, mortgage rates stabilize, and the reality of condo association fees and special assessments becomes clearer to the general public, we expect more buyers to enter the market with confidence by the first quarter of 2025.

To stay tuned for our exclusive, in-depth analysis of the Q3 2024 luxury condo market in Miami, subscribe to this blog as we will soon be rolling out separate reports for the overall Miami market, Miami Beach, Greater Downtown Miami, and Coconut Grove plus Coral Gables (collectively).

If you have specific questions about this data, or want a market assessment of your property, please reach out to us directly or via our social media @blackbookproperties.