Q4 2021 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Report - Edgewater Leads Miami Growth

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Edgewater and Brickell continued being the most popular neighborhoods in all of Miami, leading sales growth in Q4 2021 and on an annual basis, even trumping the beaches. Posting triple digit growth well into the end of the year, the
Greater Downtown Miami area remained the neighborhood of choice for buyers throughout 2021.

While prices mostly showed mixed trends, Greater Downtown Miami and its sub-markets closed the year on a high note, showing that favorable market winds and the delivery of new, more luxurious condos in the next 2-3 years could set the pricing bar higher in terms of median pricing in the area. As expected of this record-breaking year, both the Days on Market values and Months of Inventory declined in Greater Downtown Miami and its sub-markets. 

While the urban core is an out-and-out seller's market, one neighborhood toed the line to favoring buyers this last quarter – read below to find out which one.

A quick summary of Q4 2021 for the Greater Downtown Miami area includes:

  • Brickell had the most sales volume (87 sales)
  • Edgewater had the greatest sales growth YoY (350%)
  • Downtown Miami posted the highest median sales price ($1.7 million)
  • Brickell posted the highest price per square foot ($778)

Read further for our exclusive and in-depth analysis on how Greater Downtown, Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown Miami performed over Q4 2021, along with a detailed comparison to the annual trends of 2020 + overall Miami luxury condo trends in terms of sales, prices, days on market, and inventory. 

For this report, we've only included areas with zipcodes 33129, 33130, 33131, 33132, 33137 – essentially Brickell Hammock, Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Arts & Entertainment District, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District. This luxury condo market report only features properties priced $1 million and above, and generally does not include pre-construction condo sales.


Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2021 YoY (Number of Sales)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2021 YoY (Number of Sales)


Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2021 YoY (Median Sales Price)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2021 YoY (Median Sales Price)


Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2021 YoY (Median SP/SqFt)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2021 YoY (Median SP/SqFt)


2021 Annual Greater Downtown Miami + Sub-Neighborhood Luxury Condo Market Highlights

  • Annual Sales up 376.9% against 2020 + highest total sales in > 6 years
  • Winners: Edgewater (545%) and Brickell (395%) top popularity charts - lead annual sales growth in Greater Downtown as well as Miami overall
  • Annual Price per Square Foot up to $743 in YoY analysis
  • Winner: Brickell leads price growth in Greater Downtown with highest percentage increase in Price per Square Foot – offering maximum value to sellers
  • Winner: Brickell was the most expensive neighborhood of 2021 with a median price of $749/sq. ft.
  • Annual Days on Market down 33.8% in 2021-over-2020 analysis
  • 2021 closed as seller's market

Q4 2021 - Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Highlights

  • Sales up 254.1% year-over-year, highest for a 4th quarter
  • 12-month sales trendline up for fifth consecutive quarter
  • At $764, Price per Square Foot up to highest in over 5 years
  • Days on Market down 40.5% year-over-year
  • Inventory down to 11 months

Q4 2021 - Greater Downtown Miami Sub-neighborhood Highlights

  • Winners: Edgewater (350%) and Brickell (314%) top popularity charts again, lead quarterly sales growth in Greater Downtown and Miami overall
  • 12-month sales trendline positive across the board, except Downtown Miami
  • Winner: Brickell posts highest percentage growth in year-over-year price per sq. ft. (26%) in Greater Downtown
  • Winner: Brickell was the most expensive neighborhood of Q4 2021 with a median price of $778/sq. ft.
  • Brickell posted the biggest percentage decline (43%) in Days on Market in Greater Downtown
  • Brickell reported the lowest year-end inventory (9 months) in Greater Downtown


Table of Contents

  1. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
  2. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends
  3. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
  4. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
  5. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
  6. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
  7. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
  8. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
  9. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
  10. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
  11. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
  12. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
  13. Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
  14. Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
  15. Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
  16. Downtown Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
  17. Conclusion 

Q4-2021 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q4-2021

131

254.1%

$1,400,000

0.7%

$764

16.4%

66

Q4-2020

37

$1,390,000

$656

111



Annual 2021-over-2020 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1.1

Year

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

2021

515

376.9%

$1,372,969

-9.4%

$743

11.0%

88

2020

108

$1,515,000

$669

133


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Trends: Annual + 4Q Sales Up


Q4 Sales up 254.1% year-over-year, Highest-ever in a 4th quarter

Echoing and contributing to the soaring sales trend seen in the overall Miami report for Q4 2021, this mainland grouping posted its highest sales volume in a fourth-quarter in over 6 years of our reporting (Fig. 2.1). Sales in Q4 2021 were more than 3 times those reported in the same quarter of 2020 or even 2019 (pre-pandemic).

  • Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020. Sales increased 254.1% year-over-year, up from 37 in Q4 2020 to 131 for the same quarter 2021. (Fig. 1)
  • Brickell was the highest contributor in terms of volume (87 sales), while Edgewater was the highest percentage contributor (350% YoY) to this incredible sales growth seen in the Greater Downtown area.
  • Even with a seasonal slowdown setting in (sales are known to be cyclical in Miami – peaking around Q2 and slowing down during Q3 & Q4), the year closed on a record-setting note.


Annual Sales up 376.9%, Highest in over 6 years and Positive trendline

As expected of a record-breaking year, 2021 closed with the highest annual sales seen in more than 6 years of us covering the luxury condo market in Miami. The total sales in 2021 (515 annual sales) were an astounding 376.9% higher than those of 2020 (108 annual sales). They were also significantly higher than any other previous year under our review (Fig. 2.1) – showing exceptional progress even when compared to a pre-pandemic market.

Owing to insatiable buyer demand, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 2.3 maintained its upward trajectory for a fifth consecutive quarter in Greater Downtown Miami - keeping its positive curve from Q4 2020 through to Q4 2021.


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 2.1

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 2.1


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Dec 2021 - Fig. 2.2

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Dec 2021 - Fig. 2.2


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends: Mixed


Annual $/Square Foot up to $743, Median Sales Price down

Deviating from the overall market trend of higher year-over-year prices, luxury condos in Greater Downtown Miami reported mixed trends:

  • Price per Square Foot increased 11%, up from $669 in 2020 to $743 in 2021.
  • Median Sales Price declined -9.4%, down from $1,515,000 in 2020 to $1,372,969 in 2021.

This difference in Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price annual trends could possibly be due to sales of smaller luxury condos (in size) exceeding sales of bigger units. Such smaller condos may pack in more amenities, for which they command a higher price per square foot even as the median price declines.


Q4 2021 Price/Square Foot up 16.4% to peak at $764, Median Sales Price flat year-over-year

Almost in line with the overall market trend of higher year-over-year prices in Q4, this mainland grouping reported a higher Price per Square Foot but flat Median Price year-over-year. Still closing the year with the highest Price per Square Foot in over 5 years (Fig. 3), sellers received excellent value for their luxury condos in Greater Downtown Miami.

  • Price per Square Foot increased by 16.4%, up from $656 in Q4 2020 to $764 in Q4 2021.
  • Median Sales Price stayed flat, only 0.7% higher from $1,390,000 in Q4 2020 to $1,400,000 in the same quarter 2021.


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2021 - Fig. 3

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2021 - Fig. 3


Greater Downtown Miami: Days on Market Down Annually + YoY 


Days on Market down 33.8% on annual basis and 40.5% 4Q21-over-4Q20

Owing to intense market momentum, the Days on Market (DOM) reduced in line with expectations as well as the overall Miami luxury condo market trend:

  • 2021 vs 2020. Days on Market declined 33.8%, with luxury condos spending 45 fewer days on the market compared to 2020. (Fig. 1.1)
  • Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020. DOM also declined 40.5%, indicating luxury condos spent 45 fewer days on market compared to Q4 2020 - closing Q4 2021 with the lowest DOM in 4 years (Fig. 4).


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2021 – Fig. 4

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2021 – Fig. 4


Greater Downtown Miami: Luxury Condo Inventory Down - Seller's Market Sustains


Q4 2021 closes with 11 months of Inventory

With domestic and international buyers pushing sales to new highs, luxury condo inventory in the Greater Downtown Miami area ended 2021 at its lowest we've seen in over 6 years. At 11 months, inventory was within the 9-12 months range of a balanced market, offering sellers a great advantage over buyers.

On an annual basis, inventory dropped from 49 months in December 2020 to 11 months year-closing 2021 – a dip of 77.5%. Compared to 62 months in December 2019 (pre-pandemic levels), inventory plunged an incredible 82.3% (Fig. 5). This major shift helped a seller's market find its footing in the Greater Downtown Miami area – the last of all Miami districts under our review to turn into a sellers' market.

On a monthly basis, inventory increased marginally from 10 months in September 2021 to 11 months in December – reporting an uptick of 10% (see Fig. 5). This marginal increase was quite expected as momentum took a cyclical break from its summer peak in Q2 2021.

Those interested in buying into Miami's urban core can search the Greater Downtown Miami area for available condos for sale.


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2021 - Fig. 5

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2021 - Fig. 5


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Edgewater Market Trends (33132 and 33137)

Q4 2021 Edgewater Luxury Condo Market Summary – Fig. 6

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q4-2021

36

350.0%

$1,285,000

-15.7%

$735

-8.5%

90

Q4-2020

8

$1,525,000

$803

126



2021-over-2020 Edgewater Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 6.1

Year

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

2021

129

545.0%

$1,326,000

-6.9%

$736

4.8%

105

2020

20

$1,425,000

$702

104


Edgewater Luxury Condo Sales Up – Lead Annual & 4Q Sales Growth in Miami Overall


Q4 Sales up 350% year-over-year - highest percentage growth in Miami overall

Leading the sales growth trend in overall Miami, Edgewater posted the highest year-over-year percentage gain of all the Miami neighborhoods under our review.

  • Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020. Sales increased 350% year-over-year, up from 8 sales in Q4 2020 to 36 for the same quarter 2021. (Fig. 6)
  • Even as the luxury condo market slowed down for the winter (as it usually does in Miami), Edgewater posted its highest fourth quarter sales in over 6 years (Fig. 7.1), more than 4 times those in Q4 2020 or 2019 (pre-pandemic).


Annual Sales up 545% - Highest percentage growth in Miami overall - positive trendline

Having led market growth for most of the year, Edgewater expectedly posted the highest percentage growth of all Miami neighborhoods in a 2021-over-2020 analysis.

  • 2021 vs 2020. Sales increased 545%, up from a total of 20 in 2020 to a whopping 129 annual sales in 2021. (Fig. 6.1)
  • These are also the highest annual sales recorded for Edgewater in more than 6 years of our reporting.

With buyer demand going through the roof, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 7.2 kept its positive trajectory for a fifth consecutive quarter – straight from Q4 2020 through to Q4 2021.


Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 7.1

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 7.1


Edgewater Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales Trendline - Fig. 7.2

Edgewater Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales Trendline - Fig. 7.2


Edgewater Luxury Condo Price Trends: Mixed Annually + Down YoY in 4Q 2021


Annual $/Square Foot up to $736, Median Sales Price down

Partly in line with the overall market trend of higher year-over-year prices (annual basis), luxury condos in Edgewater reported mixed trends (Fig. 6.1):

  • Price per Square Foot increased 4.8%, up from $702 in 2020 to $736 in 2021.
  • Median Sales Price decreased -6.9%, down from $1,425,000 in 2020 to $1,326,000 in 2021.

This difference in Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price annual trends could possibly be because sales of smaller, amenity-rich luxury condos overshadowed those of bigger units, commanding a higher price per square foot even as the median price declined.


Q4 2021 $/Square Foot down -8.5% to $735, Median Sales Price also down year-over-year

Contrary to the overall Miami market trend of higher year-over-year prices in Q4, Edgewater reported a lower year-over-year Price per Square Foot and Median Price. Still closing the year in the higher ranges (Fig. 8), sellers received fair value for their luxury condos in Edgewater.

  • Price per Square Foot declined -8.5%, down from $803 in Q4 2020 to $735 in Q4 2021.
  • Median Sales Price also dipped -15.7%, down from $1,525,000 in Q4 2020 to $1,285,000 in the same quarter 2021.


Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2021 - Fig. 8

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2021 - Fig. 8


Edgewater Days on Market Trends: Flat Annually + Down YoY in 4Q 2021


Days on Market flat on annual basis and down -29% 4Q21-over-4Q20

Mostly in line with the overall Miami luxury condo market trend of lower Days on Market, the DOM in Edgewater declined year-over-year in Q4 2021, but stayed flat annually:

  • 2021 vs 2020. Days on Market flat, as luxury condos spent only 1 extra day on market compared to 2020. (Fig. 6.1)
  • Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020. Days on Market decreased 28.6%, showing luxury condos spent 36 fewer days on market compared to Q4 2020 (Fig. 9).


Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 9

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 9


Edgewater Luxury Condo Inventory: Down to Lowest, but Still Second-Highest in Miami


Q4 closes with 12 months of Inventory

Mostly in line with the overall market trend in Miami, luxury condo inventory in Edgewater declined year-over-year but stayed flat quarter-over-quarter (as opposed to increasing over the last quarter, as seen in overall Miami).

On a year-over-year basis, inventory dropped from 85 months in December 2020 to 12 months year-end 2021 – a remarkable decline of 85.9%. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, inventory stayed flat at 12 months between September and December 2021. With levels within the 9-12 months range of a balanced market, sellers sustained the upper hand in negotiations in Edgewater.


As a top seller's brokerage and agent in Edgewater, we can provide a free evaluation of your luxury condo and position it to attract competitive offers. You can call, chat, or e-mail us and an expert, local real estate agent will help you.



Edgewater Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2021 - Fig. 10

Edgewater Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2021 - Fig. 10


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Brickell Market Trends (33129, 33130 and 33131)

Q4 2021 Brickell Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 11

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q4-2021

87

314.3%

$1,510,000

18.9%

$778

26.0%

60

Q4-2020

21

$1,270,000

$618

105



2021-over-2020 Brickell Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 11.1

Year

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

2021

312

395.2%

$1,417,500

-5.5%

$749

12.4%

83

2020

63

$1,500,000

$667

135


Brickell Luxury Condo Sales Up – Second-highest Annual & 4Q Sales Growth in Miami Overall


Q4 Sales up 314.3% year-over-year – highest-ever in a 4th quarter

Trailing right behind Edgewater in terms of sales growth, Brickell posted the second-highest year-over-year percentage gain of all Miami neighborhoods under our review.

  • Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020. Sales increased 314.3% year-over-year, up from 21 in Q4 2020 to a remarkable 87 sales in Q4 2021. (Fig. 11)
  • Even though the luxury condo market dialed down during Q4 (as it usually does in Miami), Brickell still reported its highest fourth quarter sales in over 6 years (Fig. 12.1), more than 4 times those in Q4 2019 (pre-pandemic market).


Annual Sales up 395.2% - highest-ever in 6 years - positive trendline

Reporting a trailblazing year in terms of sales growth, Brickell recorded its highest annual sales in over 6 years – echoing the overall market trend in Miami.

  • 2021 vs 2020. Sales increased 395.2 %, up from a total of 63 in 2020 to almost five times at 312 annual sales in 2021. (Fig. 11.1)
  • Brickell also reported the second-highest percentage sales growth of all the Miami neighborhoods under our review.

With sales growing at a dramatic pace, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 12.2 expectedly kept its upward trajectory for a fifth consecutive quarter – staying positive from Q4 2020 through to Q4 2021.


Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 12.1

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 12.1


Brickell Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2

Brickell Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2


Brickell Luxury Condo Price Trends: Mixed Annually + Up YoY in 4Q 2021


Annual Price/Square Foot up to $749, Median Sales Price down

Deviating partly from the overall market trend of higher year-over-year prices (annual basis), luxury condos in Brickell too reported mixed trends (Fig. 11.1):

  • Price per Square Foot increased 12.4%, up from $667 in 2020 to $749 in 2021.
  • Median Sales Price decreased -5.5%, down from $1,500,000 in 2020 to $1,417,500 in 2021.

This inconsistency in Price per Square Foot and Sales Price trends could possibly be due to more sales of smaller (in size) condos with better amenities that tend to command a higher price per square foot.


Q4 2021 Price/Square Foot up 26% to peak of $778, Median Sales Price also up year-over-year

Following the overall Miami market trend of higher year-over-year prices, Brickell too reported an increase in its Price per Square Foot and Median Price. Closing the year with the highest price per square foot reported in over 6 years (Fig. 13), sellers received excellent value for their luxury condos in this financial district.

  • Price per Square Foot increased 26%, up from $618 in Q4 2020 to $778 in Q4 2021.
  • Median Sales Price also increased by 18.9%, up from $1,270,000 in Q4 2020 to $1,510,000 in the same quarter 2021.


Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2021 - Fig. 13

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2021 - Fig. 13


Brickell Days on Market: Down Annually + YoY


Days on Market down 39% on annual basis and 43% 4Q21-over-4Q20

Showing an improvement in buyer-seller dialogue, the Days on Market (DOM) reduced in line with the overall Miami market trend in Brickell:

  • 2021 vs 2020. DOM declined 39%, as luxury condos spent 52 fewer days on market compared to 2020. (Fig. 11.1)
  • Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020. Days on Market dropped 43%, showing luxury condos spent 45 fewer days on market compared to Q4 2020 (Fig. 14).


Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2021 - Fig. 14

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2021 - Fig. 14


Brickell Inventory Down to All-time Low


Q4 closes with 9 months of Inventory

Partly in line with the overall market trend in Miami, luxury condo inventory in Brickell declined both quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year (as opposed to increasing over the last quarter in overall Miami).

On a year-over-year basis, inventory dropped from 51 months in December 2020 to 9 months year-end 2021 – an incredible decline of 82.4%. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory decreased from 10 months in September 2021 to 9 months at year-end – a decline of 10%. With levels within the 9-12 months range of a balanced market, the sellers' market retained its stronghold in Brickell, as buyers were seen putting in multiple, highly competitive offers (mostly above asking price) on luxury condos in the financial district.


Brickell Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2021 - Fig. 15

Brickell Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2021 - Fig. 15


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Downtown Miami Market Trends (33128, 33132 and 33136)

Q4 2021 Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 15

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q4-2021

8

0.0%

$1,650,000

-13.2%

$698

7.0%

105

Q4-2020

8

$1,900,000

$652

114



Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary

Year

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

2021

74

196.0%

$1,512,500

-34.2%

$663

1.6%

134

2020

25

$2,300,000

$652

93



Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Sales Up Annually + Flat in 4Q 2021


Q4 Sales flat year-over-year

Deviating from the overall market trend of higher year-over-year sales, Downtown Miami reported the same volume as Q4 previous year:

  • Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020. Sales stayed flat year-over-year, with momentum lowering to match the (8) sales of Q4 2020. (Fig. 15)


Annual Sales up 196% - highest annual sales in 6 years - negative trendline

Owing to a record-breaking pace from Q1 to Q3 2021, Downtown Miami closed with its highest annual sales reported in over 6 years.

  • 2021 vs 2020. Sales increased 196%, up from a total of 25 in 2020 to 74 annual sales in 2021. (Fig. 15.1)

Even with exceptional sales performance through the first three quarters, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 16.2 lowered down to a negative curve owing to a significantly slower last quarter in Downtown Miami.


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 16.1

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 16.1


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 16.2

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 16.2


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends: Mixed


Annual Price/Square Foot flat at $663, Median Sales Price down

Deviating from the overall market trend of higher year-over-year prices (annual basis), luxury condos in Edgewater reported mixed price trends (Fig. 15.1):

  • Price per Square Foot was mostly flat, with a marginal increase of 1.6%, slightly up from $652 in 2020 to $663 in 2021.
  • Median Sales Price declined -34.2%, down from $2,300,000 in 2020 to $1,512,500 in 2021.

As mentioned above in this report, this inconsistency in Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price trends could be as sales of smaller, amenity-rich luxury condos (in size), commanding a higher price per square foot dominated the year.


Q4 2021 Price/Square Foot up 7% to $698, Median Sales Price down year-over-year

Partly in line with the overall Miami market trend of higher year-over-year prices in Q4, Downtown Miami reported a higher year-over-year Price per Square Foot but lower Median Price. Closing in the mid ranges (Fig. 17), sellers received good value for their luxury condos in Downtown Miami.

  • Price per Square Foot increased 7%, up from $652 in Q4 2020 to $698 in Q4 2021.
  • Median Sales Price declined -13.2%, down from $1,900,000 in Q4 2020 to $1,650,000 in the same quarter 2021.


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2021 - Fig. 17

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2021 - Fig. 17


Downtown Miami Days on Market: Up Annually, but Down YoY in 4Q 2021


Days on Market up 44.1% on annual basis, but down -8% 4Q21-over-4Q20

Deviating from the overall market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos spent higher days on market in a 2021-over-2020 annual review:

  • 2021 vs 2020. DOM increased 39%, as luxury condos spent 41 extra days on market compared to 2020. (Fig. 15.1)
  • Q4 2021 vs Q4 2020. Days on Market declined -8%, showing luxury condos spent 9 fewer days on market compared to Q4 2020 (Fig. 18).


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2021 - Fig. 18

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2021 - Fig. 18


Downtown Miami Inventory: Down YoY - Still Highest in Miami Overall


Q4 closes with 15 months of Inventory

Following the overall market trend in Miami, luxury condo inventory in Downtown Miami declined year-over-year but increased quarter-over-quarter. On a year-over-year basis, inventory declined from 48 months in December 2020 to 15 months year-end 2021 – a drop of 68.8%. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased from 10 months in September 2021 to 15 months year-end – an uptick of 50%.

With levels slightly out of range of the ideal 9-12 months of a balanced market, Downtown Miami has turned into a slightly favorable market for buyers. However, considering it will soon fall into line with the rest of the market in Miami that has sellers in control, buyers would have to put in their offers now to make the most of this interim shift.


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2021 - Fig. 19

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2021 - Fig. 19


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Q4 2021 Greater Downtown Miami Market Conclusion

As expected of a record-setting year, numbers in Greater Downtown Miami and its sub-neighborhoods closed on an exceptionally strong note – in sync with the overall annual and year-end sales trends in Miami. Edgewater and Brickell sustained their positions as the most popular neighborhoods in the Greater Downtown area as well as Miami overall – posting record-high sales growth in 4Q21-over-4Q20 and 2021-over-2020 analysis.

Much like the overall market, owing to heightened demand from domestic and international buyers wanting to live closer to work in Brickell or the just in the urban core, the 12-month sales trendline stayed positive across the board, except in Downtown Miami. This central business district reported a slower 4th quarter (compared to the rest of the year), resulting in a negative trendline.

Like the overall market trend for Q4 2021, the Price per Square Foot in Greater Downtown Miami and its sub-neighborhoods closed with a year-over-year increase. Only Edgewater reported a decline in its year-over-year Price per Square Foot for the fourth quarter, perhaps owing to sellers trying to price their luxury condos more attractively. Luxury condos in Brickell were found to offer the best value to sellers out of all 3 sub-markets in Greater Downtown Miami – posting the highest percentage increase in year-over-year Price per Square Foot.

The Days on Market declined across the board in tune with the feverish pitch of the market – just like the overall market trend in Miami. As expected, inventory also was down across the board like the overall market in Miami. However, Downtown Miami closed with 15 months of inventory, temporarily turning this sub-market highly favorable for buyers in an otherwise seller-friendly market.

Even with sales catching their breath in the last quarter of the year, the Greater Downtown Miami market did exceptionally well with signs of an equally strong start to 2022. As real estate experts, we further expect the following to influence market trends in the first half of 2022:

  • South Florida's pro-business and no-income-tax policies will continue attracting businesses and the wealthy to settle in and around Brickell a.k.a. the Wall Street of the South.
  • The flexibility afforded by widely accepted remote work policies will nudge more individuals to close on their home on the beach or by a tropical grove.
  • As South Florida continues to offer a safe haven for investments, we expect more South American and European buyers to turn their attention towards Miami to find their next luxurious vacation home or investment condo allowing rentals.
  • Even with developers on the fast-track to bring brand-new, luxury condo pre-constructions to life, we expect market inventory to stay low for the time being as these new products complete construction.


4Q-21 Metrics

Overall Miami

GDM

Edgewater

Brickell

Downtown

Sales

Up

Up

Up

Up

Flat

Sales Trendline

Flat-Positive

Positive

Positive

Positive

Negative

Price/Sq. Ft.

Up

Up

Down

Up

Up

Days on Market

Down

Down

Down

Down

Down

Inventory

Down

Down

Down

Down

Down



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