Q1 2024 Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary: Is Robust Start a New Normal?

Q1 2024 Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary: Is Robust Start a New Normal?

Apr 24, 2024 April 24, 2024

As predicted, Miami’s luxury housing market is off to a robust start. Q1 2024 numbers reveal that our luxury condo market is performing well, despite the challenges faced by the national housing market. Any claims that predicted a complete market reset post-pandemic have been silenced, too, as sales continue to outpace pre-pandemic levels, prices are at an all-time high, and properties are being sold within two to three months of being listed.

With high season kicking in at the end of the first quarter and the strongest quarter of the year around the corner (historically Q2), we are excited to see how market enthusiasm unfolds in 2024. As luxury real estate experts, we forecast a moderate increase in prices as a widening demographic of buyers seeks luxury and ultra-luxury condo options along our sunny shores, resulting in sustainable growth.

The take-away? Overall, Miami’s luxury condo market shows signs of a new normal and of great health and stability. With steady sales, prices peaking to new highs, and the days on market statistic indicating relatively quick closings, as real estate experts, we recommend buyers and sellers take advantage of this promising market that has been bucking (adverse) national housing trends since 2021.

Key Statistics for Q1 2024

  • Q1 2024 Overall Miami luxury condo market closed sales: 349
    • Year-over-year change in closed sales: -7.9% (349 vs 379 sales in Q1 2023)
    • Quarter-over-quarter change in closed sales: +19.9% (349 vs 291 sales in Q4 2023)
  • Q1 2024 Overall Miami luxury condo market median sales price: $1.9M
    • Change in median sales price: +5.6% (Q1 2023 vs Q1 2023)
  • Q1 2024 Overall Miami luxury condo market inventory: 20 months

Is This a Seller’s or Buyer’s Market?

Although current inventory levels (20 months) suggest that we are headed towards a buyer’s market, for now, it is in equilibrium. Even as new construction condos are expected to boost inventory, the demand from high-income households moving to Miami and spring delivering its usual surge in sales will likely prevent inventory levels from reaching pre-pandemic highs. We are simply not in that market anymore. This means that even though the market will have more inventory than it ideally should, it will provide a more level playing field to buyers and sellers during negotiations.

Read on for a closer look into a neighborhood-wise breakdown of our findings for Q1 2024.


— Q1 2024 Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Market Summary

 

Number of  Sales

% change  in Sales

Median  Sale Price

% change  in Median  Sale Price

Median  SP/SqFt

% change  in Median  SP/SqFt

Median  Days On Market

Q1 2024

349

-7.9%

$1,900,000

5.6%

$990

2.7%

79

Q1 2023

379

$1,800,000

$964

76


For this Miami luxury condo market report, we've only included properties priced at $1 million and above. The neighborhoods included are Downtown Miami, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District, Brickell, Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, Miami Beach, Fisher Island, Surfside and Bal Harbour, and Sunny Isles Beach.


— Q1 2024 Miami Luxury Condo Market Sales 


Overall sales are down 7.9% from Q1 2023, still exceed pre-pandemic levels

With 349 sales, Q1 2024 volumes reported a 7.9% decline compared to the previous year’s 379 sales. While this would generally indicate a slowdown, a comparative analysis with pre-pandemic numbers shows that Miami’s luxury condo market experienced a paradigm shift during the pandemic (2020-2021) and is now in a period of stability.

Q1 2024 sales numbers are also significantly higher than the first-quarter range reported prior to the pandemic (averaging between 140 to 200 sales), even though they are much lower than 2021’s supercharged market (478 sales in Q1). This confirms a significant shift in market demand and the emergence of a new normal in terms of sales parameters.

Comparing quarter-to-quarter, we further see that sales increased 19.9% from 291 in Q4 2023 to 349 in Q1 2024. This shows that the market rebounded in line with historical patterns—as it is expected to do every year after a slower winter in Miami’s seasonal market. This again indicates a robust market and sustainable growth in this new normal.


Q1 2024 Neighborhood Sales at a Glance

Neighborhood

Q1 2024

Q1 2023

% Change

Greater Downtown Miami*

90

106

-15.1%

Miami Beach**

209

230

-9.1%

Coconut Grove & Coral Gables

50

43

+16.3%

 *Greater Downtown Miami includes Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown
**Miami Beach includes South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.


Looking at a broader, neighborhood-wise sales comparison for Q1 2024 (above), the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove & Coral Gables continued its resurgence as the strongest and most popular market for a third consecutive quarter, reporting a 16.3% uptick in year-over-year sales. On the other hand, the Greater Downtown area showed maximum impact with a 15.1% drop in year-over-year sales, however it had been leading in sales for the second half of 2023.
 

Sunny Isles Beach, again, reported the maximum sales volume of all neighborhoods under our review, closing the first quarter with 80 sales. 

Considering the market was still, expectedly, recovering from a slower-paced Q3 and Q4 in 2023, the 12-month sales trendline for the overall market kept its negative trajectory between Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (combined), Fisher Island, and Mid-North Beach were the only neighborhoods in our analysis to break away from this trend and report a positive 12-month trendline.

Although a negative trendline would generally indicate a softer next quarter, as Miami’s luxury housing experts, we anticipate a strong second quarter, considering we will be at the peak of high season—Miami’s luxury condo market is known to be cyclical, alternating between high and low seasons every year.


— Q1 2024 – Miami Luxury Condo Market Prices


Q1 2024 Price/Square Foot peaked to highest-ever at $990/sq. ft.

Closing Q1 2024 with the highest average price per square foot to date, Miami’s luxury condo market continued providing sellers with top-dollar for their properties. Overall, prices increased by 2.7% year-over-year. The majority of the Miami neighborhoods under our analysis also reported significant gains in year-over-year prices.

Luxury condos in South Beach delivered maximum gains to sellers, closing Q1 2024 with the highest percentage increase in year-over-year price per square foot. Prices in this sub-market increased from $1,225 in Q1 2023 to $1,397 in Q1 2024, posting a 14% uptick in year-over-year values.

Fisher Island continued as the most expensive zip code for luxury condos in Miami with a median price of $1,839 per square foot. On the other hand, Downtown maintained its title as Miami’s most affordable neighborhood for luxury condos in Q1 2024, reporting a median price of $790 per square foot.


Q1 2024 Price per Square Foot at a Glance
 

Neighborhood

Q1 2024

Q1 2023

% Change

Greater Downtown Miami*

$881

$891

-1.1%

Miami Beach**

$1,197

$1,108

+8.1%

Coconut Grove & Coral Gables

$851

$743

+14.6%

 *Greater Downtown Miami includes Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown
**Miami Beach includes South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.


— Q1 2024 – Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market


Q1 2024 Days on Market is up 3.9% from Q1 2023 – Luxury condos took 79 days to sell

Even with robust demand and great momentum, luxury condos sold just a tad bit slower compared to a year ago (79 days in Q1 2024 vs. 76 days in Q1 2023), spending three extra days on the market, on average. The majority of the Miami neighborhoods under our analysis, too, reported an increase in the number of days luxury condos spent on the market before they were sold.

Taking only 64 days to sell, the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove and Coral Gables continued to be the fastest-selling market this quarter, followed closely by Downtown Miami (65 days). On the other hand, Mid-North Beach reported the highest days on market in Q1 2024, with properties taking 96 days to sell on average.


Q1 2024 Miami Neighborhood Days on Market at a Glance

Neighborhood

Q1 2024

Q1 2023

% Change

Greater Downtown Miami*

78

61

+27.9%

Miami Beach**

83

83

Flat

Coconut Grove & Coral Gables

64

84

-20%

 *Greater Downtown Miami includes Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown
**Miami Beach includes South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island. 


— Q1 2024 – Miami Luxury Condo Market Inventory 


Overall inventory is up to 20 months

As predicted in our Q4 2023 luxury housing report, inventory increased during the first quarter of 2024, with more people listing in anticipation of the high season. With an increase to 20 months from 16 months last March and 18 months in December 2023, inventory closed above the 9-12-month range of a balanced market. 

Of all the neighborhoods under review, the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove and Coral Gables continued reporting the lowest months of inventory (9 months). 

At 20 months, the overall statistic indicates we are inching towards a buyer’s market. However, with prices peaking to new highs and our day-to-day observations indicating steady demand from a broader demographic, we recommend reading it as a balanced market with equal value for buyers and sellers. 

Looking ahead, as luxury real estate experts, we expect inventory to remain above the ideal range of a balanced market throughout 2024, but unlikely to rebound to the levels noted pre-pandemic (typically 36 to 55 months). 

Additionally, we expect the upcoming high season in Q2 to keep inventory in check even as some highly anticipated projects such as the Aston Martin Residences, Five Park, and other new towers are delivered this year, boosting inventory. It also should be noted that for Downtown, there have been new condo tower deliveries over the last two quarters that are boosting inventory levels. 


Q1 2024 Inventory at a Glance

Neighborhood

Q1 2024

Q1 2023

% Change

Greater Downtown Miami*

24

17

+41.2%

Miami Beach**

20

17

+17.7%

Coconut Grove & Coral Gables

9

10

-10% 

*Greater Downtown Miami includes Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown
**Miami Beach includes South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.


— Q1 2024 Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Market Summary

As detailed in our Q4 2023 summary report, Miami’s luxury condo market is in one of its most favorable and steady cycles in recent history. While sales activity has expectedly slowed down from 2021's breakneck pace, the market has transitioned into an era of stability with predictable growth.

All market indicators read positive in our healthy market. Sales, although slower, paced up toward quarter-end in response to the commencement of high season (spring). Prices recorded an all-time high with moderate gains. Luxury condos sold at an average of 79 days. And inventory, though higher than in previous years, kept lower than pre-pandemic levels (generally 36-55 months), indicating a relatively balanced market, where buyers and sellers benefit from a leveled playing field.


— Miami Luxury Housing Market Predictions for 2024

With spring kicking off high season and clear indications of positive growth in 2024 (as discussed above), as real estate experts, we further expect the following factors to influence our luxury housing market:

  • We expect a broader demographic of buyers, now inclusive of wealthy out-of-towners demanding larger condos with a minimum of three-bedrooms, well-compensated millennial remote workers, deep-pocketed tech workers buying all-cash, and foreign investors to continue powering luxury condo sales in upcoming quarters.
  • We expect Miami’s luxury housing sector to remain in the spotlight as the continued inflow of businesses and elite decision-makers, such as Jeff Bezos, highlights Miami as a sophisticated, corporate destination.
  • We expect our growing economy to continue drawing domestic as well as foreign buyer interest, especially as Miami gears up to welcome FIFA headquarters ahead of the 2026 World Cup and grabs international headlines for trade and wealth management.
  • We expect to attract more of the world’s 22% ultra-high-net-worth individuals predicted to buy a home in 2024, as Miami’s prime real estate is anticipated to offer a 4% increase in prices (according to Knight Frank’s latest wealth report), in addition to our unbeatable package of sun, sand, and investment-ready luxury.
  • We expect inventory levels to hover above their ideal range throughout 2024 as bullish developers continue to announce and deliver a highly anticipated batch of new construction condos and sales move at a relatively moderate pace compared to 2020 and 2021’s frenzied market.
  • On the other hand, we expect sticky mortgage rates and the initial shock of association fee price hikes as some of the few aspects that could dampen luxury condo sales in 2024.

To stay tuned for more information regarding Miami real estate, all about pre-construction properties and buying or selling a Miami condo, subscribe to this blog in the top right corner.

And if you have specific questions about this data, or want a market assessment of your property, please reach out to us directly or via our social media @blackbookproperties.


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