Emerging as the luxury condo market to watch in Miami, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove (collectively) recorded top numbers in our Q4 and annual analysis for 2023. This grouping took the lead in several key statistics: leading sales growth and offering sellers maximum value for their luxury condos on an annual basis, emerging as the fastest-selling market in Miami overall, and reporting the lowest inventory levels in all of Miami.

Pairing these statistics with our day-to-day interactions, as luxury real estate experts, we expect Coral Gables & Coconut Grove to continue growing at an accelerated pace in the new year. As of year-end 2023, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove closed as a balanced market, bringing equal value and opportunity to buyers and sellers.

Read below for more details on how this pairing of Miami neighborhoods performed in the last quarter of the year and in 2023 as a whole in terms of sales, prices, days on market, and inventory in our exclusive, full-length report for luxury condos in Coral Gables & Coconut Grove.

For this Miami submarket report, we've only included properties priced at $1 million and above.

Annual Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Highlights:

• Annual sales are down 15.1% from 2022, but higher than in pre-pandemic years.
• Annual price per square foot is up 10.7% year-over-year, leading price gains in Miami with the highest percentage increase in the 2023-over-2022 analysis.
• Annual price per square foot is up to $840/sq. ft., one of the lowest entry points for buyers into Miami's luxury condo market, behind Downtown Miami ($737/sq. ft.).
• Annual Days on Market (DOM) is up 41.5% to 58 days in the 2023-over-2022 analysis. But still the fastest-selling market in Miami overall.
• Lowest year-end inventory of all Miami neighborhoods (nine months).
• Coral Gables & Coconut Grove (collectively) closed 2023 as a balanced market.

Q4 2023 – Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Highlights:

• Sales are up 27.8% year-over-year, higher than Q4 2021 and earlier.
• It's the most popular market in Miami leading sales growth for Q4 2023 with the highest percentage increase in year-over-year volume.
• The 12-month trendline maintained its positive curve from Q2 to Q4 2023.
• Price per square foot is up 11.5% year-over-year to $801/sq. ft.
• Median sales price is flat year-over-year at $1.6M.
• Days on Market (DOM) is down 45% year-over-year, making it the fastest-selling market of Q4 2023 in Miami overall.
• Inventory is down 25% year-over-year to nine months, which makes it the lowest of all Miami neighborhoods under review.

Table of Contents

1. Annual and Q4 2023 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Sales Trends: Most Resilient Market in Miami
2. Annual and Q4 2023 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Price Trends: Led Annual % Gains in Miami Overall
3. Annual and Q4 2023 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Days on Market: Fastest-Selling Market in Miami
4. Annual and Q4 2023 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Inventory: Lowest in Miami – Balanced Market
5. Annual and Q4 2023 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Conclusion

1. Annual and Q4 2023 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Sales Trends: Most Resilient Market in Miami

Q4 2023 Sales up 27.8% year-over-year — Higher than Q4 2021 and previous quarters

With a 27.8% increase in sales, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove (collectively) again outpaced both the Greater Downtown (-8.8%) and Miami Beach (0.6%) groupings in terms of year-over-year growth, emerging as Miami's strongest market in Q4 2023.

Deviating slightly from the overall Miami market trend of flat year-over-year sales, this pairing of historic neighborhoods reported the following sales statistics for Q4 2023:

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales increased 27.8% year-over-year, up from 36 in Q4 last year to 46 in Q4 this year. (Fig.1.1)
• What's worth noting is that Q4 2023 volumes were higher than any previous quarter noted in Q1 2021 and earlier – also making it the second-best fourth quarter on record. This shows how this relatively modest luxury condo market (compared to Miami Beach or Greater Downtown) has expanded in scale over the past few years, demonstrating great potential for further growth. (Fig. 2.2)
• Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Sales declined (seasonally) 6.1% quarter-over-quarter, down from 49 in the previous quarter to 46 sales in Q4 2023. (Fig. 1)

Looking into the monthly sales statistics of Fig. 2.1 for Coral Gables & Coconut Grove reveals that sales volumes were consistently higher compared to a year ago:

• October 2023 closed with 12 sales versus 10 sales in the same month last year.
• November closed with 18 luxury condo sales, up from 13 in the same month of 2022.
• December closed with 16 sales, up from 13 in the same month a year ago.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2023 - Fig. 2.1

Annual Sales down 15.1% – Positive Trendline

Owing to strong sales in every quarter, this pair of historic neighborhoods closed 2023 on a high note. With a minimal drop in sales compared to all other Miami neighborhoods in our annual review, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove emerged as the most resilient market of 2023 with the following annual sales statistics:

• 2023 vs 2022. Sales decreased 15.1%, down from 219 total sales in 2022 to 186 in 2023. (Fig. 1a)
• What's worth noting is that annual sales in 2023 were significantly higher than in 2019 (89 total sales), 2018 (101 total sales), and earlier – showing an exceptional growth rate compared to the pre-pandemic market dynamic.

Even with the market cooling over the early winter and holidays (as it does every year in Miami's seasonal luxury condo market), the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 2.3 maintained its positive curve from Q2 through to Q4 2023. Coral Gables & Coconut Grove (collectively) also emerged as the only neighborhood in Miami to report a positive trendline in Q4 2023. 

Pairing this with our day-to-day interactions, as luxury condo experts, we expect this previously modest market to expand positively in the new year, with steady buyer demand keeping inventory in check and the market balanced throughout 2024.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 2.2

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

2. Annual and Q4 2023 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Price Trends: Led Annual % Gains in Miami Overall

Annual Price/sq. ft. at an all-time high of $840 – Median price up

Mostly in line with the overall market trend of slight variations in year-over-year price per square foot and median price, luxury condos in the Coral Gables & Coconut Grove grouping continued reporting strong returns with the following annual price stats (Fig. 1a):

• 2023 vs 2022. Price per square foot increased 10.7% year-over-year, up from $758 in 2022 to $840 in 2023.
• Median sales price increased 2.9%, up from $1,700,000 in 2022 to $1,750,000 in 2023.
• Closing at an all-time high of $840/sq. ft., sellers in this historically significant pairing continued receiving top-dollar for their properties throughout 2023.
• With the highest percentage gain in annual price per square foot (10.7%), this dynamic pairing led to price growth trends in Miami in 2023.

Q4 2023 Price per sq. ft. slightly up – Median price flat year-over-year

Partly in line with the overall Miami market trend of small variations of year-over-year price per square foot and median price, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove (collectively) reported the following positive price stats in Q4 2023:

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per square foot increased 11.5%, up from $719 in Q4 last year to $801 for the comparable quarter of 2023 (Fig. 1.1).
• Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Price per square foot declined 10.8%, down from $898 in the previous quarter to $801 in Q4 (Fig. 1).
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Median sales price stayed mostly flat, adjusting marginally by -0.5% year-over-year, slightly down from $1,650,000 in Q4 last year to $1,642,500 in Q4 2023 (Fig. 1.1).
• A look at the 5-year snapshot of quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 3), shows that the price per square foot again closed in one of its highest ranges in Q4 2023 – confirming great value for sellers in this fast-paced market.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 3

3. Annual and Q4 2023 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Days on Market: Fastest-Selling Market in Miami

Days on the market are up 41.5% on an annual basis, down 45% 4Q23-over-4Q22

Echoing the overall Miami market trend for days on market (DOM), luxury condos in Coral Gables & Coconut Grove sold more slowly than in 2022 but moved off the market faster year-over-year in Q4 2023:

• 2023 vs 2022. Luxury condos spent 17 more days on the market compared to 2022, a 41.5% increase. (Fig. 1a)
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Luxury condos spent 33 fewer days on the market compared to Q4 2022, an impressive 45% decline. (Fig. 1.1)
• Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Luxury condos spent 22 fewer days on the market than in Q3 2023, a 34.9% drop in quarter-over-quarter DOM. (Fig. 1)
• With luxury condos taking only about 1.5 months to sell (41 days in Q4 2023 and 58 days on average in 2023), Coral Gables & Coconut Grove (collectively) established itself as the fastest-selling market in Miami, outpacing all other neighborhoods in our quarterly and annual review.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2023 – Fig. 4

4. Annual and Q4 2023 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Inventory: Lowest in Miami – Balanced Market

Q4 2023 closed with nine months of Inventory

Partly following the overall Miami trend of an increase in year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter inventory, luxury condos in Coral Gables & Coconut Grove reported the following stats:

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory stayed flat at nine months, the same as in September 2023. (Fig. 5)
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory was down from 12 months in December 2022 to nine months by year-end, reporting a 25% decrease.
• At nine months, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove (collectively) continued reporting the lowest levels of inventory of all Miami neighborhoods under review, as it did in Q2 and Q3 2023.

Closing the year with nine months of inventory, levels stayed within the 9-12-month range of an ideal market – indicating a balanced market. As luxury housing experts, we expect inventory levels to stay relatively the same in the new year for this dynamic pairing, considering there will be more listings during the high season in spring (as noted from historical trends), but only a handful of luxury condo projects are scheduled for completion in 2024 in this area.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2023 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last six months.

5. Annual and Q4 2023 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Conclusion

As predicted, this pairing of lush tropical neighborhoods closed 2023 on a high note and as a balanced market. Even when momentum was expected to pace down over winter (typical for Miami's seasonal market) this dynamic pairing reported a 27.8% increase in year-over-year sales, which not only led sales growth in Miami for Q4 2023 but also recorded its second-best fourth-quarter volume to date (only behind the epic highs of Q4 2021).

On an annual basis, too, this dynamic market delivered by reporting the lowest negative impact on 2023-over-2022 sales compared to all other Miami neighborhoods under review. With only a 15% drop in annual sales, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove (collectively) established itself as the most resilient market of 2023 in Miami.

With its 12-month sales trendline keeping positive from Q2 2023 to Q4 2023, this pairing also emerged as the only market to report a positive curve of all the Miami neighborhoods in our quarterly review, a nod to its advancing growth story.

In terms of pricing, Coconut Grove and Coral Gables led price-per-square-foot gains in 2023, reporting the highest percentage growth of all Miami neighborhoods under our watch. With year-over-year price per square foot closing at an above-average $801/sq. ft. in Q4 2023 and the average price per square foot for 2023 peaking to an all-time high of $840/sq. ft., sellers received the best value for their luxury condos in Coral Gables & Coconut Grove. Although, it's worth noting that this combined neighborhood remains one of the most affordable entry points into Miami's luxury condo market, just behind Downtown Miami ($762/sq. ft.), making it a highly lucrative investment opportunity.

Overall, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove remained the fastest-selling market in Miami, both in our annual and 4Q23-over-4Q22 analysis. On average, luxury condos took only about 1.5 months to sell in this sought-after luxury housing market. As a result, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove, again, reported one of the lowest levels of inventory in all of Miami.

Heading into 2024, as real estate experts, we're expecting the following factors to influence market trends in this collective neighborhood:

• With Miami hitting the international spotlight for banking, trade, and wealth management over the last three years along with a rising number of tech startups and companies like Amazon looking to open up offices in the city, we expect our booming economy to continue fueling demand for luxury housing.
• Following the trend set by the likes of Jeff Bezos and Lionel Messi, we expect more high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth individuals to be drawn to our evolving landscape, especially as more high-luxe branded new construction condo towers offering world-class amenities are completed in 2024.
• With Miami becoming a prominent tax saver's paradise with substantial reductions in wealth, property, and inheritance taxes, we expect more residents from high-tax states such as New York, San Francisco, and Los Angeles to continue arriving in drones.
• With prominent Canadian buyers expected to join our Latin American loyalists in 2024, we expect our foreign buyer share to grow exponentially.
• With mortgage rates predicted to drop in 2024 and condo owners in dated buildings (20 years and older) facing costly repairs given the new laws, we expect more buyers and sellers to enter the market, keeping it balanced through 2024 as steady demand checks off any increase in market inventory.

Now, if you'd like a free market evaluation of your luxury property, please call, email, or chat to connect with one of our experienced local real estate professionals. And if you have any questions or comments about the stats or would like more information about a luxury Miami condo, Contact Sep at sniakan@blackbookproperties.com or call 305-725-0566.

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