The year opened to a spectacular start as the combined neighborhood of Coral Gables and Coconut Grove reported record-high sales and record-low inventory for Q1 2021. With South Florida still being the market of choice for tax-conscious businesses and wealthy individuals, this pair of beautiful neighborhoods posted the highest quarterly sales seen in over 6 years. The Price per Square Foot too grew in response to this surge in demand.

A look at Condoblackbook.com's overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Report for Q1 2021 further reveals that trends in this grouping were the same as the overall report. Sales, Prices, and Days on Market were higher year-over-year, while Inventory was at an all-time low. Read on for our exclusive and full-length analysis on how the collective neighborhoods of Coral Gables and Coconut Grove performed year-over-year as well as against the overall market. 

For the purpose of this Miami submarket luxury condo report, we've only included properties priced $1 million and above.

Q1 2021 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Highlights:

• Q1 Sales set new record with highest quarterly sales in over 6 years
• 12-month Sales Trendline corrects from negative in Q4 2020 to positive in Q1 2021
• Quarterly sales uptrend for 3 consecutive quarters
• Price per Square Foot up 32.8% year-over-year to $665/sq. ft. – leads year-over-year price growth with highest percentage increase in all of Miami
• Sales Price up 27.7% year-over-year
• Days on Market up 30% year-over-year
• Inventory down 41% year-over-year, continues being one of lowest in Miami
• Market on verge of correcting from buyer's to seller's market

Table of Contents

1. Q1 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Q1 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Price Trends
3. Q1 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
4. Q1 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
5. Q1 2021 Conclusion

Q1 2021 Luxury Condo Sales Trends - New Records Set

Highest quarterly sales since 2015 with positive trendline. Consistent with the overall Miami market trend of higher year-over-year sales, this pair of historically-significant neighborhoods reported impressive numbers too.

On an upward trend for 3 straight quarters, Q1 2021 sales finally peaked to post a brand-new high (Fig 2.1). Posting the highest sales in a quarter in over 6 years of our reporting, the combined neighborhood of Coral Gables & Coconut Grove also had 22.6% growth in year-over-year sales.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 2.1

A look into the Monthly Sales chart (Fig. 2.2), shows that January got off to a slower start (4 sales) compared to the same month last year (13 sales). However, the market more than caught up in the final two months -- with February reporting double the sales (13 sales) of last year (7 sales) and March posting 21 sales compared to last year's 11 sales.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Mar. 2021 - Fig. 2.2

Further, this incredible boost in quarterly sales is perfectly captured in the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 2.3 that corrected from a negative curve in Q4 2020 to positive this Q1 2021.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot & Sales Price Up – Lead YoY Price Growth in Miami

Price per Square Foot up 32.8% to $665, Median Sales Price down 27.7% year-over-year. Consistent with the overall market trend of higher year-over-year prices, this Coral Gables and Coconut Grove grouping reported an increase in Median Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price. These two popular Miami neighborhoods still make a great entry point into Miami's luxury condo market, with the lowest price per square foot of all Miami neighborhoods under review. Still, it has provided sellers with one of the highest percentage growth in year-over-year prices out of all neighborhoods as well.

The Price per Square Foot increased 32.8% year-over-year, up from $501 in Q1 last year to $665 this year. The Sales Price also increased 27.7% year-over-year, up from $1,175,000 in Q1 last year to $1,500,000 same quarter this year (Fig. 1).

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 3

Looking at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per square foot in Fig. 3, the price closed in the higher range for this combined neighborhood. At $665 per square foot, sellers received excellent value for their luxury condos compared to a year ago.

Days on Market Up QoQ & YoY

Days on Market increase 30% year-over-year. Going with the overall market trend in Miami, this combined neighborhood also posted an increase in quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year Days on Market. However, this increase is due to sellers putting paused listings back on the market in an attempt to make the most of a booming season of sales and sellers remaining firm on sales prices. 

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 4

Luxury condos spent 33 extra days on market compared to the same quarter last year, as well as 25 more days compared to the previous quarter (Fig. 4).

Inventory Down to Second Lowest in Miami, One of First to Reach Seller's Market

Q1 closes with 13 months of Inventory. As predicted in previous reports, inventory in the combined market of Coral Gables and Coconut Grove is one of the first in Miami to reach the ideal 9-12-month inventory benchmark of a balanced market. At 13 months, inventory is down 13.3% from December (15 months) last year and down 41% from March (22 months) last year.

In sync with the overall market trend in Miami, inventory in this grouping is down to a historical low – setting a new record. The combined district also reports the second lowest months of inventory of all the Miami neighborhoods tracked in our overall analysis.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Mar. 2021 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

As the Coral Gables and Coconut Grove market has corrected to a balanced position, sellers are going to have better control over negotiations and pricing after a long hiatus. This means that buyers have a very short window of opportunity to get their hands on the best deals in the market. To look at the kind of inventory available and find last-minute deals, search for Coral Gables or Coconut Grove condos for sale here.

Q1 2021 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Conclusion

The collective neighborhoods of Coral Gables and Coconut Grove reported the same trends seen in our Q1 2021 overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Report. Sales boomed to report a new record in quarterly numbers, posting the highest volume seen in over 6 years. The 12-month Sales Trendline turned positive from a negative curve in the previous quarter, much like the overall market trend (also positive).

On the price front, the Price per Square Foot improved year-over-year in response to the surge in demand, just like the overall market. At 665/sq. ft., sellers received great year-over-year value for their luxury condos, even though this is the most affordable entry point into Miami's luxury condo market.

The Days on Market were higher year-over-year owing to paused listings making a comeback, adding to their overall days spent on the market, as well as buyers remaining firm on sales prices. 

In terms of inventory, as expected, the dynamic grouping of Coral Gables and Coconut Grove is one of the first in Miami to reach the 9-12-month inventory benchmark of a balanced market. The combined neighborhood posted the lowest levels of inventory we've reported to date, just like the overall report. With the long-standing buyer's market on its way out, sellers will now be able to dominate deals and fetch better profits on their luxury condo sales.

As real estate experts, we're expecting this enhanced sales momentum to continue into the second quarter of 2021, at least, since that is historically known to be the best of the year. After that, the market is known to take a breather for a few quarters. However, until then, inventory levels will be low enough and there will be enough momentum for the market to stay balanced (opposed to the buyer's market we've seen for so long). We further expect the following factors to influence the course of the year:

• more and more businesses plus individuals looking to catch tax breaks will continue migrating from high-tax states,
• those looking to shift base to a warmer home by the beach will take the opportunity presented by relaxed work from home norms,
• inventory levels will stay low as limited project deliveries are expected in the near future.

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Cover image by Thomas Schroeder from Pixabay