The Miami luxury condo market is still very strong, as it posts the highest third-quarter sales seen in over 6 years (of our reporting). Q3 2021 again delivered record-setting sales year-over-year, as expected of this record-breaking year in the Miami luxury condo market. However, the market couldn't break free of historical seasonal trends, and reported a decrease in number of sales compared to Q2 (historically the strongest quarter of the year). While some can see this as the market cooling, it may just be a moment for the market to catch its breath as inventory shrinks. Inventory dropped 84% year-over-year to 8 months, owing to strong market momentum.

Edgewater is back leading sales growth in Miami in Q3 2021, like Q1, after taking a brief hiatus in Q2 this year. Brickell is the second favorite Miami neighborhood amongst buyers this third quarter. And Fisher Island also keeps its rank of "most expensive" this quarter, making it one of the most premium addresses in all of Miami.

Exceptionally high demand by out-of-towners (national and international), is pushing inventory down to new lows and reducing days on market for luxury condos. Both metrics are lower quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year, showing that Miami's luxury condo market is a very strong sellers' market.

Still, some questions have carried over from the previous quarter. Has the market touched its peak and will shown signs of a cooling or contracting? Or, is this a seasonal correction and the market will bounce back with new records in 2022? Answers to these questions will only become clearer as we analyze numbers from the fourth and final quarter of the year. However, if prices are to be taken as an indicator, the market is showing signs of a correction, as both the price per square foot and median sales price are down in Q3 compared to Q2 this year. 

Read below for our in-depth analysis of the quarterly data on how prices, days on market, and inventory are responding to strong buyer demand and more changes in our full-length Q3 2021 Miami Luxury Condo Market Report:

This luxury condo market report only includes data for properties priced $1 million and above, and covers the neighborhoods of Greater Downtown Miami (including Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown), Miami Beach (inclusive of South Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach, and Fisher Island), as well as Coral Gables and Coconut Grove.

Q3 2021 - Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Highlights

• Edgewater and Brickell are Miami's most popular neighborhoods this 3rd quarter, leading sales growth with a 386% and 355% increase year-over-year, respectively
• Record-setting Q3 2021 - while slower than exceptionally high Q2 - still posts highest quarterly sales in over 6 years, as well as higher than Q1 2021
• 12-month sales trendline stays positive from Q4 2020 through Q3 2021
• Overall Prices post mixed trends – Median Sales Price down 9%, while Price per Sq. Ft. up 8.6%, year-over-year
• Fisher Island continues as the most expensive neighborhood of Q3 2021 with a median price of $1,418/sq. ft. – maintains top spot for 4 quarters in a row
• Fisher Island's luxury condos offer maximum value to sellers with highest percentage growth (77%) in year-over-year Price per Sq. Ft., knocking off Sunny Isles Beach from top spot in Q2
• All building segments (newly built to classic) report strong annual sales growth in Q3 2021 – with buildings dated 2000-2014 again posting the highest sales volume of all
• Sellers received a maximum return on investment (ROI) for condos built before 2000
• Days on Market down 14.7% year-over-year
• Inventory down 84% year-over-year to 8 months, owing to strong market momentum
• Fisher Island plus Coconut Grove & Coral Gables post the lowest inventory (5 months) of all Miami neighborhoods, closely followed by South Beach, Mid/North Beach, plus Surfside & Bal Harbour (7 months each)
• Seller's market thrives

Table of Contents

1. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales
3. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
4. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
5. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Price Trends by Building Year
6. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
7. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
8. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
9. Conclusion
10. Where does the Miami Luxury Condo Market go from Here?
    
    

Highest Luxury Condo Sales for a 3rd Quarter

Sales up 178.8% year-over-year, dip seasonally quarter-over-quarter

As expected of a record-shattering year, this quarter reports the highest number of sales seen in a third-quarter since before 2015 (Fig 1.2). Posting a 178.8% increase over Q3 2020 and a 217.5% increase over the same quarter in 2019, the luxury condo market keeps its record-setting pace, outdoing both pandemic and pre-pandemic numbers (Fig. 1.1 & 1.1a).

However, after posting increasing sales for 4 consecutive quarters, Miami's luxury condo market showed some cooling off. Q3 2021 overall sales reported a 32% decline against Q2 this year. This quarter-over-quarter decline could be due to the possible reasons: 

• the market is taking a seasonal break (as seen in Fig. 1.2 for previous years)
• the luxury condo market hit a ceiling this second quarter and numbers are now settling down to their regular pace
• inventory is becoming too tight to support continued growth

Looking into the Monthly Sales chart of Fig. 1.3, there is a clear, gradual drop in monthly numbers from April onwards. September's sales are almost half (139) of their peak in April (271). If sales continue dropping at the same pace till the end of the year, we are likely to see 2021 close with the same level of sales as in pre-pandemic years.

So, next quarter's numbers will be key in understanding how the market will unfold in 2022 and whether it did reach its apex this year.

Nonetheless, this is the strongest third-quarter seen in over 6 years, keeping the 12-month sales trendline tracking positive (Fig. 1.4). The trendline has kept its positive angle for 4 quarters in a row, from Q4 2020 through to Q3 2021.

Overall Miami Quarterly Luxury Condo Sales 2015 - 2021 - Fig. 1.2

Overall Miami Monthly Luxury Condo Sales Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 1.3

Overall Miami 12-Month Luxury Condo Sales with Trendline - Fig. 1.4

Q3 2021 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales

Q3 2021 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Sales Trends (Fig. 1.5)

• Winners: Edgewater reports the highest percentage (386%) growth in year-over-year sales, followed by Brickell (355%) and South Beach (277%)
• Up: All Miami neighborhoods post an increase in year-over-year sales: 
• Downtown (225%)
• Sunny Isles Beach (196%)
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (142%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour (84%)
• Mid/North Beach (64%)
• Fisher Island (7%)

More in-depth analysis and details are available in dedicated reports for Greater Downtown Miami, Miami Beach and the Barrier Islands, plus Coral Gables & Coconut Grove.

Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison 3Q21-over-3Q20 - Fig. 1.5

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Prices - Mixed Trends Posted

Price per square foot up 8.6% to $834, Median Price down 9% year-over-year. 

Considering this strong seller's market, the overall Price per Square Foot increased 8.6% year-over-year, up from $768/sq. ft. in Q3 2020 to $834/sq. ft. in Q3 this year (Fig. 1.1). In comparison to pre-pandemic numbers, the Price per Square Foot increased 11.7%, up from $747/sq. ft. in Q3 2019 to $834/sq. ft. in Q3 this year (Fig. 1.1a).

In contrast, the Median Sales Price for luxury condos declined 9% year-over-year, down from $1,775,000 in Q3 2020 to $1,615,000 in the same quarter this year (Fig. 1.1). Also, as compared to pre-pandemic numbers, the Median Sales Prices hovered with a slight decline of -1.9%, down from $1,646,500 in Q3 2019 to $1,615,000 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 1.1a).

This difference in Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price trends could possibly be due to higher sales volume of smaller luxury condos that pack in more amenities, keeping the price per square foot up even as the median price declines.

A closer look at Fig. 2.1 below reveals that after posting its highest peak in 5 years ($895) in Q2 2021, the Price per Square Foot for luxury condos dropped to $834 this quarter - reporting a 6.8% quarter-over-quarter decline. Even the median sales price went down 10.3%, from $1,800,000 in the previous quarter to $1,615,000 in Q3 2021. This decline in quarter-over-quarter prices could be due to a couple of reasons:

• there were more sales of luxury condos compared to ultra-luxury condos, meaning more sales in the $1M-2M, and under $5M price band compared to above $5M,
• prices reached an apex in the second quarter, leading to a natural correction this quarter.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2021 - Fig. 2.1

Q3 2021 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Price per Square Foot & Sales Price Mixed

Q3 2021 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Price Trends

Median Price per Square Foot (Fig. 2.2)

• Winner: Fisher Island continues as the most expensive neighborhood, for the 4th quarter in a row, fetching a median price of $1,418/sq. ft.
• Winner: Fisher Island reports the highest percentage growth of 77% in year-over-year Price per Square Foot, replacing Sunny Isles Beach from the top spot in Q2 2021
• Up: Other neighborhoods posting an increase in year-over-year Price per Square Foot: 
• Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (28%)
• South Beach (19%)
• Brickell (18%)
• Mid/North Beach (14%)
• Edgewater (5%)
• Flat: The grouping of Surfside and Bal Harbour posts a negligible change (+2%) in year-over-year Price per Square Foot
• Down: Neighborhoods posting a decline in year-over-year Price per Square Foot are Downtown Miami (-8%) and Sunny Isles Beach (-4%)

Miami Neighborhood 3Q21-over-3Q20 Median Price per Square Foot. Comparison - Fig. 2.2

Median Sales Price (Fig. 2.3)

• Winner: Fisher Island reports the highest percentage growth in year-over-year Median Sales Price at 153%, replacing Sunny Isles Beach from the top spot in Q2 2021
• Winner: Fisher Island continues to report the highest Median Sales Price at $5.8 million for a 5th consecutive quarter
• Up: Coconut Grove & Coral Gables reports a 23% increase in year-over-year Median Sales Price
• Flat: Mid-North Beach posts negligible change (+1%) in year-over-year Median Sales Price
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decline in year-over-year Median Sales Price:
• Downtown (-58%)
• Surfside & Bal Harbour (-37%)
• Sunny Isles Beach (-16%)
• Brickell (-10%)
• Edgewater (-7%)
• South Beach (-2%)

Miami Neighborhood 3Q21-over-3Q20 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.3

Q3 2021 Overall Miami Sales Price Trends by Building Year - Mixed

Below is a detailed analysis of how Miami luxury condo buildings performed in Q3 2021 on the basis of age of construction of the condo building, categorized as new construction buildings (2015-2021), buildings built from 2000-2014, and pre-2000 buildings.

• New Construction Buildings report quarter-over-quarter decline in sales but volumes stay higher than any of the previous years under review, and a 6.7% increase in year-over-year value
• Buildings Dated 2000-2014 post highest sales volume (227) of all 3  segments under review, and a  6.9% increase in year-over-year value
• Condos Built before 2000 report quarter-over-quarter decline in sales but numbers are the highest seen in a third-quarter since 2015, and are the best value for sellers with a 7.9% increase in year-over-year prices

Miami New Construction Condos Built 2015-2021

Echoing the overall trend, sales for this freshly built segment posted a correction in the third quarter, after posting a record-high in the previous quarter (Fig. 3.1). With 197 sales in Q3 2021, sales volume is 24% lower compared to Q2 this year, but 40% higher than Q1 2021. Sales are also 3.7 times higher than those in Q3 2020 and 5.3 times those in the same quarter 2019.

This shows that this newly built segment continues to receive high demand, even as a seasonal correction sets in. Anecdotally, we have been noticing exceptionally high demand for pre-construction luxury condos, with most projects getting sold out even before shovels hit the ground. Many of these pre-construction sales are not recording in centralized databases, and thus are not included in the quarterly sales data and reports. 

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales for Buildings Dated 2015-2021 - Fig. 3.1

Fig. 3.2 reveals the Price per Square Foot declined 12.4% quarter-over-quarter but improved 6.7% year-over-year. Closing the quarter at $1,011/sq. ft., luxury condo sellers in this segment received decent value over the previous year, even as prices reduced quarter-over-quarter.

Miami New Construction Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot (Buildings Built 2015-2021) - Fig. 3.2

Miami Luxury Condos Built 2000-2014

Again, in step with the overall trend, sales for luxury condos built 2000-2014 declined quarter-over-quarter but maintained momentum over previous years (Fig. 3.3). With 227 sales in Q3 2021, volumes are 36% lower compared to Q2 this year, but similar to those in Q1 2021. Sales are also 2.5 times higher than those in Q3 2020 and 2.9 times those in the same quarter 2019.

With the highest sales volume of all 3 segments under review, buildings built 2000-2014 were found to be the most popular among buyers for Q3 2021.

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.3

Fig. 3.4 below shows the Price per Square Foot declined 5.9% quarter-over-quarter but increased 6.9% year-over-year for buildings built 2000-2014. Closing the quarter at $804/sq. ft., luxury condo sellers received good value over the previous year, even as prices corrected quarter-over-quarter.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.4

Miami Luxury Condos Built Before 2000

Sales for Miami's older luxury buildings (built pre-2000) dropped 36.7% against Q2 2021 and 11.5% compared to Q1 2021 (Fig. 3.5). With 100 total sales in the third quarter, volumes are still 2.3 times stronger than those in Q3 2020 and twice those in the same quarter 2019.

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.5

Fig. 3.6 below reveals the Price per Square Foot declined 5.4% quarter-over-quarter but improved 7.9% year-over-year. Closing the quarter at $1,011/sq. ft., luxury condo sellers in this older built segment received the best year-over-year value of all 3 segments under review

Overall Miami Luxury Condos Price per Sq. Ft.  (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.6

Overall Miami Luxury Condos - Days on Market Down QoQ + YoY

Days on Market down 14.7% quarter-over-quarter. In Q3 2021, luxury condos spent 14 fewer days on market compared to Q2 this year (Fig. 4.1), showing a continued tightening of the market. On a year-over-year basis, these luxury condos spent 77 fewer days on market (DOM) compared to Q3 2020, reporting an incredible 48.7% decline.

In keeping with the dramatic pace of the market, we expected for the days that condos spend on the market to drop accordingly. The metric is also lower than the median days spent on market pre-pandemic, with luxury condos spending 71 fewer DOM compared to Q3 2019 – a decline of 46.7% (Fig. 1.1a).

This decline shows that buyers and sellers are quickly coming to a consensus on dealings and that most of the oldest properties on the market have sold, which were keeping the metric unusually high during the previous quarters.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2021 - Fig. 4.1

Q3 2021 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market Dropping

Q3 2021 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Days on Market Trends (Fig. 4.2)

• Winner: Fisher Island posts the greatest decline of 140 days in its year-over-year Median Days on Market (-67%)
• Other neighborhoods posting a decline in their Median Days on Market for luxury condos in Miami:
• Sunny Isles Beach (-52%)
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (-52%) 
• Mid/North Beach (-51%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour (-47%)
• Brickell (-42%)
• South Beach (-41%)
• Downtown (-21%)
• Up: Edgewater reports a 13% increase in year-over-year Days on Market for luxury condos

Miami Neighborhood 3Q21-Over-3Q20 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.2

Luxury Condo Inventory Down to New Low of 8 months – Seller's Market Stays

Q3 2021 closes with 8 months of inventory. Heightened buyer demand has pushed Miami's luxury condo inventory to a new low. Steadily dropping down from its June 2020 peak of 57 months, inventory is down to 8 months.

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory is down from 9 months in June 2021 to 8 months this September - a decline of 11.1%. On a year-over-year basis, inventory is down from 50 months in September 2020, an astounding 84% drop in one year period. Comparing it to pre-pandemic levels, inventory is down 78.4% from 37 months in September 2019 (Fig. 5.1).

Considering a balanced market holds 9-12 months of inventory, Miami's luxury condos sit in a highly favorable sellers' market. With sellers being in control of pricing and exceptionally high demand, we recommend buyers either to put in a strong offer (preferably over asking price) immediately or be ready to wait a few cycles to see whether prices will continue to decline as they have between Q2 and Q3 2021.

On the other hand, we recommend that sellers looking to move out of town or thinking of making a profit on their investment or vacation home should act fast. With the luxury condo market being in one of its strongest cycles seen in a long time, we recommend sellers to quickly cash in on their investments before new luxury condo inventory hits the market. There are plenty of pre-construction projects that have already sold out before shovels hit the ground and more are being announced each month. So, with inventory running scarce and still some time before newly built condos land on the market, sellers will find this to be a highly favorable climate.

Overall Miami Months of Luxury Condo Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 5.1

A balanced market has about 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as the number of active listings + number of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Miami Overall Luxury Condo Market - Q3 2021 Conclusion

Seller's market cycle continues with strong sales and even lower inventory

As predicted in our Q2 2021 Miami Overall Luxury Condo Report, the market has adjusted for its seasonal variance with Q3 sales down 32% from the previous quarter. However, posting the highest third-quarter sales in over 6 years and a soaring positive 12-month sales trendline, the market is still strong with ample demand fueling momentum to the end of the year.

This strong demand can further be seen across the board, as all Miami neighborhoods under review post sales growth along with lower days on market and months of inventory. Much like Q1 2021, Edgewater leads sales growth this third quarter with a 386% year-over-year increase, this time followed by Brickell (355%) and South Beach (277%).

However, one of the most pertinent questions here is "whether the market is taking a seasonal break and will bounce back with record numbers in 2021?" or "the market has hit a ceiling and will continue to correct as we enter 2022?" Considering sales are down quarter-over-quarter coupled with lower median prices quarter-over-quarter, the market seems to be showing signs of normalizing to pre-pandemic numbers after enjoying an exceptional year of sales. This makes Q4 2021 trends key in determining how the market is likely to unfold in 2022.

Of all the Miami neighborhoods under review, luxury condos in Fisher Island offered the highest year-over-year increase in value (77%) to sellers in Miami. Buildings built 2000-2014 recorded the highest sales volume out of all 3 segments (newly built to classic). Interestingly, the older luxury condo buildings of Miami (built before 2000) offered the highest value to sellers with a 7.9% increase in year-over-year prices.

After posting higher days on market through Q4 2020 and Q1 2021 (moving contrary to market momentum), the metric has been steadily declining from Q2 2021 through to Q3 2021. This shows that a majority of the oldest luxury condo listings have been wiped off the market and buyers are meeting (and even exceeding) sellers' price expectations, closing deals sooner this third quarter.

Even on a neighborhood level, the majority of the sub-markets report a decline in the days spent on market by luxury condos – with only Edgewater posting an increase.

Inventory reported a new low in Q3 2021, adjusting down to 8 months, with some neighborhoods reporting just 5 months. With data now lower than the ideal 9–12-month marker of a balanced market, Miami's luxury condo market is completely out of its long-drawn (more than 6 years) buyer-friendly cycle and is now securely in seller-friendly waters. With strong buyer demand and fewer new construction deliveries scheduled in the immediate future, we are expecting this sellers' cycle to continue into 2022. Owing to this sellers' market, owners are receiving competitive offers, most over the asking price, making it one of the best times to turn a profit on their second homes or investment properties.

For buyers looking to see the kind of inventory available on the market, you can search for all currently listed luxury condos for sale in Miami here. 

Miami's Luxury Condo Market Prediction 2021: Where Does the Market Go From Here?

After three consecutive quarters of booming sales and new highs, Miami's luxury condo market seems to be taking a break this third quarter, but within the context of the strongest year on record. Will this be a brief cool down or one that brings numbers back down to regular levels (read pre-pandemic) is something that the fourth quarter is expected to answer.

Meanwhile, we expect the following factors to influence Miami's luxury condo market performance through to the end of 2021: 

Lifting of travel bans and safe investment haven. With travel bans lifting for fully vaccinated travelers this November (domestic as well as international), more buyers are expected to land in Miami by the end of the year. It's no secret that Miami has always been a top favorite among South American buyers, giving them a safer haven to park their investment money or setting up second homes (away from the political unrest of their home countries). Considering both these factors, we expect sales momentum to stay strong through to the end of the year.

Warm winters and wider work-from-home acceptability. The balmy winters of Miami have always been a great respite for those coming in from the frozen corridors of the north. Considering more and more people are choosing to switch to a permanent work-from-home arrangement and/or following businesses migrating to South Florida, more individuals will be looking to settle into that home office by the ocean. Add to that ample outdoor spaces, year-round events, and no personal income tax, the appeal is irresistible for many.

Tax savings and continued business migration. Miami has become the new favorite for established businesses, startups, as well as high net worth individuals looking to save precious tax money, including those provided by local municipalities. With Brickell becoming the "Wall Street of the South," we are expecting a steady inflow of domestic demand for luxury housing.

Inventory keeping low. Although Miami's pre-construction market is in overdrive with developers announcing new projects by the droves, it will take a while for all this new inventory to be delivered. With sales staying strong and fewer deliveries in the immediate future, we expect inventory levels to stay low in this seller's market.

If you'd like more details on the data in our exclusive Condo Blackbook quarterly luxury condo market reports, please send us an email or call us anytime.

Love what you see? Share our blog and subscribe (see the subscribe link on the top menu) to receive authoritative and vetted Miami real estate market news in your inbox. Also, keep up with us on your favorite social media platforms. We're on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter @blackbookproperties.

Cover photo by Colin Lloyd on Unsplash