Q3 2023 Miami Luxury Condo Report: Balanced Market Thrives

Q3 2023 Miami Luxury Condo Report: Balanced Market Thrives

Oct 20, 2023 October 20, 2023

In a market expected to wind down after a high-paced second quarter (as it does every year in Miami), our exclusive Blackbook Properties quarterly sales analysis reported a remarkable third quarter surge compared to previous years. During the Q3 2023, Miami’s luxury condo market recorded its second-highest sales in a third quarter, as well as an almost 10% increase in total sales year-over-year, with small increases in prices as well. 

Booming to its second-highest levels in history, powered mainly by sales on mainland Miami, Q3 2023 luxury condo sales volumes were higher than 2023 and just slightly below the record-setting high of Q3 2021. This, together with stable-to-up prices and healthy market inventory, shows that Miami’s luxury housing market remains balanced with sustainable growth opportunities for buyers and sellers.

Supercharged since the beginning of the pandemic, Miami’s luxury housing market has grown by leaps and bounds, owing to a mass migration of businesses and people over the past three years. Love it or hate it, Miami is no longer a vacation hotspot for tourists and foreign buyers; it’s now matured into a major international city where anyone can anchor down with the family, build a career, and enjoy an active lifestyle. 

Add to that a wide range of waterfront to branded luxury housing options, breathtaking outdoors, plus an international quality of life, and it’s no wonder Miami now ranks as the fifth-most valuable housing market in the U.S., with New Yorkers emerging as the new “foreign buyers” in terms of homebuyer volume.


Quick Glance: Miami’s Luxury Housing Market in Q3 2023

Third-quarter sales outperformed pre-pandemic years, logging its second highest Q3 ever, second only to the record-setting high of Q3 2021! Plus, owing to incredible sales activity in what is typically a sluggish quarter (based on historical data analysis), inventory increased by only 16.7% to 14 months, staying close to the balanced range of 9-12 months. With relatively low levels of inventory, Miami’s luxury condo market is in equilibrium, where buyers and sellers have equal opportunity at the table.

For the last quarter of 2023, we, as real estate experts, expect Miami's luxury condo market to pace down further (as it does every year) but stay within its newfound growth thresholds and maintain healthy levels of inventory – cruising through the remainder of the year in a balanced market.


Q3 2023 MIAMI LUXURY CONDO QUARTERLY MARKET SUMMARY

 

Number of  Sales

% change  in Sales

Median  Sale Price

% change  in Median  Sale Price

Median  SP/SqFt

% change  in Median  SP/SqFt

Median  Days On Market

Q3 2023

354

8.9%

$1,622,500

4.7%

$933

1.0%

75

Q3 2022

325

$1,550,000

$924

62

For the purpose of this Miami luxury condo market report, we've only included properties priced $1 million and above. The neighborhoods included in this market summary include Downtown Miami, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District, Brickell, Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, Miami Beach, Fisher Island, Surfside and Bal Harbour, and Sunny Isles Beach.


— Q3 2023 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market: Key Statistics 
 


Q3 2023 - Closed Sales: 354

  • Year-over-Year Change in Closed Sales: 8.9% 
  • 354 sales vs 325 sales in Q3 2022
  • Quarter-over-quarter Change in Closed Sales: -17.1% 
  • 354 vs 427 sales in Q2 2023

Q3 2023 - Median Sales Price: $1.6M

  • Year-over-Year Change in Median Sales Price: 4.7% 
  • $1.62M in Q3 2023 vs $1.55M in Q3 2022

Q3 2023 - Inventory: 14 months


Read on for a closer look into a neighborhood-wise breakdown of our quarterly findings for Q3 2023:


— Q3 2023 - Miami Luxury Condo Market Sales Statistics


Overall sales up 8.9% year-over-year, 2nd-highest in a third quarter

With 354 sales overall, Q3 2023 volumes were 8.9% higher than the previous year (325 sales in Q3 2022). Only behind the astronomical high of Q3 2021 (536 sales), Q3 2023 outperformed all other previous years, reporting the second-highest volumes on record for a third quarter.

Even as the market expectedly paced down after a high geared summer, volumes declined only 17.1% quarter-over-quarter – down from 427 in Q2 2023 to 354 in Q3 2023. This shows that buyer demand remained exceptionally strong even though the third quarter of the year is historically known to be one of the slowest.

As real estate experts, we expect Miami’s luxury condo market to close Q4 on a slower but stable note, keeping the market balanced with sustainable growth anticipated for the next few market cycles, at least.


Q3 2023 Miami Neighborhood Luxury Sales at a Glance

Neighborhood

Q3 2023

Q3 2022

% Change

Greater Downtown Miami*

118

107

+10.3%

Miami Beach**

189

189

0%

Coconut Grove & Coral Gables

47

29

+62.1%

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown
**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island. 


Looking into a broader, neighborhood-wise sales comparison (above), the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove & Coral Gables emerged as the strongest market of Q3 – reporting a 62.1% increase in year-over-year sales. Greater Downtown Miami also contributed to the overall sales boost reported above, with a 10.3% growth in year-over-year volumes.

A closer look at the sub-markets shows that Fisher Island topped popularity charts in the third quarter – leading market growth with the highest percentage gain in year-over-year sales growth (8 in Q3 2023 vs. 3 in Q3 2022). On the other hand, Brickell reported the highest sales volume out of all the neighborhoods under our review, closing the third quarter with 67 total sales. (Subscribe to this blog to receive more details in our in-depth Q3 2023 market report for overall Miami.)

Because of this remarkable growth, even with market momentum expected to slow down during the third quarter, the 12-month sales trendline maintained its positive trajectory from Q2 to Q3 2023. Except for Edgewater, all other Miami neighborhoods in our analysis reported a positive 12-month trendline. This indicates that the market is most likely to maintain its momentum, with ample buyer demand keeping inventory levels down and close to their balanced range, even as the fourth quarter comes up softer (a trend noted from historical data analysis).


— Q3 2023 - Miami Luxury Condo Market Price Statistics


Price/SF flat year-over-year at $933

As expected of a balanced market, sellers continued receiving excellent value for their luxury condo investments in Miami. Price per square foot positive reported a marginal uptick of 1% compared to a year ago. A majority of the Miami neighborhoods under our review contributed to the statistic, either reporting gains or a flat price year-over-year. South Beach and Mid-North Beach were the only exceptions, reporting a decline in year-over price per square foot.

Luxury condos in the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove & Coral Gables again closed Q3 with the highest percentage gains in year-over-year Price per Square Foot. Prices in this sub-market increased from $758 in Q3 2022 to $869 in Q3 2023 – a 14.6% increase year-over-year. (Find more details in our upcoming, in-depth neighborhood reports for Q3 2023.) 

As always, Fisher Island was the most expensive zip code for luxury condos in Miami and Miami Beach with a median price of $1,988 per square foot. On the other hand, Downtown Miami maintained its title as the most affordable neighborhood in Q3, with a median price of $711 per square foot.


Q3 2023 Miami Neighborhood Price per Square Foot at a Glance

Neighborhood

Q3 2023

Q3 2022

% Change

Greater Downtown Miami*

$857

$828

+3.4%

Miami Beach**

$1,116

$1,081

+3.2%

Coconut Grove & Coral Gables

$869

$758

+14.6%

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown
**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island. 


— Q3 2023 - Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Statistics


Days on Market up 21% from Q3 2023 – Luxury condos took 75 days to sell

Even with increased sales momentum, luxury condos spent 13 extra days on the market – listing to closing – compared to a year ago (75 days in Q3-23 vs. 62 days in Q3-22). The majority of the Miami neighborhoods under our analysis also reported higher Days on Market.

Taking only 54 days to sell, Downtown Miami emerged as the fastest-selling market this quarter. On the other hand, Fisher Island again reported the highest days on market, as properties took 165 days on average to sell. However, this is usual as I it is a very specific market segment.


Q3 2023 Days on Market at a Glance
 

Neighborhood

Q3 2023

Q3 2022

% Change

Greater Downtown Miami*

70

56

+25%

Miami Beach**

83

68

+22%

Coconut Grove & Coral Gables

63

43

+46.5%

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown
**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island. 


— Q3 2023 - Miami Luxury Condo Market Inventory Statistics


Overall Inventory at 14 months

Our Q3 2023 analysis noted a healthy and balanced market dynamic for Miami’s luxury housing sector. With overall inventory closing at 14 months, up by only 16.7% from 12 months in June 2023, the statistic stayed close to the 9-12-month range of an ideal market. With the market at equilibrium, buyers and sellers hold equal opportunity in this healthy market poised for sustainable growth.

Of all the neighborhoods under review, the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove and Coral Gables again reported the lowest months of inventory (9 months), with South Beach as well as Surfside and Bal Harbour (both at 12 months) following close.

Considering all of the above statistics, combined with what we’re seeing anecdotally, we expect inventory levels to increase marginally towards the end of the year as the market cools down ahead of winter (typical of Miami’s cyclical market). But, with levels staying closer to a balanced range, we expect our luxury housing market to remain equally valuable for buyers and sellers.


Q3 2023 Inventory at a Glance

Neighborhood

Q3 2023

Q3 2022

% Change

Greater Downtown Miami*

15

10

+50%

Miami Beach**

14

9

+55.5%

Coconut Grove & Coral Gables

9

5

+80%

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown
**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.


— Q3 2023 Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Market Summary

Even as market momentum slowed ever so slightly from Q2, Q3 sales closed with the second-highest volume of all time – just short of creating a record for what is usually a slower quarter (based on historical trends).

Prices remained stable at $933/SF, hovering around the previous year’s closing of $924/SF – giving sellers excellent value for their investment properties in Miami.

The Days on Market may have seasonally increased but still remained flat compared to the previous quarter.

And, inventory levels increased by only 16.7% compared to the previous quarter, keeping the market balanced and in favor of sustainable growth for buyers as well as sellers.


— Q3 2023 Miami Luxury Housing Market Predictions

With national rankings already pitching Miami as one of the most valuable housing markets in the U.S. and Q3 2023 statistics backing these claims, Miami’s luxury condo market is in one of its most favorable cycles in recent history. Even with the next quarter poised for a slowdown, as real estate experts, we expect the following factors to continue fueling demand for our globally coveted luxury housing market:

  • With a 2023 SmartAsset report ranking Florida as the “No. 1 destination for professionals aged 25 to 36 earning at least $200,000,” coupled with the lure of a beachy home and favorable tax benefits, we expect luxury housing to continue enjoying strong buyer demand in Miami.
  • With another report stating that there have been over three times as many high-earners arriving in Florida as leaving, plus New Yorkers becoming the new “foreign buyers” in Miami considering the number of relocations, we expect steady demand from business magnates to well-compensated employees to fuel our market as well as economy.
  • In a market where cash is king (a 2022 report by MiamiRealtor.com mentions that 2 out of every 3 Florida foreign buyers pay in cash), we expect deep-pocketed home shoppers to keep the market moving even with high mortgage rates.
  • Add to that our newfound status as the #2 Happiest and Healthiest City in the U.S.ease of leading an active lifestyle, outstanding beaches and nature-dominated landscape, plus an international quality of life, and we expect to remain in the spotlight for domestic as well as international buyers.
  • Further, with a booming new construction condo market, offering high-end products such as the Bentley Residences or The St. Regis Residences, along with ample prospects for future growth as noted in a 2023 Knight Frank report, we expect more ultra-high-net-worth and high-net-worth investors to fly down to our sunny shores.

To stay tuned for our exclusive, in-depth analysis of the Q3 2023 luxury condo market in Miami, subscribe to this blog as we will soon be rolling out separate reports for the overall Miami market, Miami Beach, Greater Downtown Miami, and Coconut Grove plus Coral Gables (collectively).


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If you have specific questions about this data, or want a market assessment of your property, please reach out to us directly or via our social media @blackbookproperties.

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