Q4 2023 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Report - Healthy Market Thrives

Q4 2023 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Report - Healthy Market Thrives

Jan 24, 2024 January 24, 2024

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Closing Q3 2023 with remarkable growth, Greater Downtown Miami's luxury condo market defied seasonal trends, logging the second-highest third quarter numbers on record. This urban core grouping recorded remarkable momentum in a quarter generally known to pace down after a high-pitched Q2 (as noted from historical trends).

In Q3 2023, sales may have fallen short of setting a new record but were consistently higher compared to pre-pandemic years. Downtown Miami emerged as the strongest market in the Greater Downtown area (which also includes Brickell, Edgewater and the Arts & Entertainment District), reporting the highest percentage increase in year-over-year sales. Edgewater continued to be the most expensive market for luxury condos in Greater Downtown - reporting a median price/sq. ft. of $889.

In a market expected to cool down after a high-pitched 2021 and the onset of winter (generally a slower cycle in Miami's seasonal market), it's quite exciting to see that Greater Downtown Miami's luxury condo market expanded to report four times the annual sales seen in pre-pandemic years. A nod to a new, more robust era in Miami's luxury housing market.

A closer look into Q4 2023 reaffirms that even as sales fell short of 2021's epic highs, the market adhered to its newfound benchmarks with higher quarterly volumes than those seen in 2020 and earlier. Downtown Miami emerged as the strongest market in Greater Downtown, as the only neighborhood to report positive sales growth in Q4 2023. Edgewater continued as the most expensive market for luxury condos in Greater Downtown – reporting a median price/sq. ft. of $954.

The hot Downtown Miami pocket continued offering the most affordable entry point into Miami's luxury condo market, with a price of $762/sq. ft. Downtown Miami also maintained its status as the fastest-selling neighborhood in Q4 2023, with luxury condos taking about 2 months (58 days) to sell on average.

Read below for our exclusive and in-depth analysis of how the entire Greater Downtown area, including Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown Miami performed over Q4 2023, along with a detailed comparison to the annual trends of 2023, plus quarterly Miami luxury condo trends in terms of sales, prices, days on market, and inventory. 

Quick summary of Q4 2023 for the Greater Downtown Miami area includes:

  • Brickell had the most sales volume (51 sales)
  • Downtown Miami had the greatest sales growth YoY (8%)
  • Edgewater posted the highest median sales price ($1.8 million)
  • Edgewater posted the highest price per square foot ($954)

For this report, we've only included areas with zipcodes 33129, 33130, 33131, 33132, 33137 – Brickell Hammock, Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown Miami, Arts & Entertainment District, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District. This luxury condo market report only features properties priced $1 million and above, and generally does not include pre-construction condo sales.


Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2023 YoY (Number of Sales)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2023 YoY (Number of Sales)


Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2023 YoY (Median Sales Price)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2023 YoY (Median Sales Price)


Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2023 YoY (Median SP/SqFt)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2023 YoY (Median SP/SqFt)


2023 Annual Greater Downtown Miami + Sub-Neighborhood Luxury Condo Market Highlights

  • Annual sales are down 31.1% against 2022, but still about four times higher compared to pre-pandemic years.
  • Winner: Downtown Miami topped popularity among buyers. It emerged as the second-most resilient market of 2023 in Miami with minimal decline in year-over-year sales (-17%).
  • Annual price per square foot up to record high of $872.
  • Winner: Edgewater led price growth with the highest percentage gains in price per square foot (8.6%), offering maximum value to sellers.
  • Winner: Edgewater remained the most expensive neighborhood of 2023 with a median price of $954/sq. ft.
  • Annual days on market are up 9.5% in 2023-over-2022 analysis.
  • 2023 closed as a buyer's market in Greater Downtown (on paper) but to be viewed as a balanced market.

Q4 2023 - Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Highlights

  • Sales are down 8.8% year-over-year, but still higher than in Q1 2021 and all other previous quarters.
  • The 12-month sales trendline shifted from positive in Q3 to negative in Q4 2023.
  • Price per square foot is up 4.1% year-over-year to $870.
  • Median sales price is down 7.2% year-over-year to $1.28M.
  • Days on market are up 27.6% year-over-year.
  • Inventory is up to 19 months.

Q4 2023 - Greater Downtown Miami Sub-neighborhood Highlights

  • Winner: Downtown Miami led sales growth with the highest percentage increase in year-over-year volume (8%).
  • The 12-month sales trendline is negative across the board.
  • Winner: Downtown Miami condos offered maximum value to sellers in the Greater Downtown area with the highest percentage gains (4.7%) in year-over-year price per square foot review.
  • Winner: Edgewater continued as the most expensive neighborhood of Greater Downtown, priced at $954/sq. ft.
  • Winner: Edgewater also reported the highest median sales price in Greater Downtown at $1.8 million.
  • Winners: Downtown Miami emerged as the fastest-selling market in Miami overall, with condos taking only 58 days to sell.
  • Brickell continued reporting the lowest levels of inventory in Greater Downtown Miami at 17 months.


Table of Contents

  1. Greater Downtown Miami 
  2. Edgewater Trends 
  3. Brickell Trends
  4. Downtown Trends 
  5. Conclusion

     

Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q4 2023

83

-32.5%

$1,280,000

-5.2%

$870

1.1%

74

Q3 2023

123

$1,350,000

$860

71



Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1.1

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q4 2023

83

-8.8%

$1,280,000

-7.2%

$870

4.1%

74

Q4 2022

91

$1,380,000

$836

58



Annual 2023-over-2022 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1a

Year

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

2023

445

-31.1%

$1,385,000

-1.1%

$872

5.8%

69

2022

646

$1,400,000

$824

63



Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Trends


Greater Downtown Annual + Q4 Sales: Down

Q4 2023 Sales down 8.8% year-over-year — Higher than in Q1 2021 and before

With the market expectedly pacing down after a strong summer (typical for Miami's seasonal luxury housing market), the Greater Downtown Miami area reported a decline in year-over-year sales stats, deviating from the flat sales trend noted in our overall Miami market report for Q4 2023.

Below are the key Q4 2023 sales statistics for Greater Downtown Miami:

  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales declined 8.8% year-over-year, down from 91 in Q4 last year to 83 for the same quarter in 2023. (Fig.1.1)
    • What's worth noting is that Q4 2023 volumes surpassed those recorded in Q1 2021 and earlier. This not only confirms the overall strength and desirability of the luxury housing market in Greater Downtown but also indicates how the market has grown beyond its pandemic and pre-pandemic benchmarks. (Fig. 2.1)
  • Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Sales declined, as they normally do with the change of season, by 32.5% quarter-over-quarter, down from 123 in the previous quarter to 83 sales in Q4 2023. (Fig. 1)
  • Brickell remained the highest contributor in terms of volume, reporting 51 sales this fourth quarter. On the other hand, Downtown Miami continued as the highest percentage contributor (8.3% YoY) to sales growth recorded in the Greater Downtown area.

Looking into the monthly sales trends of Fig. 2.2 for Greater Downtown Miami:

  • October closed with 29 sales versus 42 sales in the same month last year.
  • November closed with 30 luxury condo sales, down from 34 in the same month of 2022.
  • December closed with 24 sales, up from 15 in the same month a year ago.

Annual sales down -31.1% – Negative trendline

Even with the market stabilizing from the record highs of 2021, Miami's Greater Downtown area closed the year on a high note by reporting about four times the annual sales compared to pandemic and pre-pandemic years.

Annual Sales Statistics – Greater Downtown Miami

  • 2023 vs 2022. Sales declined 31.1%, down from 646 total sales in 2022 to 445 in 2023. (Fig. 1a)
  • Reporting significant growth compared to the pre-pandemic market, annual sales in 2023 (445) were much higher compared to 2019 (122 sales), 2018 (110 sales), and so on. (Fig. 2.1)

Owing to the luxury housing market cooling over winter (as it does every year after peaking in spring), the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 2.3 expectedly downshifted into a negative trajectory in Q4 2023 from its positive curve in Q3 2023.


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 2.1

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 2.1


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Dec 2023 - Fig. 2.2

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Dec 2023 - Fig. 2.2


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3


Greater Downtown Miami: Price per Square Foot Up Annually + Q4 YoY

Annual price/sq. ft. up to an all-time high of $872 – Median price flat

Partly deviating from the overall Miami trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and median price, luxury condos in Greater Downtown Miami reported positive returns with the following annual price stats (Fig. 1.a):

  • 2023 vs 2022. Price per square foot increased 5.8% year-over-year, up from $824 in 2022 to $872 in 2023.
    • Median sales price stayed flat, adjusting by -1.1%, marginally down from $1,400,000 in 2022 to $1,385,000 in 2023.
  • Closing the year with a record-high price of $872/square foot shows that sellers in Miami's urban core consistently received top-dollar for their luxury condos in 2023.

Q4 2023 Price per sq. ft. up 4.1% to $870 – Median price down year-over-year

Moving against the overall Miami market trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and median price, this mainland grouping reported the following price stats in Q4 2023:

  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per square foot increased 4.1%, up from $836 in Q4 last year to $870 for the comparable quarter of 2023. (Fig. 1.1)
    • Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Price per square foot stayed flat, adjusting only 1.1%, marginally up from $860 in the previous quarter to $870 in Q4. (Fig. 1)
  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Median sales price decreased 7.2%, down from $1,380,000 in Q4 last year to $1,280,000 for the comparable quarter of 2023. (Fig. 1.1)
    • This difference in price per square foot and median sales price stats could possibly be due to sales of smaller luxury condos exceeding those of bigger units in the fourth quarter. Such smaller-sized condos tend to pack in more amenities, which then translates into a higher price per square foot, even as the median price declines.
  • A look at the 5-year snapshot of quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 3), shows that the price per square foot continued rising in one of its highest ranges in Q4 2023 – confirming great value and gains for sellers in this urban core.


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 3

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 3


Greater Downtown Miami: Days on Market Up Annually + YoY 

Days on market are up 9.5% on an annual basis and 27.6% 4Q23-over-4Q22

Partially in line with the overall Miami trend of an increase in 2023-over-2022 days and decline in year-over-year numbers in Q4 2023, Greater Downtown Miami reported the following days on market statistics:

  • 2023 vs 2022. Luxury condos spent six more days on the market compared to 2022, reporting a 9.5% increase in year-over-year DOM. (Fig. 1a)
  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Luxury condos spent 16 more days on the market compared to Q4 2022, reporting a 27.6% increase in year-over-year stats. (Fig. 1.1)
    • Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Luxury condos spent three more days on the market compared to Q3 2023, recording a 4.2% increase in quarter-over-quarter DOM. (Fig. 4)
  • What's worth noting is that luxury condos took about 2.5 months to sell (74 days in Q4 2023 and 69 days on average in 2023) in a market where listings would easily spend 100+ days pre-pandemic (Fig. 4). This suggests that buyer-seller communication remained positive and properties continued selling relatively quickly in the Greater Downtown area.


Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2023 – Fig. 4

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2023 – Fig. 4


Greater Downtown Miami: Luxury Condo Inventory Up – Market Healthy

Q4 2023 closed with 19 months of inventory

Echoing the overall Miami trend of an increase in year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter inventory, luxury condos in Greater Downtown Miami reported the following statistics:

  • On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased from 15 months in September 2023 to 19 months in December 2023, recording a 26.7% increase. (Fig. 5)
  • On a year-over-year basis, inventory was up from 17 months in December 2022 to 19 months by year-end, reporting an 11.8% increase.

With 19 months of inventory, the statistic closed above the 9-12 month range of an ideal market. While this would generally suggest a buyer's market, we still recommend reading into this as a balanced market, considering it is typical for more sellers to list ahead of high season (generally spring, as per historical trends) and levels are significantly lower compared to the 50+ months standard of the pre-pandemic market.

Further, as luxury housing experts, we expect inventory levels to increase moderately in 2024, considering several pre-construction condos are scheduled for completion in the Greater Downtown area. However, with steady demand and spring bringing buyers back to the market, we expect levels to stay within a healthy range throughout 2024.



Buyers looking to live closer to the bay in Edgewater or work in Brickell can search the Greater Downtown Miami area for available condos for sale.




Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2023 - Fig. 5

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2023 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Edgewater Market Trends (33132 and 33137)

Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023 Edgewater Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 6

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q4 2023

19

-34.5%

$1,820,000

24.7%

$954

2.7%

85

Q3 2023

29

$1,460,000

$929

104



Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022 Edgewater Luxury Condo Market Summary – Fig. 6.1

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q4 2023

19

-26.9%

$1,820,000

20.5%

$954

1.2%

85

Q4 2022

26

$1,510,000

$942

65



2023-over-2022 Edgewater Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 6a

Year

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

2023

102

-35.8%

$1,600,000

6.7%

$954

8.6%

81

2022

159

$1,499,000

$878

67



Edgewater Luxury Condo Stats: Annual + Q4 Sales Down

Q4 2023 sales are down 26.9% year-over-year — Higher than pre-pandemic quarters

Moving against the overall Miami market trend of flat year-over-year sales, Edgewater reported the following key sales statistics for Q4 2023:

  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales decreased 26.9% year-over-year, down from 26 in Q4 2022 to 19 for the same quarter 2023. (Fig. 6.1)
  • Sales in Q4 2023 were higher than any previous quarter noted in Q1 2021 and earlier – indicating great market health and progress in this bayfront market. (Fig. 7.1)
  • Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Sales declined 34.5% quarter-over-quarter, down from 29 in the previous quarter to 19 sales in Q4 2023. (Fig. 6)

Annual sales are down 35.8% – Negative trendline

Echoing the overall Miami market trend for sales, Edgewater reported the following annual sales statistics for 2023:

  • 2023 vs 2022. Sales declined 35.8%, down from 159 total sales in 2022 to 102 in 2023. (Fig. 6a)
  • Annual sales in 2023 (102) were significantly higher compared to 2019 (22 sales), 2018 (30 sales), and earlier – highlighting growth and expansion compared to pre-pandemic years. (Fig. 7.1)

Owing to a slower-paced winter market (typical of Miami's seasonal housing market), the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 7.2 stayed negative between Q3 and Q4 2023.


Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 7.1

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 7.1


Edgewater Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales Trendline - Fig. 7.2

Edgewater Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales Trendline - Fig. 7.2


Edgewater Prices Up + Most Expensive in Greater Downtown

Annual price/square foot is up 8.6% to $954 – Median price also up

Positively deviating from the overall Miami trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and median price, luxury condos in Edgewater reported the following annual price stats (Fig. 6a):

  • 2023 vs 2022. Price per square foot increased 8.6% year-over-year, up from $878 in 2022 to $954 in 2023.
    • Median sales price increased 6.7%, up from $1,499,000 in 2022 to $1,600,000 in 2023.
  • Leading annual price growth trends in the Greater Downtown area, Edgewater again reported the highest percentage gain in price per square foot – giving sellers excellent value for their luxury condo investments.
  • Just as in 2022, Edgewater closed 2023 as the most expensive neighborhood of Greater Downtown, recording a median price per square foot of $954.

Q4 2023 Price per sq. ft. up 4.1% to $870 – Median price down year-over-year

Partly following the overall Miami market trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and median price, luxury condos in Edgewater reported the following price stats in Q4 2023 (Fig. 6.1):

  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per square foot stayed flat, adjusting by 1.2%, marginally up from $942 in Q4 last year to $954 for the comparable quarter of 2023. (Fig. 6.1)
    • Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Price per square foot further stayed flat quarter-over-quarter, adjusting only 2.7%, up from $929 in the previous quarter to $954 in Q4. (Fig. 6)
    • A look at the 5-year snapshot of quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 8), shows that the price per square foot continued in the higher ranges in Q4 2023confirming that sellers received top value for their luxury condos in this bayfront neighborhood.
  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Median sales price increased 20.5%, up from $1,510,000 in Q4 last year to $1,820,000 in the same quarter of 2023. (Fig. 6.1)
  • Edgewater continued holding onto its title of the most expensive neighborhood in Greater Downtown, with its price per square foot at $954 and median sales price at $1,820,000.


Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 8

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 8

If you own in the Greater Downtown Miami area, including Edgewater, and are considering selling, get a complimentary assessment of your condo's value


Edgewater Days on Market: Up Annually + YoY in Q4 2023

Days on market are up 21% on an annual basis and 31% 4Q23-over-4Q22, but down from Q3

Partly in line with the overall Miami trend of an increase in 2023-over-2022 days and decline in year-over-year numbers in Q4 2023, Edgewater reported the following days on market statistics:

  • 2023 vs 2022. Luxury condos spent 14 more days on the market compared to 2022, reporting a 21% increase in year-over-year DOM. (Fig. 6a)
  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Luxury condos spent 20 more days on the market compared to Q4 2022, reporting a 31% increase in year-over-year stats. (Fig. 9)
  • Both the above stats, combined, show that luxury condos sold at a softer pace in this bayfront neighborhood than a year ago.


Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2023 – Fig. 9

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2023 – Fig. 9

 Edgewater Luxury Condo Inventory Up to Highest in Miami

Q4 2023 closed with 22 months of inventory

Consistent with the overall Miami trend of an increase in year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter inventory, luxury condos in Edgewater Miami reported the following statistics:

  • On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased from 18 months in September 2023 to 22 months in December 2023 – reporting a 22.2% increase. (Fig. 10)
  • On a year-over-year basis, inventory was up from 17 months in December last year to 22 months in December 2023 – reporting a 29.4% increase.
  • At 22 months, the statistic closed above the 9–12-month benchmark of an ideal market, creating a unique opportunity for buyers to take advantage of surplus inventory in an otherwise balanced market.



As a top seller's brokerage and agent in Edgewater, we can provide a free evaluation of your luxury condo and position it to attract competitive offers. You can call, chat, or e-mail us and an expert, local real estate agent will help you.




Edgewater Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2023 - Fig. 10

Edgewater Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2023 - Fig. 10

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last six months.


Brickell Market Trends (33129, 33130 and 33131)

Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023 Brickell Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 11

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q4 2023

51

-23.9%

$1,240,000

-8.1%

$846

-3.4%

68

Q3 2023

67

$1,350,000

$876

63



Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022 Brickell Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 11.1

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q4 2023

51

-3.8%

$1,240,000

-10.1%

$846

3.1%

68

Q4 2022

53

$1,380,000

$821

50

Annual 2023-over-2022 Brickell Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 11a

Year

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

2023

263

-32.7%

$1,325,000

-4.0%

$854

3.8%

69

2022

391

$1,380,000

$823



56


Brickell Sales Down: Annually + Q4 YoY

Q4 2023 Sales are down 3.8% year-over-year but higher than pandemic and pre-pandemic years

In contrast to the overall Miami market trend of flat year-over-year sales, Brickell reported the following key sales statistics for Q4 2023:

  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales declined 3.8% year-over-year, slightly down from 53 in Q4 last year to 51 for the same quarter 2023. (Fig. 11.1)
  • Sales in Q4 2023 were higher compared to any quarter recorded before Q1 2021 an incredible nod to market growth and expansion in this financial district. (Fig. 12.1)
  • Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Sales decreased 23.9% quarter-over-quarter, down from 67 in the previous quarter to 51 sales in Q4 2023. (Fig. 11)

Annual sales are down 32.7% – Negative trendline

Consistent with the overall market trend for sales, Brickell reported the following annual sales statistics for 2023:

  • 2023 vs 2022. Sales declined 32.7%, down from 391 total sales in 2022 to 263 in 2023. (Fig. 6a)
  • Annual sales in 2023 (263) were remarkably higher compared to 2019 (85 annual sales), 2018 (68 annual sales), and before – indicating notable expansion compared to pre-pandemic quarters. (Fig. 12.1)

With the market expectedly cooling over winter, the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 12.2 downshifted into a negative curve in Q4 2023 from its positive trajectory in Q3 2023.


Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 12.1

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 12.1


Brickell Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2

Brickell Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2


Brickell Price Trends: Mixed

Annual price/square foot is up 3.8% to $854 – Median price is down year-over-year

Deviating from the overall Miami trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and Median Price, luxury condos in Brickell reported the following annual price statistics (Fig. 11a):

  • 2023 vs 2022. Price per square foot increased 3.8% year-over-year, up from $823 in 2022 to $854 in 2023.
    • Median sales price, on the other hand, decreased by 4%, down from $1,380,000 in 2022 to $1,325,000 in 2023.
    • The inconsistency noted above in price per square foot and sales price trends could possibly be due to sales of smaller-sized condos with better amenities dominating the year. Generally, such smaller units tend to command a higher price per square foot.

Q4 2023 price per sq. ft. is up 3.1% to $846 – Median price down year-over-year

Moving in contrast to the overall Miami market trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and median price, luxury condos in Brickell reported the following price statistics in Q4 2023:

  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per square foot increased 3.1%, up from $821 in Q4 last year to $846 for the same quarter of 2023. (Fig. 11.1)
    • Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Price per square foot declined 3.4% quarter-over-quarter, down from $876 in the previous quarter to $846 in Q4 2023. (Fig. 11)
    • A look at the 5-year snapshot of quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 13), shows that the price per square foot again closed in the higher ranges in Q4 2023revealing that sellers consistently received excellent value for their luxury condo investments in this financial district.
  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Median sales price decreased 10.1%, down from $1,380,000 in Q4 last year to $1,240,000 in the comparable quarter of 2023. (Fig. 11.1)


Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 13

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 13


Brickell Days on Market: Up Annually + YoY in Q4 2023

Days on market are up 22% on annual basis and 37% 4Q23-over-4Q22

Only partly consistent with the overall Miami trend of an increase in 2023-over-2022 days and decline in year-over-year values in Q4 2023, Brickell reported the following days on market statistics:

  • 2023 vs 2022. Luxury condos spent 13 extra days on the market compared to 2022, reporting a 22% increase in year-over-year DOM. (Fig. 11a)
  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Luxury condos spent 18 more days on the market compared to Q4 last year, reporting a 37% increase in year-over-year stats. (Fig. 11.1)
  • Both the above stats, combined, demonstrate that buyers and sellers were slower to close on deals in Miami's financial hub compared to a year ago.


Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2023 - Fig. 14

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2023 - Fig. 14


Brickell Luxury Condo Inventory: Lowest in Greater Downtown

Q4 2023 closed with 17 months of inventory

Following the overall Miami trend of an increase in year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter inventory, luxury condos in Brickell reported the following statistics:

  • On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased from 13 months in September 2023 to 17 months in December 2023 – reporting a 30.8% increase. (Fig. 15)
  • On a year-over-year basis, inventory went up from 15 months in December last year to 17 months in December 2023 – reporting a 13.3% increase.
  • At 17 months, the statistic closed above the 9–12-month range of an ideal market, bringing buyers a window of opportunity to briefly take advantage of surplus choices in an otherwise balanced market.
  • Brickell closed 2023 with the second-lowest levels of inventory in Miami overall, only behind Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (9 months).


Brickell Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2023 - Fig. 15

Brickell Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2023 - Fig. 15

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last six months.


Downtown Miami Market Trends (33128, 33132 and 33136)

Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023 Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 16

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q4 2023

13

-51.9%

$1,575,000

31.3%

$762

6.0%

58

Q3 2023

27

$1,200,000

$719

63



Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022 Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 16.1

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q4 2023

13

8.3%

$1,575,000

33.5%

$762

4.7%

58

Q4 2022

12

$1,180,000

$728

69



Annual 2023-over-2022 Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 16a

Year

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

2023

80

-16.7%

$1,412,500

3.4%

$737

1.8%

62

2022

96

$1,366,000

$724

81



Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Sales: 2nd Strongest Market of 2023 in Miami Overall

Q4 2023 sales are up 8.3% year-over-year — Highest in a fourth quarter

Positively deviating from the overall market trend of flat year-over-year sales, Downtown Miami reported remarkable progress with the following key sales statistics for Q4 2023:

  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales improved 8.3% year-over-year, up from 12 in Q4 2022 to 13 for the same quarter 2023. (Fig. 16.1)
  • Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Sales declined 51.9% quarter-over-quarter, down from 27 in the previous quarter to 13 sales in Q4 2023. (Fig. 16)
  • Recording its highest-ever sales in a fourth quarter, Downtown Miami established itself as a market to watch with tremendous potential. (Fig. 7.1)

Annual sales are down 16.7% – Negative trendline

Consistent with the drop in overall Miami sales trend, Downtown Miami reported the following annual sales statistics for 2023:

  • 2023 vs 2022. Sales declined 16.7%, down from 96 total sales in 2022 to 80 in 2023. (Fig. 16a)
  • Annual sales in 2023 (80) were significantly higher compared to 2019 (15 annual sales), 2018 (12 annual sales), and any other previous year on record – highlighting the incredible change and expansion in market dynamics compared to pre-pandemic years. (Fig. 16.1)
  • Downtown Miami also emerged as one of the most resilient markets in Miami with only a -16.7% decline in 2023-over-2022 sales, only behind Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (-15%).

As momentum declined over the last quarter of 2023, the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 17.2 expectedly dropped into a negative trajectory in Q4 2023 from a positive curve in Q3 2023.


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 17.1

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 17.1


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 17.2

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 17.2


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends: Up

Annual price/sq. ft. is flat at $737 – Median price is up

Almost in line with the overall Miami trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and median price, luxury condos in Downtown Miami reported the following annual price stats (Fig. 16a):

  • 2023 vs 2022. Price per square foot stayed mostly flat, adjusting by 1.8% year-over-year, marginally up from $724 in 2022 to $737 in 2023.
    • Median sales price increased 3.4%, up from $1,366,000 in 2022 to $1,412,500 in 2023.
  • Like 2022, Downtown Miami remained the most affordable entry point into Miami's luxury condo market for buyers in 2023 (on a price per square foot basis).

Q4 2023 price per sq. ft. up 4.7% to $762 – Median price also up year-over-year

Moving against the overall Miami market trend of a flat year-over-year price per square foot and median price, luxury condos in Downtown Miami reported the following positive price stats in Q4 2023:

  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per square foot increased 4.7%, up from $728 in Q4 last year to $762 in the same quarter of 2023. (Fig. 16.1)
    • Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Price per square foot increased 6% quarter-over-quarter, up from $719 in the previous quarter to $762 in Q4 2023. (Fig. 16)
    • A look at the 5-year snapshot of quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 18), reveals that the price per square foot continued to trend in the higher ranges in Q4 2023giving sellers great value for their luxury condo investments.
  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Median sales price increased 33.5%, up from $1,180,000 in Q4 last year to $1,575,000 in the same quarter of 2023. (Fig. 16.1)
  • Downtown led Q4 2023 price growth trends in Greater Downtown, reporting the highest percentage gains in year-over-year price per sq. ft.


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 18

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 18


Downtown Miami Days on Market: Fastest-selling Market of Q4 2023 in Greater Downtown 

Days on market were down 23% on annual basis and 16% 4Q23-over-4Q22

Partly in sync with the overall Miami trend of an increase in 2023-over-2022 days and decline in year-over-year numbers in Q4 2023, Downtown Miami reported the following days on market statistics:

  • 2023 vs 2022. Luxury condos spent 19 fewer days on the market compared to 2022, reporting a 23% decrease in year-over-year DOM. (Fig. 16a)
  • Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Luxury condos spent 11 fewer days on the market compared to Q4 2022, reporting a 16% decrease in year-over-year stats. (Fig. 19)
    • Luxury condos in Downtown Miami took about two months (58 days) to sell in Q4 2023 – emerging as the fastest-selling market of Greater Downtown Miami.


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2023 - Fig. 19

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2023 - Fig. 19


Downtown Miami Inventory: Down YoY

Q4 2023 closed with 20 months of inventory

In contrast to the overall Miami trend of an increase in year-over-year as well as quarter-over-quarter inventory, luxury condos in Downtown Miami reported the following statistics:

  • On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased from 16 months in September 2023 to 20 months in December 2023 – reporting a 25% increase. (Fig. 20)
  • On a year-over-year basis, inventory went down from 26 months in December last year to 20 months in December 2023 – reporting a 23% decline.
  • At 20 months, the statistic closed above the 9–12-month mark of an ideal market – bringing the market to favor buyers for the interim, before high season (spring 2024) chips away a chunk again, bringing the market into a more balanced position.


Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2023 - Fig. 20

Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2023 - Fig. 20

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last six months.


Q4 2023 Greater Downtown Miami Market Conclusion

As predicted, Greater Downtown's luxury condo market closed 2023 on a high note. With four times the total annual sales noted in pre-pandemic years, the market has expanded without a doubt.

Echoing the overall Miami sales trend of lower 2023-over-2022 sales, Greater Downtown Miami too reported a decline across the board. In Q4 2023, specifically, momentum declined in contrast to the overall Miami market trend – except in Downtown Miami, which emerged as the only Greater Downtown neighborhood to report an increase in year-over-year sales. Downtown Miami emerged as the most popular neighborhood of 2023 (on an annual basis) as well as Q4 2023 by reporting consistent growth.

Much like the overall market, the 12-month sales trendline went negative across the board.

In terms of prices, all Greater Downtown Miami under review fared rather well, mostly offering gains in year-over-year price per square foot when compared to the flat trends noted in the overall Miami market. Luxury condos in Downtown Miami were found to offer the best value to sellers out of all three sub-markets under review – posting the highest percentage increase in year-over-year price per square foot for Q4 2023. On the other hand, Edgewater remained the most expensive of all three sub-markets.

In Q4 2023, the days on market were mostly up across the board, in contrast to the decline noted in year-over-year values evident in the overall Miami market. Luxury condos took about two months (58 days) to sell in Downtown, making it the fastest-selling market of Q4 2023.

As the market took its seasonal breather, inventory expectedly increased across the board, with Downtown Miami being the only exception.

With a higher-paced first quarter ahead of us, as real estate experts, we expect the following to influence market direction and trends:

  • We expect our evolving landscape of high-end condos with world-class amenities to attract more ultra-high-net-worth and global elite players such as Jeff Bezos and Lionel Messi to our sunny shores.
  • We expect our burgeoning economy to become a greater draw for high-net-worth buyers from across the globe, as Miami becomes an international hotspot for banking, trade, and wealth management.
  • We expect more escapees from high-tax states such as New York and California to continue to arrive in big numbers, given our prominent savings in wealth, property, and inheritance taxes.
  • We expect our foreign buyer share to grow further, as Canadians play a more prominent part in our (real estate) investment landscape.
  • We expect a growing pool of investors to be drawn out by our newest batch of short-term-rental-ready, pre-construction condo offerings such as the NoMad Wynwood ResidencesORA by Casa Tua, or 501 First.
  • We expect inventory levels to increase moderately in 2024 as mortgage rates drop to a more palatable range and owners in dated buildings (20 years and older) look to sell as repair costs skyrocket with our new laws. Still, with steady demand, we expect inventory levels to stay within a manageable range and not rebound to pre-pandemic levels.


Q4 2023 Trends

Overall Miami

GDM

Edgewater

Brickell

Downtown

Sales

Flat

Down

Down

Down

Up

Sales Trendline

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Negative

Price/Sq. Ft.

Flat

Up

Flat

Up

Up

Days on Market

Down

Up

Up

Up

Down

Inventory

Up

Up

Up

Up

Down



2023 Annual Trends

Overall Miami

GDM

Edgewater

Brickell

Downtown

Sales

Down

Down

Down

Down

Down

Price/Sq. Ft.

Flat

Up

Up

Up

Flat

Days on Market

Up

Up

Up

Up

Down


Do you want more data and Miami market analyses? Subscribe to our blog on the top right corner to receive the latest market news in your inbox and share our blog.

And if you have questions or comments about the stats, or are interested in browsing the market, contact Sep at sniakan@blackbookproperties.com or call 305-725-0566.


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