The luxury condo market in Miami Beach closed Q3 2023 with stable growth, as it matched the previous year's levels and posted its second-highest sales in a third quarter. Bucking seasonal trends yet again, this grouping of beachfront neighborhoods recorded incredible momentum in a quarter otherwise poised to pace down after a high-pitched Q2 (as noted from historical trends).

With our annual and Q4 2023 numbers in for Miami's luxury condo market, it's crystal clear that the market has matured to embrace its new growth thresholds set in the record-setting year of 2021. Closing 2023 on an exceptionally high note, the market recorded its second-highest sales in a fourth quarter, along with higher annual sales than any pre-pandemic year.

This, paired with moderate price appreciation and flat year-over-year inventory, reveals we have a healthy market capable of sustaining the historical shifts recorded in 2021 and poised for stable growth in the new year.

A closer look at neighborhood stats revealed Coconut Grove & Coral Gables as one of the hottest luxury condo markets of 2023 (overall) and Q4 2023. Not only did this previously modest market lead sales growth annually and in Q4 2023, but also offered maximum price gains to sellers in a 2023-over-2022 analysis. The dynamic pairing also established itself as the fastest-selling market of 2023 and reported the lowest levels of inventory – making it a market to watch in 2024.

In this report, you'll find a more detailed analysis of the annual and quarterly data on how prices, days on market, and inventory responded to continued buyer demand and more in our full-length Annual and Q4 2023 Miami Luxury Condo Market Report.

This luxury condo market report only includes data for properties priced $1 million and above and covers the neighborhoods of Greater Downtown Miami (including Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown), Miami Beach (inclusive of South Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach, and Fisher Island), as well as Coral Gables and Coconut Grove.

Annual 2023 – Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Highlights

• Total annual sales for 2023 are down 31.5% in the 2023-over-2022 analysis but still, exceed pre-pandemic levels.
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables, plus Downtown Miami, emerged as the most resilient markets of 2023 – reporting the lowest decline in 2023-over-2022 sales.
• Overall price/sq. ft. flat. It reveals overall market strength as prices peak at $950/sq. ft.
• Fisher Island continued as the most expensive neighborhood of 2023 with a median price of $1,932/sq. ft., followed by Surfside & Bal Harbour at $1,337/sq. ft.
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables offered maximum value to sellers with the highest price per sq. ft. increase YoY (11%), closely followed by Edgewater (9%).
• Days on Market (DOM) increased 5.9% in the 2023-over-2022 analysis, as luxury condos took 72 days to sell on average.
• Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (combined) emerged as the fastest-selling market of 2023 (58 days) of all Miami neighborhoods, followed by Downtown Miami (62 days).
• Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (combined) continued reporting the lowest year-end inventory (9 months) of all Miami neighborhoods.
• Edgewater reported the highest year-end inventory (22 months) of all Miami neighborhoods.
• 2023 closed as a buyer's market in theory but offered equal advantage to buyers and sellers.

Q4 2023 – Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Highlights

• Q4 2023 sales were flat year-over-year – still, the second-highest 4th quarter sales in recent history.
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables emerged as Miami's most popular neighborhood in Q4 2023 – leading sales growth with a 28% increase year-over-year.
• The 12-month sales trendline shifted from positive in Q3 to negative in Q4 2023.
• Overall prices reported positive trends – median sales price stayed flat at $1.65M, while the price per square foot peaked at the second-highest-ever at $951/sq. ft.
• Fisher Island maintained its title as the "most expensive neighborhood" in Q4 2023, with a median price of $1,854/sq. ft.
• Surfside & Bal Harbour luxury condos offered maximum value to sellers with the highest percentage gains (55%) in year-over-year price per square foot.
• Luxury condo buildings dated 2000-2014 remained the most popular with the highest sales volume (117) of all three segments (new construction to classic).
• Sellers received maximum return on investment (ROI) for condos built before 2000.
• Days on Market went down 3% year-over-year.
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables emerged as Miami's fastest-selling market, with luxury condos taking only 41 days to sell.
• Inventory is up 5.9% year-over-year to 18 months.
• Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (combined) again reported the lowest months of inventory (9 months) of all Miami neighborhoods under review.

Table of Contents

1. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales
3. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
4. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
5. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends by Year
6. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
7. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
8. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
9. Conclusion
10. Where does the Miami Luxury Condo Market go from here?

1. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends – Stable Growth

Q4 2023 Sales flat year-over-year – Second-highest in a fourth quarter – Negative trendline

Recording the second-highest sales in a fourth quarter, Miami's luxury condo market yet again exceeded all market expectations. Considering the market was poised to wind down over the winter (as it does every third and fourth quarter of the year) and normalize after dust settling from a pandemic-triggered boom, Q4 2023 still outperformed all other comparable quarters from previous years (except for Q4 2021's record-high). Thereby, reinforcing the strength and resilience of Miami's luxury housing market as a key investment market to watch.

Quarterly Sales Comparison — Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Sales, though relatively flat, increased marginally by 1.1%, up from 282 in the previous year to 285 in Q4 2023. (Fig. 1.1a)
• Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Sales declined 21.7%, down from 364 in the previous quarter to 285 in Q4 2023. (Fig. 1.1)

Looking into the monthly sales chart below (Fig. 1.3), volumes were a mixed bag compared to 2022:

• Sales in October 2023 closed at 99 compared to the previous year's 119 sales for the same month.
• November closed with 100 luxury condo sales, higher compared to 96 in the same month of 2022.
• December closed with 86 sales – flat compared to the previous year's 86 sales for the same month.
  
  

Annual sales are down 31.5% versus 2022, up 103.5% versus 2020

With total sales higher than 2020 and any pre-pandemic year, 2023 closed on a strong note, demonstrating how Miami's luxury housing market has matured and expanded permanently.

Annual Sales Analysis – Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market

• 2023 vs 2022. Sales declined 31.5%, from 2,123 annual sales in 2022 to 1,455 in 2023. (Fig. 1.1.1)
• 2023 vs 2020. Sales soared 103.5%, up from 715 annual sales in 2020 to 1,455 in 2023. (Fig. 1.1.1a)
• Demonstrating exceptional growth compared to the pandemic and pre-market dynamic, annual sales in 2023 (1,455) closed much higher compared to 2020, 2019 (718 sales), 2018 (692 sales), and so on. (Fig. 1.2)

Overall Miami Quarterly Luxury Condo Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 1.2

Overall Miami Monthly Luxury Condo Sales Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2023 - Fig. 1.3

With the market expectedly pacing down over early winter (a typical shift for Miami's seasonal housing market), the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 1.4 down-shifted from a positive curve in Q3 to a negative trajectory in Q4 2023. While this would generally indicate a market slowdown for the next quarter, as luxury condo experts, we expect the market to pick up pace during the first quarter of 2024 in anticipation of the upcoming high season in spring (as it does every year in our cyclical market).

Overall Miami 12-Month Luxury Condo Sales with Trendline - Fig. 1.4

2. Annual & Q4 2023 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales

Annual Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison 2023-over-2022 - Fig. 1.5

Annual Neighborhood Sales Trends - 2023-over-2022 

• Winners: Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (-15%) and Downtown Miami (-17%) emerged as the most resilient neighborhoods of 2023, reporting the lowest percentage impact on year-over-year sales.
• Down: Other Miami neighborhoods reporting a decrease in annual sales:
• Surfside & Bal Harbour (-28%)
• Brickell (-33%)
• South Beach (-34%)
• Fisher Island (-35%)
• Edgewater (-36%)
• Sunny Isles Beach (-36%)
• Mid/North Beach (-37%)

Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison 4Q 23-over-4Q 22 - Fig. 1.5.1

Q4 2023 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Sales Trends (Fig. 1.5.1)

• Winner: Coconut Grove & Coral Gables reported the highest percentage growth (28%) in year-over-year sales.
• Up: Other Miami neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year sales:
• Surfside and Bal Harbour (22%)
• Downtown Miami (8%)
• South Beach (4%)
• Down: These Miami neighborhoods reported a decrease in year-over-year sales:
• Brickell (-4%)
• Sunny Isles Beach (-4%)
• Mid/North Beach (-8%)
• Fisher Island (-17%)
• Edgewater (-27%)

More in-depth analysis and details are available in dedicated reports for Greater Downtown Miami, Miami Beach, and the Barrier Islands, plus Coral Gables & Coconut Grove.

3. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Prices Flat - Annual + YoY

Annual price/sq. ft. at an all-time high of $950 – Median price flat

Highlighting how sellers continued to receive top-dollar for their luxury condos throughout 2023, the annual price per square foot closed at a record-high of $950.

Annual median price trends – Overall Miami luxury condo market (Fig. 1.1.1 & 1.1.1a)

• 2023 vs 2022. Price per square foot stayed mostly flat, reporting a marginal increase of 1.9%, up from $932 in 2022 to $950 in 2023.
• Median sales price stayed mostly flat, too, reporting a marginal adjustment of -1.1%, down from $1,688,166 in 2022 to $1,670,000 in 2023.
• 2023 vs 2020. Price per square foot increased by 23.4%, up from $770 in 2020 to $950 in 2023.
• Median sales price too increased by 2.8%, up from $1,625,000 in 2020 to $1,670,000 in 2023.

Q4 2023 Price per sq. ft. flat at $951 – Second-highest-ever – Median price flat year-over-year

Closing with the second-highest price per square foot on record (Fig. 2.1), Q4 2023 confirms that positive price trends continued throughout the year, fueled by steady demand.

Q4 2023 Median price trends – Overall Miami luxury condo market (Fig. 1.1 & 1.1a)

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Price per square foot stayed mostly flat, increasing marginally by +0.5%, up from $947 in Q4 last year to $951 for the same quarter of 2023 (Fig. 1.1a).
• Q3 2023 vs Q4 2023. In quarter-over-quarter, the price per square foot remained mostly flat, too, increasing marginally by 1.9%, up from $933 in Q3 2023 to $951 in Q4 (Fig. 1.1).
• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Median sales price also stayed mostly flat, adjusting marginally by -0.3% year-over-year, slightly down from $1,655,000 in Q4 last year to $1,650,000 in the comparable quarter of 2023 (Fig. 1.1a).
• A look at the 5-year snapshot of quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 2.1), shows that the price per square foot again closed in one of its highest ranges in Q4 2023. This shows that sellers continued receiving strong offers, with most deals yielding gains.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 2.1

4. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Price per Square Foot & Sales Price

Annual Neighborhood Price Trends - 2023-over-2022 

Median price per square foot (Fig. 2.2)

• Winner: Fisher Island remained the most expensive neighborhood in Miami, fetching a median price of $1,932/sq. ft.
• Winners: Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (combined) reported the highest percentage gain (11%) in annual price per square foot ($840), closely followed by Edgewater with a 9% gain ($954/sq. ft.).
• Up: Other neighborhoods posting an increase in annual price per square foot:
• Brickell – $854/sq. ft. (4%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour – $1,337 (3%)
• Flat: Downtown Miami (2%), Fisher Island (2%), and Sunny Isles Beach (0%) reported a negligible change in their 2023-over-2022 price per square foot.
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decline in annual price per square foot:
• Mid/North Beach - $1,032/sq. ft. (-3%)
• South Beach - $1,198/sq. ft. (-6%)

Miami Neighborhood 2023-over-2022 Median Price per Sq. Ft. Comparison - Fig. 2.2

Median sales price (Fig. 2.3)

• Winner: Sunny Isles Beach reported the highest percentage gains (10%) in annual median sales price ($2 million).
• Winner: As always, Fisher Island reported the highest median sales price for 2023 at $5.5 million – maintaining its position as the most expensive neighborhood in Miami.
• Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in annual median sales price:
• Edgewater – $1.6 million (7%)
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables – $1.8 million (3%)
• Mid/North Beach – $1.7 million (3%)
• Downtown Miami – $1.4 million (3%)
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decline in annual median sales price:
• Brickell – $1.3 million (-4%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour – $2.7 million (-4%)
• Fisher Island – $5.5 million (-15%)
• South Beach – $1.7 million (-18%)

Miami Neighborhood 2023-over-2022 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.3

Q4 2023 - Year-over-Year Neighborhood Price Trends

Median price per square foot (Fig. 2.2.1)

• Winner: Fisher Island retained its title as the most expensive neighborhood in Miami, closing Q4 2023 at a median price of $1,854/sq. ft.
• Winner: Surfside & Bal Harbour (collectively) reported the highest percentage gains (55%) in its year-over-year price per square foot ($1,592).
• Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year price per square foot:
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables – $801/sq. ft. (11%)
• Downtown Miami – $762/sq. ft. (5%)
• Brickell – $846/sq. ft. (3%)
• Flat: Luxury condos in Edgewater reported a negligible change (1%) in their year-over-year price per square foot ($954).
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decrease in year-over-year price per square foot:
• South Beach – $1,183/sq. ft. (-5%)
• Sunny Isles Beach – $941/sq. ft. (-7%)
• Mid/North Beach – $922/sq. ft. (-18%)
• Fisher Island – $1,854/sq. ft. (-28%)

Miami Neighborhood 4Q23-over-4Q22 Median Price per Square Foot. Comparison - Fig. 2.2.1

Median sales price (Fig. 2.3.1)

• Winner: Downtown Miami reported the highest percentage growth (33%) in year-over-year median sales price ($1.6 million).
• Winner: Fisher Island continued leading as Miami's most premium zip code, with the highest median sales price of $4.3 million.
• Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year median sales price:
• Edgewater – $1.8 million (21%)
• Sunny Isles Beach – $2.3 million (20%)
• Surfside & Bal Harbour – $2.5 million (13%)
• Mid-North Beach – $1.6 million (10%)
• Flat: Coconut Grove & Coral Gables reported a negligible change (0%) in their year-over-year median sales price ($1.6 million).
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decrease in annual median sales price:
• Brickell – $1.2 million (-10%)
• South Beach – $1.7 million (-18%)
• Fisher Island – $4.3 million (-56%)

Miami Neighborhood 4Q23-over-4Q22 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.3.1

5. Q4 2023 Overall Miami Sales Price Trends by Building Year

Below is a detailed analysis of how Miami luxury condo buildings performed in Q4 2023 based on the age of construction of the condo building, categorized as new construction buildings (2015-2023), buildings built from 2000-2014, and pre-2000 buildings.

• New construction buildings reported higher sales compared to Q4 2020 and before, plus a good year-over-year value with a 6.2% price gain.
• Buildings dated 2000-2014 continued as the most popular with the highest sales volume (117) of all three segments under review, plus flat year-over-year value with a price of $913/sq. ft.
• Condos built before 2000 reported a 50% jump in year-over-year sales and offered the best value to sellers in Q4 2023 with prices closing at an all-time high of $922/sq. ft.

Miami New Construction Condos Built 2015-2023

With 84 sales in Q4 2023, this newly built segment reported a 16.8% decline in year-over-year sales and a 27.6% decrease in quarter-over-quarter numbers (Fig. 3.1). However, following the positive market mood, volumes in this freshly-built luxury condo segment reported a significant increase compared to Q4 2020 and pre-pandemic years, indicating steady demand.

Note: Anecdotally, we are seeing exceptionally high demand for pre-construction luxury condos. Most projects are selling out before shovels hit the ground. Many of these pre-construction sales are not recorded in centralized databases and thus are not included in our quarterly sales data and reports. 

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales for Buildings Dated 2015-2023 - Fig. 3.1

Fig. 3.2 reveals this newly built segment closed the quarter at a record price of $1,254/sq. ft. – touching an all-time high this fourth quarter. The price per square foot for this newly built segment increased 6.2% year-over-year and 26.8% quarter-over-quarter (from $989/sq. ft.).

Miami New Construction Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot (Buildings Built 2015-2023) - Fig. 3.2

Miami Luxury Condos Built 2000-2014

Luxury condos built 2000-2014 reported a 6.4% decline in year-over-year sales, down from 125 sales in Q4 2022 to 117 sales for the same quarter 2023. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, sales dropped 33.5%.

Still, much like in Q2 and Q3 2023, buildings built between 2000-2014 remained the most popular among buyers in Q4 2023 – reporting the highest sales volume of all three segments under review.

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.3

Fig. 3.4 shows this segment (built 2000-2014) closed the quarter at a relatively higher price of $913/sq. ft. – giving sellers good value for their luxury properties. The price per square foot in this segment decreased only 3.8% quarter-over-quarter but stayed flat year-over-year with a marginal increase of 0.5%.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.4

Miami Luxury Condos Built Before 2000

With 84 sales, this classic segment (built pre-2000) reported a 50% increase in year-over-year volume and flat quarter-over-quarter sales with a marginal drop of 2.4% (Fig. 3.5). Echoing the overall market energy and volume noted in the freshly built segment above, this classic segment too adhered to the newfound growth thresholds of the overall market, reporting higher sales compared to pandemic and pre-pandemics quarters.

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.5

Fig. 3.6 below shows the price per square foot increased 11.5% quarter-over-quarter and 9.9% year-over-year for luxury condos built before 2000. Closing Q4 2023 at a peak price of $922/sq. ft., luxury condo sellers in this classic segment received the best year-over-year value to date of all three segments under review.

Overall Miami Luxury Condos Price per Sq. Ft.  (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.6

6. Overall Miami Luxury Condos - Days on Market Up Annually, Down YoY

Days on Market up 5.9% on an annual basis, down 3% 4Q23-over-4Q22

Even though luxury condos sold slower than in 2022, a decline in year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter numbers for Q4 2023 indicates that buyer-seller communication stayed positive. A sign of great market health – luxury condos took only about two months (66 days) to sell in Q4 2023.

Annual Days on Market Analysis – Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market

• 2023 vs 2022. Luxury condos spent four more days on the market compared to 2022 – a 5.9% increase in year-over-year DOM. (Fig. 1.1.1)
• 2023 vs 2020. Luxury condos spent 55 fewer days on the market compared to 2020 – reporting a 43.3% decline in DOM. (Fig. 1.1.1a)

Q4 2023 Days on Market Analysis – Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market

• Q4 2023 vs Q4 2022. Luxury condos spent two fewer days on the market compared to Q4 2022 – a 3% decline in year-over-year DOM. (Fig. 1.1a)
• Q4 2023 vs Q3 2023. Luxury condos spent nine fewer days on the market compared to Q3 2023 – a 12% drop in quarter-over-quarter DOM. (Fig. 1.1)

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2023 - Fig. 4.1

7. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market

Annual Neighborhood Days on Market Trends (Fig. 4.2) – 2023-over-2022

• Winner: Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (combined) remained the fastest-selling market of Miami in 2023 – maintaining its position from 2021. Luxury condos took only 58 days to sell in this pairing, up 40% compared to 2022.
• Down: Miami neighborhoods reporting a decline in their annual median days on market for luxury condos:
• Downtown Miami – 62 days (-23%)
• Surfside & Bal Harbour – 77 days (-11%)
• Sunny Isles Beach – 83 days (-6%)
• Flat: Mid-North Beach reported a negligible change (1%) in its 2023-over-2022 days on market, as luxury condos took 70 days to sell on average.
• Up: Miami neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year days on market:
• South Beach – 76 days (9%)
• Edgewater – 81 days (21%)
• Brickell – 69 days (22%)
• Fisher Island – 153 days (123%)

Miami Neighborhood 2023-over-2022 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.2

Q4 2023 – Neighborhood Days on Market Trends (Fig. 4.2.1)

• Winner: Luxury condos in the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove & Coral Gables spent only 41 days on the market – making it the fastest-selling neighborhood of Q4 2023 with a 45% decline in year-over-year stats.
• Down: Other neighborhoods reporting a decline in year-over-year days on market:
• Mid-North Beach – 54 days (-56%)
• South Beach – 69 days (-20%)
• Downtown Miami – 58 days (-16%)
• Sunny Isles Beach – 75 days (-3%)
• Up: Neighborhoods reporting an increase in their year-over-year days on market:
• Surfside and Bal Harbour – 85 days (22%)
• Edgewater – 85 days (32%)
• Brickell – 68 days (37%)
• Fisher Island – 259 days (877%)

Miami Neighborhood 4Q23-Over-4Q22 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.2.1

8. Luxury Condo Inventory at 18 months – Balanced Market Continues

Q4 2023 Closed with 18 Months of Inventory

As expected, inventory increased towards the tail-end of 2023 (Fig. 5.1). Given that Miami's luxury condo market is seasonal, it is quite normal for levels to increase by year-end for two main reasons: first, more sellers tend to list their units in anticipation of high season, and second, the fourth quarter is traditionally slower-paced (as indicated by historical data).

Closing the year with 18 months of inventory, levels closed above the 9-12-month range of an ideal market – indicating a buyer's market. However, as real estate experts, we recommend reading this as a balanced market, owing to anecdotal evidence from our day-to-day interactions paired with the fact that inventory is only slightly higher compared to a year ago. This means buyers get more flexibility with several options matching their price point, while sellers can benefit from competitive pricing.

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased from 14 months in September 2023 to 18 months in December – reporting an increase of 28.6%.
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory went up from 17 months in December 2022 to 18 months by year-end – reporting a 5.9% increase. (Fig. 5.1).

With the high season due in spring and steady demand (observed anecdotally), as real estate experts we expect inventory to normalize over the next two quarters – resulting in a balanced market for 2024 as well.

Overall Miami Months of Luxury Condo Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2023 - Fig. 5.1

A balanced market has about 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as the number of active listings plus the number of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last six months.

9. Miami Overall Luxury Condo Market - Annual & Q4 2023 Conclusion

A balanced market continues with stable sales, moderate price gains, and relatively lower levels of inventory.

Considering any booming market must eventually normalize, it was expected that 2023 would report slower sales than previous years and Q4 2023 to close on a softer note than the previous year. 

However, bucking all national trends and most market predictions, sales in Q4 2023 nudged past those from a year ago to post the second-highest volumes noted in a fourth quarter. Annual numbers too, though softer than the outlier year of 2021, reported more than double the volume recorded in any pre-pandemic year – showing that Miami's luxury housing market has expanded to set new performance benchmarks.

On an annual basis, most Miami neighborhoods under review posted a decline in 2023-over-2022 sales. However, the urban core remained strong, with Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (-15%) and Downtown Miami (-17%) leading in popularity.

With sales expectedly pacing down over winter, the 12-month sales trendline shifted gears from a positive in the previous quarter to a negative trajectory in Q4 2023. While this usually indicates a soft opening for the next quarter, as luxury real estate experts, we expect a strong opening for 2024, considering the high season is around the corner and the general market enthusiasm.

In our overall price watch, the price per square foot remained mostly flat, reporting moderate gains in a year-over-year review of Q4 2023 as well as the 2023-over-2022 review. Offering exceptional value to sellers, the price per square foot in Miami peaked at an all-time high of $950/sq. ft. in 2023, and its second-highest levels on record in Q4 2023.

Buildings built between 2000-2014 remained the most popular choice among buyers, again reporting the highest sales volume of all three segments under review (newly built to classic). However, the segment of luxury condos built before 2000 afforded the highest value to sellers with a 10% gain in year-over-year prices. This appreciation in classic condo buildings is likely due to developers purchasing condos due for repairs (and their 30-year recertification) as part of bulk buyouts.

Buyers and sellers were generally quick to agree in 2023, considering luxury condos took only 2.5 months (72 days) to sell on average. Even in a 4Q23-over-4Q22 analysis, luxury condos sold in just 66 days – showing great market health.

As predicted, owing to a seasonal slowdown plus sellers listing in anticipation of high season, luxury condo inventory increased quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year in Q4 2023 – closing the year with 18 months of inventory.

With continued demand from domestic and foreign buyers, as luxury condo experts we expect the market to stay healthy and record stable growth going into 2024. And, while current inventory levels may suggest a buyer-friendly market, we expect the field to level out as we hit high season – allowing buyers and sellers equal value in Miami's mature luxury housing market.

For buyers or investors interested in browsing the kind of inventory available on the market, you can search for all currently listed luxury condos for sale in Miami in our browser or contact us directly.

10. Miami's Luxury Condo Market Prediction 2024: Where Does the Market Go From Here?

Headed into 2024, and based on early January data, we anticipate the following factors to influence the luxury condo market in Miami:

Growing economy: It's no secret that Miami has hit the international spotlight for banking, trade, and wealth management, given the number of big businesses that have moved to Miami over the past three years. Add to that FIFA moving its headquarters to the city ahead of the 2026 World Cup, Amazon looking for office space on our shores, and more tech startups setting up shop here, leading to an increase in employment and demand for luxury housing.

New wave of high-net-worth investors. With the likes of Jeff Bezos and Lionel Messi spending lavishly on their Miami homes, we expect more and more people to be drawn to our evolving landscape. Especially as more luxury new construction condos, such as the short-term rental-ready Natiivo and Gale Residences or branded Aston Martin Residences, and more, are scheduled for completion in 2024.

Tax saver's haven. With substantial savings in wealth tax, property tax, and inheritance tax, it's no wonder high-net-worth individuals are seeking our sunny shores. New Yorkers, Los Angelenos, and Chicagoans fleeing their respective states are expected to continue to fuel demand into 2024.

Foreign buyers and safe investment. We expect the lure of a Miami home as a safe investment vehicle (compared to back home) to continue bringing back Latin American buyers, who invested about $5.1 billion in South Florida housing in 2023 alone.

Relief from mortgage rates and increase in inventory. Considering that most market analysts have predicted mortgage rates to fall under the 6-7% range in 2024, we expect to see more sellers re-enter the market. Pairing that with a good amount of pre-construction condos set for delivery in 2024 and 20-plus-years condo owners looking to exit before they are hit with heavy repairs or recertification bills, we expect inventory levels to increase moderately in the new year. 

However, we also expect continued demand from buyers drawn to our international-grade and active lifestyle to keep those levels in check by closing on their favorite spot by the ocean or investment property in 2024.

If you'd like more details on the data in our exclusive Condo Blackbook quarterly luxury condo market reports, please send us an email or call us anytime.

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