Bucking all national and seasonal trends for luxury housing, Miami's luxury condo market reported phenomenal growth in Q3-2023. Reporting the second-highest sales volume in a third quarter ever, the market showed no signs of slowing down even as our high season was expected to wind down after a high-pitched second quarter.

Overall, sales reported exceptional momentum in Q3-2023 – just shy of touching the astronomical heights of Q3-2021, which was part of the pandemic-year frenzy. For this quarter, prices reported stable gains, offering sellers fantastic value for their luxury properties in Miami. As a result of things settling down post-high season, the days on market nudged higher, and inventory closed at 14 months, reporting only a marginal increase over the previous quarter.

As per our neighborhood-wide analysis, Fisher Island emerged as the most popular market for buyers in Q3-2023 – closing with the highest year-over-year increase (167%) in sales. The exclusive island neighborhood also maintained its status as the most expensive zip code in Miami (and South Florida) with a price of $1,988/sq. ft.

On the other hand, Downtown Miami continued as the best entry point for buyers into luxury condos, affording the lowest price per square foot ($711) of all the neighborhoods under review in Q3-2023.

With only 14 months of inventory, Miami's luxury condo market closed Q3-2023 as a balanced market, offering buyers and sellers a level playing field in terms of value and opportunity.

Read on for a detailed analysis of the quarterly data on how sales, prices, days on market, and inventory responded to strong buyer demand plus more in our full-length Q3-2023 Miami Luxury Condo Market Report:

This luxury condo market report only includes data for properties priced $1 million and above and covers the neighborhoods of Greater Downtown Miami (including Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown), Miami Beach (inclusive of South Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach, and Fisher Island), as well as Coral Gables and Coconut Grove.

Q3-2023: Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Highlights

Sales:

• Second-highest 3rd quarter sales in recent history. 
• Sales were 8.9% higher compared to the previous year's above-average stats (354 in Q3-23 vs 325 in Q3-22).
• Fisher Island emerged as Miami's most popular neighborhood in Q3, leading sales growth with a 167% year-over-year increase.

Prices:

• Overall prices reported positive trends year-over-year. Price per square foot stayed flat, while median sales price increased 4.7% to $1.6M.
• Price per square foot closed at $933/square foot.
• Fisher Island maintained its title as the "most expensive neighborhood" in Q3-2023, posting a median price of $1,988/square foot.
• Luxury condos in Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (collectively) continued offering maximum value to sellers with the highest percentage gains (15%) in year-over-year price per sq. ft.

Building Type:

• Luxury condos built in 2000-2014 as well as before 2000 (mid and classic condos) reported an increase in year-over-year sales. All three segments (including condos built in 2015 and onwards) reported higher quarterly volumes compared to pre-pandemic years (2020 and earlier).
• Condo buildings built in 2000-2014 reported the highest year-over-year sales growth and the highest sales volume of all three segments.
• Sellers received maximum return on investment (ROI) for new construction condos built 2000-2014.

Days on Market:

• Days on market was up 21% year-over-year.
• Downtown Miami emerged as Miami's fastest-selling market, with luxury condos taking only 54 days to sell.

Inventory: 

• Inventory was up 55.5% year-over-year to 14 months.
• Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (combined) again reported the lowest months of inventory (9 months) of all the Miami neighborhoods under our review, closely followed by South Beach plus Surfside and Bal Harbour (12 months each).

Table of Contents

1. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales
3. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
4. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
5. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Price Trends by Building Year
6. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
7. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
8. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
9. Conclusion
10. Where does the Miami Luxury Condo Market go from Here?

1. Overall Luxury Condo Sales Up YoY

Sales are up 8.9% year-over-year — 2nd-highest in a Q3 — 12-month sales trendline positive

Exceeding all market expectations, Miami's luxury condo market locked in its second-highest sales volume seen in a third quarter in recent history. Only behind the record-setting high of Q3-2021, which was part of the supercharged pandemic-year market, Q3-2023 outpaced all other previous years.

Further, even as the market was expected to catch its breath after a high-geared summer, as it does every year in Miami's seasonal housing market, sales declined only slightly compared to the previous quarter – showing Miami's luxury condo market is in great health, with sustainable growth in the cards.

Below are the key luxury condo sales statistics for Q3 2023 (Fig. 1.2):

Quarterly Sales Comparison — Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market

• Q3-2023 vs Q3-2022. Sales jumped 8.9%, up from 325 in the previous year to 354 sales in Q3 2023. (Fig. 1.1).
• Q3 2023 vs Q2 2023. Sales decreased 17.1% quarter-over-quarter, down from 427 in Q2-2023 to 354 this quarter (Fig. 1).
• With the second-highest sales ever in a third quarter in recent history, Miami's luxury condo market strengthened its position as one of the most valuable housing markets in the U.S. Outperforming third-quarter sales from all pre-pandemic years and the phenomenal Q3-2022, the statistic shows how the market has expanded over the past two years. This also confirms that Miami's luxury housing wasn't just having a moment during the pandemic but has matured into a stable market.

Looking into the monthly sales chart (Fig. 1.3), volumes consistently closed higher compared to 2022's incredible highs:

• July 2023 closed with 107 sales compared to the previous year's 94 sales for the same month.
• August closed with 133 luxury condo sales versus 125 in the same month of 2022.
• September closed with 114 sales, slightly up from the previous year's 106 sales for the same month.

Owing to stable momentum, even as peak season came to a close during the previous quarter, the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 1.4 kept its positive curve between Q2 and Q3-2023. This positive trajectory indicates that the market will likely carry enough momentum, through to the end of the year, keeping inventory levels relatively low and the market balanced.

As real estate experts, we expect Miami's luxury condo market to close the year on a strong note, even as the market paces down in Q4, a typical shift for Miami's seasonal housing market. This will keep the market balanced and equally favorable for both buyers and sellers.

Overall Miami Quarterly Luxury Condo Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 1.2 

Overall Miami Monthly Luxury Condo Sales Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2023 - Fig. 1.3

Overall Miami 12-Month Luxury Condo Sales with Trendline - Fig. 1.4

2. Q3-2023 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales

Q3-2023 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Sales Trends (Fig. 1.5)

• Winner: Fisher Island reported the highest percentage (167%) growth in year-over-year sales.

• Up: Other Miami neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year sales:
• Downtown Miami (79%)
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (62%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour (43%)
• Edgewater (30%)
• South Beach (16%)
• Flat: Mid and North Beach reported the same number of sales as Q2-2023.
• Down: These Miami neighborhoods reported a decline in year-over-year sales:
• Brickell (-8%)
• Sunny Isles Beach (-27%)

More in-depth analysis and details are available in dedicated reports for Greater Downtown Miami, Miami Beach, and the Barrier Islands, plus Coral Gables & Coconut Grove.

Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison Q3-23 over Q3-22 - Fig. 1.5

3. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Prices Are Flat

Q3-2023 Price per Square Foot Flat at $933 — Median Price up Year-over-Year

As expected of a balanced market, Miami's luxury condos reported stable price growth in addition to strong buyer demand in Q3-2023. Closing the quarter with a median price per square foot of $933, sellers continued receiving exceptional value for their luxury properties in Miami. 

The key price statistics for Q3-2023 are:

• Q3-2023 vs Q3-2022. Price per square foot stayed mostly flat, adjusting marginally by +1%, slightly up from $924 in Q3 last year to $933 for the same quarter of 2023 (Fig. 1.1).
• Q3-2023 vs Q2-2023. Price per square foot stayed flat quarter-over-quarter as well, adjusting marginally by -1.6%, down from $948 in Q2 this year to $933 in Q3 2023 (Fig. 1).
• Q3-2023 vs Q3-2022. Median sales price increased 4.7% year-over-year, up from $1,550,000 in Q3 last year to $1,622,500 in the comparable quarter this year (Fig. 1.1).
• A look at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 2.1), shows that the price per square foot again closed in the higher ranges in Q3-2023. This shows that sellers received strong offers with most deals closing with gains.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 2.1

4. Q3-2023 Miami Neighborhood Price Trends

Q3-2023 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Price Trends

Median Price per Square Foot (Fig. 2.2)

• Winner: Fisher Island maintained its position as the most expensive neighborhood in Miami, fetching a median price of $1,988/sq. ft.
• Winner: Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (collectively) reported the highest percentage gains (15%) in year-over-year price per square foot ($869) – offering sellers great value for luxury properties in these beautiful areas.
• Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year price per square foot:
• Sunny Isles Beach – $972/sq. ft. (9%)
• Brickell – $876/sq. ft. (6%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour – $1,254/sq. ft. (4%)
• Edgewater – $889/sq. ft. (3%)
• Flat: Downtown Miami reported a negligible change (1%) in its year-over-year price per square foot ($711).
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decline in year-over-year price per square foot:
• Mid/North Beach - $1,007/sq. ft. (-5%)
• South Beach - $1,115/sq. ft. (-14%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour - $1,343/sq. ft. (-22%)

Miami Neighborhood Q3-23 over Q3-22 Median Price per Square Foot Comparison - Fig. 2.2

Median Sales Price (Fig. 2.3)

• Winner: Surfside and Bal Harbour reported the highest percentage growth (21%) in year-over-year median sales price this third quarter.
• Winner: Fisher Island remained the most expensive market in Miami and South Florida for luxury condos, reporting a (median) price tag of $5.2 million.
• Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year median sales price:
• Sunny Isles Beach – $2.1 million (18%)
• Mid-North Beach – $1.7 million (17%)
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables – $1.6 million (4%)
• Brickell – $1.4 million (2%)
• Edgewater – $1.4 million (2%)
• Flat: Downtown Miami reported the same median sales price as Q3-2022 ($1.2 million).
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decline in year-over-year median sales price:
• Fisher Island – $5.2 million (-3%)
• South Beach – $1.7 million (-13%)

Miami Neighborhood Q3-23 over Q3-22 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.3

5. Q3-2023 Overall Miami Sales Price Trends by Building Year — Mixed

Below is a detailed analysis of how Miami luxury condo buildings performed in Q3-2023 based on their age of construction, categorized as new construction condo buildings (2015-2023), buildings built from 2000-2014, and pre-2000 condo buildings.

• New Construction Buildings again reported a decline in year-over-year stats but higher volumes compared to pre-pandemic years (2020 and earlier). The segment further reported positive year-over-year price gains (4.1%).
• Buildings dated 2000-2014 continued reporting the highest sales volume (157) out of all three segments under review, with prices peaking at a new all-time high of $962/sq. ft. The segment further reported the highest year-over-year price gains (5.5%).
• Condos built before 2000 echoed the positive overall sales trend, closing Q3-2023 at $827/sq. ft. with a decline in year-over-year prices.

Miami New Construction Condos Built 2015-2023

With 111 sales, this newly built segment posted a 7.5% decline in year-over-year sales and a 21% decrease in quarter-over-quarter sales (Fig. 3.1). However, following the overall market mood, sales volume for Miami's freshly-built luxury condo segment reported a significant increase compared to pre-pandemic quarters (Q4-2020 and earlier), indicative of market strength.

Note: Anecdotally, we are seeing exceptionally high demand for pre-construction luxury condos. Most projects are selling out before shovels hit the ground. Many of these pre-construction sales are not recorded in centralized databases and thus are not included in our quarterly sales data and reports.

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales for Buildings Dated 2015-2023 - Fig. 3.1

Fig. 3.2 shows this newly-built segment closed the quarter at $989/sq. ft. — taking a break from posting new highs this third quarter. The price per square foot for this freshly-built segment increased 4.1% year-over-year but declined 14.4% quarter-over-quarter (from $1,155/sq. ft.).

Miami New Construction Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot (Buildings Built 2015-2023) - Fig. 3.2

Miami Luxury Condos Built 2000-2014

Deviating from the overall market trend, luxury condo sales in this segment increased year-over-year but declined quarter-over-quarter. With 157 sales, the segment posted a 22.7% increase in year-over-year numbers (Fig. 3.3) – making it the most popular among buyers out of all three segments under review. Quarterly sales for this segment further outperformed all pre-pandemic quarters (Q4-2020 and earlier), in step with the positive market mood.

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.3

Fig. 3.4 shows this segment (built 2000-2014) closed the quarter with a new peak price of $962/sq. ft. – consistently giving sellers the best value to date for their luxury properties. The price per square foot in this segment increased 5% quarter-over-quarter and 5.5% year-over-year.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.4

Miami Luxury Condos Built Before 2000

With 82 sales, this classic segment (built pre-2000) reported a 7.9% increase in year-over-year volume, but a 26% decline in quarter-over-quarter sales stats (Fig. 3.5). Still, echoing the overall market energy with higher sales compared to any pre-pandemic quarter this classic segment also kept to the newfound growth thresholds noted in the overall market.

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.5

Closing the quarter at $827 per square foot, prices for this classic segment were down 6.9% quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year.

Overall Miami Luxury Condos Price per Sq. Ft.  (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.6

6. Overall Miami Luxury Condos — Days on Market Flat QoQ, Up YoY

With the high season behind us, it was expected to see the days on market statistics increase. Still, in Q3-2023, luxury condos spent only two extra days on the market compared to Q2 this year. At 75 days, luxury properties continued selling at a healthy pace, showing great buyer-seller communication and the continued success of the market.

On a year-over-year basis, luxury condos spent 13 more days on market (DOM) compared to Q3-2022 – increasing 21% year-over-year from one of its lowest levels last year. As real estate experts, we again expect to see the days on market post an uptick as we go through the slower paced Q4.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2023 - Fig. 4.1

7. Q3-2023 Miami Neighborhood Days on Market Trends

Q3-2023 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Days on Market Trends (Fig. 4.2)

• Winner: Luxury condos in Downtown Miami spent only 54 days on the market – making it the fastest-selling neighborhood of Q3-2023 with a 47% decline in year-over-year stats.
• Down: Other neighborhoods reporting a decline in year-over-year days on market:
• Fisher Island – 165 days (-50%)
• Up: Neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year days on market:
• Sunny Isles Beach – 98 days (8%)
• South Beach – 84 days (24%)
• Brickell – 63 days (26%)
• Coconut Grove and Coral Gables – 63 days (47%)
• Edgewater – 100 days (57%)
• Mid-North Beach – 63 days (58%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour – 100 days (217%)

Miami Neighborhood 3Q23-Over-3Q22 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.2

8. Q3-2023 Luxury Condo Inventory Up to 14 months Means a Balanced Market

Owing to good market momentum, inventory levels reported only a slight uptick compared to the previous quarter (also high season in Miami). With inventory well below the 18-month peak noted in February 2023, the market continued in equilibrium – bringing equal value and opportunity to buyers and sellers.

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory was up from 12 months in June this year to 14 months in September 2023 – reporting a 16.7% increase.
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory was up from nine months in September 2022 – reporting a 55.5% increase from one of its lows a year ago (Fig. 5.1).

Considering an ideal market should hold 9 to12 months of inventory - at 14 months, the statistic still stayed close to a balanced range. This, even as the third quarter is generally known to be slower (as per historical data) and inventory levels are expected to climb as we approach the end of the year.

As real estate experts, we expect the market to stay balanced through to the end of the year, even as inventory levels increase with the market pacing down ahead of winter (as it does every year).

Overall Miami Months of Luxury Condo Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2023 - Fig. 5.1

A balanced market has about 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as the number of active listings + number of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

9. Miami Overall Luxury Condo Market - Q3-2023 Conclusion

Balanced market thrives with dynamic sales, stable prices, and relatively low inventory.

Bucking seasonal trends in Q3-2023, Miami's luxury condo market reported its second-highest third-quarter sales of all time. Owing to a remarkable surge in an otherwise slower quarter (as noted from historical data), the market showed signs of excellent health with volumes outperforming all pre-pandemic quarters (Q4-2020 and before).

In Q3-2023, Fisher Island emerged as Miami's most popular neighborhood, leading year-over-year sales growth with a 167% jump in volumes. Most other Miami neighborhoods too followed suit with positive sales stats – with only Brickell and Sunny Isles Beach reporting a decline in year-over-year volumes. Further, the trendline tracking sales over the past 12 months too kept a positive curve, indicating a clear path for Miami's luxury condo market to experience sustainable growth.

On the price front, the majority of Miami neighborhoods either reported year-over-year gains or flat property values – indicating most sellers received great value for their luxury condo investments. 

Of all the neighborhoods under review, luxury condos in Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (collectively) again took the lead by offering the highest year-over-year price gains (15%). While Fisher Island remained the most expensive zip code ($1,988/sq. ft.), Downtown Miami stayed the best-priced sub-market for buyers by logging in at a median price of $711/sq. ft.

Buildings built 2000-2014 remained the most popular choice among buyers, again reporting the highest sales volume of all three segments under review (newly-built to classic). Further, this more established segment of luxury condos (built 2000-2014) afforded the highest value to sellers with a 5.5% gain in year-over-year prices.

Expectedly, the days on market statistics reported a year-over-year increase as we put the high season behind us. Taking 75 days to sell (on median), luxury condos continued selling at a healthy pace during Q3-2023, and Downtown Miami emerged as the fastest-selling neighborhood of Q3-2023, with luxury condos taking only 54 days to sell (on median).

Owing to steady buyer demand, inventory stayed closed to the 9-12-month range of a balanced market. With 14 months of inventory, buyers received the benefit of having multiple properties within their preferred price range, while sellers continued receiving competitive offers (at or almost at asking price). As real estate experts, we expect steady momentum to keep inventory levels low through to the end of 2023.

For buyers or investors looking to browse the kind of inventory available on the market, you can search for all currently listed luxury condos for sale in Miami or contact us directly.

10. Miami's Luxury Condo Market Prediction 2023: Where Does the Market Go From Here?

As South Florida becomes the second-most valuable housing market in the U.S., just behind California, and Miami transforming from a vacation hotspot into a key family and financial hub, we expect the following factors to influence buyer decision and market performance going into the final quarter of 2023:

• Strong Economic Indicators. As a 2023 SmartAsset report pitches Florida as the "No. 1 destination for professionals aged 25 to 36 earning at least $200,000," plus another report stating that there have been over three times as many high-earners migrating to the Sunshine State as leaving, we expect strong buyer demand to keep fueling the luxury housing market in Miami.
• Domestic Demand Rivaling Foreign Buyer Interest. As New Yorkers turn into the new "foreign buyers," in terms of homebuyer volume in Miami, coupled with the continued mass migration of businesses to South Florida, we expect steady demand from business magnates to well-compensated employees to fuel our booming luxury market.
• Decreasing Impact of Interest Rates. Considering cash is king in Miami's real estate market, as two out of every three foreign buyers pay in cash, we expect deep-pocketed homebuyers to keep the market moving regardless of high interest rates.
• Unparallel Outdoors and Active Lifestyle. With Miami ranking as the #2 Happiest and Healthiest City in the U.S. owing to the ease of leading an active lifestyle, as world-class beaches and nature escapes abound, we expect to remain in the spotlight for health enthusiasts from around the world.
• Booming New Construction and Branded Luxury. Given Miami's recent surge in branded new construction projects such as the Bentley Residences, The St. Regis Residences, Edition Residences, or Dolce & Gabbana Residence, we expect more high-net-worth buyers and investors to park their investments here, as they recognize the prospects for a superlative lifestyle with lucrative returns.
• Relatively Lower Inventory Levels. Even with a booming pre-construction market and a slower paced Q4 on the horizon, we expect healthy buyer demand to keep inventory levels in check and the market balanced, as most new projects are likely to be delivered in the next 2-4 years.

If you'd like more details on the data in our exclusive Condo Blackbook quarterly luxury condo market reports, please send us an email or call us anytime.

Love what you see? Share our blog and subscribe (see the subscribe link on the top menu) to receive informative and interesting Miami real estate market news in your inbox. Also, keep up with us on your favorite social media platforms. We're on Instagram, Facebook, and Twitter @blackbookproperties.