2023 is off to a healthy start! As predicted in our Q4 2022 Luxury Housing Report, Miami’s luxury condo market rebounded in the first quarter of 2023, as buyers and sellers returned in anticipation of high season (typically Spring). The numbers and statistics are supporting what we’ve been seeing on the ground, as buyer demand holds steady, driven by lower taxes, business migration, great weather, waterfront to branded housing options, and an overall great quality of life in South Florida

Shaking off the slower pace of the holiday season, first-quarter sales of 2023 for luxury condos priced $1 million and higher outperformed those from 2020 or pre-pandemic years; while sales were down compared to Q1 2022, Q1 2023 posted a record quarter looking back pre-pandemic. 

Prices also posted a slight uptick during the first quarter, in a nod to the luxury condo market’s overall health – squashing any doubts or rumors of an imminent crash like that of the national housing market. The year-over-year Days on Market also reported a decline, indicating smooth buyer-seller communication, and condos selling faster.

Get our exclusive insight and analysis of Miami luxury market statistics in our Q1 2023 Miami Housing Market Summary video.

As predicted, the Months of Inventory (indicative of how many months it would take to the current inventory of listings to be cleared off the market) showed signs of improvement too, as numbers reduced to reflect a healthy market pace.

The take-away? With 17 months’ worth of inventory on the market, it might seem that we are in a buyer’s market (9-12 months is the ideal range for a balanced market). However, considering high season is here, we, as real estate experts, expect Miami’s luxury condo market to shift gears to a more balanced position over the second quarter as the market picks up pace and more inventory is cleared

For now, we’d say buyers and sellers have equal footing at the negotiating table – presenting a leveled playing field to both sides.

Here are some Key Statistics for Q1 2023:

• Q1 2023 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market - Closed Sales: 367
  • Year-over-Year Change in Closed Sales: -50.7% (367 vs 744 sales in Q1 2022)
  • Quarter-over-quarter Change in Closed Sales: 33.9% (367 vs 274 sales in Q1 2023)
• Q1 2023 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market - Median Sales Price: $1.8M
  • Change in Median Sales Price: Flat (0.8% / Q1 2023 vs Q1 2022)
    
    

— Q1 2023 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market - Inventory: 17 months

Read on for a closer look into a neighborhood-wise breakdown of our quarterly findings for Q1 2023: 

For the purpose of this Miami luxury condo market report, we've only included properties priced $1 million and above. The neighborhoods included in this market summary include Downtown Miami, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District, Brickell, Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, Miami Beach, Fisher Island, Surfside and Bal Harbour, and Sunny Isles Beach.

— Q1 2023 - Miami Luxury Condo Market Sales 

Overall sales down -50.7% from a record 1Q in 2022

With 367 sales overall, Q1-23 volumes were 50.7% lower compared to the previous year’s all-time record-high of 744 sales. At first glance, Q1-23 sales might seem weak compared to the previous year’s record numbers. However, what needs to be emphasized is that Q1-22 reported the highest-ever first-quarter sales in more than 10 years of analysis (774 sales). From a statistical view, it is likely that 2022 will become an outlier year representing a surging market anomaly. 

Comparing quarter to quarter, we see that sales increased 33.9% from 274 in Q4-22 to 367 sales in Q1-23. What’s further worth noting is that Q1-23 volumes were also higher compared to the quarterly sales recorded in 2020 or before (watch for our in-depth luxury condo market report for Q1 2023). This shows that Miami’s luxury condo market opened the year strong, while maintaining the growth and momentum gathered over the past two years of booming sales.

Q1 2023 Miami Luxury Housing Market Stats – Neighborhood Sales at a Glance

 *Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.

Looking at a broader, neighborhood-wise sales comparison (above), the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove & Coral Gables emerged as the most resilient market of Q1 2023 - reporting only a 33.9% decline in year-over-year sales. On the other hand, the Miami Beach neighborhoods (collectively) again showed maximum impact with a 52.4% drop in year-over-year sales.

A closer look at the sub-markets again showed that Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (collectively) topped popularity charts in Q1 2023 – leading market growth with the least setback in year-over-year sales (41 in Q1-23 vs. 62 in Q1-22). On the other hand, Sunny Isles Beach continued reporting the maximum sales volume of all neighborhoods under review, closing the first quarter with 85 total sales. 

Considering the last two quarters of 2022 lost considerable momentum, the 12-month sales trendline for the overall market kept its negative curve between Q4 2022 and Q1 2023. All Miami neighborhoods in our analysis continued reporting a negative 12-month trendline as well. While this generally indicates that the next quarter should come up soft, we, as real estate experts, expect the second quarter to come in strong, since we will be at the peak of high season. (Miami’s luxury condo market is cyclical in nature, alternating between high and low seasons every year.)

— Q1 2023 Miami Luxury Condo Market Prices

Q1 2023 Price per SF up 2.2% to highest-ever at $966/SF

Bucking national trends, Miami’s luxury condo market closed Q1-23 with a slight uptick in its year-over-year Price per Square Foot. A majority of the Miami neighborhoods under our review either reported gains or a flat price year-over-year.

Luxury condos in Fisher Island again delivered maximum gains for sellers, closing Q1-23 with the highest percentage increase in year-over-year Price per Square Foot. Prices in this sub-market increased from $1,881 in Q1-22 to $2,273 in Q1-23 – reporting a gain of 21%.

Fisher Island also continued being the most expensive zip code for luxury condos in Miami with a median price of $2,273 per square foot, while Downtown Miami emerged as the most affordable neighborhood in Q1-23, with a median price of $776 per square foot.

Q1 2023 Miami Luxury Housing Marktet – Price per Square Foot Stats

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.

— Q1 2023 Miami Luxury Condo Stats – Days on Market

Q1 2023 Days on Market down -6.2% from Q1 2022 – Luxury condos took 76 days to sell

With a healthy sales momentum, luxury condos in Miami sold 6.2% faster than a year ago (76 days in Q1-23 vs. 81 days in Q1-22).

Most of the Miami neighborhoods under analysis posted a decline in the number of days luxury condos spent on the market before they were sold. Taking only 61 days to sell, Edgewater and Brickell (both mainland Miami neighborhoods) emerged as the fastest-selling markets this quarter. 

On the other hand, Fisher Island reported the highest days on market this first quarter, with properties taking 104 days to sell, which we will follow up on in our detailed Q1 2023 Luxury Condo Market Report for Miami Beach. 

Q1 2023 Miami Luxury Condo Market Stats – Days on Market  

 *Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.

— Q1 2023 - Miami Luxury Condo Market Inventory 

Overall Inventory Up at 17 months

Up to 17 months from 6 months last March and the same as last December (close of Q4-22), Months of Inventory closed above the 9-12-month range of a balanced market, suggesting a buyer’s market, on paper at least.

Of all the neighborhoods under review, Fisher Island plus the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove and Coral Gables reported the lowest months of inventory (12 months), with Edgewater (14 months) following close.

As expected, with more people listing in anticipation of high season, inventory levels inflated towards the end of 2022 and into the first two months of 2023. However, with momentum expectedly picking up as well, we see levels looking to normalize at the close of the first quarter. This, combined with what we’re seeing anecdotally, as real estate experts, we expect inventory levels to further correct closer to a balanced range over the next few months.

So, even as current levels suggest that the luxury condo market is in favor of buyers, the market stands in equilibrium, especially with prices stable or slightly up. Sellers are recommended to list their properties, confident in the fact that prices are at an all-time high, with no signs of crashing. On the other hand, investors should take the opportunity as more inventory has emerged on the market, giving them the advantage of choice and down-shifting interest rates. 

Q1 2023 Miami Luxury Condo Market Stats – Months of Inventory 

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.

— Q1 2023 Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Market Summary

As predicted in our Q4 2022 summary report, Miami’s luxury condo market is off to a strong start. Even though the market has come a long way from the breakneck speed of 2022, normalized and robust sales activity is carrying the market toward a steady position – offering buyers and sellers a leveled playing field.

All other market indicators read positive as well – prices are mostly flat or higher than a year ago, the days on market may have seasonally increased but are still lower compared to the same quarter of 2022, and months of inventory for most neighborhoods have reduced quarter-over-quarter (read December 2022).

— Q1 2023 Miami Luxury Housing Market Predictions

With spring kicking off high season, we expect steady demand from deep-pocketed out-of-towners as well as foreign buyers to continue powering the luxury condo market moving into 2023. We’re also seeing a second wave of business migration in Miami, as more developers have announced building brand-new Class-A office projects, looking to attract businesses moving to Miami for tax savings and to flourish in an overall conducive environment.

As interest rates steadily decline after peaking in October 2022, we expect more buyers to get off the sidelines, letting go of any initial hesitation. This, combined with the recent uptick in inventory, will work to the advantage of buyers, as they can expect to find a bit more selection and a bit less competition in Miami’s luxury condo market, for now.

Considering Miami has been acknowledged as the second “prime” real estate market in the world by a recent Knight Frank Report, plus major commercial players have either already moved here or are in the process of setting up offices in South Florida, we expect healthy buyer demand to keep the market steady. Add to that great quality of life, nature-dominated landscape, sugar-sand beaches, plus a new wave of branded luxury condos such as Bentley Residences or The St. Regis Residences - and Miami offers a hard-to-beat package for domestic and international buyers alike.

As mentioned above, based on healthy buyer demand, we expect Miami’s luxury condo market to level out in 2023, shifting into a more balanced position as inventory corrects over the next quarter or two. As real estate experts, we recommend sellers list their properties with stable pricing in mind. For buyers, we recommend enjoying this extra wiggle room created by surplus inventory and locking down on their favorite work-from-home space or second home with great rental income opportunities. 

To stay tuned for our exclusive, in-depth analysis of the Q1 2023 luxury condo market in Miami, and subscribe to this blog as we will soon be rolling out separate reports for the overall Miami market, Miami Beach, Greater Downtown Miami, and Coconut Grove plus Coral Gables neighborhoods.

If you have specific questions about this data, or want a market assessment of your property, please reach out to us directly or via our social media @blackbookproperties.