2021 may have been a year of record highs for Miami’s luxury housing market, but 2022, turns out, almost broke records as well. Yes, the last quarter of year saw Miami’s luxury condo sales slowing, but prices remained steady or increased. 2022 closed as a year of balance and stabilization for Miami’s luxury condo market. After spending about 8 quarters in overdrive (starting Q3 2020), the market cooled down over the last two quarters of 2022, as predicted in our Q2 2022 + Q3 2022 summary reports.

But, how should you be reading into this cool down? Is the market healthy or showing signs of distress? Is Miami’s luxury condo market headed towards a crisis like the national housing market or is there something more to the trend?

While at first glance it might seem Miami’s luxury condo market fared badly with a 52.2% drop in year-over-year sales compared to Q4 2021 – it should be noted that 2021 was a year of exceptional highs and records. A closer look at quarterly charts from previous years and a comparison of annual numbers with those from 2020 and before reveal that Miami’s luxury condo market may have closed 2022 on a soft note in comparison to 2021, but it performed as well as or better than pre-pandemic years.  

The take-away? Overall, Q4 2022 closed with a decline in sales activity and an expected spike in inventory. However, prices posted gains and days on market stayed low, signifying Miami’s luxury housing market is showing signs of good health.

And Annual sales for 2022 reported only a 10.4% decline against 2021’s record numbers. Additionally, they posted an incredible 194.8% increase compared to the annual sales of 2020 – showing that Miami’s luxury condo market marches strong into 2023.

Key stats for Q4 2022:

Q4 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market - Closed Sales: 269

• Year-over-Year Change in Closed Sales: -52.2% (269 vs 563 sales in Q4 2021)
• Quarter-to-quarter Change in Closed Sales: -16.7% (269 vs 323 sales in Q3 2022)

Q4 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market - Median Sales Price: $1.6M

• Change in Median Sales Price: -9.6% (Q4 2022 vs Q4 2021)

Q4 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market - Inventory: 17 months

Key stats for Year-End 2022 (annual trends):

Total Closed Sales (2022) - Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market:

• 2022-over-2021 Change in Closed Sales: -10.4% (2108 vs 2353 total sales in 2021)
• 2022-over-2020 Change in Closed Sales: 194.8% (2108 vs 715 total sales in 2020)

Median Sales Price (2022) - Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market

• Change in Median Sales Price: $1.68M, mostly flat with a slight adjustment of -2.6% (2022 vs 2021)

Is Miami now in a seller’s or buyer’s market? As predicted in Q3 2022, Miami’s luxury condo market shifted into a more balanced position with a spike in inventory towards the end of 2022. Although current inventory levels (17 months) suggest that it is a buyer’s market, as real estate experts, we recommend reading it as a leveled playing field, where buyers and sellers have equal opportunity since we expect to see a correction moving into the high season of 2023, and Days on Market is still low, with prices edging up.

Q4 2022 MIAMI LUXURY CONDO QUARTERLY MARKET SUMMARY

 
2022 MIAMI LUXURY CONDO ANNUAL MARKET SUMMARY

Read on for a closer look into a neighborhood-wise breakdown of our quarterly and annual findings for Q4 2022 and overall for 2022:

For the purpose of this Miami luxury condo market report, we've only included properties priced $1 million and above. The neighborhoods included in this market summary include Downtown Miami, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District, Brickell, Coconut Grove, Coral Gables, Key Biscayne, Miami Beach, Fisher Island, Surfside and Bal Harbour, and Sunny Isles Beach.

Q4 2022 & Annual - Miami Luxury Condo Market Sales 

2022 sales drop only 10% from the highest-ever recorded in 2021; Q4 sales drop 52.2% from Q4 2021

Considering no market can operate in top gear endlessly, it was inevitable for Miami’s luxury to cool down at some point – and that happened after around 8 quarters of booming sales. With signs of a slowdown first emerging in the summer of 2022, sales further cooled off over Q3 and Q4 2022, especially with the seasonal slowdown settling in (Miami’s cyclical luxury condo market is known to slow down during the second half of the year, as evidenced by historical data).

With 269 sales overall, Q4-22 volumes closed 52.2% lower than the previous year’s record-high of 563 sales. Comparing quarter to quarter, sales declined 16.7% from 323 in Q3-22, down to 269 in Q4-22.

What’s worth noting is that sales volumes were still higher than any fourth-quarter sales recorded in 2020 or before (watch out for our in-depth luxury condo market report for Q4 2022). This shows that Miami’s luxury condo market was stable and maintained its momentum garnered over the past two years.

Q4 2022 Neighborhood Sales at a Glance

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.

Looking into a neighborhood-wise sales comparison (above), the Greater Downtown area (mainland districts) again emerged as the most resilient market of Q4 2022 - reporting a 33.1% decline in year-over-year sales. On the other hand, the Miami Beach neighborhoods (collectively) showed maximum impact with a 58.4% drop in year-over-year sales.

Downtown Miami topped popularity charts as the only neighborhood to report positive sales – leading market growth in Q4 2022. This mainland neighborhood posted a 22% increase in year-over-year sales (11 in Q4-22 vs. 9 in Q4-21).

Sunny Isles Beach again reported the maximum sales volume of all neighborhoods under review, closing the quarter with 54 sales.

As momentum continued to decline, the 12-month sales trendline for the overall market kept its negative curve between Q3 and Q4 2022. All Miami neighborhoods in our analysis too reported a negative 12-month trendline. While this indicates that the luxury condo market could open softer in 2023, we, as real estate experts, expect the market to keep its pace as we will be moving into high season by summer.

Annual sales down 10.4% from record-setting 2021 – Closed as Second-biggest Sales Year Ever

Contrary to popular opinion, Miami’s luxury condo market closed 2022 with the second-highest sales in a year, ever. Owing to a booming start in the first half, annual sales fell short by only 10.4% compared to 2021’s record-breaking numbers.

With 2,108 annual sales, 2022 closed as one of the strongest years in recent history, only behind 2021 with 2,353 annual sales. In comparison, 2020 closed with a total of 715 sales, 2019 reported 719 sales, and 2018 closed with 692 annual sales.

Annual Neighborhood Sales at a Glance

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.

Looking into a neighborhood-wise sales comparison (above), Greater Downtown Miami (mainland grouping) emerged as the strongest market of 2022 - reporting a 24.1% increase in year-over-year total sales. This could be likely due to buyers opting for more affordable waterfront housing options or to live closer to their place of work on the mainland.

Downtown Miami and Brickell emerged as the most popular markets for luxury condo buyers in 2022 – leading annual market growth trends. Downtown posted a 27% increase in annual sales against 2021 (95 in 2022 vs. 75 in 2021), while Brickell followed close with a 25% uptick (390 in 2022 vs. 313 in 2021).

In terms of volume, Sunny Isles Beach reported the maximum number of sales out of all neighborhoods under review - closing 2022 with a total of 462 sales.

Q4 2022 & Annual - Miami Luxury Condo Market Prices

Q4 2022 Price/SF up 5% from Q4 2021 to highest-ever at $948/SF

With most of 2022 being the year of the seller, a majority of Miami neighborhoods under our review reported year-over-year price gains in Q4 2022 as well as annually.

Luxury condos in Fisher Island delivered maximum gains for sellers, closing Q4-22 with the highest percentage increase in year-over-year Price per Square Foot. Prices in this sub-market increased from $1,477 in Q4-21 to $2,584 in Q4-22 – posting an incredible gain of 75%.

Fisher Island also continued being the most expensive zip code for luxury condos in Miami with a price of $2,584 per square foot, while the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove and Coral Gables emerged as the most affordable neighborhood in Q4-22 with a median price of $719 per square foot.

Q4 2022 Price per Square Foot at a Glance

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.

Annual (2022) Price/SF up 8.4% from 2021

In 2022, the overall market reported year-over-year price gains, as all Miami neighborhoods under our review contributed with an uptick in their annual price per square foot.

Luxury condos in Fisher Island and the combined neighborhood of Surfside and Bal Harbour again reported maximum gains for sellers, with the highest percentage increase in year-over-year Price per Square Foot. Annual Prices in Fisher Island rose from $1,481 in 2021 to $1,903 in 2022, while those in Surfside and Bal Harbour increased from $1,013 in 2021 to $1,292 in 2022 – both neighborhoods reporting a 28% gain.

Fisher Island continued being the most expensive zip code for luxury condos, hands down, with an annual price of $1,903 per square foot, while Downtown Miami remained the most affordable neighborhood with a median price of $724 per square foot.

Annual Price per Square Foot at a Glance

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.

Q4 2022 & Annual - Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market

Q4 2022 Days on Market down -4.2% from Q4 2021 – Luxury condos took only 68 days to sell

Even as sales activity continued to slow down, luxury condos in Miami sold 4.2% faster than a year ago (68 days in Q4-22 vs. 71 days in Q4-21). 

A majority of the Miami neighborhoods under analysis posted a decline in the number of days luxury condos spent on the market before they were sold. Taking only 27 days to sell, Fisher Island emerged as the fastest-selling market this quarter.

On the other hand, Coconut Grove & Coral Gables, Mid-North Beach, and South Beach deviated from the trend, reporting an increase in their days on market data, which we will follow up on in our detailed Q4 2022 luxury condo market reports for each sub-market.

Q4 2022 Days on Market at a Glance

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.

Luxury condos took about 2 months (median) to sell in 2022

Overall, in 2022, luxury condos sold 25.3% faster than a year ago, indicating great buyer-seller communication (68 days in 2022 vs. 91 days in 2021).

All Miami neighborhoods under analysis posted declines in the number of days luxury condos spent on the market before they were sold. Taking only 41 days to sell, the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove & Coral Gables emerged as the fastest-selling market of 2022 (on an annual basis), followed by Brickell condos taking 56 days. 

Annual Days on Market at a Glance

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island. 

Q4 2022/Year-end - Miami Luxury Condo Market Inventory

Overall Inventory up to 17 months

Last quarter, levels for the first time in months, Miami’s luxury condo market saw an increase in inventory. With sales staying slow through to the end of the year, inventory levels expectedly spiked across Miami.

Up to 17 months from 9 months last December and this September (Q3-22 closing), inventory rose to double digits for the first time since May 2021. Of all the neighborhoods under review, the combined neighborhood of Coconut Grove and Coral Gables reported the lowest months of inventory (13 months), with Brickell (15 months) following close.

With more people listing before high season and sales picking up pace in the new year, we, as real estate experts, expect inventory levels to correct over the next few months. This means, for now, there is an equilibrium between buyers and sellers, even though the market may read as buyer friendly.

Q4 2022 Inventory at a Glance 

*Greater Downtown Miami is inclusive of Edgewater, Brickell & Downtown

**Miami Beach is inclusive of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North Beach, Surfside & Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles & Fisher Island.

Q4 2022 & Annual Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Market Summary

As real estate experts, we expect Miami’s luxury condo market to open 2023 on a stable, if not strong, note. Even though we do not expect the market to move at the breakneck speed of 2021, we do expect good sales activity to carry the market towards a more balanced position in 2023 – giving buyers and sellers equal (negotiations) opportunity at the table. 

In 2022, Miami’s luxury condo market proved its resilience as it closed with the second-biggest year of sales ever, even amidst talks of a national housing crisis and recession. This, combined with price gains speaks to the overall health of the market here as compared to any other housing market in the country. A recent study by Goldman Sachs researchers further pitches Miami as one of the few major housing markets that will escape any market crunch in 2023, outperforming the likes of New York, Chicago, Las Vegas, and San Francisco.

Q1 2023 Miami Luxury Housing Market Predictions 

Considering the start of a new year is the unofficial marker of the beginning of high season in Miami, we expect continued demand from deep-pocketed out-of-towners as well as foreign buyers to power the luxury condo market in 2023. The attraction of tax savings and a safe harbor from adverse political winds back home is expected to keep our luxury condo market in good shape with healthy buyer demand. 

As interest rates have started to go down after peaking in October 2022, we expect more buyers and sellers to come off the sidelines in 2023, letting go of any initial hesitation. This is also expected to play to the advantage of buyers, in addition to the recent uptick in inventory, as in they can expect to find a bit more selection and a bit less competition in Miami’s luxury condo market during the first half of 2022.

Additionally, a recent study by the luxury market-leading Knight Frank Report has ranked Miami as the second “prime” real estate market in the world. Owing to a great quality of life, nature-dominated landscape, recent business migration, new wave of branded luxury condos such as Aston Martin Residences, Bentley Residences, or The St. Regis Residences, Miami has cemented its position as a top global city of choice among high net worth individuals across the globe.

Based on healthy buyer demand, sellers can still expect to take advantage of the luxury condo market in Miami. However, we, as real estate experts, recommend sellers to price their properties with stability or even a probable correction in mind to attract more buyers. Or simply wait for a few cycles until a chunk of this inventory has cleared off the market and we are in a more balanced position.

Taking all the above factors into account, coupled with Miami emerging as a top housing market of choice for domestic as well as foreign buyers, we expect the luxury condo market to level out into 2023, shifting into a more balanced position, but stay healthy. Although inventory may have spiked towards the end of 2023, we expect it to correct in the immediate future, as sales pick up pace moving into summer and fewer deliveries of newly built condo product scheduled to hit the market in the interim. Until then, buyers can enjoy this extra wiggle room for negotiations created by the sudden increase and lock down on their favorite work from home spot with a view or second home with great rental income opportunities.

To stay tuned for our exclusive, in-depth analysis of the the Q4 2022 luxury condo market in Miami, subscribe to this blog as we will soon be rolling out separate reports for the overall Miami market, Miami Beach, Greater Downtown Miami, and Coconut Grove plus Coral Gables (collectively).

If you have specific questions about this data, or want a market assessment of your property, please reach out to us directly or via our social media @blackbookproperties.