Q2 2023 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Report

Q2 2023 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Report

Aug 07, 2023 August 07, 2023

View the most up-to-date market reports.

 

After a robust first quarter, Spring time (typically high season) delivered an expected boost for this top Miami neighborhood market pairing. In line with the market predictions detailed in our Q1 2023 luxury housing market report for Coral Gables and Coconut Grove, sales improved quarter-over-quarter, with inventory shrinking back to its ideal range – keeping the market stable with healthy buyer-seller equilibrium.

In Q2 2023, sales may have fallen short of touching the previous year's record-high (noting that 2022 was an outlier year of record highs), but sales volumes showed health and stability at the same time. The Coconut Grove & Coral Gable Condos Price per Square Foot hit an all-time high, showing how an influx of newer luxury condos in this pairing continue commanding top-dollar. And condos are selling quickly here as well. Days on Market dropped quarter-over-quarter to report the second-fastest-selling market in Miami. Finally, Inventory declined as well, offering a leveled playing field for buyers and sellers in this combined group.

Read on for more details on how this pairing of Miami's most beautiful neighborhoods - Coconut Grove and Coral Gables - performed year-over-year, as well as against the overall Miami market trends in terms of sales, prices, days on market, and inventory in our exclusive, full-length analysis for luxury condos this Q2 2023.

For the purpose of this Miami submarket luxury condo report, we've only included properties priced $1 million and above.



Key Q2 2023 Miami Housing Market Stats: Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market

  • Sales down -47.8% from previous year's record-setting high
  • Q2 2023 sales higher than pre-pandemic years (2020 and earlier)
  • 12-month Sales Trendline corrected to positive from negative curve in past three quarters
  • Price per Square Foot up 32.1% year-over-year to peak of $999/Sq. Ft. – ighest percentage gain of all Miami neighborhoods under review
  • Median Sales Price up 13.8% year-over-year to $1.85M
  • Days on Market up 167% year-over-year; Down quarter-over-quarter
  • Inventory up 50% year-over-year to 8 months – but lowest of all Miami neighborhoods
  • Coral Gables and Coconut Grove remains a strong, balanced market - favoring buyers and sellers equally


Table of Contents

  1. Q2 2023 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove: Sales Trends
  2. Q2 2023 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove: Price Trends
  3. Q2 2023 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove: Days on Market Trends
  4. Q2 2023 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove: Inventory Trends
  5. Q2 2023 Market Conclusion


— Q2 2023 - Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Sales: Down YoY, Up QoQ

Q2 2023 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q2 2023

48

11.6%

$1,850,000

-1.3%

$999

34.6%

58

Q1 2023

43

$1,875,000

$743

84



Q2 2023 Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1.1

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q2 2023

48

-47.8%

$1,850,000

13.8%

$999

32.1%

58

Q2 2022

92

$1,625,250

$757

22


Q2 2023 Sales down -47.8% year-over-year: Higher than pre-pandemic period — 12-month sales trendline positive 

As predicted in our Q1 2023 housing stats for Coral Gables and Coconut Grove, high season (typically Spring) boosted the luxury condo market with enhanced momentum this second quarter – a perfect progression to the robust pace seen in the opening quarter. 

Echoing the pace of the overall market, where volumes were lower year-over-year but improved quarter-over-quarter, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove (collectively) also reported the following Sales Statistics for Q2 2023:

  • Q2 2023 vs Q2 2022. Sales declined 47.8% year-over-year, down from 92 in Q2 last year to 48 sales for the same quarter of 2023. (Fig.1.1)
    • What's worth noting is that even as volumes were lower compared to a year ago, where sales touched an all-time high in Q2 2022, Q2 2023 volumes remained higher compared to pre-pandemic sales noted in year 2020 or earlier. This indicates that the luxury condo market has crossed a key growth threshold and the statistic remains in positive territory even with the YoY drop.
  • Q2 2023 vs Q1 2023. Sales increased 11.6% quarter-over-quarter, up from 43 in Q1 2023 to 48 sales in this second quarter of 2023. (Fig. 1)

Looking into the Monthly Sales statistics of Fig. 2.2 for Coral Gables and Coconut Grove:

  • April 2023 closed with 12 sales compared to 29 for the same month last year.
  • May 2023 closed with 19 sales versus 32 in the same month of 2022.
  • June closed with 17 sales, down from the previous year's 31 sales for the same month.

Owing to high season's accelerated momentum, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 2.3 corrected to a positive curve in Q2 2023 – breaking its negative streak that continued from Q3 2022 to Q1 2023.

Considering the third quarter of the year is generally the softest (as per historical data), as luxury condo experts, we expect momentum to cool off for this pairing of beautiful neighborhoods in Q3 2023. However, we will be watching to see if a new trend is emerging, and further anticipate that inventory levels will remain low, as a positive sales trendline indicates favorable market momentum.


Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 2.1

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 2.1


Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to June 2023 - Fig. 2.2

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to June 2023 - Fig. 2.2


Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3


— Q2 2023 - Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Price per Square Foot: Up to All-time High


Q2 2023 Price per Square Foot at Record High of $999 — Median Price up Year-over-Year
 

Closing the quarter with a peak price of $999/square foot, this historic pairing reported its highest-ever Price per Square Foot in Q2 2023. Considering that most newly constructed luxury condos such as Villa Valencia and the Park Grove properties have been selling for over $1,000/SF for the past few quarters, it appears that the average price in this small sub-market has gone up and may no longer stay the most affordable in Miami moving forward. 

Positively deviating from the trends noted in the overall Miami market of a higher year-over-year price per square foot and flat year-over-year median sales price, the Key Price Statistics for Coral Gables and Coconut Grove (collectively) in Q2 2023 were:

  • Q2 2023 vs Q2 2022. Price per Square Foot increased by 32.1%, up from $757 in Q2 last year to $999 in Q2 2023 (Fig. 1.1).
  • Q2 2023 vs Q1 2023. Price per Square Foot increased by 34.6%, up from $743 in the previous quarter to $999 in Q2 2023 (Fig. 1).
  • Q2 2023 vs Q2 2022. Median Sales Price increased by 13.8%, up from $1,625,250 in Q2 2022 to $1,850,000 in Q2 this year (Fig. 1.1).

With the highest percentage gain (32%) in year-over-year Price per Square Foot, luxury condos in Coral Gables and Coconut Grove offered maximum value to sellers in all of Miami this second quarter.

A look at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 3), shows that the Price per Square Foot leaped to a record high – indicating that sellers received excellent value for their luxury condo investments in this pairing of Miami's most beautiful and tropically lush neighborhoods on a longer-term basis.


Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 3

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 3



— Q2 2023 - Days on Market Down QoQ, Up YoY, 2nd fastest-selling Market in Miami


Days on Market up 167% year-over-year. Reflecting the overall market trend of an increase in year-over-year values and declining quarter-over-quarter numbers, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove (collectively) reported the following Days on Market statistics in Q2 2023:

  • On a year-over-year basis, luxury condos spent 36 extra days on market (DOM) compared to Q2 2022 – an increase of 167% year-over-year.
  • However, luxury condos spent 26 fewer days on the market compared to the previous quarter (Fig. 4) – capturing the impact of high season and recent momentum.
  • Still, taking only 58 days to sell, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove emerged as the second-fastest-selling market in Miami for Q2 2023, behind Surfside & Bal Harbour (40 days).


Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2023 – Fig. 4

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2023 – Fig. 4


— Q2 2023 - Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Inventory: Lowest in Miami, Slight Seller's Market


Q2 2023 closed with 8 months of inventory. As expected, high season momentum helped shrink market inventory over the course of the second quarter. In line with the overall Miami market trend, inventory was up year-over-year but dropped quarter-over-quarter as seen below:

  • On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory was down 27% from 11 months in March 2023.
  • On a year-over-year basis, inventory increased 100% from a record low of 4 months in June 2022 - its lowest point in our 7-year study.
  • At 8 months, Coral Gables and Coconut Grove continued reporting the lowest levels of inventory of all the Miami neighborhoods under review

Considering an ideal market should hold only 9 to 12 months of inventory – the combined neighborhood of Coral Gables & Coconut Grove was one of the first to shift back into a slightly seller's market position in the second quarter. Still, buyers and sellers benefit from equal opportunity at the table in this historically-significant pairing - keeping the market sable with healthy competition.

Those looking to buy a luxury home in these lush, scenic neighborhoods can search Coral Gables or Coconut Grove condos for sale here.


Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Jun. 2023 - Fig. 5

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Jun. 2023 - Fig. 5


A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

If you'd like a free market evaluation of your luxury property, please call, email, or chat to connect with one of our experienced local real estate professionals.


— Q2 2023 - Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market: Conclusion


As noted in the 
overall Miami market statistics for Q1 2023, sales in this historically significant submarket may have paced down compared to an above-average Q2 2022, but the statistic still reported signs of stable growth with a boost from high season. Sales were higher quarter-over-quarter as well as greater than any quarter noted in 2020 or pre-pandemic years – keeping the market in positive territory.

Expectedly, the 12-month Sales Trendline corrected into a positive trajectory after reporting a negative curve for the past three quarters. With the third quarter known to be one of the softest (as per historical data), we, as luxury real estate experts, expect the market to pace down over Q3 2023, but still have enough momentum to keep inventory levels down.

On the price front, the Price per Square Foot jumped 32% year-over-year – reporting the highest gain of all the Miami neighborhoods under review. At $999/Sq. Ft., sellers received top-dollar for their luxury condos in Coral Gables and Coconut Grove.

Following the overall Miami trend of lower quarter-over-quarter Days on Market, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove too reported a reduction – owing to peak season momentum kicking in during Spring (as it does each year for Miami's cyclical market).

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove (collectively) closed Q2 2023 as a balanced market, in line with the overall Miami market. With the lowest levels of inventory (8 months) of all Miami neighborhoods under review, the statistic fell a notch below the 9-12-month range of an ideal market, giving buyers and sellers equal opportunity in terms of negotiations and value.

As real estate experts, we expect the following factors to influence trends going into the second half of 2023:

  • Owing to our business-friendly, low corporate tax environment, we expect steady buyer demand to fuel the luxury condo market, as employment rates and wages are projected to grow further.
  • In Miami's real estate market, where two-thirds of foreign buyers pay in cash (substantiated by a MiamiRealtor 2022 report), we do not expect high interest rates to deter buyers.
  • In light of Miami's new status as the #2 Happiest and Healthiest City in the U.S., combined with our nature-dominated landscape, exceptional waterfront, and fitness-oriented lifestyle, we expect more wellness-focused individuals to settle here.
  • Fueled by a surge in new and branded luxury condos such as the Mr. C Residences by the Cipriani brothers, Edgewater's Edition Residences, or Brickell's Dolce & Gabbana Residences, we expect to attract more well-heeled buyers from across the globe.
  • We further expect limited pre-construction deliveries and stable buyer demand to keep the market balanced in this dynamic pairing.

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Questions or comments about the stats? Want more info on Miami condos? Contact Sep at sniakan@blackbookproperties.com or call 305-725-0566.

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