As a top boutique Miami real estate brokerage with expert boots on the ground in all of Miami's top neighborhoods, it's not a big surprise that we nailed our predictions for 2023 and 2024. So it's time we shared with you our Miami real estate market predictions for 2025, and where we see this very unique market going. 

At the beginning of 2023, when most analysts forecasted a housing crash with rising interest rates and rumors of an upcoming recession, we held our ground and predicted that "Miami will still be (one of) the top 3 hottest major real estate markets in the U.S." and prices will go UP! 

Similarly, at the beginning of 2024, we continued to be bullish on Miami, particularly the luxury condo markets. We predicted prices would not fall, but continue to slowly rise, even while inventory increased pushing the market slightly into favoring buyers. We also expected to see some pricing pressure on specific sub markets, like older condo buildings and some investment product. 

Fast-forward to year-end and the housing market has performed as we expected, with prices for condos priced $1 million and higher reaching a record high at $997/square foot in the second quarter, and outpricing last year ($970 in Q3-24 vs. $934 in Q3-23) and an astounding 30% from just five years ago ($970 in Q3-23 vs. $747 in Q3-19). (Look below for a snapshot of our exclusive quarterly price analysis mapping the past 6 years.)

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2024*

*For individual in-house data analyses, consult with us via email or phone.

— 2024 – Another Golden Year for Miami's Luxury Real Estate

2024 has been another golden year for Miami's luxury housing market. While 2022 and 2023 were what we called "transformative," 2024 has been "foundational," cementing what we see as a new normal. In fact, we have now seen a new luxury normal as well—$1 million, a price once associated with luxury, is now a fairly average price tag for a Miami condo. The Miami luxury market has emerged as now starting at about $2.5 million and easily going into the $10 million and $15 million price bands, creating an "ultra luxury" market as well that has continued demand. 

Miami has also managed to stand out and avoid a slowing national housing market, with outstanding quarterly condo sales that outperformed pre-pandemic years and retained enough momentum to compete with the super-charged pandemic-year market.

However, that demand has slowed a bit. Unpacking the quarterly sales chart for luxury condos below shows how the market has moved forward with sustainable growth, although we anticipate that Miami's luxury condo market will continue to soften in the year's final quarter, consistent with historical trends. However, we also expect the market to remain stable within its broader scope and parameters established post-pandemic. Fig. 1.2 below captures how Miami's luxury condo still clocked in almost double the sales compared to pre-2019 levels.

Overall Miami Quarterly Luxury Condo Sales 2015 - 2024

Overall, Florida emerged as the second-most valuable housing market in the U.S. in 2023, leaving behind the likes of New York, according to a 2023 Zillow study also cited by Bloomberg. Florida's housing market value share stood at $3,846 billion compared to New York's $3,690 billion – setting the stage for growth with price gains that we've seen in 2024. Bloomberg also named Coral Gables as the priciest neighborhood in the nation in 2024, beating out Beverly Hills. And for New Yorkers, Miami is the most searched metro area to move to according to Redfin. 

Moreover, with Florida's tax friendly policies, notably no state income tax, the number of millionaires in Miami has increased by 78% from 2013 to 2023, as reported by Fortune based on a report by Henley & Partners, a global firm in residence and citizenship by investment. Miami also has the most millionaires, centi-millionaires, and billionaires, with predictions for these ultra-high-networth populations to increase over the next two decades. According to the same firm, in 2024 Miami is the #1 destination city for those with $100 million in investable assets. Miami was also the nation's hottest rental market in 2024, according to a report by RentCafe.

So what does this mean for Miami's real estate market in 2025? 

— What's Ahead: Our Miami Real Estate Market Predictions for 2025

Steady Market Demand in 2025 in New Luxury & Ultra-Luxury Sectors

First and foremost, let's answer the question we are getting asked every day: Will Miami's housing market crash in 2025? The answer is a resounding NO! Considering that prices continue to report single-digit gains and that the average days properties spend on the market remain consistent year-over-year, and have even dropped in some neighborhoods, Miami's luxury condo market reports a positive outlook with a steady pace even as it moves into a softer but stable cycle. Think of this year as that middle stretch of a marathon, where you're focused on keeping a steady, consistent pace. 

Let's remember, over the past few years, Miami has had a major image makeover. We're no longer just a vacation destination, but a place to live and call home. This, paired with the perceived security benefits of condo living opposed to cumbersome single-family home maintenance could be the major draw for domestic baby boomers looking to downsize their empty nests and millennials and ex-pats looking for a high quality of life.

Indeed, while our no personal income tax laws have always been a major attraction for the deep-pocketed, latest research shows that Florida is the No. 1 state of choice for the young and wealthy. A recent study by SmartAsset shows that Florida gained a total of 2,175 in-migraters aged 26 to 35, earning at least $200,000 per year in adjusted gross income. 

This, paired with Ken Griffin's latest claim that Miami could replace New York as the world's financial center, and we have a vibrant economy that's poised for exponential growth.

Not to forget, our international quality of life, FIFA moving its headquarters to Miami ahead of the 2026 World Cup, and influential names such as Lionel Messi and Jeff Bezos picking up homes in our top neighborhoods have all turned the international spotlight on Miami real estate – leading us to expect steady market demand going into 2025.

Prices to Stay Up in 2025 for Luxury Segments. Older Condos May Have Price Pressure

About a decade ago, a pre-construction waterfront condo would close for about $400 per square foot. However, today, most waterfront pre-construction condos will command nothing less than $1000 a square foot. This shows how Miami has evolved into a global playground for not just millionaires, but multi-millionaire and billionaires. A 2023 study by Bloomberg shows that Miami rounded up in the world's top 5 cities where the super-rich (read ultra-high-net-worth) have homes.

Wealthy out-of-staters have been buying homes at extraordinary prices in Miami, reshaping our luxury housing market. As mentioned above, luxury condo prices have increased by 30% compared to just five years ago in 2019. 

With more than 91,000 New Yorkers relocating to Florida between 2021 and 2022, followed by about 50,000 Californians, it's easy to see how our (relatively) affordable luxury housing market has become a top attraction for domestic buyers looking to escape high income tax states. In 2023, 71,000 New Yorkers moved to Florida, according to the Miami Association of Realtors. 

Our foreign buyers from Latin America and Canada were not far behind. In 2023, foreign buyers bought about $5.1 billion worth of South Florida residential property. Of this, Miami-Dade received 72% of the volume. And thus far in 2024, Florida's top five international buyers by dollar volume have Canada topping with list with ($1.3 billion), followed by Brazil ($695 million), Argentina ($608 million), the U.K. ($317 million) and Colombia ($307 million).   

So, what's our forecast for Miami real estate market prices in 2025? We expect luxury housing prices to grow in 2025, with high-end brands such as 888 by Dolce & Gabbana, Bentley Residences, Cipriani, the St. Regis Residences Miami, and Four Seasons Private Residences Coconut Grove adding value and appeal to the latest slew of new construction condos in Miami that have been in one of the strongest building cycles in Miami's history, adding to successful projects like Aston Martin, Missoni Baia, and several more. 

We further expect to see a bigger rift in pricing between older and newer condos, as the older product that has not been able to keep up with maintenance is likely to experience downward price pressure with hefty assessment bills and bullish developers coming into play. We anticipate a big chunk of these older condos to go on the market for sale to developers who will take charge with a bulk buyout, knock them down, and build ultra-luxury in their place.

Investor product, like short-term rental condos, may also see a slight decrease in pricing as more inventory from preconstruction projects makes its way to the market, and the numbers don't make as much sense with prices remaining stable.

Luxury Rental Market to Be Strong in 2025 After Slight 2024 Correction

As mentioned above, throughout the majority of 2023 and 2024, Miami held onto its title as the hottest or most competitive market for apartments in the country owing to a 97.1% occupancy rate and high prices. As of December 2024, according to Zumper's rental price trends, the median rent for all bedroom counts and property types in Miami is $3,150. This is +68% higher than the national average. The average rent for a 1-bedroom apartment in Miami was stable year-over-year at $2,783. But the median rent for an apartment in Brickell is $4,750 and $5,653 for an apartment in Edgewater. 

We expect this demand in luxury rental pricing to continue as we head into 2025 as the market as more and more high earnings move into the city. There could be some downward pressure in certain buildings, especially those that are older and cannot compete with the luxury amenities of newer buildings. We believe that the premium rental market, inclusive of waterfront, water view, or very high-end apartments will experience some price appreciation in 2025 even as inventory stays tight.

Mortgage Rates to Stay Around 6% in 2025

With the 30-year mortgage rates known to follow the 10-year treasury pattern, we expect interest rates to remain steady around the 6% mark during 2025. Long-term interest rates were predicted to fall over the next five years, starting in early 2024, but we have not seen this happen yet. We expect people to get used to interest rates staying around this mark, and more investors get off the sidelines and put their properties on the market, pushing the balance somewhat into buyer's hands. 

Inventory to Increase in 2025

Considering interest rates may not go down appreciably in 2025, we still expect inventory levels to go up in the year ahead. This is likely due to two factors:

•       First, we expect sellers, mostly investors, who are looking for higher returns on their investments, equivalent to the double-digit growth seen in the few pandemic years, to start to want to sell as prices will modest gains amidst market stability.
•       Second, quite a few pre-construction condos are scheduled for a 2025 completion, including Una Residences, Lofty Brickell, and twin-tower Aria Reserve among others. 

Summing up our Miami real estate market predictions for 2025, we expect steady market demand to drive price appreciation, rental prices to cool off, mortgage rates to drop, and luxury condo inventory levels to report an uptick. We further expect Miami to continue outperforming on every metric and seal its position as a global city of choice appealing to a wide array of investors and home buyers.

Contact us today to learn how the changes in Miami real estate market in 2025 may  impact your personal property plans.

FAQs for 2025 Miami Real Estate Predictions:

What is the outlook for Miami real estate in 2025?

Overall, the outlook is positive for Miami real estate in 2025, especially for the luxury and ultra-luxury sectors. With all market indicators pointing towards sustainable growth and stable prices with a slight appreciation, we expect the luxury housing market to perform well in the next year.

Is Miami real estate cooling off?

With steady demand and prices poised to increase, Miami's luxury housing market is showing no signs of cooling off in 2025. We expect the luxury condo market to continue as a balanced market, offering buyers and sellers equal value and opportunity in a global city poised for growth. Some segments may lean towards a buyer's market.

Is Miami real estate overpriced in 2025?

Considering prices have continued to appreciate for luxury condos, even as the frenzied pandemic-year market is behind us, it would be incorrect to conclude that Miami real estate is overpriced. Investors should note that the price gains observed over the past few years have helped the market cross a major growth threshold and that prices are highly unlikely to rebound to their pre-pandemic levels. Furthermore, luxury condos are being purchased and Miami's ultra-luxury condo segment is growing. 

Are Miami real estate prices dropping?

It's a question everyone is asking, but we do not think that prices will drop now or in 2025. Prices have steadily increased over the past several years, and these increases have been consolidated in the market, adding value to owners and buyers alike. While there has been slow-down in overall transaction volumes, we've seen nothing in the data to support that prices will drop overall. Older buildings, those that are 30-40 years old may seem some pricing pressure and some investor product for short-term rentals may seem some price adjustments.