As noted in the overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Report for Q4 2022, the collective neighborhood of Coral Gables & Coconut Grove closed 2022 with market statistics showing a strong year – its second-highest sales in a year – putting an end to any rumors of a housing crisis in the Miami and this favorite set of neighborhoods.

Considering sales volumes dipped compared to a record-setting year like 2021, the luxury condo market in this dynamic pairing still showed signs of good health. Prices posted year-over-year gains (annually as well as for Q4-22), properties took just 41 days to sell (on an annual basis), and inventory expectedly increased but stayed below pre-pandemic levels.

This, coupled with insights into the first month of 2023, we, as real estate experts, expect Miami's luxury condo market to resume growth as high season approaches over the spring. For now, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove closed the year as a balanced market – offering buyers and sellers equal opportunity at the negotiation table.

Read below for more details and statistics on how this collective Miami neighborhood performed in a 2022-over-2021 analysis, as well as against the quarterly overall Miami market trends in terms of sales, prices, days on market, and inventory in our exclusive, full-length report for luxury condos in Coral Gables & Coconut Grove this Q4 2022.

For the purpose of this Miami submarket luxury condo report, we've only included properties priced $1 million and above.

— Key Q4 and 2022 Housing Market Stats: Coral Gables & Coconut Grove

Annual (2022) - Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Highlights:

• 2022 was the Second-highest sales in a year ever; Annual sales down -11.3% from 2021
• Price per Square Foot up to $758/square foot – one of lowest entry points for buyers into Miami's luxury condo market, behind Downtown Miami ($724/SF)
• Annual Days on Market down -31% to 41 days in 2022-over-2021 analysis – fastest-selling market in Miami overall
• Lowest year-end inventory of all Miami neighborhoods (13 months)
• Coral Gables and Coconut Grove closed 2022 as a balanced market

Q4 2022 - Coral Gables and Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Highlights:

• Q4 2022 sales down -56.9% year-over-year (coming off of record 2021)
• 12-month trendline stayed negative between Q3 and Q4 2022
• Price per Square Foot flat year-over-year at about $719/square foot – the lowest entry point for buyers into Miami's luxury condo market
• Sales Price up 4% year-over-year
• Days on Market up 90% year-over-year
• Inventory up 160% year-over-year to 13 months

Table of Contents

1. Q4 2022 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Market Stats: Sales Trends
2. Q4 2022 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Market Stats: Price Trends
3. Q4 2022 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Market Stats: Days on Market Trends
4. Q4 2022 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Market Stats: Inventory Trends
5. Q4 2022 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Market: Conclusion
   
   

— Luxury Condo Sales Trends - Annual + 4Q Sales Down

Q4 Sales down -56.9% year-over-year.

Echoing the overall Miami market trend for Q4 2022, the combined neighborhoods of Coral Gables and Coconut Grove reported a drop in year-over-year sales:

• Q4 2022 vs Q4 2021. Sales declined -56.9% year-over-year, down from 65 in Q4 last year to 28 for the same quarter 2022. (Fig. 1)
• Q4 2022 vs Q3 2022. Sales decreased -3.4% year-over-year, slightly down from 29 in the previous quarter to 28 in Q4 2022. (Fig. 1.1)
• With the luxury housing market pacing itself after being in overdrive for more than a year, as well as Miami's seasonal slowdown setting in (as per historical data, last two quarters of the year are the slowest), sales in this pairing of beautiful neighborhoods closed the year soft. However, as real estate experts, we expect the market to pick up pace as it approaches high season during spring 2023.
  
  

Annual Sales down -11%. Second-highest sales in a year. Negative Trendline.

With a record opening to the first half, it was expected of Coral Gables & Coconut Grove to close 2022 on a strong note, even though sales paced down over the last two quarters. In step with the overall Miami market trend for annual sales, this combined grouping reported:

• 2022 vs 2021. Sales decreased -11.3%, down from 238 annual sales in the record-setting year of 2021 to 211 in 2022. (Fig. 1a)
• Posting its second-biggest year of sales ever, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove (collectively) reported higher annual sales statistics compared to 2020 (109 total sales), 2019 (89 total sales), 2018 (101 total sales), and before. (Fig. 2.1)
  
  

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2022 - Fig. 2.1

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2022 - Fig. 2.2

As the market cooled down in anticipation of high season in 2023 (Spring and early Summer is generally Miami's peak season, as noted historically), the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 2.3 expectedly stayed negative between Q3 and Q4 2022.

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

— Luxury Condo Price Trends: Up Annually, Flat YoY in Q4 – Lowest P/SF in Miami Overall

Annual $/Square Foot up 9% to $758, Median Sales Price also up

Partly in line with the overall market trend of higher year-over-year annual prices per square foot and flat Median Prices, luxury condos in this Coral Gables & Coconut Grove grouping reported strong returns (Fig. 1a):

• Price per Square Foot increased 9%, up from $696 in 2021 to $758 in 2022.
• Median Sales Price also increased 11.4%, up from $1,520,000 in 2021 to $1,694,000 in 2022.
• At $758/square foot, this historically-significant market offered buyers one of the lowest entry points into Miami's luxury condo market, just behind Downtown Miami with a price of $724/square foot.

Q4 2022 Price/Square Foot flat at $719, Median Sales Price up year-over-year

Partly in line with the overall Miami market trend of higher year-over-year Price per Square Foot and a lower Median Price, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove reported the following pricing statistics (Fig. 1):

• Q4 2022 vs Q4 2021. Price per Square Foot stayed mostly flat, adjusting by -2.5%, slightly down from $737 in Q4 2021 to $719 in Q4 this year.
  • At $719/square foot, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove was the lowest entry point for buyers into Miami's luxury condo market.
  • Looking at the 5-year snapshot of quarterly prices per square foot below (Fig. 3), we found that prices in this grouping closed in the mid-ranges for Q4 - giving sellers fair value for their luxury condo investments.
  • Median Sales Price increased 4%, up from $1,515,000 in Q4 2021 to $1,575,000 in Q4 2022.

• Q4 2022 vs Q3 2022. Price per Square Foot declined by 5.2%, down from $758 in Q3 2022 to $719 in Q4 2022. (Fig. 1.1)
  • Median Sales Price remained flat, posting an adjustment of 1.6%, slightly up from $1,550,000 in Q3 2022 to $1,575,000 in Q4 this year.
    
    

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2022 - Fig. 3

—Q4 2022 Days on Market Down – Fastest-Selling Market of 2022 in Miami

Days on Market down 31% on annual basis, up 90% 4Q22-over-4Q21

Consistent with the overall Miami luxury condo market trend, the Days on Market (DOM) for luxury condos in Coral Gables & Coconut Grove dropped significantly on an annual basis:

• 2022 vs 2021. Days on Market declined 31%, with luxury condos spending 18 fewer days on the market compared to 2021. (Fig. 1a)
• With luxury condos taking just over a month to sell in 2022 (41 days), Coral Gables and Coconut Grove (collectively) emerged as the fastest-selling market out of all the Miami neighborhoods under our review.
• Q4 2022 vs Q4 2021. Days on Market increased 90%, indicating luxury condos spent 35 extra days on market compared to a year-ago. (Fig. 1)

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2022 – Fig. 4

—Q4 2022 Inventory at Lowest in Miami – Coral Gables & Coconut Grove in a Balanced Market

Q4 2022 closed with 13 months of Inventory

Following 8 quarters of frenzied sales that saw inventory touch record lows, it was expected that inventory would post a correction as soon as the market took a pause. With sales slowing over the last two quarters, luxury housing inventory stats for this combined neighborhood expanded to 13 months. As the trend closed just above the 9-12-month range of an ideal market, this previously seller-dominated market shifted into a balanced market – offering buyers more choices and sellers good value on their investments.

• On an annual basis, inventory was up from 5 months in December last year to 13 months by year-end 2022 – an uptick of 160%. (Fig. 5)
• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory increased from 5 months in September 2022 to 13 months in December – again reporting an uptick of 160%.
• Coral Gables & Coconut Grove (collectively) reported the lowest year-end inventory out of all Miami neighborhoods under review in our overall market study.

As mentioned earlier in this report, with peak season just around the corner, we, as real estate experts, expect this additional inventory to correct – keeping this pairing of tropically lush neighborhoods a balanced market through 2023. Meanwhile, we would suggest buyers to make the most of this surplus inventory by searching for a suitable home or investment condo, here in this well-priced luxury condo market (compared to the beaches).

Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2022 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

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— Q4 2022 Coral Gables & Coconut Grove Luxury Condo Market Conclusion

Although 2022 did not turn out to be a record-setting year like 2021, the luxury condo market in this dynamic pairing did experience great buyer interest, and was the second best year on record. Following the overall sales trend seen in our Q4 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Report, the collective neighborhood of Coral Gables & Coconut Grove reported its second-highest annual sales on record, in spite of a dip in 2022-over-2021 sales and a slowdown over Q4 2022.

The 12-month Sales Trendline, expectedly, remained negative from Q3 2022 to Q4 2022, owing to a seasonal slowdown – just like in the overall market.

In terms of prices, the Price per Square Foot for this grouping, like the overall Miami trend, reported an increase in its 2022-over-2021 Price per Square Foot, but stability in 4Q22-over-4Q21 prices. Considering Coral Gables & Coconut Grove remains one of the most affordable entry points into Miami's luxury condo market, these pricing stats and gains show that sellers received incredible value for their luxury condos throughout 2022.

Capturing intense buyer interest, this pair of beautiful neighborhoods reported the lowest Days on Market of all Miami neighborhoods in 2022. With properties taking just over a month to sell (41 days), Coral Gables & Coconut Grove also emerged as the fastest-selling market of the year based on our exclusive statistical analysis for luxury condos. 

In Q4 2022, Coral Gables & Coconut Grove, again, reported one of the lowest levels of inventory in all of Miami. Even with levels spiking towards the end of the year, with 13 months of inventory, this dynamic pairing emerged as a balanced market, offering buyers and sellers a leveled playing field – a market situation we expect to continue over the course of 2023.

Heading into 2023, as real estate experts, we're expecting the following factors to influence market trends and luxury housing statistics for Coconut Grove & Coral Gables:

• As high season approaches, and with fewer luxury condo deliveries scheduled in the immediate future, inventory is expected to correct quickly over the next few quarters.
• More buyers and sellers are expected to come off the sidelines as interest rates show signs of normalizing.
• Wealth migration and business migration, supported by our tax-saving and pro-business policies, are expected to continue driving demand for luxury condos in the lush boulevards of Coral Gables & Coconut Grove.
• Given our position as a safe investment haven for global citizens, we expect our foreign buyer market share to expand further.
• As Miami's brand value becomes more recognized worldwide (read this Knight Frank Report ranking Miami as the second "prime" real estate market in the world), we expect more high net worth individuals to snap up vacation condos and second homes with good rental income potential here.
  
  
  

Questions or comments about the stats? Want more info on Miami condos? Contact Sep at sniakan@blackbookproperties.com or call 305-725-0566.