Riding the wave of record-highs and record-lows, the luxury condo market in Miami Beach carries forward its phenomenal performance from Q1 2021 and Q2 2021 into Q3 2021. Posting record, triple-digit growth year-over-year, all Miami Beach neighborhoods reported strong sales, but with an expected dip compared to the second quarter, with South Beach emerging as the best-performing neighborhood in terms of sales growth (277%).

In terms of prices and inventory, Fisher Island emerges as a clear favorite as always – posting the most expensive Price per Square Foot, most expensive Median Sale Price ($5.8 million), record-low inventory at only 5 months, and the neighborhood with the highest percentage growth in year-over-year price per square foot, offering maximum returns for sellers in Miami Beach. South Beach, Mid-North Beach, and Surfside and Bal Harbour – all tied for second place with the lowest months of inventory in all of Miami. 

Miami Beach, just like the overall Miami Luxury Condo Market for Q3 2021, is in its second quarter of a seller's market with only 8 months of inventory. After years of being a buyer-friendly market, sellers are experiencing unprecedented control of negotiations as they are presented with multiple offers typically over asking price. Read on for more trends in our exclusive and detailed analysis on how each Miami Beach neighborhood fared against each other, as well as against the overall Miami luxury condo trends in Q3 2021.

For the purposes of this report, we've included in "Miami Beach" the sub-neighborhoods of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North-Beach, Sunny Isles Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, and Fisher Island as part of our Miami Beach grouping. Also, this luxury condo submarket report only features properties priced at $1 million and above.

Miami Beach Overall Luxury Condo Market Highlights - Q3 2021:

• Q3 2021 Sales increase 144.5% year-over-year -- South Beach is the highest percentage contributor while Sunny Isles Beach contributes the highest volume
• 12-month Sales Trendline stays positive for 4 consecutive quarters -- Q4 2020 through to Q3 2021
• Median Sales Price down 8.5% year-over-year
• Price per Square Foot up 16% year-over-year to $974
• Days on Market down year-over-year
• Inventory down 83.7% year-over-year to 8 months

Miami Beach Sub-neighborhood Highlights - Q3 2021:

• Winner: South Beach leads Q3 sales growth in Miami Beach with highest percentage (277%) year-over-year increase -- also 3rd-highest sales growth of all Miami neighborhoods 
• 12-Month Sales Trendline keeps positive across the board
• Winner: Fisher Island luxury condos offered maximum value to sellers in Miami Beach as well as overall Miami with the highest percentage growth (77%) in year-over-year Price per Sq. Ft.
• Winner: Fisher Island reports highest Median Sales Price of $5.8 million in all of Miami
• Winner: Fisher Island continues to be the most expensive neighborhood in all of Miami, priced at $1,418/sq. ft. -- maintains top-spot for 4 consecutive quarters
• Fisher Island reports highest percentage decline in year-over-year Days on Market (-67%), closely followed by Sunny Isles Beach (-52%)
• Fisher Island reports lowest inventory (5 months) in Miami again, closely followed by South Beach, Mid-North Beach, plus Surfside and Bal Harbour (again at 7 months each)
• Miami Beach's luxury condo market continues as a seller's market

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2021 YoY (Number of sales)

Miami Beach Overall Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2021 YoY (Median Sale Price)

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2021 YoY (Median Sales Price / SqFt)

Table of Contents

1. Overall Q3 2021 Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
2. Q3 2021 South Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
3. Q3 2021 Mid and North Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
4. Q3 2021 Surfside & Bal Harbour Luxury Condo Market Trends
5. Q3 2021 Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
6. Q3 2021 Fisher Island Luxury Condo Market Trends
7. Conclusion - Q3 2021 Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Report
   
   

Miami Beach: Highest Luxury Condo Sales Volume in a 3rd Quarter

144.5% growth in year-over-year sales - seasonal sales dip - positive trendline. Consistent with and contributing to the positive sales trend seen in the Overall Miami Luxury Condo report for Q3 2021, Miami Beach (collectively) reports its highest sales volume in a third-quarter since pre-2015 (Fig 2.1). As expected of a year with triple-digit growth, this coastal district reported a 144.5% uptick in year-over-year sales, and an even better 177% increase over the pre-pandemic sales of Q3 2019.

With all Miami Beach sub-markets contributing high sales volumes this third-quarter, the market posted immense growth. Sunny Isles Beach, with its highest sales volume (133), and South Beach with its highest percentage increase in year-over-year sales (277%), turn out to be the biggest contributors to the uptick seen in Miami Beach. (See Markets at a Glance – Q3 2021 YoY Number of Sales chart above.)

Knowing that the second quarter of the year is the strongest (as seen in Fig. 2.1 for previous years), it was expected for sales to take a seasonal break in this third quarter. Interestingly, sales dropped by almost half (42.5%) between Q2 and Q3 this year, and declined 15.2% against Q1 2021.

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2021 - Fig. 2.1

A closer look at the Monthly Sales in Fig. 2.2 reveals that ever since volumes peaked in April, sales have been gradually declining in Miami Beach – much like the overall Miami trend. September's sales are less than half (82) of their peak in April (198). A few possible reasons for this month-to-month decline could be:

• the market is adjusting seasonally (as seen in previous years of Fig. 1.2)
• the luxury condo market hit a ceiling and numbers are gradually correcting to a regular (pre-pandemic) pace
• inventory levels are too tight to support demand.

With fourth quarter results due in a few short months, it will be clearer which of the above hold. Especially with travel opening up ahead of Miami Art Week, we will be keeping a close watch on how Miami Beach numbers respond by year-end. Nonetheless, as real estate market experts, we expect Miami Beach's luxury condo market to close the year on an exceptionally strong note in this year of record-highs.

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 2.2

Miami Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Owing to consistently strong volumes, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 2.3 stayed expectedly positive, despite declining sales for the last several months. Maintaining its upward curve for a fourth consecutive quarter, the trendline has stayed positive from Q4 2020 through to Q3 2021

Miami Beach: Luxury Condo Prices Report Mixed Trends

Price per Square Foot up 16% to $974, Median Price down 8.5% year-over-year. Keeping with the mixed price trends seen in overall Miami, Miami Beach reported an increase in year-over-year price per square foot and a decrease in its median sales price.

The Price per Square Foot increased 16% year-over-year - up from $840 in Q3 last year to $974 for the same quarter 2021. However, it is lower than the second quarter's peak of $1,036/square foot (Fig. 3). Additionally, the Median Sales Price declined by 8.5% year-over-year to $1,830,000 for Q3, down from $2,000,000 for the same quarter 2020 (Fig. 1).

This inconsistency in Price per Square Foot and Median Sales Price trends could possibly be due to sales of smaller (in size), amenity-packed luxury condos dominating the quarter, which tend to command a higher price per square foot even as the median price declines.

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per square foot below (Fig. 3) reveals that luxury condo prices closed in the higher ranges in Miami Beach. Only 6% lower compared to Q2 this year, sellers still received great value for their luxury condos in this coastal district.

Miami Beach Quarterly Sales Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 3

Miami Beach: Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY

52.3% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. In line with the overall Miami luxury condo market trend, luxury condos in Miami Beach posted a decline in their quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year Days on Market. This shows that most of the oldest  listings have sold off and demand and buyer-seller communication is at its strongest.

In Q3 2021, luxury condos spent 93 fewer days on market compared to Q3 last year and 11 fewer days compared to Q2 this year (Fig. 4).

Miami Beach Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 4

Miami Beach: Inventory Down YoY – Seller's Market Strong

Q3 2021 closes with 8 months of inventory. Just like the overall market trend in Miami, luxury condo inventory dropped year-over-year in Miami Beach. At 8 months, inventory dropped an astounding 83.7% year-over-year - down from 49 months in September 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory stayed flat at 8 months, the same as in June this year (Fig. 5).

With demand outrunning supply, Miami Beach inventory wiped out at record pace over this past year. As levels have dropped below the ideal 9-12-month range of a balanced market, sellers have the upper hand in negotiations. Potential buyers are advised to put in strong offers (preferably above the asking price) if they would like to secure their desired home by the ocean since inventory is very tight. With sellers receiving highly competitive offers, buyers are advised to be aggressive or perhaps wait a couple of cycles to make a purchase.

Miami Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – number of active listings + number of pending listings, divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Looking for a market valuation on your Miami Beach condo? Call, chat, or email us for a FREE market evaluation of your property to make the most of this strong seller's market.

Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Q3 2021 South Beach (ZIP 33139)

South Beach: Luxury Condo Sales Up YoY - Lead Sales Growth in Miami Beach

277.3% growth in year-over-year sales - positive trendline. With a 277.3% increase in year-over-year sales, South Beach leads quarterly sales growth in Miami Beach. The popular beach destination also posts the third-highest growth out of all other Miami neighborhoods under review, right behind Edgewater (386%) and Brickell (355%).

Contributing to and in sync with the positive sales trend seen in the overall Miami report for Q3 2021, this popular vacation destination posts its highest sales in a third-quarter (Fig. 7.1). Sales are also 151.5% stronger than the pre-pandemic volumes of Q3 2019.

As the second quarter of the year is usually the strongest (as seen of past patterns in Fig. 7.1), the market takes an expected break. Q3 sales are 50.3% lower than Q2 and 27.2% lower than Q1 values this year. With monthly sales gradually declining since April this year (Fig. 7.2), it begs the question whether the market is temporarily stopping to catch its breath or ready to normalize after an exceptional performance.

Owing to the record numbers posted over the past couple of quarters, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 7.2 keeps its positive, upward curve from Q4 2020 through to Q3 2021.

South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2021 - Fig. 7.1 

South Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 7.2

South Beach: Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot Up YoY

Price per Square Foot up 19.1% to $1,300, Median Sales Price flat year-over-year. Just like the overall market report, South Beach also reported mixed price trends this third quarter. The Price per Square Foot in this popular beach neighborhood increased 19.1%, up from $1,092 in Q3 2020 to $1,300 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 8).

On the other hand, the Median Sales Price stayed flat year-over-year, posting a marginal decline of 1.8%, slightly down from $2,037,500 in Q3 2020 to $2,000,000 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 6).

This slight inconsistency in Price per Square Foot and Sales Price trends could be due to third quarter sales being dominated by smaller (in size), amenity-rich condos that command a higher price per square foot.

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly Price per Square Foot below shows that prices stayed in the higher ranges in South Beach. With price per square foot consistently increasing since Q4 2020, it is evident that South Beach sellers are getting great value for their luxury condo investments. The vacation hotspot also posts the second-highest price per square foot in Miami at $1300, just behind Fisher Island's luxury condos ($1,418/Sq. Ft.).

South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Square Foot 2016-2021 - Fig. 8

South Beach: Days on Market Down YoY

41% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. Mostly in line with the overall Miami market trend of lower days on market, South Beach posted a reduction in year-over-year numbers, but increase in quarter-over-quarter days.

Luxury condos in South Beach spent 69 fewer days on market compared to Q3 last year. However, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, luxury condos spent 17 extra days on market compared to Q2 this year (Fig. 9). This increase could mainly be due to paused listings being re-activated as sellers look to make the most of this feverish market. The days on market for such listings represent the total time spent on the market, both before and any the pause. It could also be an indication that supply is not meeting the demand and buyers are waiting. 

South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 - Fig. 9

South Beach: Inventory Down YoY – Continues as One of Lowest in Miami

Q3 2021 closes with 7 months of Inventory. Consistent with the overall Miami trend, luxury condo inventory in South Beach decreased quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year. At 7 months, inventory is down an impressive 84% from 44 months in September 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory stayed flat at 7 months between June and September (Fig. 10).

South Beach shares the spot for "second-lowest inventory" in the Miami Beach areas with Mid-North Beach and the combined neighborhood of Surfside and Bal Harbour again this quarter. With a sellers' market in full force, luxury condo owners in South Beach are receiving multiple, highly competitive offers from buyers, enjoying the full leverage of this favorable climate.

South Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 10

Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Q3 2021 Mid and North Beach (ZIP 33140 & 33141)

Mid-North Beach: Luxury Condo Sales Up YoY

64.3% increase in year-over-year sales - positive trendline. Keeping with the positive sales trend seen in the overall Miami market, Mid-North Beach reported a 64.3% increase in year-over-year sales. Volumes also increased by 67.4% compared to the pre-pandemic sales of Q3 2019.

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, sales are down 53.5% compared to Q2 and 38.7% lower compared to Q1 this year (Fig. 12.1). Sales have also consistently been declining since June this year – down from 35 sales in June to just 9 in September – a drop of 74.3% over three months (Fig. 12.2). This could be due to the market taking its usual, seasonal break (as seen historically), inventory being too low to support the market's pace, or numbers normalizing after posting unusual gains over the past few months – fourth quarter results are expected to bring further clarity to this situation. 

Nonetheless, considering that Mid-North Beach has been posting positive sales over the past couple of quarters, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 12.2 maintains its positive trajectory from Q4 2020 through to Q3 2021.

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Quarterly Sales 2015-2021 - Fig. 12.1

Mid-Beach and North-Beach 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2

Mid-North Beach: Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot Up YoY

Price per Square Foot up 13.6% to $942, Median Sales Price flat year-over-year. Mostly in line with the mixed price trends recorded in the overall market report, Mid-North Beach posted an increase in its median price per square foot, but sales price stayed flat year-over-year.

The Price per Square Foot in Mid-North Beach increased 13.6%, up from $829 in Q3 2020 to $942 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 13). The Median Sales Price kept flat (+0.9%) year-over-year, slightly up from $1,362,500 in Q3 2020 to $1,375,000 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 11).

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly Price per Square Foot below shows that prices closed in the higher ranges for Mid-North Beach. The price per square foot hovered close to previous quarter's $965/Sq. Ft. This, combined with year-over-year gains, shows that sellers in this quieter part of Miami Beach continued getting good value for their luxury condos.

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 13

Mid-North Beach: Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY

51% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. Keeping with the overall Miami market trend of lower days on market, Mid-North Beach posted a reduction in quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year numbers.

Luxury condos in Mid-North Beach spent 80 fewer days on market compared to Q3 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, luxury condos spent 23 fewer days on market compared to Q2 this year (Fig. 14). This shows that most of the oldest (re-activated) listings have sold off and the trend now reflects the true pace of the market with a steady decline in days on market values.

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 14

Mid-North Beach: Inventory Down YoY – Again One of Lowest in Miami

Q3 2021 closes with 7 months of Inventory. Consistent with the overall Miami market trend, luxury condo inventory in Mid-North Beach declined year-over-year. At 7 months, inventory is down an incredible 83.7% from 43 months in September 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory stayed flat at 7 months between June and September (Fig. 15).

Mid-North Beach shares the second spot for lowest inventory in Miami Beach and overall Miami - like the previous quarter - with South Beach plus the combined district of Surfside and Bal Harbour. With sellers in complete control of the market, buyers need to put in strong (read above the asking price) offers for a chance to own their desired luxury property.

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 15

A balanced market has 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Q3 2021 Surfside & Bal Harbour 

Surfside & Bal Harbour: Luxury Condo Sales Up YoY

84.2% increase in year-over-year sales - positive trendline. In sync with the positive sales trend seen in the overall Miami market, Surfside & Bal Harbour reported a notable 84.2% increase over Q3 2020 as well as same quarter 2019 (pre-pandemic).

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, sales are down 54% compared to Q2 and 32.7% lower than those in Q1 this year (Fig. 17.1). Sales have also consistently been declining since May in this collective neighborhood – down from 26 sales in May to 9 in September – a 65.4% decline over four months (Fig. 17.2). This could be due to the market taking a seasonal breather (as seen historically), or inventory being too low to support such intense demand, or numbers normalizing after a year of extraordinary gains.

Owing to the phenomenal growth experienced over the past few quarters, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 17.2 stays positive from Q4 2020 through to Q3 2021.

Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Sales 2015-2021 - Fig. 17.1

Surfside & Bal Harbour 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 17.2

Surfside & Bal Harbour: Luxury Condo Prices Down

Price per Square Foot flat at $924, Median Sales Price down 36.7% year-over-year. Deviating from the mixed price trends seen in the overall market report, Surfside & Bal Harbour reported a flat median price per square foot and lower sales price year-over-year.

The Price per Square Foot marginally increased (+1.5%), up from $910 in Q3 last year to $924 for the same quarter of 2021 (Fig. 18). A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly Price per Square Foot below shows that even though prices closed in the mid-ranges, they were 25% lower than Q2 this year. This could be due to more sales in the lower end of the luxury spectrum (meaning between $1M and $2M), opposed to the high end (above $5M). Considering this is a rather small grouping, even a handful of sales can cause volatility. Additionally, the tragic Surfside condo collapse could have contributed to lower sales volumes and prices while access to the area was significantly reduced for several months. 

The Median Sales Price dropped 36.7% year-over-year, down from $3,000,000 in Q3 last year to $1,900,000 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 16).

Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 18

Surfside & Bal Harbour: Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY

47% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. Consistent with the overall Miami market trend of lower quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year days on market, the grouping of Surfside & Bal Harbour also reported a reduction.

Luxury condos in this collective neighborhood spent 58 fewer days on market compared to Q3 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, luxury condos spent 44 fewer days on market compared to Q2 this year (Fig. 19). This decline reflects the speed with which buyers are closing on deals in the neighborhood.

Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 19

Surfside & Bal Harbour: Luxury Condo Inventory Down YoY - Also One of Lowest in Miami

Q3 2021 closes with 7 months of Inventory. Following the overall Miami market trend, luxury condo inventory in Surfside & Bal Harbour dropped year-over-year. At 7 months, inventory is down a remarkable 83.7% from its peak of 43 months in September 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory has stayed flat at 7 months throughout June to September (Fig. 20).

Reporting the same months of inventory as South Beach and Mid-North Beach, this collective neighborhood also posted the second-lowest inventory in all of Miami – same as the previous quarter. Since sellers now lead market trends, after a hiatus of more than 6 years, buyers need to think about putting highly lucrative offers (above asking price) to be considered to close on desired luxury condo.

Surfside & Bal Harbour Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 20

A balanced market has 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Q3 2021 Sunny Isles Beach

Sunny Isles: Luxury Condo Sales Up YoY - Highest Volume in Miami Beach

195.6% growth in year-over-year sales - positive trendline. Consistent with and contributing to the positive sales trend seen in the overall Miami market, Sunny Isles Beach reported a 195.6% increase over Q3 2020 sales and a remarkable 315.7% improvement over pre-pandemic sales in Q3 2019 (Fig. 22.1). With a total of 133 sales in a quarter, this branded-luxury corridor reported its highest sales seen in a third quarter in more than 6 years of our reporting.

Considering the second quarter of the year is usually the strongest (as noted from past patterns in Fig. 22.1), it was expected of the market to take a seasonal breather. However, sales are only 19.4% lower compared to Q2 this year but 25.5% higher than those in Q1 2021. This, along with reporting the highest sales volume in the Miami Beach area for the third quarter, supports the point that Sunny Isles Beach is seeing exceptional demand that has far outperformed any previous year under review (or before from personal experience).

Considering how sales have been booming for the past few quarters in this beach town, the 12-month Sales Trendline in Fig. 22.2 retains its positive curve from Q4 2020 through to Q3 2021.

Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2021 - Fig. 22.1

Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 22.2

Sunny Isles: Luxury Condo Prices Down – Lowest Price per Square Foot in Miami Beach

Price per Square Foot down 4.2% to $773, Median Sales Price down 15.5% year-over-year. In contrast to the mixed price trends of the overall market report, Sunny Isles Beach posted a decline in its year-over-year median price per square foot and median sales price.

The Price per Square Foot decreased 4.2% year-over-year, down from $807 in Q3 2020 to $773 for the same quarter of 2021 (Fig. 23). The Median Sales Price also dropped 15.5% year-over-year, down from $2,000,000 in Q3 2020 to $1,690,000 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 21).

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly Price per Square Foot below shows that prices closed in the higher ranges, though slightly lower than Q2 this year. Even as the sellers' market prevails, buyers could find it easier to get a luxury condo closer to their price expectations in Sunny Isles Beach, since the beach town offers the lowest entry point into luxury condos in the Miami Beach area.

Sunny Isles Beach Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 23

Sunny Isles: Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY

52% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. In sync with the overall Miami market trend of lower quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year days on market, Sunny Isles Beach also reported a decline.

Luxury condos in this beachfront neighborhood spent 97 fewer days on market compared to Q3 last year. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, luxury condos spent 19 fewer days on market compared to Q2 this year (Fig. 24). This is a positive indicator, showing how buyers understand the market dynamics and are quickly coming to a consensus in terms of pricing and other expectations, while demand is extremely high in a seller's market.

Sunny Isles Beach Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 24

Sunny Isles: Inventory Down to New Low - Still Highest in Miami Beach

Q3 2021 closes with 10 months of Inventory. Keeping with the overall Miami market trend, luxury condo inventory in Sunny Isles Beach is down to a new low in over 6 years of our reporting. At 10 months, inventory is down an incredible 84.8% from 66 months in September 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory is down 16.7% from 12 months in June this year (Fig. 25).

Reporting the highest levels of inventory in Miami Beach for Q3 2021, buyers could find some advantage in this sellers' market (at least on paper) in terms of choices.

Sunny Isles Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 25

A balanced market has 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Q3 2021 Fisher Island

Fisher Island: Luxury Condo Sales Up YoY

7.1% increase in year-over-year sales - positive trendline. Consistent with the positive sales trend seen in the overall Miami market, Fisher Island posted a 7.1% increase compared sales volume reported in Q3 2020 as well as Q3 2019 (both with 14 sales each).

On a quarter-over-quarter basis, however, sales are down 59.5% compared to Q2 and 31.8% lower compared to Q1 this year (Fig. 27.1). Sales have also gradually been declining since April this year – down from 17 sales in April to only 2 in September – a sharp decline of 88.2% over the course of five months (Fig. 27.2). This is likely due to inventory being too low to support market demand for this exclusive island, which is further supported by extremely high increases in sales prices (see below). Fourth-quarter results will be key to determine the course of sales in Fisher Island.

Nonetheless, owing to the phenomenal pace of sales over the past couple of quarters, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 27.2 maintained a flat-to-positive curve for Q3 2021, even as sales dropped by the tail-end of the quarter.

Fisher Island Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2021 - Fig. 27.1

Fisher Island Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 27.2

Fisher Island: Luxury Condo Prices Up YoY to Most Expensive in Miami – Lead Price Growth in Overall Miami 

Price per Square Foot up 77% to stay most expensive at $1,418. Median Sales Price up 153.5% year-over-year. Slightly deviating from the mixed price trends seen in the overall Miami market, Fisher Island reported an increase in both its price per square foot and sales price. Reporting the highest percentage growth in its price per square foot and median sales price, Fisher Island offered the highest value to sellers out of all the Miami neighborhoods under review in our overall analysis.

The Price per Square Foot increased 77% year-over-year, up from $801 in Q3 2020 to $1,418 for the same quarter this year. The Median Sales Price also increased 153.5%, up from $2,300,000 in Q3 2020 to $5,830,000 this year (Fig. 26).

With these increases, this exclusive island holds on to its position as the most expensive neighborhood in all of Miami for a fourth consecutive quarter and reported the highest Median Sales Price of $5.8 million in all of Miami.

Fisher Island Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2021 - Fig. 28

Fisher Island: Days on Market Down QoQ & YoY 

67% decline in year-over-year Days on Market. Consistent with the overall Miami market trend of lower year-over-year days on market, luxury condos in Fisher Island spent 140 fewer days on market compared to Q3 last year (Fig. 29). Also, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, luxury condos spent 50 fewer extra days on market compared to Q2 2021.

Reporting the greatest decline of 140 days in year-over-year Median Days on Market out of all Miami Beach and overall Miami neighborhoods under review, Fisher Island establishes itself as the most expensive and one of the fastest selling sub-markets for luxury condos.

Fisher Island Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2021 – Fig. 29

Fisher Island: Luxury Condo Inventory at Lowest in Miami

Q3 2021 closes with 5 months of Inventory. In tune with the overall market trend in Miami, luxury condo inventory in Fisher Island dropped year-over-year. At 5 months, inventory is down a noteworthy 80% from 25 months in September 2020. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory has stayed flat at 5 months between June and September (Fig. 30).

One of the first Miami neighborhoods, along with Coconut Grove & Coral Gables, to enter a seller's market in Q1 2021, Fisher Island continues being a favorite among ultra-high-net-worth individuals (UHNW). Considering a seller-friendly cycle is now in full swing, buyers are advised to put in their offers (preferably above the asking price) as soon as possible if they would like to own a condo of their choice on this exclusive island.

Looking to sell your luxury home in Fisher Island? Call, chat, or email for a FREE market evaluation of your property to make the most of this seller's market.

Fisher Island Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2021 - Fig. 30

A balanced market has 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Q3 2021 Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Conclusion

Even though the third quarter of the year usually takes a seasonal dip from Q2, which posts the strongest numbers of a year, in general, luxury condo sales to skyrocket. Breaking all previous records for the highest quarterly sales, many Miami Beach neighborhoods have posted new highs in Q3 2021.

The Greater Miami Beach area as a whole again posted incredible triple-digit year-over-year growth, while several sub-neighborhoods posted double and triple digit growth. South Beach turned out to be the most popular neighborhood with its highest percentage increase in sale volumes, followed by Sunny Isles Beach. 

Owing to such phenomenal momentum, the 12-month Sales Trendline kept its positive angle across the board for a third quarter in a row – from Q4 2020 through to Q2 2021 – just like the overall market trend.

Like the Q3 2021 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market, prices were mixed year-over-year across the board in Miami Beach. Fisher Island ruled the rankings once again, turning out to be the most expensive neighborhood with a price of $1,418/sq. ft. It also posted the highest median sales price out of all Miami neighborhoods under review at $5.8 million. However, both metrics were down on a QoQ basis. On the other hand, Sunny Isles Beach continued to offer a nice entry point into luxury condos on the beach with the lowest price per square foot of $773 in all of the Miami Beaches.

In terms of value and price growth, Fisher Island led the way with the highest percentage growth (77%) in year-over-year Price per Sq. Ft., followed by South Beach (19%). Both neighborhoods offered great value to sellers.

In terms of Days on Market, the Greater Miami Beach area saw consistent drops in Days on Market across all neighborhoods. Fisher Island reported highest percentage decline in year-over-year Days on Market (-67%), closely followed by Sunny Isles Beach (-52%).

With three quarters of sales momentum, inventory continues to stay at all times lows (in our 6 years of reporting), like the overall Miami report. Fisher Island reported the lowest levels of inventory at 5 months, while South Beach, Mid-North Beach, plus Surfside and Bal Harbour tied for the second-lowest levels with 7 months each, the same as Q2 2021. 

Reporting the strongest third-quarter in over 6 years, Miami Beach is officially in a second quarter of a seller's market. As real estate experts, we expect the market to continue to be strong through the end of the year, however, the very low inventory is the market dynamic we are watching. Still, we know that demand will continue to be strong through year end due to the following:

• Borders opening up from Europe and Latin/South America for vaccinated travelers; 
• more businesses and buyers leaving high-tax states for our tax-friendly environment;
• those with the flexibility to work from home or a hybrid arrangement choosing to live their dream with a condo closer to the ocean and year-round warmth;
• ready availability of vaccinations and relaxed travel policies bringing in foreign buyers interested in a safe investment haven in the U.S., and
• lower luxury condo deliveries in the immediate future keeping inventory levels in check, even when sales catch a break.
  
  

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Questions or comments with the stats? Interested in buying a Miami Beach condo in one of these neighborhoods? Please contact Sep at sniakan (at) hbroswell.com or call 305-725-0566.

Cover photo by Antonio Cuellar on Unsplash