With signs of an impending cool down emerging in our Q2 2022 luxury condo market report, the Miami condo market expectedly hit a seasonal plateau in the third quarter. After touching new sales highs for about 8 quarters in a row (almost 24 consecutive months), it was inevitable for the market to take a break, especially during a quarter that is historically (as per data) known to be one of the slowest.

Overall, in Q3 2022, sales slowed down across the board leading to a decline in the 12-month sales trendline that maps market shifts. However, the Price per Square Foot increased 9.3% year-over-year, accompanied by Days on Market declining by 25% year-over-year, showing that the luxury condo market was still in good health. In general, sellers still got good value for their properties and buyers acted quickly. Overall Inventory also stayed low at 9 months – another positive indicator showing that the market is clear of any signs of a crisis (piling inventory is usually such a sign). 

From a neighborhood perspective, Fisher Island, as usual, maintained its status as the most expensive neighborhood in Miami, while Downtown Miami continued as the best entry point for buyers into luxury condos, affording the lowest price per square foot of all neighborhoods under review in Q3 2022.

However, for answers to questions such as "Are there signs of a market shift?" or "Is this just a seasonal correction or something deeper?," we'll be keeping a close watch on Q4 numbers. For now, the luxury condo market in Miami seems to be cruising into a more balanced position from a fierce seller-friendly position a couple of months ago.

Read on for a detailed analysis of the quarterly data on how sales, prices, days on market, and inventory responded to buyer demand and more in our full-length Q3 2022 Miami Luxury Condo Market Report:

This luxury condo market report only includes data for properties priced $1 million and above, and covers the neighborhoods of Greater Downtown Miami (including Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown), Miami Beach (inclusive of South Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach, and Fisher Island), as well as Coral Gables and Coconut Grove.

Q3 2022 - Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Highlights

• Sales dropped 41.2% against previous year's record-high (315 in Q3-22 vs 536 in Q3-21)
• Mid-North Beach reported least negative impact on year-over-year sales volume (-21%), as all neighborhoods reported a sales decline in Q3
• Overall Prices reported positive trends year-over-year: Price per Sq. Ft. up 9.3%, even as Median Sales Price marginally down -3.6%
• Fisher Island remained the most expensive neighborhood of Q3 2022 with a median price of $1,835/sq. ft. – maintaining top spot for 7 quarters in a row
• Surfside & Bal Harbour's luxury condos again offered maximum value to sellers with highest percentage growth (30%) in year-over-year Price per Sq. Ft.
• All three segments (freshly-built, mid, and classic condos) reported lower year-over-year sales volume
• Sellers continued receiving maximum return on investment (ROI) for condos built before 2000 
• Days on Market down -25% year-over-year
• Surfside and Bal Harbour emerged as Miami's fastest-selling market, taking only 32 days on market to sell
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables posted the lowest inventory (6 months) of all Miami neighborhoods, closely followed by Mid-North Beach (7 months)

Table of Contents

1. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales
3. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
4. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
5. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Price Trends by Building Year
6. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
7. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
8. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
9. Conclusion
10. Where does the Miami Luxury Condo Market go from Here?

Q3 2022 Miami Luxury Condo Sales Down

Q3 Sales down -41.2% year-over-year; 12-month sales trendline negative 

Miami's luxury condo market hit a seasonal plateau this Q3 2022, as sales dipped quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. The third quarter of the year is generally known to be one of the slowest for sales (as per historical data). Further, a slowdown was quite expected, considering the luxury condo market had been in overdrive for the past two years and would need to stabilize at some point after reporting new sales highs for 8 consecutive quarters (Fig. 1.2):

Quarterly Sales Comparison - Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market

• Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021. Sales dipped -41.2% to 315, down from a record-setting high of 536 sales in the previous year (Fig. 1).
• Q3 2022 vs Q2 2022. Sales plunged -58.8% to 315, down from an exceptional high of 765 sales in the previous quarter (Fig. 1.1).
• Although the above decline in volumes might seem sharp, it is worth noting that Q2 2022 was an above average cycle, reporting one of the highest sales volumes seen in a quarter in over 7 years of us reporting (and before, anecdotally).

Looking into the Monthly Sales chart (Fig. 1.3), volumes closed consistently lower compared to 2021's record-setting highs:

• July 2022 closed with 92 sales versus previous year's 217 sales for the same month.
• August closed with 124 sales compared to 177 in the same month of 2021.
• September closed with 99 sales, down from the previous year's 142 sales for the same month.

The Sales Trendline of Fig. 1.4, expectedly, down-shifted into a negative trajectory this Q3-22 from a positive curve in Q2-22, considering all neighborhoods under our review closed with lower sales quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year. (See neighborhood reports for more details).

Since the third and fourth quarters of the year are generally one of the slowest (based on historical data), we, as real estate experts, expect the market to pick up pace only after December's highlight Art Basel event or mid-January. Until then, it would not be alarming if the luxury condo market continues at a similar pace or further slows down in the closing quarter of 2022.

Overall Miami Quarterly Luxury Condo Sales 2015 - 2022 - Fig. 1.2

Overall Miami Monthly Luxury Condo Sales Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2022 - Fig. 1.3

Overall Miami 12-Month Luxury Condo Sales with Trendline - Fig. 1.4

Q3 2022 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Luxury Condo Sales

Q3 2022 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Sales Trends (Fig. 1.5)

• Winner: Mid-North Beach and Brickell reported the lowest drop in year-over-year sales (-21% and -22%, respectively).

• Down: All Miami neighborhoods reported a decline in year-over-year sales:
• Sunny Isles Beach (-41%)
• Edgewater (-46%)
• Downtown Miami (-46%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour (-47%)
• South Beach (-49%)
• Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (-56%)
• Fisher Island (-80%)

More in-depth analysis and details are available in dedicated reports for Greater Downtown Miami, Miami Beach and the Barrier Islands, plus Coral Gables & Coconut Grove.

Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison 3Q22-over-3Q21 - Fig. 1.5

3Q 2022 Overall Miami Luxury Condo Prices - Positive Trends YoY

Q3 2022 Price per Square Foot up 9.3% to $913, but Median Price down -3.6% year-over-year.

Miami's luxury condo market again posted positive price trends - similar to those seen in the previous quarter. The Price per Square Foot increased year-over-year, showing that the market was still in good health and sellers received positive value for their luxury properties here:

Q3 2022 Median Price Trends – Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market

• Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021. Price per Square Foot increased 9.3% year-over-year, up from $835 in Q3 2021 to $913 for the comparable quarter of 2022 (Fig. 1).
• Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021. Median Sales Price declined -3.6% year-over-year, down from $1,607,500 Q3 last year to $1,550,000 in the same quarter this year (Fig. 1).
• This inconsistency between year-over-year Price per Square Foot and Sales Price trends could possibly be due to sales of smaller-sized (in square foot) condos dominating the quarter. Smaller condos with better amenity packages tend to command a higher price per square foot.
• Q3 2022 vs Q3 2021. Price per Square Foot again softened down by -1.5%, down from $927 in Q2 2022 to $913 in Q3 2022 (Fig. 1.1 & 2.1).
• Looking at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 2.1), it is worth noting that the Price per Square Foot has been steadily declining since Q1 of 2022. However, it is still in the higher ranges compared to the past 5 years under review – still providing great value to sellers.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2022 - Fig. 2.1

Q3 2022 Miami Neighborhood Price Trends

Q3 2022 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Price Trends

Median Price per Square Foot (Fig. 2.2)

• Winner: Fisher Island held on as the most expensive neighborhood for the 7th quarter in a row, fetching a median price of $1,835/sq. ft.
• Winner: Surfside & Bal Harbour again reported the highest percentage growth (30%) in year-over-year Price per Square Foot ($1,205), closely followed by Fisher Island (29%) – both offering sellers great value for their luxury condos.
• Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year Price per Square Foot: 
• Mid/North Beach - $1,162/SF (28%)
• Edgewater - $867/SF (17%)
• Sunny Isles Beach - $887/SF (14%)
• Coconut Grove and Coral Gables - $756/SF (10%)
• Brickell - $830/SF (9%)
• Flat: South Beach posted a negligible change (-3%) in its year-over-year Price per Square Foot.
• Down: Downtown Miami reported an -18% decline in year-over-year Price per Square Foot ($704/sq. ft.).

Miami Neighborhood 3Q22-over-3Q21 Median Price per Square Foot Comparison - Fig. 2.2

Median Sales Price (Fig. 2.3)

• Winner: Surfside & Bal Harbour (combined) again reported the highest percentage growth (28%) in year-over-year Median Sales Price, closing at $2.5 million.
• Winner: Fisher Island continued as the undisputed winner with a (median) price tag of $5.4 million – keeping its place as the most expensive zip code in Miami and South Florida.
• Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year Median Sales Price:
• Mid-North Beach - $1.5 million (11%)
• Edgewater - $1.4 million (8%)
• Flat: Sunny Isles Beach (3%), Brickell (-2%), and Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (1%) posted a negligible change in their year-over-year Median Sales Price.
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decline in year-over-year Median Sales Price:
• Downtown Miami - $1.3 million (-17%)
• Fisher Island - $5.4 million (-7%)
• South Beach - $1.9 million (-5%)

Miami Neighborhood 3Q22-over-3Q21 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.3 

Q3 2022 Overall Miami Sales Price Trends by Building Year - Mixed

Below is a detailed analysis of how Miami luxury condo buildings performed in Q3 2022 on the basis of age of construction of the condo building, categorized as new construction buildings (2015-2021), buildings built from 2000-2014, and pre-2000 buildings.

• New Construction Buildings reported lower sales. Year-over-year price value also declined 7.3%.
• Buildings Dated 2000-2014 again posted the highest sales volume (126) out of all 3 segments under review, along with a 7% year-over-year price gain.
• Condos Built before 2000 reported a decline in sales volume. However, sellers received the best value of all 3 segments with prices peaking to $888/SF - a 31% increase in year-over-year prices.

Miami New Construction Condos Built 2015-2022

Reflecting the overall market mood, sales for Miami's freshly-built luxury condo segment dropped. With 114 sales, the segment posted a 58.5% decline in quarter-over-quarter sales and a 43.8% dip in year-over-year sales (Fig. 3.1).

Note: Anecdotally, we are seeing exceptionally high demand for pre-construction luxury condos. Most projects are selling out before shovels hit the ground. Many of these pre-construction sales are not recording in centralized databases, and thus are not included in our quarterly sales data and reports.

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales for Buildings Dated 2015-2022 - Fig. 3.1

Fig. 3.2 shows this newly-built segment closed the quarter with a $935 Price per Square foot - the highest among all 3 segments under review - even as prices declined quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. The Price per Square Foot for the segment was down 7.3% quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year (from $1,008/SF).

Miami New Construction Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot (Buildings Built 2015-2022) - Fig. 3.2

Miami Luxury Condos Built 2000-2014

Again, with the highest sales volume of all 3 segments under review, buildings built 2000-2014 continued to be the most popular among buyers in Q3 2022. However, with 126 sales, the segment posted a 59.8% decline in quarter-over-quarter sales and 44.7% dip in year-over-year numbers (Fig. 3.3).

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.3

Fig. 3.4 shows this segment (built 2000-2014) closed the quarter with a stable price of $911/sq. ft., giving sellers great value for their properties. The Price per Square Foot for the segment stayed mostly flat (-1.2%) quarter-over-quarter and increased by 14% year-over-year.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.4

Miami Luxury Condos Built Before 2000

With 75 sales, this classic segment of luxury condos (built pre-2000) posted a 57.6% drop in quarter-over-quarter numbers and a 26.5% decline in year-over-year volume (Fig. 3.5) - mirroring the overall sales trend of Q3 2022.

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.5

Closing the quarter at a high-ranging price of $888 per square foot, prices for the segment were up by 7% quarter-over-quarter and 31% higher year-over-year. With this increase, the classic segment afforded sellers the best value of all 3 segments under review.

It is worth noting that prices in this classic segment are on the rise even as sales drop. This is most likely due to developers turning to bulk buy-out deals for older buildings, buying them out at a higher-than-market price to gain control of the condo association and property.

Overall Miami Luxury Condos Price per Sq. Ft.  (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.6

Overall Miami Luxury Condos - Days on Market Up QoQ, But Down YoY

Days on Market up 5.3% quarter-over- quarter. In Q3 2022, luxury condos spent only 3 extra days on market compared to Q2 this year (Fig. 4.1). At 60 days, luxury properties still sold at a steady pace, showing healthy buyer-seller dialogue.

On a year-over-year basis, luxury condos spent 20 fewer days on market (DOM) compared to Q3 2021 – a 25% decline, again suggesting a healthy market pace.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2022 - Fig. 4.1

Q3 2022 Miami Neighborhood Days on Market Trends

Q3 2022 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Days on Market Trends (Fig. 4.2)

• Winner: Luxury condos in the combined neighborhoods of Surfside and Bal Harbour spent only 32 days on the market – reporting a decline of 39 days year-over-year (-56%) - making this the fastest-selling neighborhood of Q3 2022.
• Down: Other neighborhoods posting a decline in year-over-year Median Days on Market for luxury condos in Miami:
• Mid/North Beach - 40 days (-50%)
• Brickell - 50 days (-37%)
• South Beach - 63 days (-36%)
• Coconut Grove and Coral Gables - 42 days (-32%)
• Downtown Miami - 103 days (-24%)
• Edgewater - 64 days (-8%)
• Flat: Sunny Isles Beach (2%) reported a negligible change in its year-over-year Days on Market.
• Up: Fisher Island (378%) reported an increase in year-over-year Days on Market for luxury condos (details in Q3 luxury condo market report for Miami Beach).

Miami Neighborhood 3Q22-Over-3Q21 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.2

Luxury Condo Inventory Up to 9 months – Still a Seller's Market

Q3 2022 closed with 9 months of inventory. As predicted in our Q2 2022 luxury condo market report, sales cooled down considerably during the third quarter. So, it was quite expected that market inventory would respond with an uptick:

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory went up from 6 months in June to 9 months in September this year.
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory went up from 8 months in September 2021 – reporting a 12.5% increase (Fig. 5.1).

Considering a balanced market has 9 to12 months of inventory - at 9 months, Miami's luxury condo market is still a sellers' market. This means sellers still hold the advantage in negotiations.

However, if the luxury condo market continues at its present pace or cools down further, we could be looking at the market shifting into a more balanced position. This means sellers will still be able to look forward to good offers and a gain in value, however, buyers will also benefit from a wider choice of properties within their preferred price range, and with more time to make decisions and negotiate offers.

Overall Miami Months of Luxury Condo Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2022 - Fig. 5.1

A balanced market has about 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as the number of active listings + number of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Miami Overall Luxury Condo Market - Q3 2022 Conclusion

Sellers' market shows signs of health with low inventory and lower days on market, even as sales decline.

As predicted in our Q2 market report, Miami's luxury condo market took its due break this third quarter after 8 consecutive quarters of record-high sales (Q3-20 to Q2-22). But, even as Q3 2022 reported a -41.2% decline in year-over-year volume, sales were higher than any third-quarter recorded from 2020 or before (see Fig. 1.2) – showing that the luxury condo market adhered to its growth threshold.

In Q3 2022, the combined neighborhood of Mid-North Beach emerged as the most resilient sub-market, reporting the least negative impact on year-over-year sales. All other Miami neighborhoods also reported a decline in year-over-year sales.

With all Miami neighborhoods under review reporting a decline in sales, the 12-month sales trendline expectedly down-shifted into a negative trajectory in Q3 2022, from a positive position in Q2 2022. Considering sales anecdotally don't pick up until after December's Art Basel and New Year hype, we, as real estate experts, expect 2022 to close on a soft note.

On the price front, the majority of the Miami neighborhoods reported an increase in year-over-year property values. Of all the neighborhoods under review, luxury condos in Surfside and Bal Harbour continued offering the highest year-over-year gain in value (30%). Buildings built 2000-2014 continued to be the popular choice among buyers, posting the highest sales volume of all 3 segments under review (newly-built to classic). And again, the older luxury condo buildings of Miami (built before 2000) afforded the highest value to sellers with a 31% increase in year-over-year prices.

The Days on Market metric continued its downward trend year-over-year, but increased slightly from its all-time low posted in the previous quarter. With a majority of the neighborhoods posting a decline, Surfside and Bal Harbour (collectively) emerged as the fastest-selling neighborhood, reporting only 32 days to market (on median) in Q3 2022.

As buyer demand remained steady, inventory closed within the 9–12-month benchmark of a balanced market. With 9 months of inventory, sellers stayed in control of the market. Buyers, on the other hand, would still need to put in competitive offers (at or over asking price) to lock in the luxury condo they desire.

For buyers looking to see the kind of inventory available on the market, you can search for all currently listed luxury condos for sale in Miami here or contact us directly.

Miami's Luxury Condo Market Prediction Q3 2022: Where Does the Market Go From Here?

Even amidst talks of a national housing market crisis, Miami's luxury condo market continues adhering to the growth threshold it has gained since the start of the pandemic. While we expect the year to close on a softer note, with the market taking on a more balanced position from its current seller-friendly situation, we, as real estate experts, expect the following factors to influence buyer decisions and market performance from here on:

Tax savings and migration. Miami is now an established magnet for startups to businesses of repute owing to our pocket-friendly tax policies. Following the great business migration, wealthy families and deep-pocketed digital nomads continue landing on our sunny shores from the likes of San Francisco, Los Angeles, and New York City. As real estate experts, we expect this domestic influx to continue fueling demand for luxury housing for the interim.

Safe investment haven. With the research to back it, "Florida remains the No. 1 U.S. destination for international buyers, with an even higher foreign buyer share of 24% than the previous year." So, even as the Euro and other currencies weaken, we don't expect this to leave a huge impact on the overall luxury condo market of Miami, as Miami continues to be a safe haven for foreign buyers looking to flee from political winds back home.

Higher interest rates: With the recent hike in interest rates, we're seeing a bit of seller hesitation as some sellers are choosing to hold onto their properties that were purchased with lower mortgage rates, or even refinanced with lower rates. However, considering Miami's luxury condo market is a majorly cash market, the impact of this increase might not be as appreciable as some might make it out to be.

Miami's increasing "brand" value. Miami is known to offer the complete package of an energetic global city and relaxing beachside destination rolled into one. This, along with a wider acceptability of work-from-home policies, leads us to expect that buyer demand will likely stay strong from those who aspire to build a life close to the beach, water, lush tropical expanses, or art and culture hotspots.

Also, since Miami continues to be the destination of choice for the biggest to quirkiest brand names in the luxury business to build world-class condo product, those familiar with the Aston Martin, or St. Regis, Cipriani, Missoni, Bentley, Diesel, or NoMad experience will continue to be drawn to our city in great numbers as their range of branded housing choices keeps on expanding.

Adhering to low levels of inventory. With new projects being announced every month and developers buying out older properties to replace with more luxurious condos, it's no secret that Miami's pre-construction market is in overdrive. However, even with this accelerated pace, it will take a while for this new condo inventory to be delivered. With fewer deliveries scheduled in the immediate future (read next 2-3 years), we expect inventory levels to stay low, keeping the market balanced, if not seller-friendly, for the next couple of cycles.

If you'd like more details on the data in our exclusive Condo Blackbook quarterly luxury condo market reports, please send us an email or call us anytime.

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