Condo Blackbook's quarterly luxury condo market reports are in, with both year-end 2020 and Q4 2020 numbers. For the Greater Downtown Miami market, Edgewater has emerged as the luxury condo market in Miami to watch in 2021. Leading annual sales growth in the Greater Downtown Miami area, this family-friendly, waterfront neighborhood not only made up for lost sales due to the pandemic, but also proved to be a great value to sellers with its higher prices. And reporting the second-highest increase in price per square foot out of all Miami neighborhoods in our annual analysis, Edgewater emerged as a valuable market for investors.

Looking at the overall Miami luxury condo market report revealed sales skyrocketed across all segments in Q4 2020. Most neighborhoods reported positive sales, pointing to a strong opening to 2021. Overall, prices remained flat year-over, further making the luxury condo market in Miami stand out as lucrative to buyers. Inventory dropped quarter-over-quarter across the board as well. Together, these trends indicate that the luxury condo market could soon transition from a long-standing buyer-friendly market into a balanced position.

Read on for our exclusive and detailed analysis on how the individual neighborhoods of Downtown Miami, Brickell, and Edgewater performed in Q4 2020 and on an Annual basis compared to the overall Miami luxury condo trends for sales, prices, days on market and inventory.

For the purpose of this report, we've included areas with the zipcodes 33129, 33130, 33131, 33132, 33137 – essentially Brickell Hammock, Brickell, Brickell Key, Downtown, Arts & Entertainment District, Edgewater, Wynwood, Midtown and the Design District. Further, this luxury condo market report only features properties priced $1 million and above.

Greater Downtown Miami Area Luxury Condo Market Highlights - Annual + Q4 2020

• Annual sales down 13.9% in 2020-over-2019 analysis
• 12-month Sales Trendline stays positive from Q3 to Q4 2020
• Q4 2020 sales flat year-over-year, but highest in a fourth-quarter 2015-2018
• Annual and Q4 2020 Price per Square Foot post year-over-year gains
• Median Sales Price up annually, but down for Q4 year-over-year
• Annual Days on Market up 10% in 2020-over-2019 analysis
• Inventory down year-over-year to 51 months, but second-highest of all Miami segments in overall study
• Buyer's market continues, Q1 2021 expected to open strong

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q4 2020 YoY (Number of Sales)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Neighborhoods at a Glance - Q4 2020 YoY (Median Sales Price)

Overall Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Neighborhoods at a Glance - Q4 2020 YoY (Median SP/SqFt)

Edgewater Highlights - Annual + Q4 2020

• Winner: Edgewater leads annual sales growth in urban core (Greater Downtown Miami area)
• Annual sales up 18.9% in 2020-over-2019 analysis
• 12-month Sales Trendline stays positive from Q3 to Q4 2020
• Q4 2020 sales flat year-over-year, but match highest peaks seen in 6-year study
• Winner: Second-highest gains of all Miami neighborhoods in annual Price per Square Foot, only behind Surfside & Bal Harbour
• Median Sales Price flat annually, but down for Q4 year-over-year
• Annual Days on Market down 13% in 2020-over-2019 analysis
• Inventory down 37% year-over-year to 48 months

Brickell Highlights - Annual + Q4 2020

• Annual sales down 28.2% in 2020-over-2019 analysis
• 12-month trendline improves from flat in Q3 to positive in Q4 2020
• Q4 2020 sales flat year-over-year
• Annual Median Sales Price and Price per Square Foot post year-over-year gains
• Q4 2020 Price per Square Foot closes at lowest in 6 years
• Annual Days on Market up 26% in 2020-over-2019 analysis
• Inventory flat year-over-year at 54 months, but highest of all Miami neighborhoods in overall study

Table of Contents

1. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends
3. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
4. Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
5. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
6. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
7. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
8. Edgewater Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
9. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Overall Sales
10. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
11. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
12. Brickell Neighborhood Trends - Inventory
13. Conclusion

Q4 2020 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 1

2020-over-2019 Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 1.1

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Market Trends: Annual Sales Down, Q4 2020 Sales Highest Since 2015

As expected because of the pandemic, Greater Downtown Miami reported an annual decline in sales of 13.9% compared to 2019 (Fig. 1.1). However, this is an extraordinary recovery and not bad news. The boost seen in Q3 and Q4 has helped this urban core post an almost complete recovery (from the pandemic-caused losses in Q2), and the 12-month trendline stays positive between Q3 and Q4 2020 (Fig. 2.3). Additionally, 4Q 2020 sales were the same as 4Q 2019, indicating the market has recovered. Reading into this positive curve, we expect 2021 to begin on a strong note.

Q4 2020 Sales same as year-ago, plus outperform every fourth quarter from 2015-2018

As predicted in our Q3 report, sales momentum carried into the last quarter for luxury condos! Not only did pent-up demand come through, but the market recovered enough to match previous year sales.

With the same level of sales as Q4 2019 (deviating only slightly from the overall market trend of higher year-over-year sales), Q4 2020 too posted the highest number of sales in a fourth quarter from 2015-2018 (Fig. 2.1). A closer look at Fig. 2.2 reveals that October (12 sales) and November (13 sales) made a bigger contribution to this boost, as momentum cooled down a little by December (9 sales).

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2020 - Fig. 2.1

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 2.2

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Greater Downtown Miami: Annual and Q4 2020 Luxury Condo Price/Sq. Ft. Up YoY

Annual 2020 Price Per Square Foot up to $667, Median Sales Price up 5.3% against 2019

Deviating from the overall market trend of flat year-over-year prices, the Sales Price and Price per Square Foot report an increase in Greater Downtown Miami (Fig. 1.1). The Price per Square Foot increased 5%, up from $635 in 2019 to $667 in 2020. The Median Sales Price also increased by 5.3%, up from $1,452,500 in 2019 to $1,530,000 in 2020. Combined, these trends show that overall sellers in Greater Downtown Miami received good value for their luxury condos.

Q4 2020 Price per Square Foot up 3.3% to $652, Median Sales Price down 7.6% year-over-year

Partly in line with the overall market trend of lower year-over-year prices, only Sales Prices reported a decline while the Price per Square Foot increased in Greater Downtown Miami (Fig. 1). The Price per Square Foot increased 3.3%, up from $632 in Q4 of the previous year to $652 in Q4 2020.

On the other hand, the Median Sales Price declined by 7.6%, down from $1,487,500 in Q4 of the previous year to $1,374,000 in Q4 2020. This difference in price trends could be due to the increased sales of smaller units that pack in more amenities per square foot, therefore commanding higher prices.

Greater Downtown Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 3

Greater Downtown Miami: Annual Days on Market Up YoY 

Annual Days on Market up by 10%

Moving against the overall Miami market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos in the Greater Downtown Miami area took 13 more days to be sold (on a median basis) compared to 2019 (Fig. 1.1). This indicates a weaker dialogue in the neighborhood between buyers and sellers over the year, or decreased in the neighborhood compared to other Miami neighborhoods.

Q4 2020 Days on Market flat year-over-year

Mostly in line with the overall market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos in Greater Downtown spent almost the same number of days on market (110) compared to Q4 2019 (111). On a quarter-over-quarter basis, luxury condos spent 24 fewer days on market compared to Q3 2020 (Fig. 4).

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2020 – Fig. 4

Greater Downtown Miami: Luxury Condo Inventory Drops

Q4 2020 closes with 51 months of Inventory 

Owing to a boost in sales seen over the last two quarters of 2020, inventory dropped to almost half (51) from its peak in June (111 months) - indicating remarkable progress for this combined neighborhood. In line with the overall market trend in Miami, December closed with a 32% decline in quarter-over-quarter inventory (75 to 51), and a 17% decline in year-over-year numbers (62 to 51) (see Fig. 5 below).

At 51 months, however, Greater Downtown Miami closed the year with the second-highest levels of inventory in all of Miami. Still a long way from reaching its ideal 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market, buyers have a big window of opportunity to drive negotiations in their favor as the overall market remains buyer-friendly. To see the kind of luxury condos for sale in this area, search the Greater Downtown Miami area here.

Greater Downtown Miami Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Edgewater Market Trends (33132 and 33137)

Q4 2020 Edgewater Luxury Condo Market Summary – Fig. 6

2020-over-2019 Edgewater Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 6.1

Edgewater Leads Luxury Condo Sales Growth in Greater Downtown

Annual Sales up by 18.9% with positive trendline

Going against the overall market trend of lower annual sales, luxury condos in Edgewater reported extraordinary progress in 2020. With the last two quarters matching the highest sales (15) of all quarters from 2015-2019, Edgewater led the growth narrative for the year in Greater Downtown (Figs. 6.1, 7.1).

Posting an increase of 18.9% in total sales against 2019, Edgewater is the only neighborhood in Greater Downtown (as well as one of only four in Miami overall) to report an increase in annual numbers. This impressive momentum is further displayed in the 12-month sales trendline of Fig. 7.2, as it keeps its positive curve from Q3 to Q4 2020. Reading into this upward trend, we expect a strong opening to 2021 from the neighborhood.

Q4 2020 Sales match highest quarterly sales from 2015-2019

Taking our prediction from Q2 2020 a step forward, the luxury condo market in Edgewater not only bounced back for the third quarter, but also posted the same, record number of sales in Q4 (Fig. 7.1). Closing the year on a strong note, this emerging neighborhood will be the one to watch over the next few quarters.

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2020 - Fig. 7.1

Edgewater Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 7.2

Edgewater: Annual and Q4 Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot Up YoY 

Annual Price Per Square Foot up to $668, Median Sales Price flat against 2019

Mostly in line with the overall Miami market trend of flat annual prices, only Edgewater posted and increase in Price per Square Foot (Fig. 6.1). The Price per Square Foot jumped 10.7%, up from $603 in 2019 to $668 in 2020. The Median Sales Price remained flat, shifting only slightly from $1,565,000 in 2019 to $1,590,000 in 2020.

Behind only Surfside & Bal Harbour, Edgewater is the second neighborhood in Miami to report the highest growth in price per square foot in our 2020-over-2019 analysis -- showing very good value to sellers.

Q4 2020 Price per Square Foot up 3.3% to $679, Median Sales Price down 4.3% year-over-year

Partly in line with the overall market trend of lower year-over-year prices, again, only the Price per Square Foot posted an increase in this emerging neighborhood. The trend increased 3.3%, up from $658 in Q4 2019 to $679 same quarter 2020 (Fig. 6).

On the other hand, the Median Sales Price declined by 4.3%, down from $1,725,000 in Q4 2019 to $1,650,000 in the same quarter 2020. This difference in price trends is possibly fueled by the increased sales of (newer) smaller units offering more amenities, therefore fetching a higher price per square foot.

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 8

Edgewater: Annual Days on Market Down 

Annual Days on Market decline by 13%

Consistent with the overall Miami market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos spent 19 fewer days on the market compared to 2019 overall (Fig. 6.1). This indicates a strong demand and that buyers and sellers found it easier to come to a consensus over dealings through the course of the quarter.

Q4 2020 Days on Market up 10% year-over-year

Going against the overall Miami market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos in Edgewater spent 11 more days on market compared to Q4 2019 (Fig. 6). However, on a quarter-over-quarter basis, luxury condos spent 6 fewer days on market in Q4 compared to Q3 2020 (Fig. 9).

Edgewater Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 9

Edgewater: Inventory Significantly Drops QoQ and YoY

Q4 2020 closes with 48 months of Inventory 

From posting the highest levels of inventory in all of Miami over Q2 and Q3, Edgewater closed the year with less than half its inventory from the peak seen in June 2020 (119 to 48 months), an incredible metric noting strong demand in this desirable area. Consistent with the overall market trend, inventory in this Bayfront neighborhood dropped 36% quarter-over-quarter and 37% year-over-year (Fig. 10).

At 48 months, luxury condo inventory in Edgewater is still a long way from settling down to the 9-12 months of a balanced market, however it has decreased six months in a row now. This gives buyers additional time to find the best deals in the short term, but buyers interested in this area should expect to see availability tighten in the first half of 2021. To see the kind of luxury inventory available, search Edgewater condos for sale here.

Edgewater Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Dec 2020 - Fig. 10

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Greater Downtown Miami Neighborhoods: Brickell Market Trends (33129, 33130 and 33131)

Q4 2020 Brickell Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 11

2020-over-2019 Brickell Luxury Condo Annual Market Summary - Fig. 11.1

Brickell: Luxury Condo Sales Down Annually, Flat YoY for Q4 2020

Annual Sales down, but 12-month Trendline soars positive

In sync with the overall Miami market trend of lower annual sales, Brickell reported a decline of 28.2% in total sales compared to 2019 (Fig. 11.1). Even with Q3 and Q4 posting a good number of sales, this financial district could not completely recover from the pandemic-caused loss of volume seen in Q2 2020. Still, the 12-month trendline improved from being flat in Q3 to a soaring positive in Q4, showing great prospects for a strong opening to 2021 (Fig. 12.2).

Q4 2020 Sales flat quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year

Matching its sales performance from the previous quarter and same quarter previous year, Brickell posts a good level of sales year-end (Fig. 12.1). With a total of 19 sales in Q4, the financial district closed the year on a positive note, more than doubling numbers from their lowest in Q2 (8 sales).

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015 - 2020 - Fig. 12.1

Brickell Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2

Brickell Closes Q4 2020 with Lowest Price per Square Foot Since 2015

Annual Price Per Square Foot flat at $667, Median Sales Price up 5.3% against 2019

In line with the overall Miami market trend of flat annual prices, Price per Square Foot increased marginally 2.5%, up from $650 in 2019 to $667 in 2020, while the Median Sales Price posted an increase of 5.3%, up from $1,425,000 in 2019 to $1,500,000 in 2020 in (see Fig. 11.1)

Q4 2020 Price per Square Foot down to lowest since 2015, Median Sales Price down 6.6% year-over-year

On a quarterly basis, and consistent with the overall market trend of lower year-over-year prices, Brickell reported a decline in its Median Sales Price and Price per Square Foot. The Price per Square Foot dropped 10.6%, down from $628 in Q4 the previous year to $562 same quarter 2020 (Fig. 11). The Median Sales Price also declined by 6.6%, down from $1,360,000 in Q4 2019 to $1,270,000 in the same quarter 2020.

At $562/sq. ft., it is worth noting that this is the lowest price the financial neighborhood has reported since 2015 (Fig. 13).

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 13

Brickell: Annual Days on Market Up

Annual Days on Market up by 26%

In contrast to the overall Miami market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos spent a total of 28 more days on market compared to 2019 (Fig. 11.1). This indicates that buyers and sellers found it tougher to come to an agreement over dealings compared to the previous year, and interest in this neighborhood is less compared to other Miami neighborhoods.

Q4 2020 Days on Market down 21% year-over-year

However, on a quarterly basis, and in line with the overall market trend of lower Days on Market, luxury condos in Brickell spent 25 fewer days on market compared to Q4 2019 (Fig. 11). On a quarter-over-quarter basis, luxury condos spent 45 fewer days on market in Q4 2020 compared to Q3 (Fig. 14).

Brickell Luxury Condo Quarterly Median Days on Market 2018 – 2020 - Fig. 14

Brickell: Inventory Flat YoY, Highest of all Miami Neighborhoods

Q4 2020 closes with 54 months of Inventory

Down to almost half its peak of 105 months in June 2020, Brickell reports the same months of inventory (54) as December 2019. Partly in line with the overall market trend of lower inventory, the business-centric neighborhood posts a decline of 28% in its quarter-over-quarter numbers.

At 54 months, however, Brickell posts the highest levels of inventory of all the Miami neighborhoods in our study. This also means that the neighborhood will take a while to reach the ideal 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market, keeping buyers in control of negotiations. With more time and choices on hand, buyers are recommended to search for available Brickell luxury condos for sale here.

Brickell Luxury Condo Months of Inventory from Mar. 2017 to Dec. 2020 - Fig. 15

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Conclusion: Q4 2020 Downtown Miami Market 

With third-quarter results already posting signs of an early recovery from the pandemic-caused market disruption, it is exciting to see all three neighborhoods in the urban core perform well in the year-end quarter. So, even as Greater Downtown Miami reports mixed trends compared to the overall Miami market study, it has plenty of momentum leading us to expect a strong Q1 and Q2 of this year.

Mostly in line with the overall Miami sales trend for Q4 2020, all three neighborhoods posted the same level of sales as Q4 2019. On an annual basis, Greater Downtown and Brickell reported lower total sales compared to 2019, just like the overall market. Edgewater is the only neighborhood in this study to deviate positively from the annual trend - leading sales growth for the year in the urban core.

The 12-month sales trendline was positive across the board, much like the overall market, again strengthening our belief that 2021 should open on a strong note.

In terms of the Annual Prices analysis, Greater Downtown, Edgewater as well as Brickell posted gains compared to the median price/sq. ft. of 2019 – contrary to the flat prices seen in the overall report. Edgewater again gets a special mention here for posting the second-highest year-over-year gains, in annual price per square foot, out of all Miami neighborhoods in our study. This confirms that owners and investors in Edgewater continued getting great returns, regardless of the pandemic.

Looking at the Q4 2020 results specifically, the Price per Square Foot in Brickell was down like the overall Miami market, with Greater Downtown and Edgewater posting year-over-year gains. Closing the year with the lowest Price per Square Foot in a quarter since 2015, Brickell emerged as an opportune market for buyers.

In our annual analysis, the Days on Market were down for luxury condos in Edgewater, just like the overall market, showing increased demand for luxury condos in all of Miami, and an improved buyer-seller dialogue in the neighborhood with both parties ready to close deals. On the other hand, Greater Downtown and Brickell posted an increase in their 2020-over-2019 Days on Market.

Inventory in the urban core made great strides like the overall market due to improved sales momentum over the last two quarters of 2020. The months of inventory were down across the board, with the only exception of Brickell posting flat year-over-year numbers. Still, reading into the above trends plus our own experience in the market, we expect the months of inventory to easily come down over Q1 and Q2 2021.

We also expect the following factors to make a huge impact on how the luxury condo market performs going into 2021:

• An avalanche of buyers coming in from Northern as well as Northeastern high-tax states such as New York and California
• More people following big businesses and power players from the investment to tech industries into Miami
• Those who were waiting for the uncertainty around the elections to end, finally finding the right motivation and time to buy
• Those looking to move to a warmer climate or build a life closer to the beach now being able to make the move with flexible work-from-home policies in place

As Miami real estate experts in the luxury condo niche, we strongly believe the above factors will increase demand over the next few quarters and bring down inventory sooner than anticipated. This makes 2021 the year to watch as well as buy, since it could finally spell the end of this long-standing buyer's market. While some neighborhoods could simply move into a balanced position, others may completely switch into a seller's market. This means buyers have a limited window of opportunity to grab hold of the best deals on the market, before this transition takes place.

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Questions or comments about the stats? Interested in browsing the market? Contact Sep at sniakan@blackbookproperties.com or call 305-725-0566.

Cover photo by Tory Brown from Pexels