Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Report Q3 2020

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CondoBlackbook.com's third-quarter Miami Beach luxury condo market report for 2020 has quite a few surprise elements. First, most neighborhoods reported a quicker-than-expected recovery from the pandemic's effects seen in Q2. Second,
Mid-North Beach does a 180 and becomes the leading neighborhood for sales growth in Q3 from being the most affected by COVID-caused sales loss in Q2. Third, South Beach and Fisher Island, poised for the quickest recovery in the previous quarter, become the only two with negative year-over-year sales in Miami Beach. And, Fisher Island's price/sq. ft. drops to below the $1,000 mark for the first time in over five years.

Looking at the overall Miami luxury condo market report for Q3 2020, we already know that sales recovered to posting the strongest third-quarter since 2015. We also saw that the median price per sq. ft. was higher year-over-year, showing that sellers did not lose property value irrespective of the pandemic. For Miami overall, the days luxury condos spent on the market were flat year-over-year, again showing a positive buyer-seller dialogue despite the global crisis. And, inventory was expectedly higher year-over-year, but with good reason to believe that it would decline over Q4 and Q1 2021.

Read on for our exclusive and complete analysis detailing how each Miami Beach sub-neighborhood fared in Q3 2020 compared to the overall Miami luxury condo trends in terms of sales, prices, days on market and inventory.

For the purposes of this report, we've included the sub-neighborhoods of South Beach, Mid-Beach, North-Beach, Sunny Isles Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, and Fisher Island as part of our Miami Beach grouping. Also, this luxury condo submarket report only features properties priced at $1 million and above.


Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market 3Q-20 Highlights:

  • Sales up 9% year-over-year, showing signs of recovery
  • 12-month Sales Trendline shifts to flat in Q3-2020 from a negative in Q1 and Q2
  • Price per Square Foot up 6% year-over-year, but down 7.4% quarter-over-quarter
  • Median Sales Price up 2.6% year-over-year
  • Days on Market up 8.2% year-over-year
  • Inventory expectedly up 42.9% year-over-year, but 9% lower quarter-over-quarter


Miami Beach Sub-neighborhood 3Q 2020 Highlights:

  • Winner: Mid-North Beach leads sales growth with highest percentage increase (60%) year-over-year, a complete turnaround from posting the biggest dip in the previous quarter
  • Winner: 12-Month Trendline positive for Sunny Isles Beach and Fisher Island - all other sub-neighborhoods negative
  • Winner: Surfside & Bal Harbour reports highest percentage growth in year-over-year Price per sq. ft. (36%) in all of Miami
  • Surfside & Bal Harbour posts highest Median Sales Price of $3 million in all of Miami, continuing the trend from Q1
  • South Beach is the most expensive neighborhood in all of Miami, priced at $1,106/sq. ft., overtaking Fisher Island from Q2
  • However, South Beach and Fisher Island only neighborhoods to report negative year-over-year sales
  • Fisher Island reports biggest percentage decrease (32%) in Price per Square feet in all of Miami
  • Fisher Island posts biggest percentage increase (79%) in Days on Market in Miami Beach and Miami Overall
  • Mid-North Beach posts highest percentage decrease (9.3%) in Days on Market in Miami Beach
  • Surfside & Bal Harbour report lowest inventory (41 months) in Miami Beach, followed closely by South Beach (43 months)
  • Sunny Isles Beach posts highest inventory (65 months) in Miami Beach


Miami Beach Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2020 YoY (Median Sale Price)

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2020 YoY (Median Sale Price)


Miami Beach Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2020 YoY (Median Sales Price / SqFt)

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2020 YoY (Median Sales Price / SqFt)


Miami Beach Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2020 YoY (Number of sales)

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Markets at a Glance - Q3 2020 YoY (Number of sales)


Table of Contents

  1. Overall 3Q 2020 Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
  2. 3Q 2020 South Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
  3. 3Q 2020 Mid and North Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
  4. 3Q 2020 Surfside & Bal Harbour Luxury Condo Market Trends
  5. 3Q 2020 Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Market Trends
  6. 3Q 2020 Fisher Island Luxury Condo Market Trends
  7. Conclusion - 3Q 2020 Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Report


Miami Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary 3Q 2020 - Fig. 1

Miami Beach Luxury Condo 3Q 2020 Quarterly Market Summary

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2020

123

8.8%

$2,000,000

2.6%

$867

6.0%

172

Q3-2019

113

$1,950,000

$818

159


Miami Beach Luxury Condo Sales Up YoY

Third quarter Sales rebound with 8.8% year-over-year increase and flatter trendline. Just like the third quarter sales trend in overall Miami, Miami Beach also posted an 8.8% uptick in year-over-year sales. Sunny Isles Beach, with its highest sales volume (44), and Mid-North Beach with its highest percentage increase in year-over-year sales (60%), happen to be the biggest contributors to this turnaround. (See Markets at a Glance - Q3 2020 YoY Number of Sales chart above.) 

A closer look at the monthly sales in Fig. 2.2 reveals that volumes trended higher towards the end of the quarter. Though July's 35 sales still lacked compared to last year's 43 sales, the market made a recovery with August posting 38 sales (against last year's 30), and September reporting an impressive 50 sales (against last year's 40 sales).

Considering the pandemic had put a pause in Q2 2020 sales, it's exciting to see that it seems like a temporary situation and the market is moving quickly towards a recovery. A lot of the sales volume seen over Q3 2020 represents deals that were put on hold due to COVID, and they finally closed as the markets began to re-open worldwide.

Capturing this uptick perfectly, the 12-month sales trendline (Fig. 2.3) finally shifts to a flat-ish position from a complete negative over the last two quarters. This momentum, along with continued activity in the luxury condo market, leads us to expect a strong Q4 and Q1 2021 moving ahead.


Miami Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 2.1

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 2.1


Miami Beach Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 2.2

Miami Beach Luxury Condo Monthly Sales from Jan. 2016 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 2.2


Miami Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3

Miami Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 2.3


Miami Beach Luxury Condo Prices Up YoY - Price per Sq. Ft. and Median Sales Price

Price per Sq. ft. up 6% to $867, Median Sales Price up 2.6% year-over-year. Consistent with the overall 3Q 2020 market trend, Miami Beach reports an increase in both its median price per sq. ft. and median sales price.

The Price per Sq. Ft. increased 6%, up from $818 in Q3 2019 to $867 this year. The Median Sales Price also increased slightly 2.6%, up from $1,950,000 in the same quarter last year to $2,000,000 this year (Fig. 1).

A look at the five-year snapshot of quarterly prices per square foot below (Fig. 3) reveals that prices closed in the lower range for the period under review.


Miami Beach Quarterly Sales Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 3

Miami Beach Quarterly Sales Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 3


3Q 20 Miami Beach Days on Market Up YoY 

Days on Market increase 8.2% year-over-year. In contrast with the overall market trend of flat days on market, luxury condos in Miami Beach spent 13 more days on the market compared to Q3 last year (Fig. 4). 

On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the trend also posted an increase. Luxury condos spent 73 extra days on market compared to Q2 in Miami Beach. This was quite expected as the pandemic delayed the closing of plenty of deals.

However, with the year-ago numbers posting a smaller increase (compared to the quarter-to-quarter difference), the metric shows that buyers and sellers were more or less on the same page when it came to expectations from deals.


Miami Beach Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 4

Miami Beach Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 4


Miami Beach Inventory Up YoY, Lower QoQ

Q3 2020 closes with 50 months of inventory. In sync with the overall Miami trend, luxury condo inventory increased 42.9% year-over-year in Miami Beach, up from 35 months last year. This was quite expected due to the pandemic putting a pause on sales momentum in Q2, which is usually one of the best quarters of the year.

After peaking at 55 months by June-end, the trend turns around to post a 9% decline quarter-over-quarter, owing to good sales momentum. However, as levels are still a long way from the 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market, buyers can afford to get bullish on deals and negotiations in this collective beach district. To see the kind of luxury inventory available for sale in Miami Beach, click here.


Miami Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 5

Miami Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 5

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – number of active listings + number of pending listings, divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Miami Beach Neighborhoods: 3Q 2020 South Beach (ZIP 33139)


3Q 2020 South Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 6

South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Market Summary

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2020

21

-36.4%

$2,075,000

7.8%

$1,106

-0.5%

167

Q3-2019

33

$1,925,000

$1,111

148


South Beach: Luxury Condo Sales Down YoY - Biggest Drop in Miami Overall

Q3 20 sales decline 36.4% year-over-year with negative trendline. From posting the biggest drop in percentage sales of all the Miami neighborhoods in Q1 to signs of a more stable position in Q2, South Beach was back to posting the highest percentage decline in year-over-year sales this Q3 20. This is the lowest sales volume registered for the popular beach destination since 2015.

This drop in momentum further affects the 12-month trendline in fig. 7.2, which goes from flat in Q2 to negative this quarter.


South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 7.1

South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 7.1


South Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 7.2

South Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 7.2


South Beach: Luxury Condo Price per Sq. Ft. Flat YoY, Still Most Expensive in Miami Overall

Price per square foot stays flat year-over-year at $1,106, median price up 7.8% year-over-year. In contrast to the trend of higher prices seen in the overall market, South Beach posts a flat year-over-year price per square foot, shifting slightly from $1,111 in Q3 last year to $1,106 this year (Fig. 8).

On the other hand, the Median Sales Price was in sync with the overall market trend of higher prices, posting a year-over-year increase of 7.8%, up from $1,925,000 in Q3 last year to $2,075,000 this year (Fig. 6).


South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Square Foot 2016-2020 - Fig. 8

South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Square Foot 2016-2020 - Fig. 8


South Beach: Days on Market Up YoY

Days on Market increases 12.8% year-over-year. Moving against the overall Miami market trend of flat days on market, luxury condos in South Beach spent 19 more days on market compared to Q3 last year, and 89 more days compared to Q2 this year (Fig. 9). This quarter-over-quarter spike has more to do with the pandemic causing a delay in closings.


South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 - Fig. 9

South Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 - Fig. 9


South Beach: 3Q 2020 Inventory Up QoQ and YoY, Favoring Buyers

Q3 20 South Beach condo inventory closes at 43 months. With a decline in sales momentum comes an increase in the months of inventory for South Beach this third quarter. Partly in line with the overall market trend in Miami (posting an increase in year-over-year numbers only), inventory here increased 19.4% quarter-over-quarter (up from 36 months June-end) and 38.7% year-over-year (up from 31 months last September).

At 43 months, inventory has moved further away from the ideal 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market. This gives buyers the advantage of time and options to drive deals in their favor as they search South Beach condos for sale here.


South Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 10

South Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 10


Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Mid and North Beach (ZIP 33140 & 33141)

3Q 2020 Mid-Beach and North-Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 11

3Q 2020 Mid-North Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Market Summary

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2020

24

60.0%

$1,362,500

-4.4%

$849

-4.8%

157

Q3-2019

15

$1,425,000

$892

173


Mid-North Beach: Sales Up YoY, Leading Growth in Miami Beach

60% increase in year-over-year Sales with negative trendline. Doing a complete 180 from posting the biggest drop in quarterly sales last quarter in Miami Beach, this combined neighborhood of Mid-North Beach makes a comeback with a 60% increase in year-over-year sales (Fig. 12.1). Leading sales growth in Miami Beach, Mid-North Beach posts the highest percentage increase of all other sub-neighborhoods under review.

However, this impressive turnaround is not enough to give the 12-month trendline a positive lift as it stays negative between Q2 and Q3 (Fig. 12.2).


Mid-Beach and North-Beach Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 12.1

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 12.1


Mid-Beach and North-Beach 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2

Mid-Beach and North-Beach 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 12.2


Mid-North Beach: Luxury Condo Prices Down YoY - Both Price per Sq. Ft. & Sales Price

Price per sq. ft. down 4.8% to $849, Median Price down 4.4% year-over-year. Even with an improved sales pace, prices posted a downward trend in this combined neighborhood, showing that dealings mostly favored buyers.

Deviating from the overall Miami luxury condo market trend of increasing prices, Mid-North Beach reported a 4.8% decline in its Price per Square Foot, down from $892 in Q3 last year to $849 this year. The Median Sales Price was also down 4.4%, decreasing from $1,425,000 in Q3 19 last year to $1,362,500 this year (Fig. 11).


Mid-Beach and North-Beach Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 13

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 13


Mid-North Beach: Days on Market Down YoY

Days on Market decline 9.3% year-over-year. Going against the overall market trend of flat year-over-year days on market, luxury condos in the combined beach neighborhood spent 16 fewer days on the market compared to Q3 last year (Fig. 14). But, expectedly due to the pandemic, luxury condos spent 39 more days on market compared to the previous quarter 2020.

Still, this is a positive indication for the sub-neighborhood, showing that buyer-seller dealings did improve over the year.


Mid-Beach and North-Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 14

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 14


Mid-North Beach: Inventory Up YoY, But Down QoQ With Good Sales

Q3 2020 closes with 47 months of Inventory. The boost seen in Q3 sales is strongly reflected here as inventory declines 21.7% quarter-over-quarter, down from 60 months at June-end to 47 months this quarter.

However, staying consistent with the overall Miami market trend of higher year-over-year inventory, Mid-North Beach's months of inventory increased expectedly by 42.4%, up from 33 months last year. Still a long way from normalizing to the 9-12-month benchmark of an ideal market, buyers have ample time and opportunity to find the best deals in these coastal districts. To find what sort of luxury condos are available, search North Beach and Mid-Beach condos for sale here.


Mid-Beach and North-Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 15

Mid-Beach and North-Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 15

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Surfside & Bal Harbour 


3Q20 Surfside & Bal Harbour Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 16

3Q 2020 Surfside & Bal Harbour Luxury Condo Quarterly Market Summary

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2020

19

0.0%

$3,000,000

42.9%

$910

36.4%

123

Q3-2019

19

$2,100,000

$668

125


Surfside & Bal Harbour: 3Q 2020 Luxury Condo Sales Flat YoY

Q3 2020 Sales remain flat year-over-year with negative trendline. Partly deviating from the overall Miami market trend of improved year-over-year sales, this combined luxury Miami Beach neighborhood posted the same sales volume as Q3 last year. However, this is still a positive indication considering that sales have recovered from the pause caused by the pandemic in Q2.

The 12-month sales trendline in Fig. 17.2 stays negative between Q2 and Q3, showing that the next quarter's performance will be critical in deciding whether the combined neighborhood of Surfside & Bal Harbour has truly recovered.


Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 17.1

Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 17.1


Surfside & Bal Harbour 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 17.2

Surfside & Bal Harbour 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 17.2


Surfside & Bal Harbour: Sales Price Up to Most Expensive in Miami Overall

Price per square foot up 36.4% to $910, median sales price up 42.9% to highest in Miami. Continuing its winning streak from Q1, Surfside & Bal Harbour again posted the highest sales price of all the Miami neighborhoods in our overall study. The combined neighborhood also reports the highest percentage growth in year-over-year Price per square foot for all Miami neighborhoods, showing great value to sellers.

Consistent with the overall market trend, this combined neighborhood posted an increase in both its year-over-year Price per sq. ft. and Sales Price. The Price per Sq. Ft. went up 36.4%, increasing from $668 in Q3 last year to $910 this year (Fig. 18). The Median Sales Price went up 42.9%, from $2,100,000 in Q3 last year, to $3,000,000 this year (Fig. 16).


Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 18

Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 18


Surfside & Bal Harbour: Days on Market Flat YoY

Q3 2020 Days on Market stay flat quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. In line with the overall market trend in Miami, this combined neighborhood posts a negligible change in its year-over-year Days on Market. Luxury condos spent only 2 less days on the market compared to Q3 last year as well as Q2 this year. This is a positive indication, showing that buyers and sellers continued having positive interactions despite the pandemic.


Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 19

Surfside & Bal Harbour Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 19


Surfside & Bal Harbour: Inventory Up QoQ and YoY, But Lowest in Miami Beach

Q3 2020 Inventory closes at 41 months. Even though numbers increased quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year in this combined neighborhood -- at 41 months, inventory is still the lowest of all the Miami Beach sub-neighborhoods under review. The grouping also holds on to its tag of 'neighborhood with second-lowest inventory in overall Miami', same as the first and second quarters.

Inventory in Surfside & Bal Harbour was up 32.3% from the previous quarter's closing of 31 months and 36.7% higher than last year's 30 months (Fig. 20). Still far from reaching the ideal benchmark of 9-12 months, buyers interested in this area of Miami Beach should use this information to make the most of the opportunity by searching for top deals in Surfside or Bal Harbour condos for sale here.


Surfside & Bal Harbour Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 20

Surfside & Bal Harbour Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 20

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

If you are interested in buying or selling a condo in any of these Miami Beach neighborhoods, or would like more information about the data in our reports, please email us anytime or call (786) 655-4576.


Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Sunny Isles Beach


Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Market Summary 2Q20 - Fig. 21

Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Market Summary

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2020

44

37.5%

$2,005,000

26.7%

$804

10.0%

187

Q3-2019

32

$1,582,100

$731

178


Sunny Isles: Luxury Condo Sales Up YoY

3Q 2020 Sunny Isles Beach Sales increase 37.5% year-over-year with positive trendline. The only sub-neighborhood in Miami Beach to post year-over-year sales growth and a positive trendline, Sunny Isles Beach not only performed well in Q3 2020, but also reported a positive outlook.

Consistent with the overall market trend in Miami of sales growth, Sunny Isles Beach posted a 37.5% increase in sales volume compared to same quarter 2019 (Fig. 21). This improved momentum is also captured by the 12-month sales trendline in Fig. 22.2 that goes from being negative in Q1 and Q2 2020 to positive this third quarter.


Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 22.1

Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 22.1


Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 22.2

Sunny Isles Beach Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 22.2


Sunny Isles: Luxury Condo Price per Sq. Ft. Up YoY to Highest Since 2016

3Q 2020 Price per Square Foot up 10% to $804, Median Sales Price up 26.7% year-over-year. In line with the overall market trend in Miami, Sunny Isles Beach posts an increase in both its Price per sq. ft. and Median Sales Price for luxury condos.

The price per square foot increased 10% to $804, up from $731 in Q3 last year. Following suit, the Median Sales Price also increased 26.7% to $2,005,000, up from $1,582,100 in the same quarter 2019 (Fig. 21).

A closer look at the five-year snapshot of Sunny Isles Beach quarterly prices in Fig. 23 below, reveals that the price per sq. ft. has peaked to the highest of all the years under review – showing great value for owners or those looking to sell in Sunny Isles Beach.


Sunny Isles Beach Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 23

Sunny Isles Beach Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 23


Sunny Isles: Days on Market Up YoY

3Q 2020 Days on Market increase 5% year-over-year. In contrast with the overall Miami market trend of flat Days on Market, luxury condos in Sunny Isles Beach spent 9 more days on the market compared to Q3 last year and 79 more days compared to Q2 this year. This shows a difference in buyer and seller opinion in the sub-neighborhood, in terms of dealings.


Sunny Isles Beach Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 24

Sunny Isles Beach Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 24


Sunny Isles: Inventory Up YoY, Still Highest in Miami Beach

Q3 2020 closes with 65 months of Inventory. Consistent with the overall market trend in Miami, Sunny Isles' luxury condo Inventory increased 41.3% year-over-year, up from last year's closing of 46 months. However, good sales performance brought down the quarter-over-quarter inventory by 27.8%, an impressive decline from the previous quarter's closing of 90 months.

At 65 months, Sunny Isles still has the highest levels of inventory in Miami Beach. Being way off the 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market, buyers have a great window of opportunity to negotiate the best deals as they search Sunny Isles Beach condos for sale here.


Sunny Isles Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 25

Sunny Isles Beach Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 25

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


Miami Beach Neighborhoods: Fisher Island


3Q 2020 Fisher Island Luxury Condo Market Summary - Fig. 26

3Q 2020 Fisher Island Luxury Condo Quarterly Market Summary

Quarters

Number of Sales

% change in Sales

Median Sale Price

% change in Median Sale Price

Median Sp/Sqft

% change in Median Sp/Sqft

Median of DOM

Q3-2020

13

-7.1%

$2,000,000

-71.0%

$791

-32.4%

222

Q3-2019

14

$6,900,000

$1,170

124


Fisher Island: Luxury Condo Sales Down YoY

Q3 2020 Sales down 7.1% year-over-year, but still stable with positive trendline. Although Fisher Island posts a decline in its year-over-year sales percentage, a closer look at the volumes in Fig. 26 reveals that they are only lower by one transaction (down from 14 in 2019 to 13 in 2020). This shows that the exclusive neighborhood still had a good number of deals (higher quarter-over-quarter as well), which helps the 12-month sales trendline improve from a negative position in Q2 to a positive in Q3 (Fig. 27.2).


Fisher Island Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 27.1

Fisher Island Luxury Condo Quarterly Sales 2015-2020 - Fig. 27.1


Fisher Island Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 27.2

Fisher Island Luxury Condo 12-Month Sales with Trendline - Fig. 27.2


Fisher Island: Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot Drops to Lowest in Miami Beach

3Q 2020 Fisher Island Price/sq. ft. down 32.4% to $791, median sales price down 71% year-over-year. In one of the most unusual developments for this exclusive island, the Price per sq. ft. fell to below the $1,000 mark in Q3 ($791). This is the lowest the price the exclusive island has seen since 2016 (Fig. 28). However, we would avoid reading too much into this dip, since this is mostly due to more bottom-range luxury condos selling on the water-bound island. Further, a look at the next quarter's trends would ultimately reveal whether this is a permanent change in the island's median price per square foot of or not.

The Median Sales Price too dropped 71% year-over-year, from $6,900,000 in Q3 last year to $2,000,000 this year for the same reason mentioned above (Fig. 26).


Fisher Island Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 28

Fisher Island Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2016-2020 - Fig. 28


Fisher Island: Days on Market Up YoY 

3Q 2020 Days on Market increase 79% year-over-year. In contrast with the overall Miami market trend of flat days on market, Fisher Island's luxury condos spent 98 more days on the market compared to Q3 last year. This is the highest percentage increase in the median days on market of any Miami neighborhoods in our Miami condo market analysis.

Even on a quarter-over-quarter basis, luxury condos spent 128 more days in Q3 compared to Q2 this year.


Fisher Island Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 29

Fisher Island Quarterly Days on Market 2018-2020 – Fig. 29


Fisher Island: Inventory Up YoY, But Lower QoQ

Q3 closes with 49 months of Inventory. Consistent with the overall market trend in Miami, Fisher Island's luxury condo inventory increased 158% over September last year (19 months), but reduced 19.7% quarter-over-quarter (down from 61 months in June).

Considering inventory has been increasing pre-pandemic, peaked in June, and only now started to decrease over the third quarter, the trend has a long way to go before reaching its ideal 9-12-month benchmark of a balanced market. This puts ample choices and time in buyers' hands if they are interested in buying in this exclusive enclave. Search for available Fisher Island condos for sale here.


Fisher Island Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 30

Fisher Island Months of Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Sep. 2020 - Fig. 30

A balanced market has only 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as – no. of active listings + no. of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.


3Q 2020 Miami Beach Luxury Market Conclusion

Although we were expecting the market to take a few cycles before posting any kind of a recovery from the disruption caused by the pandemic, it is quite exciting to see the Miami Beach luxury condo market shows signs of a comeback this Q3 (just like the overall market trends in Miami).

Sales in Miami Beach were positive across the board, much like the overall trend, with the only exception of South Beach and Fisher Island. Mid-North Beach posted the highest percentage increase in year-over-year sales – making it stand out as a buyer favorite this third-quarter.

The 12-month sales trendline was quite inconsistent across neighborhoods, however, showing the diversity and differing market market dynamics for each neighborhood, and that Miami Beach still had some catching up to do in terms of sales momentum. Particularly, it will be interesting to see how South Beach sales perform in the fourth quarter of the year. 

On the price front, Miami Beach neighborhoods posted mixed trends. While the price per square foot increased year-over-year for Miami Beach, Surfside and Bal Harbour, and Sunny Isles Beach (like the overall Miami trend), it was flat in South Beach, and lower in Mid-North Beach and Fisher Island. In fact, for the first time in over 5 years, Fisher Island reported a price per square foot lower than the $1,000 mark – also the lowest in Miami Beach. A closer look at the Q4 results will only help inform whether this is a temporary shift or not. Other than that, Sunny Isles Beach provides a nice entry point into luxury condos on the beach with the second lowest price per square foot of $804 this third quarter. 

Most Miami Beach neighborhoods went against the trend of a flat year-over-year Days on Market seen in the overall Miami report. Only Surfside & Bal Harbour with its flat year-over-year trend and Mid-North Beach with its decline, posted a positive of keeping buyer-seller communication intact over the course of the year.

As expected, inventory was up across the board in Miami Beach, like overall Miami, due to the loss of momentum caused in Q2, which usually is the best quarter of the year. Sunny Isles Beach continued carrying the heaviest inventory in Miami Beach for the third quarter in a row. 

With the market already showing signs of a recovery, as most of the pent-up demand from Q1 and Q2 came through, we expect more sales momentum to come in from:

  • high-tax states
  • those looking to escape extremely cold winters, and 
  • those with more flexibility to work from anywhere with the new work from home norms that give them the liberty to migrate to a condo with ocean views.

Also, as travel restrictions ease up, we expect more buyer interest to flow through. The only wild card to watch out for are the Presidential elections this November that have historically been known to cause buyer hesitation. However, with Miami Beach being a global attraction and buyer-favorite, we expect the months of inventory to reduce further over the next two quarters, bringing them back sooner to pre-COVID levels.

Metrics

Overall Miami

Miami Beach

South Beach

Mid-North Beach 

Surfside & Bal Harbour

Sunny Isles Beach

Fisher Island

Sales

Up

Up

Down

Up

Flat

Up

Down

Trendline

Flat

Flat-ish (Slightly Negative)

Down

Down

Down

Up

Up

Price per Sq. Ft

Up

Up

Flat

Down

Up

Up

Down

Days on Market

Flat

Up

Up

Down

Flat

Up

Up

Inventory

Up

Up

Up

Up

Up

Up

Up


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Questions or comments with the stats? Interested in buying a Miami Beach condo in one of these neighborhoods? Please contact Sep at sniakan (at) hbroswell.com or call 305-725-0566.


Cover photo: @victo_orh
Contact Sep Niakan
Founder, Condoblackbook.com & Owner/Broker, HB Roswell Realty
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