Boosted by high season energy, Q2 2023 closed on a robust note – bringing stability to Miami's luxury condo market, just as predicted in our Q1 2023 Luxury Housing Market report.

Based on data from our exclusive quarterly Miami real estate market reports, the second quarter of 2023 showed stable sales, positive price gains, and shrinking inventory, resulting in Miami's luxury condo market shifting into a balanced position over Q2 2023. This helps fortify buyer-seller confidence in our dynamic housing market that has been bucking negative national housing trends since last year, by staying in the positive for steady growth and expansion.

Overall, sales of Miami Luxury Condos kept their momentum as high season started to came to a close in Q2 2023. Even though numbers did not touch the astronomical highs witnessed during the second quarter of 2021 and 2022, the market did maintain a robust pace, and had increased sales over Q1 2023. Brickell emerged as the most popular market for buyers, as it closed with the least negative impact on year-over-year sales.

Price per Square Foot increased by 2.8% year-over-year – again offering sellers great value for their luxury properties and giving buyers the opportunity to find proven and valuable investments.

Fisher Island maintained its status as the most expensive zip code in Miami with a price of $1,803/SF. On the other hand, Downtown Miami continued as the best entry point for buyers into luxury condos, affording the lowest price per square foot at $743 for all the neighborhoods under review in Q2 2023.

Further, as anticipated, Inventory shrank down to 12 months by the end of June, owing to high-season energy, after having peaked to 19 months in February earlier this year. This helped bring the market into equilibrium and level the playing field for sellers and buyers/investors in terms of value and opportunity in Q2 2023.

Read on for a detailed analysis of the quarterly data on how sales, prices, days on market, and inventory responded to buyer demand and more in our full-length Q2 2023 Miami Luxury Condo Market Report:

This luxury condo market report only includes data for properties priced $1 million and above, and covers the neighborhoods of Greater Downtown Miami (including Edgewater, Brickell, and Downtown), Miami Beach (inclusive of South Beach, Surfside, Bal Harbour, Sunny Isles Beach, and Fisher Island), as well as Coral Gables and Coconut Grove.

Q2 2023 - Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market Highlights

• Q2 2023 sales volume outperforms pre-pandemic years (2020 and earlier), again.
• Sales dipped 45.1% against the previous year's phenomenal high (424 in Q2-23 vs 772 in Q2-22).
• Brickell emerged as the most resilient market with the least negative impact on year-over-year sales (-40%), as all neighborhoods reported a decline in Q2.
• Overall Prices reported positive year-over-year trends – Price per Square Foot was up 2.8%, even as Median Sales Price remained flat.
• Median Overall Price per Square Foot closed at $950/square foot.
• Fisher Island kept its title as the "most expensive neighborhood" in Q2 2023, reporting a median price of $1,803/square foot.
• Luxury condos in Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (collectively) offered maximum value to sellers with the highest percentage gain (32%) in year-over-year Price per Square Foot.
• All three segments of age of condos (freshly-built, mid, and classic condos) reported lower year-over-year sales, but higher volume compared to pre-pandemic years (2020 and prior).
• Sellers continued receiving maximum return on investment (ROI) for new construction condos built 2015-2023.
• Overall Days on Market up 28.6% year-over-year.
• Surfside and Bal Harbour (combined) emerged as Miami's fastest-selling market, taking only 40 days to sell.
• Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (combined) reported the lowest months of inventory (8 months) of all Miami neighborhoods under review, closely followed by South Beach plus Surfside and Bal Harbour (11 months each).
• Q2 2023 closed as a balanced market.

Table of Contents

1. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Trends
2. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales
3. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
4. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Sales Price, Price/Square Foot
5. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales Price Trends by Building Year
6. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Days on Market Trends
7. Miami Neighborhood Trends - Days on Market
8. Overall Miami Luxury Condo Inventory Trends
9. Conclusion
10. Where does the Miami Luxury Condo Market go from Here?
    
    

Overall Luxury Condo Sales Down YoY

Q2 Sales Down -45.1% Year-over-year — 12-month Sales Trendline Positive

As predicted in our Q1 2023 Luxury Housing Report, Miami's luxury condo market received a boost with high season (typically spring) kicking in. Although sales weren't as astronomically high as noted in outlier years like 2021 and 2022 (where new records were set owing to exceptional buyer demand), Miami's luxury condo market continued at a robust pace, demonstrating great health in comparison to declining national housing trends.

Below are the key luxury condo sales statistics for Q2 2023 (Fig. 1.2):

Quarterly Sales Comparison — Overall Miami Luxury Condo Market

• Q2 2023 vs Q1 2023. Sales increased 12.2% quarter-over-quarter, up from 378 sales in the previous quarter (Fig. 1).
• Q2 2023 vs Q2 2022. Sales dipped -45.1% to 424, down from the previous year's phenomenally high volume of 772 sales (Fig. 1.1).
• What's worth noting is that Q2 2022 was an above average cycle, reporting exceptionally high sales volume. So, even though Q2 2023 numbers might seem weak compared to a year-ago, a look at pre-pandemic years reveals that the market managed to keep a healthy momentum and report stable growth, with peak season delivering favorable results. (Fig. 1.2)
• A closer look at the quarterly sales in Fig. 1.2 further reveals that Q2 2023 volumes outperformed those noted in pre-pandemic years (2020 and prior) – creating a record of sorts, while demonstrating how Miami's luxury condo market has expanded over the past two years.

Overall Miami Quarterly Luxury Condo Sales 2015 - 2023 - Fig. 1.2

Looking into the Monthly Sales chart (Fig. 1.3), volumes expectedly closed lower compared to 2022's record-setting highs, while the market shifted into a balanced position as high season came to a close:

• April 2023 closed with 113 sales compared to the previous year's 267 sales for the same month.
• May closed with 167 sales versus 281 in the same month of 2022.
• June closed with 144 sales, down from the previous year's 224 sales for the same month.

With momentum gradually building up over the first two quarters of 2023, the 12-month Sales Trendline of Fig. 1.4 shifted back to a positive trajectory after two quarters of posting a negative curve. This shows that the market is most likely to continue functioning at a healthy pace over the next two quarters, even as sales are projected to pace down over the third quarter (a trend confirmed by historical data).

Taking all of the above into account, as luxury condo market experts, we expect the Miami real estate market to stay in good shape through the end of the year, with ample buyer demand keeping inventory levels in check.

Overall Miami Monthly Luxury Condo Sales Jan. 2016 to June. 2023 - Fig. 1.3

Overall Miami 12-Month Luxury Condo Sales with Trendline - Fig. 1.4

Q2 2023 Miami Neighborhood Trends - Number of Sales

Q2 2023 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Sales Trends (Fig. 1.5)

• Winner: Brickell reported the least negative impact on year-over-year sales (-40%) - emerging as the most resilient sub-market of Q2 2023.

• Down: All other Miami neighborhoods also reported a decline in year-over-year sales:
• South Beach (-41%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour (-41%)
• Downtown Miami (-42%)
• Sunny Isles Beach (-45%)
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables (-48%)
• Edgewater (-52%)
• Mid/North Beach (-55%)
• Fisher Island (-58%)

More in-depth analysis and details are available in dedicated reports for Greater Downtown Miami, Miami Beach and the Barrier Islands, plus Coral Gables & Coconut Grove.

Miami Neighborhood Luxury Condo Sales Comparison 2Q23-over-2Q22 - Fig. 1.5

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Prices Up

Q2 2023 Price per Square Foot up 2.8% at $950 — Median Sales Price flat year-over-year

Closing the quarter at a median Price per Square Foot of $950/square foot, Miami's luxury condo market reported stable price growth – a nod to its overall strength. The key price statistics for Q2 2023 are:

• Q2 2023 vs Q2 2022. Price per Square Foot increased by 2.8% year-over-year, up from $925 in Q2 of the previous year to $950 for the same quarter of 2023 (Fig. 1.1).
• Q2 2023 vs Q2 2022. Median Sales Price stayed mostly flat, adjusting slightly by -2.3%, down from $1,637,500 in Q2 last year to $1,599,500 for the same quarter this year (Fig. 1).
• Q2 2023 vs Q1 2023. Price per Square Foot stayed mostly flat, adjusting marginally by -1.4%, down from a peak of $964 in Q1 2023 to $950 in Q2 2023 (Fig. 1).
• A look at the 5-year snapshot of Quarterly luxury condo prices below (Fig. 2.1), shows that the Price per Square Foot closed in the higher ranges in Q2 2023 – offering sellers exceptional value in a market assumed to have reached its peak in the previous year.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Price per Sq. Ft. 2017-2023 - Fig. 2.1

Q2 2023 Miami Neighborhood Price Trends

Median Price per Square Foot (Fig. 2.2)

• Winner: Fisher Island held onto its title as the most expensive neighborhood in Miami, fetching a median price of $1,803/sq. ft.
• Winner: Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (collectively) reported the highest percentage growth (32%) in year-over-year Price per Square Foot – offering sellers the best value for their luxury condos this second quarter.
• Up: Edgewater was the only other neighborhood in Q2 2023 to report an increase (of 8%, up to $958) in its year-over-year Price per Square Foot.
• Flat: Neighborhoods reporting a marginal change in year-over-year Price per Square Foot:
• Brickell: $838/SF (1%)
• Downtown Miami: $743/SF (1%)
• Sunny Isles Beach: $890/SF (-1%)
• Fisher Island: $1,803/SF (-1%)
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decline in year-over-year Price per Square Foot:
• Mid/North Beach: $1,007/SF (-5%)
• South Beach: $1,115/SF (-14%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour: $1,343/SF (-22%)

Miami Neighborhood 2Q23-over-2Q22 Median Price per Square Foot Comparison - Fig. 2.2

Median Sales Price (Fig. 2.3)

• Winner: Fisher Island reported the highest percentage growth (20%) in year-over-year Median Sales Price this second quarter.
• Winner: Fisher Island remained the most expensive zip code in Miami and South Florida – an undisputed winner with a (median) price tag of $7.5 million.
• Up: Other neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year Median Sales Price:
• Coconut Grove & Coral Gables: $1.9 million (14%)
• Brickell: $1.3 million (5%)
• Flat: Edgewater (2%) and Sunny Isles Beach (0%) posted a negligible change in their year-over-year Median Sales Price.
• Down: Neighborhoods reporting a decline in year-over-year Median Sales Price:
• Mid/North Beach: $1.5 million (-8%)
• South Beach: $1.5 million (-13%)
• Downtown Miami: $1.2 million (-15%)
• Surfside and Bal Harbour: $2.9 million (-16%)

Miami Neighborhood 2Q23-over-2Q22 Median Sales Price Comparison - Fig. 2.3

Q2 2023 Overall Miami Sales Price Trends by Building Year — Mixed

Below is a detailed analysis of how Miami luxury condo buildings performed in Q2 2023 on the basis of their age of construction, categorized as new construction condo buildings (2015-2021), buildings built from 2000-2014, and pre-2000 condo buildings.

• New Construction Buildings reported a decline in year-over-year stats but higher volumes compared to pre-pandemic years. They also reported the highest year-over-year price gains (14.5%) of all 3 segments.
• Buildings Dated 2000-2014 continued posting the highest sales volume (175) out of all 3 segments under review, along with prices peaking to $922/SF.
• Condos Built before 2000 echoed the overall sales trend, while closing Q2 2023 with a higher year-over-year price of $882/SF.

Miami New Construction Condos Built 2015-2023

With 138 sales, this segment posted a 50% decline in year-over-year sales, but 21% increase in quarter-over-quarter sales, reflective of high season energy (Fig. 3.1). Further echoing the overall market mood, sales for Miami's freshly-built luxury condo segment may have declined year-over-year but reported a significant increase compared to pre-pandemic quarters (Q4 2020 and before) - indicative of a healthy market pace.

Note: Anecdotally, we are seeing exceptionally high demand for pre-construction luxury condos. Most projects are selling out before shovels hit the ground. Most of these pre-construction sales are not recorded in centralized databases, and thus are not included in our quarterly sales data and reports.

To see current Miami Pre-Construction Projects in development, see our Miami Condo Development Guide. Or search for listed Miami pre-construction condo homes.

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales for Buildings Dated 2015-2023 - Fig. 3.1

Fig. 3.2 shows this newly-built segment closed the quarter with a $1,152 Price per Square Foot – perpetually the highest of all 3 segments under review. Considering newer, more luxurious condo product keeps getting added every year to the market, it is quite expected of this segment to command the highest prices. The Price per Square Foot for this freshly-built segment was up 14.5% year-over-year as well as 5% higher quarter-over-quarter (from $1,097/SF).

Miami New Construction Luxury Condo Price per Square Foot (Buildings Built 2015-2023) - Fig. 3.2

Miami Luxury Condos Built 2000-2014

Almost in line with the overall market trend, luxury condo sales in this segment declined year-over-year, but stayed flat quarter-over-quarter. With 175 sales, the segment posted a 45% decline in year-over-year numbers (Fig. 3.3), but still maintained its growth against pre-pandemic quarters (Q4 2020 and earlier).

Again, with the highest sales volume out of all 3 segments under review, buildings built 2000-2014 continued being the most popular among buyers in Q2 2023.

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.3

Fig. 3.4 shows this segment (built 2000-2014) closed the quarter with a peak price of $922/sq. ft. - giving sellers the best value to date for their luxury properties. The Price per Square Foot for the segment stayed mostly flat, increasing only marginally (0.9%) quarter-over-quarter as well as year-over-year (0.4%).

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Price per Sq. Ft. (Buildings Dated 2000-2014) - Fig. 3.4

Miami Luxury Condos Built Before 2000

With 110 sales, this classic segment of Miami luxury condos (built pre-2000) posted a 25% increase in quarter-over-quarter numbers but a 38% decline in year-over-year volume - reflecting the overall sales trend of Q2 2023 (Fig. 3.5). 

Quarterly Overall Miami Luxury Condo Sales (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.5

Closing the quarter at a high-ranging price of $882 per square foot, prices for this classic segment were up 6.5% quarter-over-quarter and 5.6% higher year-over-year.

Overall Miami Luxury Condos Price per Sq. Ft.  (Buildings Dated 1921-1999) - Fig. 3.6

Overall Miami Luxury Condos — Days on Market Down QoQ, But Up YoY

Days on Market down -5.3% quarter-over-quarter. As the market moved through high season this second quarter, the Days on Market (DOM) statistic expectedly declined quarter-over-quarter. In Q2 2023, luxury condos spent 4 fewer days on the market compared to Q1 this year. At 72 days, luxury properties continued selling at a healthy pace, indicating solid buyer-seller communication.

On a year-over-year basis, luxury condos spent 16 more days on market compared to Q2 2022 – increasing 28.6% year-over-year from one of its lowest points last year. What's important to note here is that Q2 2022 reported the lowest DOM ever, setting a record for the last five years, so it would be quite normal for the DOM to increase as the market returns to a more stable pace.

Overall Miami Luxury Condo Quarterly Days on Market 2018 - 2023 - Fig. 4.1

Q2 2023 Miami Neighborhood Days on Market Trends

Q2 2023 Year-over-Year Neighborhood Days on Market Trends (Fig. 4.2)

• Winner: Luxury condos in the combined neighborhood of Surfside and Bal Harbour spent only 40 days on the market – making it the fastest-selling sub-market of Q2 2023 with a 72% decline in year-over-year stats.
• Flat: Neighborhoods reporting a negligible change in year-over-year Days on Market:
• Sunny Isles Beach: 71 days (-1%)
• Mid/North Beach: 71 days (-1%)
• Up: Neighborhoods reporting an increase in year-over-year Days on Market:
• Downtown Miami: 68 days (9%)
• Edgewater: 78 days (28%)
• South Beach: 78 days (30%)
• Brickell: 84 days (81%)
• Coconut Grove and Coral Gables: 58 days (167%)
• Fisher Island: 153 days (378%)

Miami Neighborhood 2Q23-Over-2Q22 Days on Market Comparison - Fig. 4.2

Q2 2023 Luxury Condo Inventory at 12 months — Balanced Market

Q2 2023 closed with 12 months of inventory. As anticipated in our Q1 2023 Luxury Housing Report, high season (typically Spring) removed a chunk of inventory from the market – bringing the market into equilibrium and making it equally attractive for buyers as well as sellers.

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, inventory was down from 16 months in March this year to 12 months in June 2023 – reporting a 25% decline.
• On a year-over-year basis, inventory was up from 6 months in June 2022 – reporting a 100% increase from one of a record low a year ago (Fig. 5.1), and moving the market into a balanced position. 

Considering an ideal market should only hold 9 to 12 months of inventory, at 12 months, the statistic fell into a balanced range. As expected, with the market moving through high season during the second quarter, inventory levels normalized after peaking in February 2023.

As real estate experts, we expect healthy buyer demand to keep inventory levels in check and keep the market balanced through the remainder of the year.

With the luxury condo market now in equilibrium, buyers and sellers can move with confidence, safe in the knowledge that the market brings them equal value and opportunity. We suggest sellers looking to exit to list their property with a bit of price flexibility in mind, but knowing prices are at an all time high compared to the past several years.

On the other hand, buyers can still invest in Miami, since we continue bucking national housing trends (of declining market health) and a healthy amount of inventory makes a good variety of housing options accessible within your preferred price range.

Overall Miami Months of Luxury Condo Inventory from Mar. 2019 to Jun. 2023 - Fig. 5.1

A balanced market has about 9-12 months of inventory. The months of inventory are calculated as the number of active listings + number of pending listings divided by the average number of deals in the last 6 months.

Miami Overall Luxury Condo Market - Q2 2023 Conclusion

Stable sales, price gains, and lower inventory shifts Miami housing market to a balanced position.

Aligning perfectly with our predictions for Q1 2023, Miami's luxury condo market accelerated pace during Spring (historically known to be high season for Miami's cyclical market) to lower inventory and bring the market to equilibrium, where buyers and sellers have equal opportunity at the negotiations table.

Even as year-over-year sales dropped by half, compared with an outlier of a year in 2022, the market stayed in positive territory with volumes higher than any pre-pandemic year (2020 and earlier). Add to that decent price gains and the 12-month Sales Trendline shifting back into a positive trajectory, and you have a luxury Miami housing market poised to keep its momentum and offer ample room for stable growth.

In Q2 2023, Brickell emerged as the most resilient market in all of Miami by reporting the least negative impact on year-over-year sales volume. All other Miami neighborhoods reported further declines in year-over-year sales. However, with peak season in full swing, the 12-month sales trendline for all Miami neighborhoods under our review turned positive – indicating good growth prospects even though the third quarter is historically known to pace down.

On the price front, most Miami neighborhoods either reported year-over-year gains or flat property values – indicating most sellers received good value for their luxury condo investments. Of all the neighborhoods under review, luxury condos in Coconut Grove and Coral Gables (collectively) offered the highest year-over-year price gain (32%). Considering this is one of the more modest luxury condo sub-markets in Miami, we will dive deeper into this jump in our individual market report for the combined neighborhood.

Buildings built 2000-2014 remained the most popular choice among buyers, posting the highest sales volume of all 3 segments under review (newly-built to classic). On the other hand, the freshly built luxury condo buildings (built 2015-2023) afforded the highest value to sellers with a 14.5% gain in year-over-year prices.

The Days on Market statistic reported a year-over-year increase, but declined quarter-over-quarter. This was quite expected since 2021 and 2022 were above average performers, reporting record momentum with each passing quarter. So, as the market paced down to a more normal dynamic, the days on market were bound to increase. Still, at 72 days, luxury condos sold at a healthy pace during Q2 2023.

Surfside and Bal Harbour (collectively) emerged as the fastest-selling neighborhoods of Q2 2023, with luxury condos taking only 40 days to sell (on median).

As anticipated, a robust high season pushed inventory down into its balanced range of 9 to 12 months. With 12 months of inventory, Miami's luxury condo market offers equal value and opportunity to investors as well as sellers. As real estate experts, we expect steady momentum to keep inventory levels low through to the end of 2023.

For buyers or investors looking to browse the kind of inventory available on the market, you can search for all currently listed luxury condos for sale in Miami here or contact us directly.

Miami's Luxury Condo Market Prediction 2023: Where Does the Market Go From Here?

Along with Miami's reputation getting a boost with reports such as The Economist ranking us as the #1 of the World's Top Ten Thriving Cities and a 2023 Knight Frank report cementing our status as the leading market for luxury branded properties in the U.S., we, as real estate experts, expect the following factors to influence buyer decision and market performance over the second half of 2023:

• Diminished Impact of High Interest Rates. Considering cash is king in Miami's real estate market, where 2 out of every 3 foreign buyers pay in cash as per a 2022 report by MiamiRealtor, we expect high interest rates to not be a major disruptor in buying decisions.
• Strong Economic Indicators. With employment rates and wages expected to grow further as businesses continue flocking to our pro-business, low corporate tax environment, we expect steady demand from business magnates to well-compensated employees to continue fueling market momentum.
• Branded Luxury Paradise. With a surge in branded projects such as the Bentley Residences, The St. Regis Residences, Edition Residences, or Dolce & Gabbana Residence bringing exceptional housing options to Miami, we expect more and more well-heeled buyers and ultra-high-net-worth investors to park their capital here as they recognize the potential for lucrative returns and incomparable lifestyle.
• Unparalleled Lifestyle. Given Miami's newfound status as the #2 Happiest and Healthiest City in the U.S. as per the annual Mindbody Wellness Index, coupled with the popularity of our sugar-sand beaches, nature-dominated landscape, and fitness-oriented lifestyle options, we expect more wellness-focused individuals to put roots here. And with Lionel Messi having recently moved here to play with Inter Miami FC, don't discount the #MessiEffect.
• Low Inventory Levels. Even with Miami's pre-construction market being in overdrive, with more new construction projects in the pipeline than ever before, we expect steady buyer demand to keep inventory levels in check and the market balanced for the next couple of cycles, as most new projects are likely to be delivered in the next 2-4 years.

If you'd like more details on the data in our exclusive Condo Blackbook quarterly luxury condo market reports, please send us an email or call us anytime.

 

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Photo by Tory Brown